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Analysis of the AJ Jenkins Pick (AJ Is a Range/Speed Specimen)

Originally posted by Pick6:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Originally posted by Pick6:
Originally posted by DirtyP:
I loved the Jenkins pick, but you make yourself look dumb when you say Hill can't play receiver.

"well"... he just had an assumptive ending. "Hill can't play receiver WELL".

Which is an accurate statement if playing WR requires a player to do anything but run straight down the field and catch a ball 2-3 times per game. It really adds to it when that WR's offense is based off of a run option threat... IF he could play WR "well" and IS a 1st round WR the team would have got him more involved somehow.

Nice assumption, but what's originally written (and since edited) about Hill is the declaritive "who can't play WR." But even giving the OP the benefit of the doubt, there is no analysis to back that statement up. All we get from the edited version is, "However, there are major issues with his ability to actually play the WR position in the NFL...he's not a very good wide receiver."

Based on what? Things he doesn't do well TODAY? What are these things and why can't they EVER be corrected/coached up? Are Hill's flaws so glaring and uncorrectable that he'll never make it the NFL? If so, why?

See the point? The more I look at Jenkins the more I get excited about the pick, but let's not get so homeristic that we don't even bother to back up our critical statements of other players with a reasonable analysis.

I hear what your saying... and I wasn't being a homer or trying to add to the OP's original statement. You're correct he might have meant that he can't play wr, but I assumed he meant that he couldn't play it well.

I'm not saying that Hill can't be coached up, but seriously for as much raw talent as is there how could he not have been used more? I don't follow GT football maybe he ran more than just a go route, but its hard to imagine... when your average per catch is higher than your number of catches that raises concerns to me. Look at Damaryus Thomas and Calvin Johnson's numbers, they both exceeded 1000 yards. There have been several WR that have produced way better numbers in GT's offense than Hill. Could he be good, sure... he has plenty of talent, I only wonder why he hasn't transfered that to production. Saying he didn't produce because of the offense is just an excuse IMO.

You're arguing points that I never made. I agree with what you're saying and obviously there's a reason Hill was passed on until the 2nd even with all that talent/potential. My only point was about the orginal poster just making the blanket statement that Hill "can't play WR." All your concerns are valid and I'm happy with Jenkins...I just thought it was silly to say what was said about Hill.
[ Edited by GhostofFredDean74 on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:07 AM ]
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Nope, doesn't matter to the OP.

Truth is, Hill like any WR coming from a non-pro style offense will have a steep learning curve...which is not unique for college WRs. It doesn't mean they can't succeed, it just means they may not contribute as quickly as others who have run the route-tree, can get in and out of breaks quickly and understand the nuances of the pro passing game.

If they have the right mix of size/speed/athleticism, core WR skills, desire and smarts, they will be fine.

I answered your question - perhaps you glossed over it?
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Nope, doesn't matter to the OP.

Truth is, Hill like any WR coming from a non-pro style offense will have a steep learning curve...which is not unique for college WRs. It doesn't mean they can't succeed, it just means they may not contribute as quickly as others who have run the route-tree, can get in and out of breaks quickly and understand the nuances of the pro passing game.

If they have the right mix of size/speed/athleticism, core WR skills, desire and smarts, they will be fine.

It's not a non pro style offense. Its a non-passing offense!
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by Joecool:
You do know the WR's who recently came out of GT?

Yes. an overdrafted Demaryius Thomas that benefited from following in the Footsteps of one Calvin Johnson.

http://footballoutsiders.com/player/24311/demaryius-thomas

Do you see the devolution here?

Yeah, but it seems like he's improving and developing nicely. If he keeps at his pace, should be a breakout year for him.
Originally posted by Joecool:
Yeah, but it seems like he's improving and developing nicely. If he keeps at his pace, should be a breakout year for him.

I live in Denver - he's not. Eric Decker is the guy everyone expects to 'blow up' with Manning. Manning and Decker went to the rockies game together yesterday -- that's his 'guy'.
Originally posted by DirtyP:
Originally posted by Pick6:
"well"... he just had an assumptive ending. "Hill can't play receiver WELL".

Which is an accurate statement if playing WR requires a player to do anything but run straight down the field and catch a ball 2-3 times per game. It really adds to it when that WR's offense is based off of a run option threat... IF he could play WR "well" and IS a 1st round WR the team would have got him more involved somehow.

T.O. was a third round pick. Keyshawn Johnson was the 1st overall pick.

Not sure what you're trying to say... TO played at Tenn-Chattanooga where he was the focus of every opposing Def and still put up numbers better than Hill. He caught at least 30 passes all three years he was a starter. Keyshawn played at USC at his numbers were through the roof. Keyshawn was a first round pick because he produced at USC, Owens was a 3rd round pick because he had average stats at Tenn Chatt, but both of these guys were more productive than Hill.

If you're saying that Jenkins is Key, I'll take that... over 10k yards and in 11 season only once did he have less than 800 yards.

If you're saying that Hill is TO... he MIGHT be... but he wasn't as productive in college despite opposing Def keying on the running game... I don't think that will be the case.

I am not saying that I think Hill will not be good... I'm simply saying he struggled to produce in college, and I can see that as a primary reason to expect the same in the NFL and that would be one reason I would take the much more productive Jenkins.
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Originally posted by Pick6:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Originally posted by Pick6:
Originally posted by DirtyP:
I loved the Jenkins pick, but you make yourself look dumb when you say Hill can't play receiver.

"well"... he just had an assumptive ending. "Hill can't play receiver WELL".

Which is an accurate statement if playing WR requires a player to do anything but run straight down the field and catch a ball 2-3 times per game. It really adds to it when that WR's offense is based off of a run option threat... IF he could play WR "well" and IS a 1st round WR the team would have got him more involved somehow.

Nice assumption, but what's originally written (and since edited) about Hill is the declaritive "who can't play WR." But even giving the OP the benefit of the doubt, there is no analysis to back that statement up. All we get from the edited version is, "However, there are major issues with his ability to actually play the WR position in the NFL...he's not a very good wide receiver."

Based on what? Things he doesn't do well TODAY? What are these things and why can't they EVER be corrected/coached up? Are Hill's flaws so glaring and uncorrectable that he'll never make it the NFL? If so, why?

See the point? The more I look at Jenkins the more I get excited about the pick, but let's not get so homeristic that we don't even bother to back up our critical statements of other players with a reasonable analysis.

I hear what your saying... and I wasn't being a homer or trying to add to the OP's original statement. You're correct he might have meant that he can't play wr, but I assumed he meant that he couldn't play it well.

I'm not saying that Hill can't be coached up, but seriously for as much raw talent as is there how could he not have been used more? I don't follow GT football maybe he ran more than just a go route, but its hard to imagine... when your average per catch is higher than your number of catches that raises concerns to me. Look at Damaryus Thomas and Calvin Johnson's numbers, they both exceeded 1000 yards. There have been several WR that have produced way better numbers in GT's offense than Hill. Could he be good, sure... he has plenty of talent, I only wonder why he hasn't transfered that to production. Saying he didn't produce because of the offense is just an excuse IMO.

You're arguing points that I never made. I agree with what you're saying and obviously there's a reason Hill was passed on until the 2nd even with all that talent/potential. My only point was about the orginal poster just making the blanket statement that Hill "can't play WR." All your concerns are valid and I'm happy with Jenkins...I just thought it was silly to say what was said about Hill.

Originally posted by Pick6:
Originally posted by DirtyP:
Originally posted by Pick6:
"well"... he just had an assumptive ending. "Hill can't play receiver WELL".

Which is an accurate statement if playing WR requires a player to do anything but run straight down the field and catch a ball 2-3 times per game. It really adds to it when that WR's offense is based off of a run option threat... IF he could play WR "well" and IS a 1st round WR the team would have got him more involved somehow.

T.O. was a third round pick. Keyshawn Johnson was the 1st overall pick.

Not sure what you're trying to say... TO played at Tenn-Chattanooga where he was the focus of every opposing Def and still put up numbers better than Hill. He caught at least 30 passes all three years he was a starter. Keyshawn played at USC at his numbers were through the roof. Keyshawn was a first round pick because he produced at USC, Owens was a 3rd round pick because he had average stats at Tenn Chatt, but both of these guys were more productive than Hill.

If you're saying that Jenkins is Key, I'll take that... over 10k yards and in 11 season only once did he have less than 800 yards.

If you're saying that Hill is TO... he MIGHT be... but he wasn't as productive in college despite opposing Def keying on the running game... I don't think that will be the case.

I am not saying that I think Hill will not be good... I'm simply saying he struggled to produce in college, and I can see that as a primary reason to expect the same in the NFL and that would be one reason I would take the much more productive Jenkins.

In other words, what we already knew about Hill. That he has all the physical tools, but a relative lack of productivity combined with a college offensive scheme leaves doubts about how effectively he can transition to a real offence and to facing the better CB's in the NFL.
Originally posted by Pick6:
Not sure what you're trying to say... TO played at Tenn-Chattanooga where he was the focus of every opposing Def and still put up numbers better than Hill. He caught at least 30 passes all three years he was a starter. Keyshawn played at USC at his numbers were through the roof. Keyshawn was a first round pick because he produced at USC, Owens was a 3rd round pick because he had average stats at Tenn Chatt, but both of these guys were more productive than Hill.

If you're saying that Jenkins is Key, I'll take that... over 10k yards and in 11 season only once did he have less than 800 yards.

If you're saying that Hill is TO... he MIGHT be... but he wasn't as productive in college despite opposing Def keying on the running game... I don't think that will be the case.

I am not saying that I think Hill will not be good... I'm simply saying he struggled to produce in college, and I can see that as a primary reason to expect the same in the NFL and that would be one reason I would take the much more productive Jenkins.

Hill isn't even covered by a defender on every play. Plus, TO went lower because he was from a small school - that is always going to happen.
Originally posted by bzborow1:
In other words, what we already knew about Hill. That he has all the physical tools, but a relative lack of productivity combined with a college offensive scheme leaves doubts about how effectively he can transition to a real offence and to facing the better CB's in the NFL.

...and to facing actual CBs.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Nope, doesn't matter to the OP.

Truth is, Hill like any WR coming from a non-pro style offense will have a steep learning curve...which is not unique for college WRs. It doesn't mean they can't succeed, it just means they may not contribute as quickly as others who have run the route-tree, can get in and out of breaks quickly and understand the nuances of the pro passing game.

If they have the right mix of size/speed/athleticism, core WR skills, desire and smarts, they will be fine.

It's not a non pro style offense. Its a non-passing offense!

I'l go ahead and make the assumption that Jets GM Mike Tannebaum, Sr. Personnel Executive Terry Bradway and their VP of College Scouting Joey Clinkscales know a little more about football than you. I could be wrong here, and they've made mistakes before like every pro team has, but you can't really fault me for making that assumption, can you? Here's how they put it:

Tannenbaum:
He said the team studied Demaryius Thomas' adjustment to the NFL to get an idea of how Hill might transition from the Tech offense to the NFL, and spent a lot of time getting to know Hill. In addition to the pro day at Tech, the Jets worked him out at their facility and also in Atlanta, which lasted about an hour and a half. Tannenbaum: "We really feel he can run all the routes we'll ask in our offense. Again, he was a very good blocker in a run-oriented offense. He has very good football acumen and we feel the transition can happen really quickly."

Clinkscales:
"He is a tall kid who can run. He is flexible, can sink his hips, he can drop his weight and get in and out of routes. More (important) than the offense is his skill set, and I think his skill set transfers to this level pretty well. He's unique. He's a 6'4 kid that weighs 215 and runs a 4.32. He's a unique athlete, he really is. Calvin Johnson, maybe? And I'm not going to put that label on him but from a height, weight, speed moniker. He's just a unique athlete."

Bradway regarding all college WRs:
"I think there's a transition for all of them, to be honest with you. With the spread offenses, they don't normally run the NFL route tree. But it was important for us to put him through that to see that he could do it. Like I said, at the combine, at his pro day, and at his work out for us, he showed that he can do that. This guy is really coachable. He's willing to work. With (wide receivers coach) Sanjay (Lal) and our offensive coaches, I think the upside is going to happen pretty quickly for this kid."
[ Edited by GhostofFredDean74 on Apr 30, 2012 at 11:26 AM ]
Bottom line, Nick...the Jets spent a lot of time with him and that (along with studying actual tape) is how they came to their conclusion. You read what's online and watch YouTube videos to come to yours. See why I would favor their assessment?

Btw, that's also why I love the Jenkins pick...our front office spends time with these kids, gets to meet them personally and work them out up close and personal.

We zoners just blab on about who we like based on surface level information. Because of that, regardless of how I feel about the guys we selected, I will ALWAYS defer to the experts.
49ers run a non-pro offense.
Originally posted by Pick6:
Not sure what you're trying to say... TO played at Tenn-Chattanooga where he was the focus of every opposing Def and still put up numbers better than Hill. He caught at least 30 passes all three years he was a starter. Keyshawn played at USC at his numbers were through the roof. Keyshawn was a first round pick because he produced at USC, Owens was a 3rd round pick because he had average stats at Tenn Chatt, but both of these guys were more productive than Hill.

If you're saying that Jenkins is Key, I'll take that... over 10k yards and in 11 season only once did he have less than 800 yards.

If you're saying that Hill is TO... he MIGHT be... but he wasn't as productive in college despite opposing Def keying on the running game... I don't think that will be the case.

I am not saying that I think Hill will not be good... I'm simply saying he struggled to produce in college, and I can see that as a primary reason to expect the same in the NFL and that would be one reason I would take the much more productive Jenkins.

It means the experts get it wrong every year so why does anyone on the web zone think they know a damn thing about any of these guys? Its about what they can do after they are coached by a pro coaching staff, not what they could do as collegiates.

My original point was that I like the Jenkins pick and I think that he is a great fit. I also think that Hill has a chance to be a good football player despite his limited opportunities to show it in college. I really don't feel like taking this arbitrary conversation any further than this until these guys get on the field.
Originally posted by iLL49er:
nice analysis i don't quite understand the formula in your half spheroidal info.

I'd love to see a comparison of the shuttle and 3 cones between all these guys if you hvae that info...it'll give us a comparison across the board on who is quicker/more agile

Here is a bit of information about Jenkins and some comparison with other top rated WR prospects in this draft...

A.J. Jenkins...

physical attributes...
-large, sure hands
-runs great routes
-is both quick and fast
-can stretch the field
-was extremely productive even though he was playing with a below average QB

-for those of you who like numbers...
....4.37 40 yd. dash at the Combine...one of the fastest times of any player invited
....38.5" vertical leap (better than Blackmon, Floyd, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, Quick, and M. Jones)
....4.12 20 yd. shuttle (better than Blackmon, Floyd, K Wright, S Hill, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, and Quick)
....6.73 3-cone drill (better than Blackmon, Floyd, K Wright, S Hill, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, Quick, M. Jones, and Childs)
....10'4" broad jump (better than Blackmon, Floyd, K Wright, Randle, Jeffery, Givens, Sanu, Quick, and M. Jones)

intangibles
-humble
-hard working
-very intelligent
-has great character
-loves the game of football
-has great bloodlines (his father played in the NFL and was a very good WR)
-improved every year in college and by all accounts, has not reached his ceiling
-wants to get better

I'd say he qualifies as a top prospect...

Cheers!