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Brees, 1.5 seconds, and alex

  • Shemp
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 26,589
It takes more than 1.5 seconds to wait for a receiver to be absolutely, positively open with no chance of an INT.
Originally posted by Shaj:
It takes more than 1.5 seconds to wait for a receiver to be absolutely, positively open with no chance of an INT.

Point?
Originally posted by Shaj:
It takes more than 1.5 seconds to wait for a receiver to be absolutely, positively open with no chance of an INT.

Throughout Smiths career when everyone complained at our OL not giving Alex 3 seconds to throw or even 2.5. Some of said if you need 3 seconds to throw then the OL isnt the problem.
  • dj43
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  • Posts: 20,136
Originally posted by Jersey9er:
I dont buy the getting the ball out in 1.5. I dont even need a stopwatch and some of those throws he had from 3 to 5 seconds to get rid of the ball. I mean i wonder if you saw the 3 int's that actually landed in the defenders hands and they couldnt come up with the catch. I can assure you that we wont drop 3 int's.

Also I found this interesting, and it's from a retired NFL Expert. IT spoke volumes:

Q: Can Smith make all the throws?

Expert: You're asking the wrong question. It's not if he can. But will he? If he doesn't think it's sure-fire, he won't throw it. Brett Favre and Drew Brees will take the shot. Some quarterbacks think, 'You're supposed to be an all-star receiver, you make play.' There are more great catches than throws. If a quarterback waits until a guy is a lock to be wide open, those throws would be few and far between.If the 49ers had better wide receivers, Smith might have a better opportunity for his receivers to go get it, to go make catches for him. Part of his reticence could be who is on the other end as the intended receiver. Last year I wouldn't throw anything at Michael Crabtree. He wasted a whole season. He was a dog.This season 49ers were 23rd in the NFL in total first downs with 282. New Orleans was first with 416. The 49ers were next-to-last in third-down conversions at 29.4 percent, not even 3 of ten. Can you imagine they still finished 13-3? Jim has done a great job analyzing what he has and designing his offense around what it can do.

Q: Can the 49ers go deep in the playoffs with that style of offense?

Expert: No, not with that style of offense. But with their kicking game and defense and not turning the ball over, yes. But not with that offense alone. If it becomes a shoot-out with their third-down percentage and lack of chunk plays, they are at a disadvantage.Who is their big-play, go-to receiver? Vernon Davis is probably one at his position. He has the ability to go deep and get the matchups he wants against a strong safety. How many strong safeties are good enough to cover him man to man?You've got to have receivers who make defenders worry about covering the field horizontally and goal line to goal line. If they don't fear your receivers can run by them, they won't respect you. You've got to put the fear of God in them that you can run by them. Ted Ginn is not a real wide receiver. He's more of a gadget guy. They have not developed him on the vertical concept.



Here's the link: http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20120107/NEWS/120109628?p=all&tc=pgall

Overall, it's the first time in a while that someone actually put the reality of our WR core in an article. Finally saying Ginn is not a true fluid WR, and Crabs last year, called him a dog (Wow, that was a big one).

So we dont have to keep hearing it's the QB, QB, QB. Because I will say this, when watching the Broncos game, and the Saints game; Just wow, watching how many of those passes the WR had to adjust to catch, almost on every other play. But they adjusted, rose above the defender, even some turned around in the air 360 style, just to make the catch. I mean to be honest, I dont trust some of these WR's myself to throw them to just a spot and truly believe they will fight for the ball. Give me Fitz, or Johnson (Calvin or Andre), and you will see a team really plan their defense around them and Gore. Now, its not that teams dont fear the QB IMHO, its that teams dont respect our WR core.

Two points:

1. The reason Brees can get the ball out as quickly as he does is because of the time he and his receivers have had with this offense.

2. The quality of his receiving corp, particularly how well they read defenses, gives him a great deal of confidence to throw the ball knowing if he is slightly off target they will go get it.

The main thrust of this article underscores why most early draft mocks have the 49ers taking a WR in the first round, second at the latest.
Originally posted by JiksJuicy:
Originally posted by Shaj:
It takes more than 1.5 seconds to wait for a receiver to be absolutely, positively open with no chance of an INT.

Point?


"reducing football into the stark terms of my hatred of Alex Smith is the only way I can talk about the sport."
Smith as been pretty good beating the blitz this year, and he will have to be on his A-game on Saturday. The Saints cause a lot of disruption even though they didn't get a lot of sacks this year. Whether that means getting rid of the ball quickly and being decisive or having plays designed to move the pocket around, we have to have a plan; we need Smith to not only avoid turnovers but also to avoid sacks.

the most important thing for our offense in this game, though, as through most of the year, is our running game. we should be able to run the ball against the Saints, even if it is a grinding, slow-moving run game. If our D plays to form and we can control the clock and get scores, even if we're getting more field goals than touchdowns, then we should win.
  • Shemp
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 26,589
Originally posted by HessianDud:
Smith as been pretty good beating the blitz this year, and he will have to be on his A-game on Saturday. The Saints cause a lot of disruption even though they didn't get a lot of sacks this year. Whether that means getting rid of the ball quickly and being decisive or having plays designed to move the pocket around, we have to have a plan; we need Smith to not only avoid turnovers but also to avoid sacks.

the most important thing for our offense in this game, though, as through most of the year, is our running game. we should be able to run the ball against the Saints, even if it is a grinding, slow-moving run game. If our D plays to form and we can control the clock and get scores, even if we're getting more field goals than touchdowns, then we should win.

If we get more field goals than TDs against the Saints or Packers, we will lose. Write that down.
There was a post-game video analyzing 4-5 specific plays where Drew Brees was pressured and got the ball out to the checkdown or hot read under 2 seconds. OP probly took that small sample size and thought every play of the game was like that.
Originally posted by HessianDud:
Smith as been pretty good beating the blitz this year, and he will have to be on his A-game on Saturday. The Saints cause a lot of disruption even though they didn't get a lot of sacks this year. Whether that means getting rid of the ball quickly and being decisive or having plays designed to move the pocket around, we have to have a plan; we need Smith to not only avoid turnovers but also to avoid sacks.

the most important thing for our offense in this game, though, as through most of the year, is our running game. we should be able to run the ball against the Saints, even if it is a grinding, slow-moving run game. If our D plays to form and we can control the clock and get scores, even if we're getting more field goals than touchdowns, then we should win.

Good points. WHile our running game doesn't need to be explosive, it sure would be nice for Gore/Hunter to come out and be able to set the tone. Maybe bust a couple 20+'ers. As for bringing his A game, that goes for this whole team. We need him to make the throws, we need receivers to make the catches, we need Oline to allow Smith at least 1.1 seconds to throw the ball and provide some running lanes. And on the other side of the ball we are facing Drew Brees, enough said.

Hate to admit it, but I'm pretty damn nervous about this game. I know we can beat these guys, but I think it will come down to whom-ever makes the most mistakes.
THE KEY IS GOING TO BE LINE MAN FILLING THEIR LANES, STRONG PASS RUSH, ESPECIALLY FROM ALDON, STROMG DISCIPLINED LINEBACKER PLAY, OCCASIONAL SAFETY BLITZES AND STRONG CORNERBACK COVERAGES AND EVERYONE MUST BE STRONG ON THEIR TACKLING SKILLS. DO THIS AND I THINK WE HAVE A SHOT.
  • dj43
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 20,136
Originally posted by Shaj:
It takes more than 1.5 seconds to wait for a receiver to be absolutely, positively open with no chance of an INT.

Not if the receivers and the QB have had enough time together to fully understand the interworking relationship between the two. However, there is no such thing as NO chance of an INT. There is always that chance for a variety of reasons.

The key point here is that Brees and the entire NO offense has been together for years. There are multiple players playing at Pro Bowl levels in that offense. The receivers are second only to Green Bay in terms of depth and quality.

A key component of that quality is the SIZE of their receivers. Excluding Lance Moore (unavailable due to injury), their WRs average 6'2". TEs are 6'5" and 6'6". The NO front office has shown excellent insight into the impact of the new rules against hitting a defenseless receiver. With receivers no longer having to worry about getting smacked in the ribs while fully extended for the ball, they have drafted tall receivers that can go up above DBs who average 6' or shorter. This gives Brees a big advantage in terms of trust. They are playing the game above the heads of the DBs in many cases. A receiver does not have to have horizontal separation to be open if they have a 12" reach advantage over the DB. The NO receivers are the future of the passing game in the NFL. While there will always be a certain spot for a Kyle Williams, his lack of height will always work against him and the QB.

Lots of things to consider in evaluation of why a QB can get the ball out quickly.
Can we get pressure with just our starting Nickle DL? Can just Aldon, Justin, Ray and Brooks collapse that pocket toward Brees? If we can, then it truly will be a long night for him. Then, we run run run with Gore and Co. and keep him on ice on the sidelines. Then, 1.5 sec ain't going to matter worth a darn to them.

Our defense will dictate terms!
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by HessianDud:
Smith as been pretty good beating the blitz this year, and he will have to be on his A-game on Saturday. The Saints cause a lot of disruption even though they didn't get a lot of sacks this year. Whether that means getting rid of the ball quickly and being decisive or having plays designed to move the pocket around, we have to have a plan; we need Smith to not only avoid turnovers but also to avoid sacks.

the most important thing for our offense in this game, though, as through most of the year, is our running game. we should be able to run the ball against the Saints, even if it is a grinding, slow-moving run game. If our D plays to form and we can control the clock and get scores, even if we're getting more field goals than touchdowns, then we should win.

If we get more field goals than TDs against the Saints or Packers, we will lose. Write that down.

depends on how many points we give up. each team has an offense and a defense. if we have two touchdowns and four field goals and only give up two touchdowns and two field goals-----add it up.
  • Shemp
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 26,589
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by Shaj:
It takes more than 1.5 seconds to wait for a receiver to be absolutely, positively open with no chance of an INT.

Not if the receivers and the QB have had enough time together to fully understand the interworking relationship between the two. However, there is no such thing as NO chance of an INT. There is always that chance for a variety of reasons.

The key point here is that Brees and the entire NO offense has been together for years. There are multiple players playing at Pro Bowl levels in that offense. The receivers are second only to Green Bay in terms of depth and quality.

A key component of that quality is the SIZE of their receivers. Excluding Lance Moore (unavailable due to injury), their WRs average 6'2". TEs are 6'5" and 6'6". The NO front office has shown excellent insight into the impact of the new rules against hitting a defenseless receiver. With receivers no longer having to worry about getting smacked in the ribs while fully extended for the ball, they have drafted tall receivers that can go up above DBs who average 6' or shorter. This gives Brees a big advantage in terms of trust. They are playing the game above the heads of the DBs in many cases. A receiver does not have to have horizontal separation to be open if they have a 12" reach advantage over the DB. The NO receivers are the future of the passing game in the NFL. While there will always be a certain spot for a Kyle Williams, his lack of height will always work against him and the QB.

Lots of things to consider in evaluation of why a QB can get the ball out quickly.

If Drew Brees played lousy, couldn't we chalk it up to his measly 6' stature? Zack Thomas was way too diminutive for his position as well, as was Dwight Freeney, as is Darren Sproles. I think either you play well or you don't. It's not your intention, but you are making excuses for a QB that flat out plays well. And if it was Smith, you'd be making excuses the other direction. This is what I'm talking about.
Originally posted by JiksJuicy:
Originally posted by HessianDud:
Smith as been pretty good beating the blitz this year, and he will have to be on his A-game on Saturday. The Saints cause a lot of disruption even though they didn't get a lot of sacks this year. Whether that means getting rid of the ball quickly and being decisive or having plays designed to move the pocket around, we have to have a plan; we need Smith to not only avoid turnovers but also to avoid sacks.

the most important thing for our offense in this game, though, as through most of the year, is our running game. we should be able to run the ball against the Saints, even if it is a grinding, slow-moving run game. If our D plays to form and we can control the clock and get scores, even if we're getting more field goals than touchdowns, then we should win.

Good points. WHile our running game doesn't need to be explosive, it sure would be nice for Gore/Hunter to come out and be able to set the tone. Maybe bust a couple 20+'ers. As for bringing his A game, that goes for this whole team. We need him to make the throws, we need receivers to make the catches, we need Oline to allow Smith at least 1.1 seconds to throw the ball and provide some running lanes. And on the other side of the ball we are facing Drew Brees, enough said.

Hate to admit it, but I'm pretty damn nervous about this game. I know we can beat these guys, but I think it will come down to whom-ever makes the most mistakes.

i'm very nervous about this game. and you're right: everyone needs to be at their best. we can handle adversity, but we cannot overcome a ton of mistakes. a close game favors us, and the only way to keep it close is to make few mistakes, and no big ones--like muffed punts or mis-fired snaps that go through the back of the endzone.

the Saints gave up 5 YPC. If we can get that, we're good. I would love to see some classic Frank Gore long runs, but even if we can just grind it out and control the clock, and always get positive yardage, we can shorten the game, keep Brees off the field, and get ourselves into scoring position.
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