The Total Inability of 49er Fans to Understand Receiver Performance

Originally posted by LoneWolf:

Dropped passes are not official stats, especially dropped td's, off the top of my head I can remember at least 2 on vernon davis alone. Blocks are probably one of the biggest ones not measured in stats, and credit crabtree, walker, and williams all deserve indefinetely. Without without williams block on will smith (I think it was smith) alex doesn't run the first td in the saints game, and I'm tired of the crap about anyone can make that block williams is 5'9 or 10 185 lbs blocking a full size linebacker actually a little bigger then full size, and leveled him out, anyways. I think delanie may be semi overated mut not by the exaguratted ammount everyone who wants to draft fleener is saying, he was our only receiving TE for the first half of the season due to Davis having to block while he was learning the playbook. Look I'm not saying your right or wrong I'm just saying you can't put a team together based entirely on stats. Just like you shouldn't and no one else should really judge a player entirely off stats.

I'm not talking about dropped passes, I'm talking about catch rate, which is a much better measure. It measures whether the WR was in the right position, turned the right way, didn't do a VD-style jump and catch it at his knees for no reason, etc.

Obvious? You mean making things up? There's a difference between fairytale and truth. The pathetic alex fans love fairytales. Nickbradley, keep on the fight. Alex Smith nut hugger mods will ban me shortly. English has his lips attached to his scrotum, lol.

Moss's ideal role -- get Smith to believe that if he puts the ball up, good receivers will come down with it. If Moss can do that in camp consistently, I think it will get Smith more willing to take shots with other players too. IF Moss still has enough left in the tank to do it even once a game on deep routes, that could be a huge difference for Smith's confidence and the ability of the offense to open up everone else.

Manningham has a similar knack for making tough catches, and he is much better and more willing to go across the middle than our current receivers -- Crabs in particular. In fairness, Williams will go across the middle, but he's liable to get blown up (and fumble), and Ginn was willing to go across the middle and took some big hits - so it wasn't a question of his courage -- but he didn't have great hands, and it wasn't a smart use of the return guy to get him blown up on middle crossing routes either -- so he wasn't asked to do it much.

Going across the middle seems to be an art -- where the receiver know how to snatch the ball and protect themselves at the same time. Manningham seems to have that ability in the games I've seen (which admittedly is limited). But that could be a huge help to the team.

Good post.

DWalker is a FA next season and will want more $$. If [I hope] we pick Fleener he will be less of a cap hit and IMO, be a receiving threat which DW isn't. He then can step in the following season when DW leaves. Smooth transition.

Next, I totally agree that Crabs really improved, especially his blocking. My concerns are his foot injury reoccuring and his commitment to a full TCamp and OTA's.

At firstt I didn't like the Moss pick but after reading a lot of opinions in the Zone I changed my mind. He has had a full year to rest and get healthy. He went out like a bum and didn't want to be remembered that way. And he wants a ring. Low pay on a 1 yeard deal and he can be cut at any time if he doesn't work out for some reason. VERY low risk and very high reward.

Much of what you are saying here depends heavily on the ability of Alex Smith to throw the ball into coverage and trust his receivers to come down with the catch (especially when you are talking about Moss and Manningham). This is NOT NOT NOT Alex's stength. Unless forced to do so, he'll wait for the receiver to become open and then deliver the pass. So I don't care if you have Calvin Johnson on the 49ers, until Alex can learn to make the tougher throws it's back to status quo.

Now, much of the conservative nature has been dictated by Jim Harbaugh so it's the ultimate Catch 22.

Time will tell if Harbaugh gives Alex more freedom to make the difficult throws or does he want Alex to stay in "Safe Mode." From what I see, you have one receiver who struggles to get any separation off the line (Crabtree) and two others that aren't known for running precise routes but then can go up and pluck the ball away from the defender on the intermediate/long throws (Moss and Manningham). So hate the be the devils advocate, but we still don't have a receiver other than Vernon that plays into Alex's power zone ie short to intermediate passes where the receiver gets quick separation (Wes Welker types).

I'm praying I'm wrong here. Alex DID make some very good tosses when he had too. Hope a lot of that confidence carries forward to next year. Fact of the matter is we need to improve in 3rd down/RZ effeciency. Adding a Fleener might help pay immediate dividends too.

Nick, people who understand statistics realize that catch rate is a better indicator then just a count of drops. But here's the thing. The "drops" help make more excuses for Alex, so catch rate will never be accepted.

Nickbradley the rookie would be were wherever harbaugh thinks he earned a spot whether 1234 or 5 but we can't run a just 4 receiver depth or it will kill us if anyone gets injured crabtrees foot seems to be a returning injury so we need a little insurance especially after lastb season.

Originally posted by ReceiverPwnage:
Great post. But here's the problem. Alex Smith has an alarmingly number of stalking/excuse making fans. So when people question just how "good" his 90 QB rating was with the 29th ranked passing attack....These fans jump to any excuses they can find, and the o-line and receivers are prime for the taking. He could have Jerry Rice in his prime but if Jerry happened to drop a pass at some point during the season these fans would be talking about it for the rest of the season. What will happen this season? Well there are already excuses built in. 1) Crabtree's a diva who is "slow". 2) Moss is a locker room cancer who "quits on his routes" 3) Manningham is overrated and can't run precision routes. I can guarantee all of these excuses and false accusations will be said about our receivers next season. It's just a fact.

We don't have the 29th Ranked passing attack -- we are efficient when we have to. smith was 14th in per play efficiency, and was 13th in the aggregate. Those numbers pull out all the garbage stats from throwing when you're down by 21 points.

Originally posted by LoneWolf:
Nickbradley the rookie would be were wherever harbaugh thinks he earned a spot whether 1234 or 5 but we can't run a just 4 receiver depth or it will kill us if anyone gets injured crabtrees foot seems to be a returning injury so we need a little insurance especially after lastb season.

We don't put that many WRs on the field, so we'll only suit up 4 per game.

I

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by pd24:
#3 isn't true at all. If we draft a WR in the first 3 rounds, the dude will get on the field this year. You act like we have a bunch of All Pros running around at WR. right now it is patchwork and either making Wallace an offer or a rookie make it whole.

OK Then, where is a rookie on the depth chart?

1. Moss
2. Crabtree
3. Manningham
4. Williams

It's funny that you made this thread and put Moss at 1 and a guy that might be cut at 4. A 1st round rookie can be anywhere from 2 to 4 on the Niners Depth chart. Players also get hurt, how did Swain work out stat wise last year? You want to look that up? You make it seem as though we have the best WR core ever, but if you look around the NFL a rookie WR gets playing time every year from teams that draft a WR in the first 3 rounds. Moss at number 1...lol

Originally posted by pete98146:
Much of what you are saying here depends heavily on the ability of Alex Smith to throw the ball into coverage and trust his receivers to come down with the catch (especially when you are talking about Moss and Manningham). This is NOT NOT NOT Alex's stength. Unless forced to do so, he'll wait for the receiver to become open and then deliver the pass. So I don't care if you have Calvin Johnson on the 49ers, until Alex can learn to make the tougher throws it's back to status quo.

Now, much of the conservative nature has been dictated by Jim Harbaugh so it's the ultimate Catch 22.

Time will tell if Harbaugh gives Alex more freedom to make the difficult throws or does he want Alex to stay in "Safe Mode." From what I see, you have one receiver who struggles to get any separation off the line (Crabtree) and two others that aren't known for running precise routes but then can go up and pluck the ball away from the defender on the intermediate/long throws (Moss and Manningham). So hate the be the devils advocate, but we still don't have a receiver other than Vernon that plays into Alex's power zone ie short to intermediate passes where the receiver gets quick separation (Wes Welker types).

I'm praying I'm wrong here. Alex DID make some very good tosses when he had too. Hope a lot of that confidence carries forward to next year. Fact of the matter is we need to improve in 3rd down/RZ effeciency. Adding a Fleener might help pay immediate dividends too.

He's getting confidence in his receivers slowly over time.

He has confidence in VD - he'll throw it up to him or laser it in on the goalline.

He had confidence in Josh Morgan too.

Confidence comes with time.

Originally posted by ReceiverPwnage:
HearstFan is another example. If you think Crabtree shies from contact....you haven't watched him play. That has to be the most retarded thing I have ever heard. As for not a "gamebreaker".....a 5.2 YAC average sounds good to me, but of course not good enough for the pathetic alex fans.

You're right, having not missed a game in 7 years, and only 3 since 1979, I haven't watched enough play. And with game rewind on NFL, with the luxury of being able to rewatch specific plays over and over, again, you are right.

Why don't you create a Crab's highlight real of him being a #1 caliber receiver? Show me where he breaks free, dominates coverage, etc. Good luch with that, you won't find it. Oh wait, he caught that one long reception last season for a TD - as did a hundred other no-name receivers that got lucky on one play last year, and they are all #1s too.

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by LoneWolf:
Nickbradley the rookie would be were wherever harbaugh thinks he earned a spot whether 1234 or 5 but we can't run a just 4 receiver depth or it will kill us if anyone gets injured crabtrees foot seems to be a returning injury so we need a little insurance especially after lastb season.

We don't put that many WRs on the field, so we'll only suit up 4 per game.

So you also assume Harbaugh got all of his playbook in and showed all his cards in a shortened offseason? Last year we only had 4 good WR's and they both got hurt and one got cut.

Originally posted by pd24:
I

It's funny that you made this thread and put Moss at 1 and a guy that might be cut at 4. A 1st round rookie can be anywhere from 2 to 4 on the Niners Depth chart. Players also get hurt, how did Swain work out stat wise last year? You want to look that up? You make it seem as though we have the best WR core ever, but if you look around the NFL a rookie WR gets playing time every year from teams that draft a WR in the first 3 rounds. Moss at number 1...lol

1. Swain is a scrub

2. So you draft a rookie in the first round to cut moss? huh? What happens if Moss is good? Oh, that's right: The rookie doesn't suit up.

Originally posted by nickbradley:
So, here's the narrative we hear on webzone incessantly:
- Crabtree will never be a #1
- Manningham is overrated
- Moss is Washed up
- Williams needs to be cut (for some reason)
- Delanie Walker is Awesome! No reason to draft Coby Fleener

Well, I'm here to tell you that all of those are untrue with the exception of the Moss one - because I have no idea how much he has left in the tank. I will rely on Footballoutsiders.com to assess the performance of our receivers. http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr

Crabtree - Crabtree improved dramatically from 2010 to 2011, after an even bigger improvement from 2009 to 2010. Extrapolating the trend, he should be a top 15 WR in 2012. On par with a Dez Bryant or something like that. method: I did a curve fit for 2009/10/11 stats and extrapolated the trend. Now, we can all throw stones at this extrapolation, but it is clear that Crabtree has the stuff to be a #1 and has improved a ton every year.

Manningham - Is everyone aware that Manningham was the 16th Best WR in 2010? And that he caught 65% of passes thrown his direction that year? And that he only caught 51% of targeted passes in 2011? He was hurt all year, and Cruz got the better routes to run. Manningham may end up being the steal of Free Agency.

Williams - On a per-play basis, Williams performed as well as Myles Austin and Torrey Smith. That's borderline #1 performance, for a little guy out of the slot that's 23 years old!

Moss - total wild card in 2012

Walker - Everyone thinks Walker is dominant, but it is a *Myth*. DVOA of -7% in 2011, 0.3% in 2010, and a horrid -20% in 2009. Totally replaceable, and not on par with other teams that run 2 TEs. You replace him with Coby Fleener (bump walker to 3rd TE), and productivity shoots up!

** With the exception of Moss, Manningham is the "old man" of the receiver corps at the ripe old age of 25!

Thoughts?

you undervalue delay walker imo as his contributions in run game and formation versatility have to be considered