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What is the chance we end up having a complete turn around?

Originally posted by titan:
Winning 3 games is a complete turn around! Getting the players Harbaugh wants and taking over the league is what I am waiting for.

Did you see our supposed QB of the future last night on MNF? Josh Johnson? Kid sure is fast...
Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
The lower record we make the playoffs with, the higher our draft pick. Something to keep in mind!

uh no

its where you finish in the playoffs

It's kinda both. If you're the #1 or #2 seed and get the bye week you automatically go above the 4 teams that lose the Wild Card games.

Of course, SF getting #1 or #2 is not likely, though they could end up with tie-breakers over all but Dallas in the East and the Bucs in the South if they beat them.
Well, the guys at ESPN Insider have a similar view...There is an article by Vince Verhei of Football Outsiders.

He actually congratulates the Niners for being the first NFL team to reach the playoffs....jokingly of course. Still, He said that according to Football Outsiders' playoff odds report the Niners have a league high 89.1 percent chance of making the playoffs AFTER beating Philly. The reasons:

Only team with a two game lead in the division (3-1 baby!!!)
Given level of competition within the West (The rest of the West is 2-10!)
Our divisional opponents' schedules (IE: The Rams brutal schedule the first seven weeks of the season)

Then he mentions the points that will keep the Niners winning:

1. Win TO battle--We are at +8 right now in TO margin, tied for 1st with Detroit
2. Play dominant run D--Helllo McFly...26 games w/o a 100 yrd rusher! Held McCoy to just 18 yds.
3. Excel in the kicking game--Except for Philly, we aren't too to shabby plus add Ginn's two TDs

He says we can get to the playoffs with these metrics. Hmmmmm, fascinating though, nonetheless.

PS Sando addresses this piece in today's NFC West Blog...http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest
[ Edited by ninertico on Oct 4, 2011 at 12:17 PM ]
Originally posted by ninertico:
Well, the guys at ESPN Insider have a similar view...There is an article by Vince Verhei of Football Outsiders.

He actually congratulates the Niners for being the first NFL team to reach the playoffs....jokingly of course. Still, He said that according to Football Outsiders' playoff odds report the Niners have a league high 89.1 percent chance of making the playoffs AFTER beating Philly. The reasons:

Only team with a two game lead in the division (3-1 baby!!!)
Given level of competition within the West (The rest of the West is 2-10!)
Our divisional opponents' schedules (IE: The Rams brutal schedule the first seven weeks of the season)

Then he mentions the points that will keep the Niners winning:

1. Win TO battle--We are at +8 right now in TO margin, tied for 1st with Detroit
2. Play dominant run D--Helllo McFly...26 games w/o a 100 yrd rusher! Held McCoy to just 18 yds.
3. Excel in the kicking game--Except for Philly, we aren't too to shabby plus add Ginn's two TDs

He says we can get to the playoffs with these metrics. Hmmmmm, fascinating though, nonetheless.

Now this is my kind of party.
  • Otter
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 22,936
Can we get through the Bucs and Lions game before we start talking about what our record at the end of the year might be.

We're a fumble and a couple of missed field goals away from being 2-2. We're an Alex Smith injury away from a lost season.

There's still 12 games to play, lots of football left.
  • fryet
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,838
Playing the 3-1 Bucs and then the 4-0 Lions, we can easily be 3-3 after the next 2 games, at which going 11-5 or better seems unlikely. We would probably still be in the only team in the NFC West with 3 wins (:. Personally, I expect the 49ers to split the games, and have a 4-2 record, which is still quite good.
Originally posted by Otter:
Can we get through the Bucs and Lions game before we start talking about what our record at the end of the year might be.

We're a fumble and a couple of missed field goals away from being 2-2. We're an Alex Smith injury away from a lost season.

There's still 12 games to play, lots of football left.

I dont know who wronged you recently but i will seek revenge on them. I dont like this new Otter
The team is off to a great start. Partly, because Harbaugh has injected some life into the team, partly due to the poor play of our opponents so far in 2011 (The Seahawks are 1-3, the Cowboys 2-2, Bengals 2-2 and Eagles 1-3, mostly due to great defense and solid special teams (with a few glitches this week). I'm not sure if we have really played a good team so far, but a 3-1 record is a 3-1 record. In the NFC West, that is gold.

In the end, it doesn't really matter how well or poorly they have played from week to week. They are simply winning, and taking two straight roadies, especially on EST time is virtually a miracle. It is difficult for any team to accomplish this, so the sun is much brighter in 2011.

I'm still not sold on the team at this point in being anything special. It is much more likely that we win 8 games and get into the playoffs than a few weeks ago, but just a week ago, we were stating how the OL is a terrible disaster, and the offense anemic. The NFL is played week to week, so any one week, good or bad, cannot be overemphasized. It is trends we are looking for, and the trend of winning two road games, pretty or ugly, is a good sign. The next three weeks will show the world whether we are contenders or pretenders. Coming out of it with a 4-3 record would put us in great shape for a playoff game, 6-1 would make us one of the favorites in the NFC.
Originally posted by billbird2111:
I don't know what to believe, to be brutally honest. It just doesn't seem possible that Harbaugh could do this in less than a full season, but we beat the Eaglets and beat them in their own house dang it! That isn't just smoke and mirrors.

If we beat Tampa, and then beat the undefeated Lions? Oh yeah, I'll be drinking the koolaid -- and probably eating plenty of crow based on the things I've written about Alex Smith.

But we're not there yet. Tampa. The focus is on Tampa.
Admit it Bill, it will be the best tasting crow ever served. I don't think we are there yet, but the product we are seeing on the field is not what we have been seeing for the past 8-9 years. With some luck and hard work, this might be a playoff team that no one wants to play against. I am hoping the secondary will tighten up the coverage some, that and the o line are the issues right now, I think the talent is there on the line, they are just struggling to get the new scheme down.
Originally posted by Otter:
Can we get through the Bucs and Lions game before we start talking about what our record at the end of the year might be.

We're a fumble and a couple of missed field goals away from being 2-2. We're an Alex Smith injury away from a lost season.

There's still 12 games to play, lots of football left.

Now I no why you have a (-) infront of your 24k posts.....Every post is negative.... ...just kidding. Dont ban me, I need friends.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
The team is off to a great start. Partly, because Harbaugh has injected some life into the team, partly due to the poor play of our opponents so far in 2011 (The Seahawks are 1-3, the Cowboys 2-2, Bengals 2-2 and Eagles 1-3, mostly due to great defense and solid special teams (with a few glitches this week). I'm not sure if we have really played a good team so far, but a 3-1 record is a 3-1 record. In the NFC West, that is gold.

In the end, it doesn't really matter how well or poorly they have played from week to week. They are simply winning, and taking two straight roadies, especially on EST time is virtually a miracle. It is difficult for any team to accomplish this, so the sun is much brighter in 2011.

I'm still not sold on the team at this point in being anything special. It is much more likely that we win 8 games and get into the playoffs than a few weeks ago, but just a week ago, we were stating how the OL is a terrible disaster, and the offense anemic. The NFL is played week to week, so any one week, good or bad, cannot be overemphasized. It is trends we are looking for, and the trend of winning two road games, pretty or ugly, is a good sign. The next three weeks will show the world whether we are contenders or pretenders. Coming out of it with a 4-3 record would put us in great shape for a playoff game, 6-1 would make us one of the favorites in the NFC.

1. We have been winning in spite of some weaknesses.
2. We are not doing anything tricky but we are outsmarting the opponent with timing of the play calling
3. DEFENSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It's going to be an up and down year. 2 steps forward and one step back. We will move forward but baby steps. The big jump will come next year after a full off season under Harbaugh and a new draft class. (Too bad the Colts are going to get Luck especially after having 10yrs with Peyton.) Hopefully Dobbs, Aldon, Boone and few other players can get some experience and we can pick up a CB and Center in the draft. If we can continue to roll out 5-6 new plays each week it should help the offense because none of the other teams have film on those plays. It will also help that the offense feels comfortable with more of the playbook.
So far we have been in every game and could be 4-0. But we played well and had some good luck in the Philly game. There is plenty of work to do and we need a healthy dose of consistency in all phases of the game. But Harbaugh has been consistent in staying with the "plan" and keeps trying to bring reality into play - that the team must keep working on things and they have not arrived yet. Defense has been good but the backfield let many yards accumulate on the field. Red zone defense has been really good. It looks like Aldon Smith is beginnng to play himself into the starting lineup so our pass rush will continue to develop. Ahmad Brooks has been pretty consistent. Front three have been playing well on the defense. Willis has been strngely "absent" so far this year but Bowman has picked up any realistic slack. Carlos Rogers has been giving us good coverage and hopefully the backfield will gel and get some coverage skills. Goldson has been playing well and getting a lot of tackles, but don't know how his coverage has been? So defense is medium high.

On offense Smith has been pretty consistent in terms of turnovers and doing just enough to win. I don't know if Harbaugh has him reigned in or if Harbaugh is calling games according to the needs of the team. Hunter has been energizing to the team, and Gore finally gave us a taste of what he can be if he can hold up for the rest of the season. Miller has been a pleasant surprise and seems to be getting better. So the big issues now is can the Oline gel and become consistent? Will the game plans indicate to try to be more aggressive in the 1st half or do we need a half to feel out the opponent and then start playing? Seems like everyone is still learning what the team can do and how to get the most out of everyone on a consistent basis.

With the above in mind I think we can beat the Buccaneers this Sunday. I think playing Dallas and Philadelphia close has given the team the confidence that they can play with most anyone, except Green Bay and New England and New Orleans, and have a good chance of winning if 50% of the breaks come our way.
remember he said this will be 16 one game season, we need to do this one game at a time. not looking ahead, but i like the fact he is really interacting with his players and keeping all together regardless of the position they play. So they can get to know each other.
Speaking for myself, I'm just happy to finally feel that the team has a chance to win every game they play ...