How Long Should an Extension/New Contract for Alex Smith Be?

What's interesting is that niner fans love to hate on the national media/other fan bases for reflexively bashing Smith based on their old memories. But...

This will absolutely help us resign him. Right now, an enemy GM probably can't make an exorbitant offer for Smith, even if this GM figures Smith deserves it. He simply can't stand up in front of his fan base and say "Alex Smith is the answer to our prayers!" They'll riot.

I think Alex knows his best bet at long-term success is right where he's at. I hear Maiocco say the same thing on an ESPN interview. Smith knows how hard it is to transition to a new system/coaching staff and unless something stupid happens like the Redskins throw $100 million at him he'd be crazy not to stick with the coach who legitimately is saving his career right before our eyes.

Niners offer something respectable and as long as their in the ballpark, Smith stays for at least the next two years.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
That is right in the neighborhood of the numbers he will be offered if his play continues to be strong. A minimum five years will be offered by another squad, so the team is not going to retain him for a 1, 2, 3, or probably 4 years contract. There are still too many QB-starved teams in the league, and not enough top-level entry QB's coming out of college and free agents to meet the demand. These teams need help, badly:
1) Indianapolis
2) Miami
3) Seattle
4) Denver
5) KC (Denver and KC combined for a total of 162 passing yards on Sunday)
6) Washington

If money was the only factor, then it'd be hard for Alex to come back. But I don't even think he'd entertain thoughts with other teams unless the 49ers gave a really low-ball offer. Things are just TOO good here. If the season were to end tomorrow, Alex Smith's agent and the 49ers would immediately be negotiating a contract. The front office wants to see how far Alex can go so that they can determine his worth.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
That is right in the neighborhood of the numbers he will be offered if his play continues to be strong. A minimum five years will be offered by another squad, so the team is not going to retain him for a 1, 2, 3, or probably 4 years contract. There are still too many QB-starved teams in the league, and not enough top-level entry QB's coming out of college and free agents to meet the demand. These teams need help, badly:
1) Indianapolis
2) Miami
3) Seattle
4) Denver
5) KC (Denver and KC combined for a total of 162 passing yards on Sunday)
6) Washington

Curious why you think this. I see this upcoming draft as one of the most QB-heavy in years.

At least four of the six teams you listed will likely be drafting a QB in round 1. A fifth, KC, is committed to Matt Cassel (signed in 2009 to a six year, $63 million deal, with $28 million guaranteed) and will absolutely not be making a play for Alex Smith.

Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Landry Jones, and Robert Griffin III are all first-half of the first round picks. Later on, mature guys like Wheeden and Case Keenum will be expected to come in and play immediately.

Originally posted by dhp318:

Originally posted by taney71:
I think you underestimate the year Smith is having. I think he gets at least a 3 year contract now and probably a 5 year one after this Giants game. Smith's agent would be stupid not to get him a 5 year contract with a 15 to 20 million guart. number.

Leaguewide skepticism lowers his market value. I'd think a 4 year contract is likely... around 40 million

even though this is the highest I think he would get......it is crazy to think that if get got this deal, the 9ers would have given Alex over $100 million dollars for his career here.

edit- oops, actually it might be around $95 mill.

Originally posted by jesserdumas2:
I think Alex knows his best bet at long-term success is right where he's at. I hear Maiocco say the same thing on an ESPN interview. Smith knows how hard it is to transition to a new system/coaching staff and unless something stupid happens like the Redskins throw $100 million at him he'd be crazy not to stick with the coach who legitimately is saving his career right before our eyes.

Niners offer something respectable and as long as their in the ballpark, Smith stays for at least the next two years.

Redskins do run the WCO, and Shanahan used to be good with QBs.

don't know if Shanny will still be around though, with Snyder in control.

Based on Harbaugh's assessment, 5 year deal would be nice. QBs can play into the mid 30s.

I would be highly surprised to see anything less than 4 to 5 years, with an average compensation of ~$10M/year.

Folks are letting past disappointments with Alex blind them to the market reality. The fact is that he can play, and our past regimes of incompetent coaches are what kept his ability from fully emerging.

For goodness sakes, Kansas City signed Matt Cassel to a 6-year, $63M front-loaded contract.

Originally posted by Afrikan:

Originally posted by dhp318:

Originally posted by taney71:
I think you underestimate the year Smith is having. I think he gets at least a 3 year contract now and probably a 5 year one after this Giants game. Smith's agent would be stupid not to get him a 5 year contract with a 15 to 20 million guart. number.

Leaguewide skepticism lowers his market value. I'd think a 4 year contract is likely... around 40 million

even though this is the highest I think he would get......it is crazy to think that if get got this deal, the 9ers would have given Alex over $100 million dollars for his career here.

edit- oops, actually it might be around $95 mill.

He never came close to maxing his original contract, and he did restructure for a lower deal later on too.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
That is right in the neighborhood of the numbers he will be offered if his play continues to be strong. A minimum five years will be offered by another squad, so the team is not going to retain him for a 1, 2, 3, or probably 4 years contract. There are still too many QB-starved teams in the league, and not enough top-level entry QB's coming out of college and free agents to meet the demand. These teams need help, badly:
1) Indianapolis
2) Miami
3) Seattle
4) Denver
5) KC (Denver and KC combined for a total of 162 passing yards on Sunday)
6) Washington

I don't think teams like Denver, Indy, Seattle, KC will be looking for a QB like Smith. They'll find their solutions in the draft... I think a lot of Alex Smith's success is attributed to Jim Harbaugh. With questions about whether he can thrive outside of Harbaugh's system (which also produced Josh Johnson and Andrew Luck), it's not clear to me why those aforementioned teams would offer a 50+ million contract when they can have a rookie with (theoretically) higher upside, no baggage, a fresh face for the franchise, and for far less money. Indy also has Manning/No. 1 pick, no way Indy signs Smith.

Furthermore, with the recent successes of rookie QBs, teams likely don't see a need for a stopgap starter to develop their rookie on the bench. They'd prefer to save the money and give the experience to the rookie by throwing him to the fire, a la Dalton, Newton, and to a lesser extent, Ponder.

I'm not sure Smith's value is any higher than Cassel's was coming out as a FA. Cassel also led a winning, playoff caliber team, but did so without all the baggage of previous injury and poor play... he succeedd in his first year as a starter, leading many to believe he had even greater upside to justify that contract. Smith's reputation around the league isn't that high as far as his ability to lead a winning team. Therefore, I don't think KC would target Smith, nor would a team offer a Cassel-like contract.

I could in theory see Washington and Miami because they might not be in position to draft a top-tier signal caller, and their QB situation is horrendous. But their FO and team situations are also terrible, and if SF offers a contract close those competing ones, SF will win out - I think Harbaugh has earned Smith's trust and loyalty.

The other thing to consider is that if Smith wins the Super Bowl, all hell breaks loose from a money standpoint (let us pray this happens)

Originally posted by Next9erDynasty:
I would be highly surprised to see anything less than 4 to 5 years, with an average compensation of ~$10M/year.

Folks are letting past disappointments with Alex blind them to the market reality. The fact is that he can play, and our past regimes of incompetent coaches are what kept his ability from fully emerging.

For goodness sakes, Kansas City signed Matt Cassel to a 6-year, $63M front-loaded contract.

Let's not forget that the Packers gave Aaron Rodgers a $11 million/year average deal the first year he became the starter, in the middle of an disappointing season (team's, not Rodgers) before he truly became elite. Contracts are based on future anticipation, not the past.

Originally posted by fastforward:

Originally posted by Next9erDynasty:
I would be highly surprised to see anything less than 4 to 5 years, with an average compensation of ~$10M/year.

Folks are letting past disappointments with Alex blind them to the market reality. The fact is that he can play, and our past regimes of incompetent coaches are what kept his ability from fully emerging.

For goodness sakes, Kansas City signed Matt Cassel to a 6-year, $63M front-loaded contract.

Let's not forget that the Packers gave Aaron Rodgers a $11 million/year average deal the first year he became the starter, in the middle of an disappointing season (team's, not Rodgers) before he truly became elite. Contracts are based on future anticipation, not the past.

And the future with Alex Smith has suddenly started to look a whole lot brighter ...

Franchise him, then trade him to IND for #1 overall. BAM, we get Luck!

In all seriousness though, if he continues to play well and plays good in the playoffs, they are not going to let him leave. If his play suffers or he bombs in the playoffs, they may reconsider.

let's barry zito this fool.

Originally posted by Next9erDynasty:
I would be highly surprised to see anything less than 4 to 5 years, with an average compensation of ~$10M/year.

Folks are letting past disappointments with Alex blind them to the market reality. The fact is that he can play, and our past regimes of incompetent coaches are what kept his ability from fully emerging.

For goodness sakes, Kansas City signed Matt Cassel to a 6-year, $63M front-loaded contract.

This. You get it.