Clearly, Trent Baalke concluded that the 49ers lacked elite speed and explosiveness on offense, resulting in the picks of AJ Jenkins at #30 and LaMichael James at #61. James is a consensus home run pick, but its a bit unclear why Jenkins was taken over Stephen Hill, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick, and Alshon Jeffery -- all rated ahead of Jenkins.
So what I did is analyze measurables of the Top 10 WR prospects for height, weight, size, speed, vertical, arm length, and broad jump ability. Its linked below. 'spheroidal range' and 'spheroidal/speed' is designed to measure the "catch radius" of the receiver and speed. Since a lower speed is better, dividing catch range by speed gives you a nice measurable.
The first thing that stands out is that Stephen Hill is perhaps one of greatest physically gifted WR prospects we've seen in years -- at least since the other Georgia Tech WRs. However, there are major issues with his ability to actually play the WR position in the NFL...he's not a very good wide receiver. But when we look outside of Hill, we see something Amazing:
AJ Jenkins has the best vertical:speed ratio in the draft and the best broad:speed ratio in the draft...outside of the freak Hill (who can't play WR). He outscored Floyd, Jeffery, and Blackmon on these measures. In addition, he's a great WR.
His only weak spot is strength and weight, which he plans to address this summer...I THINK WE GOT A STEAL.
Based on the data, AJ Jenkins is significantly underweight for his frame — its backed by the numbers.
I don't want to totally geek out, but you can see how 'filled out' a player is by dividing weight by (height + arm length); It'd be best to divide muscle mass by (height + arm length), but I don't have that data. ** But what you find if you do divide weight by (height + arms) is that Jenkins is unusually undersized. Here is the data for the ratios:
Michael Floyd – 2.04
Alshon Jeffery – 2.00
Brian Quick – 2.00
Stephen Hill – 1.97
Mohamed Sanu – 1.96
Justin Blackmon – 1.96
Kendall Wright – 1.95
Rueben Randle – 1.94
Chris Givens – 1.94
A.J. Jenkins - 1.81
As you can see, Michael Floyd is completely 'filled out' – the guy is stout and physical — he is mature. Jeffery and Quick are mature as well – while guys like Blackmon are average. AJ Jenkins, on the other hand, is two standard deviations away from the mean — he's very very underdeveloped. Getting up to an average ratio of 1.95 for w/(h+a) or 2.82 for w/h – you're looking at about 205 pounds or so. I think the dude is 200 lbs at training camp.
So, the 49ers drafted a guy that they figured they could throw in the weight room and turn into a top 10 top 15 talent!
[ Edited by nickbradley on Apr 30, 2012 at 8:53 AM ]