The Total Inability of 49er Fans to Understand Receiver Performance

Originally posted by LoneWolf:
Pd24 yes but not from the season. And since williams has production, pretty good production in the receiver spot I think it will be his again.

I think he will be on the team as well as a rookie.

Originally posted by nickbradley:
But walker isn't good, it's a myth. bear pascoe is better!

What about the two tight ends we had on IR this season?

This guy nickbradley.........

Originally posted by ReceiverPwnage:
Great post. But here's the problem. Alex Smith has an alarmingly number of stalking/excuse making fans. So when people question just how "good" his 90 QB rating was with the 29th ranked passing attack....These fans jump to any excuses they can find, and the o-line and receivers are prime for the taking. He could have Jerry Rice in his prime but if Jerry happened to drop a pass at some point during the season these fans would be talking about it for the rest of the season. What will happen this season? Well there are already excuses built in. 1) Crabtree's a diva who is "slow". 2) Moss is a locker room cancer who "quits on his routes" 3) Manningham is overrated and can't run precision routes. I can guarantee all of these excuses and false accusations will be said about our receivers next season. It's just a fact.

Can't be a fact if it hasn't happened yet. Sorry dude.

WINDOWS -

Last point about receivers: A key question is do they present a big target or small target for a QB? The target size a receiver offers is a variable of 4 things -- size/wingspan; separation ability (suddenness), speed, and willingness to make tough catches. These variables combine to enable a QB to put the ball into big windows or small windows with confidence on whether the receiver will make the catch. The variables for each receiver create different sized windows on different routes for each receiver.

For example, DeShaun Jackson has an enormous window on deep routes, because his speed allows him to go get the ball when it is thrown into a larger area in the open field -- but that big window doesn't translate well to the red zone. Plaxico Burress has a big window in the redzone due to his ability to go up high to get the ball.

A receiver's willingness to make a tough catch with contact in the middle creates his window for the QB in the middle -- can the QB throw it into a bigger area with confidence the receiver will go after it?

Now think about the 49ers receivers? What kind of windows do they present -- FOR ANY QB?

VD - is tough across the middle, and fast, but he doesn't have a big wingspan window and likes to catch the ball into his body. So he creates a relatively tight window. How does that compare to a Tony Gonzales, Antonio Gates, Gronkowski type? Not saying one is better than the other, but the opportunities they present the QB are different.

Crabs - Has a relatively big window when he has separation because he has good hands and snatches the ball out of the air. BUT, he doesn't reliably get separation and tends to shy away from contact IMHO. How does that compare to a Megatron that creates big windows on almost all routes?

Williams - relatively small window due to size, but has a suddenness to his routes that does give him separation.

Moss - with his sure hands (and focus) and size, big windows on deep routes and red zone.

Manningham - I hope he shows an ability to create bigger windows in the middle and deep.

Overall, I think the 49ers have done a great job finding new receiving talent to try and improve the "windows" that a QB can throw in to this next season -- and hopefully the draft improves that with a Stephen Hill, Jeffrey, or Fleener.

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by 2Legit2Quit:

Can agree with most of the general sentiment. I have an irrational trust that Crabs will indeed become a true number 1 and top 10 receiver. I also think that Kyle Williams is a valuable asset as a receiver, but will not stand to see him field another punt as long as I live. Hope he's on the team after TC though, as I think he has the right skills to be a playmaker and the attitude to recover from his horrid NFCCG and use that experience as motivation. One part I disagree with is Delanie. Don't know what DVOA is or what it accounts for but Delanie brings a lot to the table that can't be graphed or measured. Like his block on Suh to TWICE spring Gore for big gains, his game winner at the end of that same game, etc. He's a great player for Roman to have and utilize. While Fleener would probably be an upgrade as a receiver I don't know if he can really replace what Delanie brings to the table.

Walker isn't even a real Tight End, he's a converted WR. Fleener will be better in all aspects of the game.

And Bruce Miller is a converted defensive end, so does that automatically mean he'll always be a sub-par fullback? Pretty sure Delanie has played as a TE in the NFL as many years as he played WR in college. I still fail to understand what this DVOA statistic is but I actually couldn't care less. Last time I checked this wasn't baseball. The truth is in the film, not the numbers. Baalke isnt playing money all here. Please explain to me how exactly you expect Fleener to be better in "all aspects of the game" which I assume accounts for blocking and versatility. Do you expect him to play H-back at 6-6. Or take end arounds? Cuz Delanie can do those. He's also arguably the coolest cat on the team.

Originally posted by pd24:
And now i must stop posting in this thread, the last WR to make the team is no stud. I assume the tittle you picked is talking about yourself?

Buddy, on a per-play basis, he performs like a fringe #1/#2 guy, statstically.

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by pd24:
And now i must stop posting in this thread, the last WR to make the team is no stud. I assume the tittle you picked is talking about yourself?

Buddy, on a per-play basis, he performs like a fringe #1/#2 guy, statstically.

Stats don't win or lose games. Fumbles do! Williams is no stud in 49erland. I know I'm refering to returning not receiving, but still. It would take a pretty significant breakout season before some people, like me, even come close to calling Williams a stud.

The problem with extrapolating Crabtrees numbers is that he will eventually flatten out, and you can't assume that won't be this year. A better way would be to find past receivers who had similar growth metrics and use those to extrapolate.

I don't think you should put in that much work just to prove a point though.

Good post.

1. You have to understand that your thread title is just going to piss people off.
2. I agree with pretty much everything. I've done the numbers as well in the past and they show that Crabtree is actually pretty solid. I wish he was targeted more. I think a playmaker needs the chance to make a play, but we are not a high passing offense.
3. Manningham... The Giants have this weird rotation of Nicks being the Best than Manningham and now Cruz. I hope Manningham works out but I'm not worried about him making a big play.
4. Moss I think can be great. Who knows till the season starts though. What I care about most is him showing up in Big games. We need any leadership he has to offer.
5. Williams is fine. He made a mistake and people just need to get over it. Walker fumbled in the Saints MNF game 2 years ago. Clements fumbled against Atlanta, VD does really stupid personal foul penalties and the list goe on and on. People just want a scapegoat.
6. Walker...is over-rated. The zone falls in love with Morgans and Tolziens (I like him too) and Nate's, etc... These guys have never really done anything though. Good guys but we need production on the field.
7. Yes to Fleener. If not him then please draft another big play TE. It's funny when people say no to Fleener because it's not worth a high draft pick but then they say we have 2 good TE's already. PHOENIX showed before that Walker's career high in yards is 330. That doesn't look like 2 good TE's to me. VD would probably be even better if the other TE produced a little more.

Good Job on the stats. I know it takes time to really look at them....

Originally posted by Oldschool9erfan:
Let's see.....

Crabtree - hasn't lived up to his own hype, of course starting with his b******t holdout and his lack of offseason work and preseason work has hurt the team BIG TIME. If he and Alex were on a better page, we would all be praising him. So right now as the 10th overall selection (in a draft where you could of had Hakeem Nicks) he's not looking too good. Also his speed isn't up to par. SO HOPEFULLY this guy has a healthy offseason and comes back a better player and ready to take it to the next level. I do think that he has been hurt by the Niners not having enough weapons. So right now, he's not looking like a great selection.

Williams - Man I was really happy for him to get into the line up more and then he has to deal with the Championship Game for the rest of his career. I wouldn't be comfortable with him back there. Now should he take all of the blame......I can't say that because I don't know what the coaches were telling him. It stinks because we had the best special teams in the league last year and special teams KILLED us in the championship game. I think some fault has to go on the coaches because he SHOULD HAVE GOT THE HELL AWAY FROM THE BALL or they needed to tell him, on a wet field with the lead, to just get away from the ball. But he has to do some big things next year for the fans to forget. Overall, he's a young player but he not a threat yet.

Manningham - You posted these stats "Manningham was the 16th Best WR in 2010? And that he caught 65% of passes thrown his direction that year? And that he only caught 51% of targeted passes in 2011? He was hurt all year, and Cruz got the better routes to run. Manningham may end up being the steal of Free Agency." Is the 16th best receiver good? Not sure about that. Is catching 51% of passes last year good? I don't think so. Then you say he might be the steal of FA. I think Manningham is a good addition to the team and here's why, I think he has made some great clutch catches last year. He's not afraid to go get the ball and I heard he's a good blocker. I have also heard that he doesn't run good routes but I haven't done an analyis on that. However, Manning is a much better passer than Smith. So he makes his receivers even better than they are. I would have liked for them to resign Joshua Morgan, but I think Washington overpaid for him. But Overall we needed another receiver because Moss is a Wildcard.

Randy Moss - The only guy with a worse rep would have been TO to bring to the Niners. On the positive side, he came out of retirement, he wants to play, he's not signing for huge money so it's not about money and the way the contract is structured, it's a NO LOSE investment. The key is that he's got something to prove with the way he went out of the league and probably motivated to gain more stats for all time ranking. If Randy Moss can stretch the field for us like Ted Ginn did for us and Randy is a much more dangerous threat than Ginn, then he can he a HUGE ASSET. He's a red zone target, deep threat, he's got great hands (unlike TO). He has a fantastic football IQ so he understands the game and can be a real threat in a thinking man's west coast offense. Here are the negatives, he can be a cancer, he can take plays off, is he going to be the same player as he was, he doesn't block......and we don't throw the ball a lot right now hopefully that will change and can be like the old West coast, throw to set up the run.


Walker - Here's what you said about Walker "Everyone thinks Walker is dominant, but it is a *Myth*. DVOA of -7% in 2011, 0.3% in 2010, and a horrid -20% in 2009. Totally replaceable, and not on par with other teams that run 2 TEs. You replace him with Coby Fleener (bump walker to 3rd TE), and productivity shoots up!" As far as Delanie goes, he was the Key to our offense last year. Check out the article below and you will see all of the things that he did for us.

I don't know why he wasn't used more as a weapon, he was used more with as a decoy. So I still think he will be a key player for us next year, but GUARANTEED the Niners DRAFT A TE. I would love to have Fleener because the Niners don't have the "gronkowski" type of player. We need bigger targets. Moss will help, but how many years will he play.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204346104576637441229847906.html

1. Manningham had an asterisk of an off-year in 2011, total aberration.

2. Is there anything that Walker does that Fleener can't?

Originally posted by LoneWolf:
And about the depth chart thing, at the end of the season we had 5 suiting up not 4 crabtree, ginn, williams, swain, and hastings so there is plenty of space for a rookie on our squad as of now.

Plenty of space = 1 slot if we don't re-sign Ginn

Originally posted by Howlett49:
This guy nickbradley.........

Any substance - or you just gonna be a noob jerk-ass?

Let me guess, this whole thread is a campaign to draft Fleener?

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by Howlett49:
This guy nickbradley.........

Any substance - or you just gonna be a noob jerk-ass?

Noob jerk-ass