Analysis of the AJ Jenkins Pick (AJ Is a Range/Speed Specimen) | Page 9

nickbradley · 2012-04-30T08:51:29-07:00

Clearly, Trent Baalke concluded that the 49ers lacked elite speed and explosiveness on offense, resulting in the picks of AJ Jenkins at #30 and LaMichael James at #61. James is a consensus home run pick, but its a bit unclear why Jenkins was taken over Stephen Hill, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick, and Alshon Jeffery -- all rated ahead of Jenkins. So what I did is analyze measurables of the Top 10 WR prospects for height, weight, size, speed, vertical, arm length, and broad jump ability. Its linked below. 'spheroidal range' and 'spheroidal/speed' is designed to measure the "catch radius" of the receiver and speed. Since a lower speed is better, dividing catch range by speed gives you a nice measurable. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmEu1DDN514kdFZoX0QzRlpFYllFNm82MjQtOVl2S2c The first thing that stands out is that Stephen Hill is perhaps one of greatest physically gifted WR prospects we've seen in years -- at least since the other Georgia Tech WRs. However, there are major issues with his ability to actually play the WR position in the NFL...he's not a very good wide receiver. But when we look outside of Hill, we see something Amazing: AJ Jenkins has the best vertical:speed ratio in the draft and the best broad:speed ratio in the draft...outside of the freak Hill (who can't play WR). He outscored Floyd, Jeffery, and Blackmon on these measures. In addition, he's a great WR. His only weak spot is strength and weight, which he plans to address this summer...I THINK WE GOT A STEAL. Based on the data, AJ Jenkins is significantly underweight for his frame — its backed by the numbers. I don't want to totally geek out, but you can see how 'filled out' a player is by dividing weight by (height + arm length); It'd be best to divide muscle mass by (height + arm length), but I don't have that data. ** But what you find if you do divide weight by (height + arms) is that Jenkins is unusually undersized. Here is the data for the ratios: Michael Floyd – 2.04 Alshon Jeffery – 2.00 Brian Quick – 2.00 Stephen Hill – 1.97 Mohamed Sanu – 1.96 Justin Blackmon – 1.96 Kendall Wright – 1.95 Rueben Randle – 1.94 Chris Givens – 1.94 A.J. Jenkins - 1.81 As you can see, Michael Floyd is completely 'filled out' – the guy is stout and physical — he is mature. Jeffery and Quick are mature as well – while guys like Blackmon are average. AJ Jenkins, on the other hand, is two standard deviations away from the mean — he's very very underdeveloped. Getting up to an average ratio of 1.95 for w/(h+a) or 2.82 for w/h – you're looking at about 205 pounds or so. I think the dude is 200 lbs at training camp. So, the 49ers drafted a guy that they figured they could throw in the weight room and turn into a top 10 top 15 talent!

May 1, 2012 at 12:39 AM

#121

nw9erfan
Veteran
Posts: 1,497

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Nope, doesn't matter to the OP.

Truth is, Hill like any WR coming from a non-pro style offense will have a steep learning curve...which is not unique for college WRs. It doesn't mean they can't succeed, it just means they may not contribute as quickly as others who have run the route-tree, can get in and out of breaks quickly and understand the nuances of the pro passing game.

If they have the right mix of size/speed/athleticism, core WR skills, desire and smarts, they will be fine.
Demarius Thomas had as many receptions in 1 year than Hill had in his whole college career...

Thomas was much more pro ready coming out than Hill is...

Hill is a great athlete with huge potential and he has great work ethic...

The 49ers wanted a guy who can contribute asap, not one who has a higher bust potential and who won't contribute for a while...

You speak truth.....

May 1, 2012 at 12:47 AM

#122

nw9erfan
Veteran
Posts: 1,497

Originally posted by nickbradley:
AJ Jenkins didn't have off the charts measurables

Uhhh....actually, he did.....

....4.37 40 yd. dash at the Combine...one of the fastest times of any player invited
....38.5" vertical leap (better than Blackmon, Floyd, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, Quick, and M. Jones)
....4.12 20 yd. shuttle (better than Blackmon, Floyd, K Wright, S Hill, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, and Quick)
....6.73 3-cone drill (better than Blackmon, Floyd, K Wright, S Hill, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, Quick, M. Jones, and Childs)
....10'4" broad jump (better than Blackmon, Floyd, K Wright, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, Quick, and M. Jones)

Just sayin...

May 1, 2012 at 1:52 AM

#123

Curticio11
Veteran
Posts: 34

Originally posted by nw9erfan:
Uhhh....actually, he did.....

....4.37 40 yd. dash at the Combine...one of the fastest times of any player invited
....38.5" vertical leap (better than Blackmon, Floyd, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, Quick, and M. Jones)
....4.12 20 yd. shuttle (better than Blackmon, Floyd, K Wright, S Hill, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, and Quick)
....6.73 3-cone drill (better than Blackmon, Floyd, K Wright, S Hill, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, Quick, M. Jones, and Childs)
....10'4" broad jump (better than Blackmon, Floyd, K Wright, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, Quick, and M. Jones)

Just sayin...

True story

May 1, 2012 at 4:50 AM

#124

sean610
Veteran
Posts: 284

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by DRnSFw:
remember it's not how fast they run at the combine with NO PADS ON!

It's how fast they run in Live Game Action with PADS ON!

I've never understood why they don't run with pads ON

They dont need to run in pads. Too many fans waste time looking at the 40. All you have to do is look at the 3 cone and short shuttle times thats the time that tells you the most about a players game speed.

[ Edited by sean610 on May 1, 2012 at 4:56 AM ]

May 1, 2012 at 7:44 AM

#125

LasVegasWally
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Posts: 24,886

Solid analysis and I agree WE GOT A STEAL.

May 1, 2012 at 9:40 AM

#126

nw9erfan
Veteran
Posts: 1,497

Originally posted by Curticio11:

Originally posted by nw9erfan:
Uhhh....actually, he did.....

....4.37 40 yd. dash at the Combine...one of the fastest times of any player invited
....38.5" vertical leap (better than Blackmon, Floyd, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, Quick, and M. Jones)
....4.12 20 yd. shuttle (better than Blackmon, Floyd, K Wright, S Hill, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, and Quick)
....6.73 3-cone drill (better than Blackmon, Floyd, K Wright, S Hill, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, Quick, M. Jones, and Childs)
....10'4" broad jump (better than Blackmon, Floyd, K Wright, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, Quick, and M. Jones)

Just sayin...

True story

True and verifiable....
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=83167&draftyear=2012&genpos=WR

May 1, 2012 at 10:23 AM

#127

Jakemall
Veteran
Posts: 21,802

Originally posted by sean610:
They dont need to run in pads. Too many fans waste time looking at the 40. All you have to do is look at the 3 cone and short shuttle times thats the time that tells you the most about a players game speed.

Actually, you do.

There are guys out there that 5 pounds of gear will slow them down. IF you're 6'1 and 165 pounds and run a 4.28 it would be very possible that with full gear you're running a 4.38. That's why we keep hearing about "Game Speed".

I agree that the 3 cone and short shuttle are better indications of a player's speed..but they'd be even more accurate if they were run with pads and a helmet. For the most part the 40 isn't important at all...the 10 yard split is...and in some cases the 20 yard split is.

May 1, 2012 at 10:57 AM

#128

Joecool
Veteran
Posts: 70,984

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by Joecool:
Not exactly. Most instances, a WR doesn't get a chance to maximize his leap or is required to leap at all. Crabtree's arm length ALWAYS allows him to be that high whereas AJ would be required to leap every time to reach that height and getting to the height of a leap rarely happens.

OK Fine; you're making assumptions about jump maximization and whatnot. You assume a leap at 80% of max and Jenkins loses an inch on Crabtree.

That's even if there's time for an 80% jump such as a quick slant that is rifled and you only have a split second to get your hands over your head for the catch. Or a ten yard out or any square pattern where the ball can only be caught if one reaches sideways. Crabtree has more advantage of catching a variety of reach type of balls than does AJ.

AJ would only be on the same level of Crabs if it is a ball that is above the head.

May 1, 2012 at 2:50 PM

#129

goldstandard
Veteran
Posts: 1,436

What you're saying is we drafted the next great NFL receiver.