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The Total Inability of 49er Fans to Understand Receiver Performance

Originally posted by Howlett49:
And that makes Williams a stud how? Even more of a reason a little guy is at a disadvantage to a guy Moss' size. At least Alex has a better shot at connecting with a big target like Moss than hitting a smaller area for Williams.

Umm, you pointed out that he had a bad NFC Championship game to refute my points about the regular season. So I point out that Alex Smith did not have a good game.

Wes Welker must be at a huge disadvantage...
Originally posted by pd24:
Staley and Soap must be pretty good with that stat also.

No. They each had one catch for 17 yards.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
So, here's the narrative we hear on webzone incessantly:
- Crabtree will never be a #1
- Manningham is overrated
- Moss is Washed up
- Williams needs to be cut (for some reason)
- Delanie Walker is Awesome! No reason to draft Coby Fleener

Well, I'm here to tell you that all of those are untrue with the exception of the Moss one - because I have no idea how much he has left in the tank. I will rely on Footballoutsiders.com to assess the performance of our receivers. http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

Crabtree - Crabtree improved dramatically from 2010 to 2011, after an even bigger improvement from 2009 to 2010. Extrapolating the trend, he should be a top 15 WR in 2012. On par with a Dez Bryant or something like that. method: I did a curve fit for 2009/10/11 stats and extrapolated the trend. Now, we can all throw stones at this extrapolation, but it is clear that Crabtree has the stuff to be a #1 and has improved a ton every year.

Manningham - Is everyone aware that Manningham was the 16th Best WR in 2010? And that he caught 65% of passes thrown his direction that year? And that he only caught 51% of targeted passes in 2011? He was hurt all year, and Cruz got the better routes to run. Manningham may end up being the steal of Free Agency.

Williams - On a per-play basis, Williams performed as well as Myles Austin and Torrey Smith. That's borderline #1 performance, for a little guy out of the slot that's 23 years old!

Moss - total wild card in 2012

Walker - Everyone thinks Walker is dominant, but it is a *Myth*. DVOA of -7% in 2011, 0.3% in 2010, and a horrid -20% in 2009. Totally replaceable, and not on par with other teams that run 2 TEs. You replace him with Coby Fleener (bump walker to 3rd TE), and productivity shoots up!

** With the exception of Moss, Manningham is the "old man" of the receiver corps at the ripe old age of 25!

Thoughts?

Don't say that s**t, people will flip out on you like they did on me because you expect a #2 TE in an offense that routinely incorporates 2-TE sets shouldn't go 5 or 6 games between catches.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Very good point on catching range. I think Crabtree is pretty good when Smith gets the confidence to throw it up to him.

** NO, ** NO need for a 1st round WR..

I'm down with Fleener even more than previously. I think he would help tremendously with what ails this offense and that's reliable targets on 3rd down and in the red-zone. His strengths would also work well with Alex's weaknesses, namely Alex's tendency to lob the ball high at times, for fear of throwing a pass that might be intercepted. With his size and hands, Fleener can go up and get high passes or use his body to create separation. I think he'd be a reliable and constant target all over the field, literally from Day 1.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Don't say that s**t, people will flip out on you like they did on me because you expect a #2 TE in an offense that routinely incorporates 2-TE sets shouldn't go 5 or 6 games between catches.

reality sucks for some people. When you explain to people, with numbers and stuff, that Delanie Walker is a really small Offensive Tackle/Really Big Fullback - they get really pissed off.
Originally posted by
I'm down with Fleener even more than previously. I think he would help tremendously with what ails this offense and that's reliable targets on 3rd down and in the red-zone. His strengths would also work well with Alex's weaknesses, namely Alex's tendency to lob the ball high at times, for fear of throwing a pass that might be intercepted. With his size and hands, Fleener can go up and get high passes or use his body to create separation. I think he'd be a reliable and constant target all over the field, literally from Day 1.

Scouts think Fleener is a Jimmy Graham Clone. Nah, we don't want that..we;ve got Walker!

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-0301-pompei-nfl--20120301,0,2606399.column
[ Edited by nickbradley on Mar 21, 2012 at 2:33 PM ]
Originally posted by valrod33:
Originally posted by FILTHpigskin:


Nicely dressed
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by Howlett49:
And that makes Williams a stud how? Even more of a reason a little guy is at a disadvantage to a guy Moss' size. At least Alex has a better shot at connecting with a big target like Moss than hitting a smaller area for Williams.

Umm, you pointed out that he had a bad NFC Championship game to refute my points about the regular season. So I point out that Alex Smith did not have a good game.

Wes Welker must be at a huge disadvantage...

No, he has Tom Brady. Williams was good during the regular season because he was an unknown. He was probably not a 1st option on any given play he was in. So when Williams was targeted it was because of the read and he was open. If defenses start gameplaning and accounting for Williams, because he is a stud as you suggest, his stats per play would decrease. The more he is used the harder it would be for him to maintain those numbers.
Originally posted by Fal_Mc11:
I agree with most of the things you are saying. The most upsetting thing though is that most fans here in the WZ would rather see their ideas of failure come true rather than see the team winor players succeed. This "chicken little" mentality is sick and down right sad, I can't image other fans being this hard on a team that is once again successful and headed in the right direction after over a decade of stagnation.

Back on point:
Crabtree- For someone to say he is a bust is clearly wrong, he has improved every year that he has played for us. I do however believe he needs to put in "Jerry Rice effort" to be a great player, a player he is more than capable of becoming. I would like to see him work out with the team during the OTA's and not b***h out with some small injury. I would love to see him player and work on routes during preseason. I swear if he doesn't play in preseason again, I would then prepare to move on from the idea of him ever being a solid number #1. (As it seats today, he is a solid #2)

Moss-This is the wild card play and he came at no risk to us. Think what you want about Moss, but he has been a good teammate when with the Vikings and Patriots and his teammates had said so. I loved this pick up and I will tell you why. Cheap, little risk, he is a deep threat, and maybe finally having a winning WR on the team can push the young guys. I think he will surprise this year. (A year off has cleaned his mind and his body has heeled from football)

Manningham-I wasn't crazy about this pick, but still do not know the numbers of the contract. He looks the part of a solid #2, deep threat. Good hands. Underachiever, but could surprise this year. Till I know the contract numbers I can not say for sure if it is a good pick up or not, so I reserve comment till then.

Williams-Stop saying to cut the guy, he messed up and fans need to get over it. He looked good in player last year and would not cut a player for the sake of cutting someone. We need to have a players to replace him before he can be cut. Fans are crazy, this isn't Madden.

Serious stop with the draft Fleener stuff, unless he is BPA we will not be drafting a TE in the first. We need help on the O-line, at WR, at corner, at NT, and could use some depth at DE. We are not drafting Fleener, I think that is how you spell it, I actually hope someone drafts him before we pick to end the madness.
Will come back and LOL when it happens. At this point, Fleener presents a bigger plus and is more game-ready than any WR the 49ers could hope to find at 30...and this is assuming that Hill gets picked before then, because his potential would be hard to pass up. But if you can get a dude that's ready to get after it from Day 1 and presents a major threat to defenses, there's no reason on earth why you wouldn't go get him. Having 2 great TE's lessens the need for a whole bunch of WR's as well.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
reality sucks for some people. When you explain to people, with numbers and stuff, that Delanie Walker is a really small Offensive Tackle/Really Big Fullback - they get really pissed off.

Never understood the hype behind the guy, yes, he's a jack of all trades, but he's not a major offensive threat, teams don't worry endlessly about stopping Delanie Walker, put Fleener in there and that's another major threat that has to be covered or he'll tear a defense a new one.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by
I'm down with Fleener even more than previously. I think he would help tremendously with what ails this offense and that's reliable targets on 3rd down and in the red-zone. His strengths would also work well with Alex's weaknesses, namely Alex's tendency to lob the ball high at times, for fear of throwing a pass that might be intercepted. With his size and hands, Fleener can go up and get high passes or use his body to create separation. I think he'd be a reliable and constant target all over the field, literally from Day 1.

Scouts think Fleener is a Jimmy Graham Clone. Nah, we don't want that..we;ve got Walker!

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-0301-pompei-nfl--20120301,0,2606399.column

Fleener would be great! But TE isn't as pressing of a need as you make it out to be. If it makes you feel better the 49ers have drafted a TE in the last several drafts, other than last year, so look for another TE draft pick this year.
this is like nick bradleys 7th we should draft Cody Fleener thread
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Scouts think Fleener is a Jimmy Graham Clone. Nah, we don't want that..we;ve got Walker!

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-0301-pompei-nfl--20120301,0,2606399.column

Who will probably be allowed to walk next year when he hits free agency because he won't be deemed worthy of his asking price.
Originally posted by Howlett49:
Fleener would be great! But TE isn't as pressing of a need as you make it out to be. If it makes you feel better the 49ers have drafted a TE in the last several drafts, other than last year, so look for another TE draft pick this year.

TE might not be a need, but red-zone scoring and improved 3rd down conversion rate is, if Fleener helps with both of those, who gives a f**k what position he plays? Being able to put out 2 #1 TE's on the field with one of them being a 6'6" target with terrific hands and leaping ability makes life a nightmare for the defense and makes life a hell of a lot easier for a QB who hates to throw into tight windows and routinely overthrows his under-sized receivers. I don't see any WR being picked in the draft ending up as the #1 or #2 guy right off the bat, so their playing time will be limited from the get-go.


Meanwhile, a guy like Fleener will be out there in every 2-TE set and can even split outside and play WR. Much more ready to contribute, a very important thing for a team that was on the cusp of the Super Bowl. Take a flyer on a WR in Rounds 3-5, there's a s**tload of them out there.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Mar 21, 2012 at 2:42 PM ]
Originally posted by valrod33:
this is like nick bradleys 7th we should draft Cody Fleener thread

nickbradley vs. SundayTicket. Who starts more threads?
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