Can the 49ers win a super bowl with Alex Smith?

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Just a question...how many qbs, NFC or AFC could have hit our WRs in NYG title game? NONE. Why? Because we don't have anything resembling a WR corps, and on top of that NONE of our WRs got open all nite long. Why? Well start with a very subpar performance by Roman and end with a #1 WR with hx of holdout(therefore questioning his team allegiance) and some spectacular catches during the season, who suddenly went "dark" for the last 2 games, when he just disappeared, once setting foot on the field. Sure the playcalls were lacking, but we had not one WR open virtually all nite. Anyone looking at the banal and unimaginative banana routes our WRs ran, with NO fakes by anyone the entire game and no crisp routes run by any WR...well put that all together and Peyton at his best or Brady at his best could not have completed passes to those guys. Don't put this on alex, because a) he didn't call the plays(no slants and no outs and they were both open all nite), and b)receivers ran the worst routes possible, never shaking their defenders. Alex's dozen or so "turf balls" aimed at WRs toes got him a lot of bad press. But what was he to do...throw a ball more likely to be intercepted than caught? Going over the tape, Coach is going to be amazed how roman went thru an entire game and made no slant or outs calls. He will also be depressed by the lack of route running by our WRs. Sure we are injured, but that is no reason for those WRs out there not running crisp routes with good fakes. WRs did what for the game? Unnhhh 1 reception for 3 yds? That just shows an underperforming WR corps to me and lousy playcalling to boot.

Put this on alex if you wish, but WRs, and lack of imaginative playcalling are the real goats from where I stand. And the10th pick in the first rd a few yrs back? Well, I would put him on the block and see if we can use him to move up in draft to snag one of the top 3 WRs after Blackmon (also, not the kid from Notre Dame with 3 drinking citations). Also try for Vincent jackson(probably will not be able to get him away from SD, but i sure wish we would), and for sure Bowe from KC, another multi TD and multi catch guy with good hands. SF vs KC? I would bet he would be interested in that. Also Colston, but again i bet sean payton will see to it he stays. I would get a #1, #2 and #3 WR, and let our current 10th pick in the draft get traded to someone else for a high draft pick or another WR. I don't believe craps is a Harbaugh player. I will not be surprised to see him gone, replaced by 3 guys who really do want to play, and we don't have to worry about whether they will show up when the chips are down. Kyle, um, not sure about him, but i bet Coach gives him another shot. That leaves morgan as a possible # 3 .

Whatever happens, come start of coming season, expect alex to have 3 real life WRs to throw to and watch the turf balls become a thing of the past. Also, i would expect things like "Can the 9ers win a SB with alex" to disappear...whether we win the SB or not.

I didn't like the play calling either, but I gave up on that long time ago; when we tried to use the "spread offense" with Smith a few years back, it worked, and we never went back to it. After that, I just assume that play calling is done the way it is because they are afraid to let Smith run that type of offense for unknown reasons.
At this point, I don't care about the play calling, just what he is able to do with it. I think he did have WR's open. Its the definition of "open" that is the problem. Were they running free, with five yards of separation? Except for Vernon Davis, "no". But there were plenty of one-on-one opportunities where he could have made the throw, or kept his eyes down field for another second while stepping up in the pocket.

And this debate should not just be about one game anyway.

Originally posted by ninerfan818:
On the other hand he had like 5 drives to score and he couldn't do it. I just believe that if we had someone with more ability then the team could really go and win the Superbowl. The team gave up 13.3 points a game, that is why they won 13 regular season games. Alex did his job of not turning the ball over. He did that by not taking many chances amd he also was at the bottom or close to it in nearly every QB category.

It is all how you look at it I guess. I am thankful Alex did what he did in the off-season, regular season and post season. I would just like to see a QB that doesn't look to check down on every pass he throws. His YPA and YPC are atrocious. I often seem WR's in position to make catches but the ball is more often than not checked down and thrown well short of first downs. Again, I am pleased with what he did, but he didn't really do much in the grand scheme of things, the defense was STELLAR. Am I too stubborn?? I just see a window of opportunity and I don't want to see it blown.

Reality: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating/seasontype/2

17th in YPA despite a bad WR corps, one that led the NFL in drops per pass attempt. Alex is probably the only QB all year who had an INT because his WR let it pass through his hands and hit him in the helmet. Same WR who missed an easy deep TD catch because he couldn't find the ball.

11th in completion pct.
9th in QB rating
2nd in TD/INT ratio
1st in INT per pass attempt
19th in yards, 17th in TDs only because he was 20th in attempts

Name 1 significant stat in which he was at or close to the bottom of the league.

Oh yeah, sacks. He was sacked more than any QB despite how rarely he was allowed to throw.

he is gonna win one with the niners ,as long as we get a real wr,and stay strong on d

Originally posted by vaden:

Originally posted by ninerfan818:
On the other hand he had like 5 drives to score and he couldn't do it. I just believe that if we had someone with more ability then the team could really go and win the Superbowl. The team gave up 13.3 points a game, that is why they won 13 regular season games. Alex did his job of not turning the ball over. He did that by not taking many chances amd he also was at the bottom or close to it in nearly every QB category.

It is all how you look at it I guess. I am thankful Alex did what he did in the off-season, regular season and post season. I would just like to see a QB that doesn't look to check down on every pass he throws. His YPA and YPC are atrocious. I often seem WR's in position to make catches but the ball is more often than not checked down and thrown well short of first downs. Again, I am pleased with what he did, but he didn't really do much in the grand scheme of things, the defense was STELLAR. Am I too stubborn?? I just see a window of opportunity and I don't want to see it blown.

Reality: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating/seasontype/2

17th in YPA despite a bad WR corps, one that led the NFL in drops per pass attempt. Alex is probably the only QB all year who had an INT because his WR let it pass through his hands and hit him in the helmet. Same WR who missed an easy deep TD catch because he couldn't find the ball.

11th in completion pct.
9th in QB rating
2nd in TD/INT ratio
1st in INT per pass attempt
19th in yards, 17th in TDs only because he was 20th in attempts

Name 1 significant stat in which he was at or close to the bottom of the league.

Oh yeah, sacks. He was sacked more than any QB despite how rarely he was allowed to throw.

Sacks -- 32nd.
Passing yards per game -- 29th.
3rd down conversion % -- 31nd
Net yards per passing play -- 24th
Drops -- 32nd.

I'll use Drew Brees as an "elite" standard for comparison, just to have a clear comparison with arguably the best quarterback in the business.

Sacks -- How many times did we touch Brees yet not get the sack? How many times did Brees dodge a defender? If not for his uncanny ability to avoid taking sacks, we would have had at least 7-8 sacks in that game. Assuming he does that to every team he faces, those are a ton of sacks avoided. So yes, the quarterback is a big part of sack statistics. Brees is one of the best at it, if not the best. The best quarterbacks are usually very difficult to sack.

Yards per game -- Yards per game goes hand-in-hand with attempts per game, and attempts per game goes hand-and-and with 3rd down conversion %, because the more 3rd downs you complete, the less you have to kick field goals or punts, therefore the more attempts you get. This is one of the reasons why top quarterbacks get so much "opportunity". They stay on the field because they are moving the chains and not kicking a record amount of field goals like us.

3rd down conversion % -- Sometimes we run the ball in short yardage on 3rd down, but the large majority are passing plays. Not being able to stay on the field means you have to kick field goals or punt, it also means you get less attempts, which also means you get fewer yards and passing TDs. Some stats that stand out: The Saints kicked a league low 46 punts, we kicked an above league average 78 punts. We attempted a league high 52 field goals(!!!), which was 11 more than the second highest team. That is insane.

Net yards per passing play -- This is more than just how often you throw deep. Quarterbacks pick up a lot of yards with medium 10-20 yard completions. Elite players like Brees hit these medium passes all day long, and build up tons of passing yards over the course of a season.

Drops -- Take all of the dropped passes throughout the entire league. Some of them are perfect passes, most of them are poor passes. Our receivers dropped some well thrown balls this season, they also caught and dropped a lot of poorly thrown balls. The quarterbacks ball placement/touch plays just as much a part in drops as receiver ability. The elite quarterbacks make it almost too easy for their receivers.


Playing it safe makes you efficient, but playing it safe will never get you a good 3rd down conversion percentage, or big numbers with TDs or passing yards. There are positives as well as negatives to playing it safe. "A ship in the harbor is safe, but that's not what ships are made for."

Originally posted by BrianGO:

Originally posted by vaden:

Originally posted by ninerfan818:
On the other hand he had like 5 drives to score and he couldn't do it. I just believe that if we had someone with more ability then the team could really go and win the Superbowl. The team gave up 13.3 points a game, that is why they won 13 regular season games. Alex did his job of not turning the ball over. He did that by not taking many chances amd he also was at the bottom or close to it in nearly every QB category.

It is all how you look at it I guess. I am thankful Alex did what he did in the off-season, regular season and post season. I would just like to see a QB that doesn't look to check down on every pass he throws. His YPA and YPC are atrocious. I often seem WR's in position to make catches but the ball is more often than not checked down and thrown well short of first downs. Again, I am pleased with what he did, but he didn't really do much in the grand scheme of things, the defense was STELLAR. Am I too stubborn?? I just see a window of opportunity and I don't want to see it blown.

Reality: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating/seasontype/2

17th in YPA despite a bad WR corps, one that led the NFL in drops per pass attempt. Alex is probably the only QB all year who had an INT because his WR let it pass through his hands and hit him in the helmet. Same WR who missed an easy deep TD catch because he couldn't find the ball.

11th in completion pct.
9th in QB rating
2nd in TD/INT ratio
1st in INT per pass attempt
19th in yards, 17th in TDs only because he was 20th in attempts

Name 1 significant stat in which he was at or close to the bottom of the league.

Oh yeah, sacks. He was sacked more than any QB despite how rarely he was allowed to throw.

Sacks -- 32nd.
Passing yards per game -- 29th.
3rd down conversion % -- 31nd
Net yards per passing play -- 24th
Drops -- 32nd.

I'll use Drew Brees as an "elite" standard for comparison, just to have a clear comparison with arguably the best quarterback in the business.

Sacks -- How many times did we touch Brees yet not get the sack? How many times did Brees dodge a defender? If not for his uncanny ability to avoid taking sacks, we would have had at least 7-8 sacks in that game. Assuming he does that to every team he faces, those are a ton of sacks avoided. So yes, the quarterback is a big part of sack statistics. Brees is one of the best at it, if not the best. The best quarterbacks are usually very difficult to sack.

Yards per game -- Yards per game goes hand-in-hand with attempts per game, and attempts per game goes hand-and-and with 3rd down conversion %, because the more 3rd downs you complete, the less you have to kick field goals or punts, therefore the more attempts you get. This is one of the reasons why top quarterbacks get so much "opportunity". They stay on the field because they are moving the chains and not kicking a record amount of field goals like us.

3rd down conversion % -- Sometimes we run the ball in short yardage on 3rd down, but the large majority are passing plays. Not being able to stay on the field means you have to kick field goals or punt, it also means you get less attempts, which also means you get fewer yards and passing TDs. Some stats that stand out: The Saints kicked a league low 46 punts, we kicked an above league average 78 punts. We attempted a league high 52 field goals(!!!), which was 11 more than the second highest team. That is insane.

Net yards per passing play -- This is more than just how often you throw deep. Quarterbacks pick up a lot of yards with medium 10-20 yard completions. Elite players like Brees hit these medium passes all day long, and build up tons of passing yards over the course of a season.

Drops -- Take all of the dropped passes throughout the entire league. Some of them are perfect passes, most of them are poor passes. Our receivers dropped some well thrown balls this season, they also caught and dropped a lot of poorly thrown balls. The quarterbacks ball placement/touch plays just as much a part in drops as receiver ability. The elite quarterbacks make it almost too easy for their receivers.


Playing it safe makes you efficient, but playing it safe will never get you a good 3rd down conversion percentage, or big numbers with TDs or passing yards. There are positives as well as negatives to playing it safe. "A ship in the harbor is safe, but that's not what ships are made for."

Actually, 27th in YPG (check the link), and of course no mention of the fact that we were 1 one of only 3 teams to run more than pass. 31st in pass attempts, 3rd in rushing attempts. That was a far bigger factor in Alex's low passing yardage than his performance on 3rd down. Stafford was only 1.5% better on 3rd down, yet he had 49% more pass attempts. Alex was 0.2% better on 3rd down than Cam, yet Cam had 72 more pass attempts.

Alex averaged 17-19 more YPG the previous two seasons, not because he was better, but because he threw more.

Among 35 qualifying QBs, Alex was 23rd in conversion rate on 3rd down pass attempts at 35.9%. The reason we were 31st overall is because we were 19 of 93 on 3rd down when Alex didn't pass. Gore and Hunter were 10-44 on 3rd down. Marshawn Lynch had just as many conversions on 31 fewer attempts: http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFC&type=Rushing&rank=071&year=

On sacks and drops, certainly some of the blame goes to Alex, as it does to every QB, but OL and WR are far more responsible for those figures. It's not a coincidence or half Alex's fault that our OL allowed the most sacks and our WRs had the worst drop ratio. It's because our OL and WRs are bad. Over the two previous seasons combined, Alex was sacked just 3 more times on 272 more dropbacks. Did his pocket presence suddenly rapidly regress? But how can this be, in a world where Harbaugh the miracle worker gets all the credit for Alex's improvement?

Originally posted by vaden:

Originally posted by ninerfan818:
On the other hand he had like 5 drives to score and he couldn't do it. I just believe that if we had someone with more ability then the team could really go and win the Superbowl. The team gave up 13.3 points a game, that is why they won 13 regular season games. Alex did his job of not turning the ball over. He did that by not taking many chances amd he also was at the bottom or close to it in nearly every QB category.

It is all how you look at it I guess. I am thankful Alex did what he did in the off-season, regular season and post season. I would just like to see a QB that doesn't look to check down on every pass he throws. His YPA and YPC are atrocious. I often seem WR's in position to make catches but the ball is more often than not checked down and thrown well short of first downs. Again, I am pleased with what he did, but he didn't really do much in the grand scheme of things, the defense was STELLAR. Am I too stubborn?? I just see a window of opportunity and I don't want to see it blown.

Reality: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating/seasontype/2

17th in YPA despite a bad WR corps, one that led the NFL in drops per pass attempt. Alex is probably the only QB all year who had an INT because his WR let it pass through his hands and hit him in the helmet. Same WR who missed an easy deep TD catch because he couldn't find the ball.

11th in completion pct.
9th in QB rating
2nd in TD/INT ratio
1st in INT per pass attempt
19th in yards, 17th in TDs only because he was 20th in attempts

Name 1 significant stat in which he was at or close to the bottom of the league.

Oh yeah, sacks. He was sacked more than any QB despite how rarely he was allowed to throw.

How many of those sacks were because chilo was on the field?

We did this year....oh wait, Kyle Williams... how could I forget??

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
The Alex that played the New Orleans playoff game can win the Super Bowl.

The Alex that played the Giants playoff game will NEVER win a Super Bowl.

So who shows up? Alex #1 or Alex #2?

The Alex Smith that won against New Orleans connected with VD. Can win the Super Bowl

The Smith that played against the Giants continued to connect with VD for 2 TD, with no receiver help in both games, ALMOST got to the SB.

Pretty consistent to me. Which one will show up...? The Alex with VD connection or the Alex with mediocre injured receivers.

I know you have been a Smith supporter SD. Ironically you have became less of a supporter after Smith proved you right by getting the team to the NFC game and a KW fumble away from the SB. All this with decimated receiving core from injuries. You are letting the Smith haters spin getting the better of you

Yes vote is 69%? Lol. Too high, come on now.

Originally posted by BrianGO:


Playing it safe makes you efficient, but playing it safe will never get you a good 3rd down conversion percentage, or big numbers with TDs or passing yards. There are positives as well as negatives to playing it safe. "A ship in the harbor is safe, but that's not what ships are made for."

Just doesn't seem right to be comparing a QB that's been in the same system for 6-7 years to Alex in year ONE of this system.

Yes, we played things safe.... it was smart to do so for many reasons. BUT that does not mean we will continue to play it safe. Patience, people... if nothing else, listen to Joe Montana when he says it takes time to fully embrace the WCO.


Give Alex and the passing game an offseason to upgrade and work things out. Then after next season, you can more fairly begin to compare situations.

Originally posted by unst4bl3:

Originally posted by vaden:

Originally posted by ninerfan818:
On the other hand he had like 5 drives to score and he couldn't do it. I just believe that if we had someone with more ability then the team could really go and win the Superbowl. The team gave up 13.3 points a game, that is why they won 13 regular season games. Alex did his job of not turning the ball over. He did that by not taking many chances amd he also was at the bottom or close to it in nearly every QB category.

It is all how you look at it I guess. I am thankful Alex did what he did in the off-season, regular season and post season. I would just like to see a QB that doesn't look to check down on every pass he throws. His YPA and YPC are atrocious. I often seem WR's in position to make catches but the ball is more often than not checked down and thrown well short of first downs. Again, I am pleased with what he did, but he didn't really do much in the grand scheme of things, the defense was STELLAR. Am I too stubborn?? I just see a window of opportunity and I don't want to see it blown.

Reality: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating/seasontype/2

17th in YPA despite a bad WR corps, one that led the NFL in drops per pass attempt. Alex is probably the only QB all year who had an INT because his WR let it pass through his hands and hit him in the helmet. Same WR who missed an easy deep TD catch because he couldn't find the ball.

11th in completion pct.
9th in QB rating
2nd in TD/INT ratio
1st in INT per pass attempt
19th in yards, 17th in TDs only because he was 20th in attempts

Name 1 significant stat in which he was at or close to the bottom of the league.

Oh yeah, sacks. He was sacked more than any QB despite how rarely he was allowed to throw.

How many of those sacks were because chilo was on the field?

two of our most sacked games were with chilo on the field (ravens and cowboys)

Originally posted by BrianGO:

Sacks -- How many times did we touch Brees yet not get the sack? How many times did Brees dodge a defender? If not for his uncanny ability to avoid taking sacks, we would have had at least 7-8 sacks in that game. Assuming he does that to every team he faces, those are a ton of sacks avoided. So yes, the quarterback is a big part of sack statistics. Brees is one of the best at it, if not the best. The best quarterbacks are usually very difficult to sack.

Yards per game -- Yards per game goes hand-in-hand with attempts per game, and attempts per game goes hand-and-and with 3rd down conversion %, because the more 3rd downs you complete, the less you have to kick field goals or punts, therefore the more attempts you get. This is one of the reasons why top quarterbacks get so much "opportunity". They stay on the field because they are moving the chains and not kicking a record amount of field goals like us.


Net yards per passing play -- This is more than just how often you throw deep. Quarterbacks pick up a lot of yards with medium 10-20 yard completions. Elite players like Brees hit these medium passes all day long, and build up tons of passing yards over the course of a season.


Playing it safe makes you efficient, but playing it safe will never get you a good 3rd down conversion percentage, or big numbers with TDs or passing yards. There are positives as well as negatives to playing it safe. "A ship in the harbor is safe, but that's not what ships are made for."

Sacks--Harbaugh and Smith have both talked about taking smart sacks. On third down, rather than risk a turnover, Harbaugh wants Smith to take the sack or throw the ball away so Lee can change field position. Throw the ball away if your are behind and need time, take a sack if you are ahead. Defensive opponents have said all year that Smith is a hard guy to bring down...but when a DLman is coming right up the middle and DEs are closing in where is he suppose to escape?

Yards per game--this is the most overblown stat in football. Montana consistently underperformed compared to Marino, Elway, and other pass oriented players and yet he WON. Smith is 14-4 this year so case closed.

Net yards--no YAC means lower net. Brady thanked his receivers because he doesn't throw the ball further than 15 yards and they are tremendous at YAC.

Playing safe--that is Harbaugh's philosophy this year. Once again, be honest and blame Harbaugh for this and not Smith.

Yes, but he's never going to be the reason we're there. He wouldn't get us there with an average defense and ST.

Originally posted by Overkill:
Yes, but he's never going to be the reason we're there. He wouldn't get us there with an average defense and ST.

Never say never...oops!

I think we need to factor in becoming cold or feeling like they (the WRs) are not a part of the offense into the drop statistic that everyone is throwing down on our receivers. I mean when a receiver is only getting a few catchable passes, if that, thrown his way during the game, they aren't going to be able to get into the zone or feel warmed up and ready to catch anything that comes their way. Rather, they become cold and feel left out, making them more likely to not be ready when and if the ball comes their way. I believe that this has an effect on our WRs and we need to get them more involved in the offense with passes that they can catch. Rather than throwing the ball away or into the dirt, of course this is fine when absolutely necessary to avoid a sack for example, our QB needs to be willing to throw up some balls that our receivers feel like they can catch to get them feeling more involved and help them get into the zone.