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Is the 49er Championship Window Closing?

  • Oscar
  • Hall of Fame
  • Posts: 10,234
Originally posted by oldman9er:
Originally posted by Oscar:
And right now J. Smith and others are declining.

... How is Justin declining? From what I see and read, he is at the very top of his game and in terrific physical condition. I understand that Justin is 32 yrs old, and that many DL wear down and decline in their 30's. Justin may or may not in the near future, but it seems to me that with his work ethic, he can be a productive starter for another 3 years. Maybe more... Bryant Young played till he was 35, and he had a steel rod inserted in his leg from a brutal injury. Reggie White played while 39 yrs old.

Saying that Justin is declining as of now... I'm not understanding why you think that. Thinking that our coaches are not good enough to find a youngster to develop for 2-4 yrs as his successor. ( I know you aren't outright saying that, but you do rather suggest it ) Good players get old and decline... but good coaches find and develop young replacements that can step in and keep the position strong. Exactly what kinds of breakdowns do you envision for us down the road? Do you doubt that we will win our division more than twice in the next 5 years? Think we will fall back to a below .500 team for a couple of years straight?

Justin Smith is, by far, them most dominant 3-4 DL in the NFL. He had a remarkable year last year, his best ever. In fact, it was one of the best years ever for a DL. He will continue to play at a high level, but not at the heights he played this year. Hence, a decline. It's like what happened to Peyton and Brady when they broke the single season TD record. Yes, they continued to play at a high level, but throwing THAT many TDs again? Not likely, and in fact, it didn't happen.

And I do not think the team will be able to replace Smith with a comparable player. He's too good. You don't get many Justin Smith's. Sure, someone might play the position well, but they won't dominate like Smith does.

As for the window, I'm saying we have a window, barring injury or something catastrophic, for maybe two more years. We have the division next year, but the year after things get hazier. For people to say that the window is just opening or that we have a good 5 years, well I think that's wishful thinking. I WANT the window to be open that long because that would be awesome. I just don't think that's the case.

Further supporting my claim is Bill Barnwell of Grantland: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8096893/the-insanity-crowning-team-next-great-thing-nfl-top-100-players-list

Both the 2010 Falcons and 2011 49ers were 13-3, a record that's too good to consistently keep up. During the era of the 16-game season, 32 teams have gone 13-3. In the year after their 13-3 record, those teams have averaged 9.3 wins.2 Not one has won 14 games the following year, and while three managed to hold on to their 13-3 record, nine weren't even able to produce a .500 season. Every single one of those teams had Super Bowl aspirations after their big year, but only two (the 1993 Cowboys and 1997 Broncos) followed their 13-3 seasons with a Super Bowl win. You can bet that plenty of them thought they were one piece away from clinching a Super Bowl title, but that wasn't the case. A lot of things have to go right for a team to finish 13-3. Too many things, in fact, to repeat the feat very often.
Can we define "Open Window?" My definition would be a team that has a chance to win it all every year because they have great coaching, great system and viable players at each position. When Eddie D hired Walsh as HC he created a window that lasted beyond Walsh's tenure, into Seifert's. The window closed when Eddie was forced to sell the team and Policy put the team into cap hell. That was a seventeen year window. The experts would often decide the 9ers were on the way down just before they won another Super Bowl...so much for pundits.

The current regime is very similar except for Baalke's (and Marathe) being very conservative with contracts. This seems to indicate they will have an open window for the foreseeable future. It would be nice if they could win the Super Bowl this year to make my theory more credible!
Originally posted by Oscar:
Originally posted by oldman9er:
Originally posted by Oscar:
And right now J. Smith and others are declining.

... How is Justin declining? From what I see and read, he is at the very top of his game and in terrific physical condition. I understand that Justin is 32 yrs old, and that many DL wear down and decline in their 30's. Justin may or may not in the near future, but it seems to me that with his work ethic, he can be a productive starter for another 3 years. Maybe more... Bryant Young played till he was 35, and he had a steel rod inserted in his leg from a brutal injury. Reggie White played while 39 yrs old.

Saying that Justin is declining as of now... I'm not understanding why you think that. Thinking that our coaches are not good enough to find a youngster to develop for 2-4 yrs as his successor. ( I know you aren't outright saying that, but you do rather suggest it ) Good players get old and decline... but good coaches find and develop young replacements that can step in and keep the position strong. Exactly what kinds of breakdowns do you envision for us down the road? Do you doubt that we will win our division more than twice in the next 5 years? Think we will fall back to a below .500 team for a couple of years straight?

Justin Smith is, by far, them most dominant 3-4 DL in the NFL. He had a remarkable year last year, his best ever. In fact, it was one of the best years ever for a DL. He will continue to play at a high level, but not at the heights he played this year. Hence, a decline. It's like what happened to Peyton and Brady when they broke the single season TD record. Yes, they continued to play at a high level, but throwing THAT many TDs again? Not likely, and in fact, it didn't happen.

And I do not think the team will be able to replace Smith with a comparable player. He's too good. You don't get many Justin Smith's. Sure, someone might play the position well, but they won't dominate like Smith does.

As for the window, I'm saying we have a window, barring injury or something catastrophic, for maybe two more years. We have the division next year, but the year after things get hazier. For people to say that the window is just opening or that we have a good 5 years, well I think that's wishful thinking. I WANT the window to be open that long because that would be awesome. I just don't think that's the case.

Further supporting my claim is Bill Barnwell of Grantland: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8096893/the-insanity-crowning-team-next-great-thing-nfl-top-100-players-list

Both the 2010 Falcons and 2011 49ers were 13-3, a record that's too good to consistently keep up. During the era of the 16-game season, 32 teams have gone 13-3. In the year after their 13-3 record, those teams have averaged 9.3 wins.2 Not one has won 14 games the following year, and while three managed to hold on to their 13-3 record, nine weren't even able to produce a .500 season. Every single one of those teams had Super Bowl aspirations after their big year, but only two (the 1993 Cowboys and 1997 Broncos) followed their 13-3 seasons with a Super Bowl win. You can bet that plenty of them thought they were one piece away from clinching a Super Bowl title, but that wasn't the case. A lot of things have to go right for a team to finish 13-3. Too many things, in fact, to repeat the feat very often.

Who are the others declining? Gore, Goodwin... Moss? Smith is key, but he is just one of eleven guys on defense. There is some talent waiting to prove themselves behind him, and while they might not be as dominant as Smith, the drop off in play shouldnt be to large. Dobbs, Tuku, and RJF will have been understudies for years at that point and know the responsibilities of the position.
Closing! Closing you say! Are you saying the window is CLOSING! No more negative waves! Defeatists will be shot to improve the attitude of the group! The beatings will continue until moral improves! Closing closing my fat white ass! his party is just getting started!
Originally posted by GolittaCamper:
Closing! Closing you say! Are you saying the window is CLOSING! No more negative waves! Defeatists will be shot to improve the attitude of the group! The beatings will continue until moral improves! Closing closing my fat white ass! his party is just getting started!

Big Mike? Is that you? To the sleds men!
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by GolittaCamper:
Closing! Closing you say! Are you saying the window is CLOSING! No more negative waves! Defeatists will be shot to improve the attitude of the group! The beatings will continue until moral improves! Closing closing my fat white ass! his party is just getting started!

Big Mike? Is that you? To the sleds men!

On 1st Down... We'll run right at 'em.
On 2nd Down... We'll run right at 'em.
On 3rd Down... We'll run a draw (they'll never see that coming on 3rd and 8)

Not sure who said AJ was an iffy pick, but gosh, guys, this is not even TC and he is being discussed as a bust already, because he dropped some balls. Heck a kid from Mississippi Valley State had trouble catching balls his first half of the season, did better and then went on to become the GOAT WR, and is ranked right up there w/ Montana as one of the greatest football players of all time. Let's not be so fast to call AJ a bust. Slow start? You bet. Bust? Give him at least half a season. Good news? He really doesn't even have to start.

On another note, our receiver with the most catches, most YAC , most 3rd down conversions, and most yrds in RZ is going to be....yup, LaMichael. That was a sleeper pick which tips the hand of Coach, who is going to a quick toss or pitch to LaMichael or 3rd downs, maybe `1st or 2nd at times. Let AJ work into it. And please, no more AJ is a bust. Not even preseason guys.
[ Edited by pasodoc9er on Jun 27, 2012 at 8:22 PM ]
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Not sure who said AJ was an iffy pick, but gosh, guys, this is not even TC and he is being discussed as a bust already, because he dropped some balls. Heck a kid from Mississippy Valley State had trouble catching balls his first half of the season, did better and then went on to become the GOAT WR, and is ranked right up there w/ Montana as one of the greatest football players of all time. Let's not be so fast to call AJ a bust. Slow start? You bet. Bust? Give him at least half a season. Good news? He really doesn't even have to start.

On another note, our receiver with the most catches, most YAC , most 3rd down conversions, and most yrds in RZ is going to be....yup, LaMichael. That was a sleeper pick which tips the hand of Coach, who is going to a quick toss or pitch to LaMichael or 3rd downs, maybe `1st or 2nd at times. Let AJ work into it. And please, no more AJ is a bust. Not even preseason guys.

Harbaugh's comment regarding LaMichael James after the draft: At Stanford we couldn't keep him out of the end zone. Even though we knew he was going to get the ball, he still scored against us.

He is an incredible RZ weapon...agree with you there Pasodoc!
^ all LMJ has to do is run behind Alex Boone and Davis... opponents won't even be able to FIND him in time to stop the impressive leg surge that LMJ gets for such a lil dude!

Our window is open for as long as we can keep Harbaalke
Originally posted by susweel:
geez I hope not, it just finally cracked open after being boarded up for a decade plus.

Last year was no fluke. Baalke/Harbaugh tandem will be together for a long time and bringing us championships. I sincerely hope that Harbaugh and Baalke become the longest tenured HC/GM in history. Would love to have a HC to stay for over 10 years. Would be awesome!

But this thing just started baby!!!



As long as Harbaugh and Baalke can keep the core together, draft well, the window will never be closed
no way, too young and too talented. We've got a good 6 years
What has broken up most SB teams, moreso than anything else? Not managing the player-value/$$ ratio. Besides being astute talent choosers, B&H have managed to keep the salary cap manageable, with a tip of the cap to Paarag. A guy I do not respect has managed to do the same in NE, but bellicheat does not have the horses he once had. Besides, he cheats. Our guys do it the old fashioned way...they earn it. As for the window, agree completely with posters above who put our window open at least 6 yrs assuming B&H stay put. I can't see them going elsewhere. They got a great thing going again, with a balanced player-value/$$ team, together with superior talent selection and ultra-superior coaching. Last yr Coach was just trying to catch up. Watch and drool this yr when he actually can use his playbook.

One other thing, and that is Coach KNOWS where to play who in which spot. Think about that. Just having the players and not putting them in the right slot doesn't cut it. A lot of poorer coaches do exactly that. Difference for the 9ers is we are LOADED. 4 in 6 guys, 4 in 6. (4 more SBs in next 6 yrs). I really think Harbaugh can do it.
Harbaugh pried and propped the championship window open with his big stick. Harbaugh 'bout dem bowches!