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Analysis of the AJ Jenkins Pick (AJ Is a Range/Speed Specimen)

Clearly, Trent Baalke concluded that the 49ers lacked elite speed and explosiveness on offense, resulting in the picks of AJ Jenkins at #30 and LaMichael James at #61. James is a consensus home run pick, but its a bit unclear why Jenkins was taken over Stephen Hill, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick, and Alshon Jeffery -- all rated ahead of Jenkins.

So what I did is analyze measurables of the Top 10 WR prospects for height, weight, size, speed, vertical, arm length, and broad jump ability. Its linked below. 'spheroidal range' and 'spheroidal/speed' is designed to measure the "catch radius" of the receiver and speed. Since a lower speed is better, dividing catch range by speed gives you a nice measurable.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmEu1DDN514kdFZoX0QzRlpFYllFNm82MjQtOVl2S2c

The first thing that stands out is that Stephen Hill is perhaps one of greatest physically gifted WR prospects we've seen in years -- at least since the other Georgia Tech WRs. However, there are major issues with his ability to actually play the WR position in the NFL...he's not a very good wide receiver. But when we look outside of Hill, we see something Amazing:

AJ Jenkins has the best vertical:speed ratio in the draft and the best broad:speed ratio in the draft...outside of the freak Hill (who can't play WR). He outscored Floyd, Jeffery, and Blackmon on these measures. In addition, he's a great WR.

His only weak spot is strength and weight, which he plans to address this summer...I THINK WE GOT A STEAL.

Based on the data, AJ Jenkins is significantly underweight for his frame — its backed by the numbers.

I don't want to totally geek out, but you can see how 'filled out' a player is by dividing weight by (height + arm length); It'd be best to divide muscle mass by (height + arm length), but I don't have that data. ** But what you find if you do divide weight by (height + arms) is that Jenkins is unusually undersized. Here is the data for the ratios:

Michael Floyd – 2.04
Alshon Jeffery – 2.00
Brian Quick – 2.00
Stephen Hill – 1.97
Mohamed Sanu – 1.96
Justin Blackmon – 1.96
Kendall Wright – 1.95
Rueben Randle – 1.94
Chris Givens – 1.94
A.J. Jenkins - 1.81

As you can see, Michael Floyd is completely 'filled out' – the guy is stout and physical — he is mature. Jeffery and Quick are mature as well – while guys like Blackmon are average. AJ Jenkins, on the other hand, is two standard deviations away from the mean — he's very very underdeveloped. Getting up to an average ratio of 1.95 for w/(h+a) or 2.82 for w/h – you're looking at about 205 pounds or so. I think the dude is 200 lbs at training camp.

So, the 49ers drafted a guy that they figured they could throw in the weight room and turn into a top 10 top 15 talent!
[ Edited by nickbradley on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:53 AM ]
Originally posted by sincalfaithful:

WTF is the problem???
Originally posted by nickbradley:
but its a bit unclear why Jenkins was taken over Stephen Hill, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick, and Alshon Jeffery -- all rated ahead of Jenkins.

Not according to the 49ers
Nice analysis. Thanks.
Originally posted by valrod33:
Not according to the 49ers

I know. I'm analyzing Baalke's thought process.

They decided to draft a guy that's underdeveloped muscularly and it will pay huge dividends. Jenkins at 205 lbs with his speed, hands, range, etc is a Top 10 pick.
Good job loved the analysis
Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
Good job loved the analysis

Apparently sincalfaithful didn't
Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
Good job loved the anal
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by valrod33:
Not according to the 49ers

I know. I'm analyzing Baalke's thought process.

They decided to draft a guy that's underdeveloped muscularly and it will pay huge dividends. Jenkins at 205 lbs with his speed, hands, range, etc is a Top 10 pick.

Also, AJ is a "character guy" and produced VERY well with a horrible QB at the helm and accounted for over 50% of his team's offense. Also, he has soft hands (I haven't seen him body one ball in any of his highlight videos) and runs very crisp routes. Not to mention, he played quicker/faster than a lot of the guys you mentioned and he can play all three WR spots, with some return skills too.

I agree, that he could be a top 10 pick.
[ Edited by RedWaltz24 on Apr 30, 2012 at 9:01 AM ]
Originally posted by RedWaltz24:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by valrod33:
Not according to the 49ers

I know. I'm analyzing Baalke's thought process.

They decided to draft a guy that's underdeveloped muscularly and it will pay huge dividends. Jenkins at 205 lbs with his speed, hands, range, etc is a Top 10 pick.

Also, AJ is a "character guy" and produced VERY well with a horrible QB at the helm and accounted for over 50% of his team's offense. Also, he has soft hands (I haven't seen him body one ball in any of his highlight videos) and runs very crisp routes. Not to mention, he played quicker/faster than a lot of the guys you mentioned.

I agree, that he could be a top 10 pick.

fits our system perfectly!
its been said adding and keeping weight has been a problem....he may just burn the weight too quickly
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
Good job loved the analysis

Apparently sincalfaithful didn't

Not when there's already an entire thread dedicated to him, you could've just stuck it in there instead of creating another one of your 34062348967439876 threads
  • Chico
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,155
Big Heart + Hunger + Athletic ability = winner

throw all that other crap out the window
Originally posted by sincalfaithful:
Not when there's already an entire thread dedicated to him, you could've just stuck it in there instead of creating another one of your 34062348967439876 threads

Yes, a thread or two a week is 34062348967439876..