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The Total Inability of 49er Fans to Understand Receiver Performance

Originally posted by HearstFan:
WINDOWS -

Last point about receivers: A key question is do they present a big target or small target for a QB? The target size a receiver offers is a variable of 4 things -- size/wingspan; separation ability (suddenness), speed, and willingness to make tough catches. These variables combine to enable a QB to put the ball into big windows or small windows with confidence on whether the receiver will make the catch. The variables for each receiver create different sized windows on different routes for each receiver.

For example, DeShaun Jackson has an enormous window on deep routes, because his speed allows him to go get the ball when it is thrown into a larger area in the open field -- but that big window doesn't translate well to the red zone. Plaxico Burress has a big window in the redzone due to his ability to go up high to get the ball.

A receiver's willingness to make a tough catch with contact in the middle creates his window for the QB in the middle -- can the QB throw it into a bigger area with confidence the receiver will go after it?

Now think about the 49ers receivers? What kind of windows do they present -- FOR ANY QB?

VD - is tough across the middle, and fast, but he doesn't have a big wingspan window and likes to catch the ball into his body. So he creates a relatively tight window. How does that compare to a Tony Gonzales, Antonio Gates, Gronkowski type? Not saying one is better than the other, but the opportunities they present the QB are different.

Crabs - Has a relatively big window when he has separation because he has good hands and snatches the ball out of the air. BUT, he doesn't reliably get separation and tends to shy away from contact IMHO. How does that compare to a Megatron that creates big windows on almost all routes?

Williams - relatively small window due to size, but has a suddenness to his routes that does give him separation.

Moss - with his sure hands (and focus) and size, big windows on deep routes and red zone.

Manningham - I hope he shows an ability to create bigger windows in the middle and deep.

Overall, I think the 49ers have done a great job finding new receiving talent to try and improve the "windows" that a QB can throw in to this next season -- and hopefully the draft improves that with a Stephen Hill, Jeffrey, or Fleener.

Very good point on catching range. I think Crabtree is pretty good when Smith gets the confidence to throw it up to him.

** NO, ** NO need for a 1st round WR..
You should just rename this thread reasons why Alex cannot succeed, so it's not his fault and he deserves another shot next year.
Originally posted by Howlett49:
Stats don't win or lose games. Fumbles do! Williams is no stud in 49erland. I know I'm refering to returning not receiving, but still. It would take a pretty significant breakout season before some people, like me, even come close to calling Williams a stud.

Performances win games! Stats reflect performance outside of random occurrences (i.e. recovered fumbles).
Originally posted by kronik:
Let me guess, this whole thread is a campaign to draft Fleener?

NO! It's an explanation that (1) our new WR Corps with Manningham and Moss is pretty freaking awesome.
Originally posted by mikeyrocks:
I'm surprised it took you over 2000 posts to realize most posters on this forum are the off spring of Skip Bayless.

A year ago most posters wanted to grab their pitch forks and burn Alex Smith's house down and hang him from a tree.

Now they want to line up for a chance to blow him.

So true!
Originally posted by hateroids84:
You should just rename this thread reasons why Alex cannot succeed, so it's not his fault and he deserves another shot next year.

An explanation of why Alex is surrounded by talent is an excuse?
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by Howlett49:
Stats don't win or lose games. Fumbles do! Williams is no stud in 49erland. I know I'm refering to returning not receiving, but still. It would take a pretty significant breakout season before some people, like me, even come close to calling Williams a stud.

Performances win games! Stats reflect performance outside of random occurrences (i.e. recovered fumbles).

Kyle Williams had a poor performance and no matter what the stats say, he is far from a stud at this point in his career.
  • pd24
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 1,994
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by pd24:
And now i must stop posting in this thread, the last WR to make the team is no stud. I assume the tittle you picked is talking about yourself?

Buddy, on a per-play basis, he performs like a fringe #1/#2 guy, statstically.
Don't bring that per play stuff around, that stat only makes guys that don't play much look good. Like the per 36 min stat for a bench player in the NBA.
Originally posted by Howlett49:
Kyle Williams had a poor performance and no matter what the stats say, he is far from a stud at this point in his career.

Alex Smith was 12/26 and couldn't hit the broad side of a barn at times due to all the pressure.
  • pd24
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 1,994
Originally posted by pd24:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by pd24:
And now i must stop posting in this thread, the last WR to make the team is no stud. I assume the tittle you picked is talking about yourself?

Buddy, on a per-play basis, he performs like a fringe #1/#2 guy, statstically.
Don't bring that per play stuff around, that stat only makes guys that don't play much look good. Like the per 36 min stat for a bench player in the NBA.
Staley and Soap must be pretty good with that stat also.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by kronik:
Let me guess, this whole thread is a campaign to draft Fleener?

NO! It's an explanation that (1) our new WR Corps with Manningham and Moss is pretty freaking awesome.

That's if Manningham and Moss perform at the level they did on previous teams. Different system and QB. Who knows? The stats can't predict the future. I would like to think that 49ers have upgraded the WR position, but no matter what stats you come up with, they still have to go out and do it all over again.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by Howlett49:
Kyle Williams had a poor performance and no matter what the stats say, he is far from a stud at this point in his career.

Alex Smith was 12/26 and couldn't hit the broad side of a barn at times due to all the pressure.

And that makes Williams a stud how? Even more of a reason a little guy is at a disadvantage to a guy Moss' size. At least Alex has a better shot at connecting with a big target like Moss than hitting a smaller area for Williams.
Originally posted by pd24:
Don't bring that per play stuff around, that stat only makes guys that don't play much look good. Like the per 36 min stat for a bench player in the NBA.

This
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by hateroids84:
You should just rename this thread reasons why Alex cannot succeed, so it's not his fault and he deserves another shot next year.

An explanation of why Alex is surrounded by talent is an excuse?

I mis-read the first post. I do hope Alex Excuses are gone this year, and the kid does well, and makes me shut up about all the hate i give him.
Originally posted by pd24:
Don't bring that per play stuff around, that stat only makes guys that don't play much look good. Like the per 36 min stat for a bench player in the NBA.

It matters dude. Targeted only 31 times, caught 20 of them during the regular season. Uncomfortable stats:

Comparing Effective Yards (non-garbage yards) to actual yards, Kyle Williams was 16th Best in the NFL.

Josh Morgan was the 7th Best deep threat in the NFL in yards per target.
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