Analysis of the AJ Jenkins Pick (AJ Is a Range/Speed Specimen)

Originally posted by Next9erDynasty:
I can see Jenkins working into the lineup as the 3rd down "Blitz Beater" slot WR. With Crabs, Davis, and Mario drawing seam/deep coverage, Jenkins should have lots of room open underneath. Especially if James is substituted in behind the line.

Either guy can break a big play if they get the ball in space.

Start with a 3WR/1TE formation, option James out to Slot throw underneath.

Also, you can go with a 2WR/1TE/2RB split backs formation, option James out to the slot...

tripple reverse! James to Williams to Jenkins!

Originally posted by ChazBoner:
tripple reverse! James to Williams to Jenkins!

Who then throws it deep to Randy Moss

Originally posted by WookieOftheYear:

Originally posted by ChazBoner:
tripple reverse! James to Williams to Jenkins!

Who then throws it deep to Randy Moss

jenkins can't throw. n00b

Originally posted by nickbradley:
Clearly, Trent Baalke concluded that the 49ers lacked elite speed and explosiveness on offense, resulting in the picks of AJ Jenkins at #30 and LaMichael James at #61. James is a consensus home run pick, but its a bit unclear why Jenkins was taken over Stephen Hill, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick, and Alshon Jeffery -- all rated ahead of Jenkins.

So what I did is analyze measurables of the Top 10 WR prospects for height, weight, size, speed, vertical, arm length, and broad jump ability. Its linked below. 'spheroidal range' and 'spheroidal/speed' is designed to measure the "catch radius" of the receiver and speed. Since a lower speed is better, dividing catch range by speed gives you a nice measurable.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmEu1DDN514kdFZoX0QzRlpFYllFNm82MjQtOVl2S2c

The first thing that stands out is that Stephen Hill is perhaps one of greatest physically gifted WR prospects we've seen in years -- at least since the other Georgia Tech WRs. However, there are major issues with his ability to actually play the WR position in the NFL...he's not a very good wide receiver. But when we look outside of Hill, we see something Amazing:

AJ Jenkins has the best vertical:speed ratio in the draft and the best broad:speed ratio in the draft...outside of the freak Hill (who can't play WR). He outscored Floyd, Jeffery, and Blackmon on these measures. In addition, he's a great WR.

His only weak spot is strength and weight, which he plans to address this summer...I THINK WE GOT A STEAL.

Based on the data, AJ Jenkins is significantly underweight for his frame — its backed by the numbers.

I don't want to totally geek out, but you can see how 'filled out' a player is by dividing weight by (height + arm length); It'd be best to divide muscle mass by (height + arm length), but I don't have that data. ** But what you find if you do divide weight by (height + arms) is that Jenkins is unusually undersized. Here is the data for the ratios:

Michael Floyd – 2.04
Alshon Jeffery – 2.00
Brian Quick – 2.00
Stephen Hill – 1.97
Mohamed Sanu – 1.96
Justin Blackmon – 1.96
Kendall Wright – 1.95
Rueben Randle – 1.94
Chris Givens – 1.94
A.J. Jenkins - 1.81

As you can see, Michael Floyd is completely 'filled out' – the guy is stout and physical — he is mature. Jeffery and Quick are mature as well – while guys like Blackmon are average. AJ Jenkins, on the other hand, is two standard deviations away from the mean — he's very very underdeveloped. Getting up to an average ratio of 1.95 for w/(h+a) or 2.82 for w/h – you're looking at about 205 pounds or so. I think the dude is 200 lbs at training camp.

So, the 49ers drafted a guy that they figured they could throw in the weight room and turn into a top 10 top 15 talent!

No, don't worry about geeking out. Assuming the ratios are an accurate indicator, this could really bode well for the offense.

I loved the Jenkins pick, but you make yourself look dumb when you say Hill can't play receiver.

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by sincalfaithful:

WTF is the problem???

Originally posted by ChazBoner:

Originally posted by WookieOftheYear:

Originally posted by ChazBoner:
tripple reverse! James to Williams to Jenkins!

Who then throws it deep to Randy Moss

jenkins can't throw. n00b

he played QB in peewee football so who's the nOOb now?

Originally posted by 99problems:

Originally posted by ChazBoner:

Originally posted by WookieOftheYear:

Originally posted by ChazBoner:
tripple reverse! James to Williams to Jenkins!

Who then throws it deep to Randy Moss

jenkins can't throw. n00b

he played QB in peewee football so who's the nOOb now?

BOOM

Originally posted by DirtyP:
I loved the Jenkins pick, but you make yourself look dumb when you say Hill can't play receiver.

"well"... he just had an assumptive ending. "Hill can't play receiver WELL".

Which is an accurate statement if playing WR requires a player to do anything but run straight down the field and catch a ball 2-3 times per game. It really adds to it when that WR's offense is based off of a run option threat... IF he could play WR "well" and IS a 1st round WR the team would have got him more involved somehow.

Originally posted by DirtyP:
I loved the Jenkins pick, but you make yourself look dumb when you say Hill can't play receiver.

He can't.

Can he run routes? No

Does he lose the ball en route? yes

Originally posted by mayo49:

nein! only one thread per player!

Originally posted by Pick6:
"well"... he just had an assumptive ending. "Hill can't play receiver WELL".

Which is an accurate statement if playing WR requires a player to do anything but run straight down the field and catch a ball 2-3 times per game. It really adds to it when that WR's offense is based off of a run option threat... IF he could play WR "well" and IS a 1st round WR the team would have got him more involved somehow.

Also, WRs are usually covered by a defender, which often wasn't the case in the GT offense.

Originally posted by Pick6:

Originally posted by DirtyP:
I loved the Jenkins pick, but you make yourself look dumb when you say Hill can't play receiver.

"well"... he just had an assumptive ending. "Hill can't play receiver WELL".

Which is an accurate statement if playing WR requires a player to do anything but run straight down the field and catch a ball 2-3 times per game. It really adds to it when that WR's offense is based off of a run option threat... IF he could play WR "well" and IS a 1st round WR the team would have got him more involved somehow.

Nice assumption, but what's originally written (and since edited) about Hill is the declaritive "who can't play WR." But even giving the OP the benefit of the doubt, there is no analysis to back that statement up. All we get from the edited version is, "However, there are major issues with his ability to actually play the WR position in the NFL...he's not a very good wide receiver."

Based on what? Things he doesn't do well TODAY? What are these things and why can't they EVER be corrected/coached up? Are Hill's flaws so glaring and uncorrectable that he'll never make it the NFL? If so, why?

See the point? The more I look at Jenkins the more I get excited about the pick, but let's not get so homeristic that we don't even bother to back up our critical statements of other players with a reasonable analysis.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Nice assumption, but what's originally written (and since edited) about Hill is the declaritive "who can't play WR." But even giving the OP the benefit of the doubt, there is no analysis to back that statement up. All we get from the edited version is, "However, there are major issues with his ability to actually play the WR position in the NFL...he's not a very good wide receiver."

Based on what? Things he doesn't do well TODAY? What are these things and why can't they EVER be corrected/coached up? Are Hill's flaws so glaring and uncorrectable that he'll never make it the NFL? If so, why?

See the point? The more I look at Jenkins the more I get excited about the pick, but let's not get so homeristic that we don't even bother to back up our critical statements of other players with a reasonable analysis.

I'll make it simple:

playing WR in an offense where you don't run traditional routes, lose the ball in air, and are usually uncovered by a defender

DOES NOT EQUAL

playing WR in the national football league