Well, the guys at ESPN Insider have a similar view...There is an article by Vince Verhei of Football Outsiders.
He actually congratulates the Niners for being the first NFL team to reach the playoffs....jokingly of course. Still, He said that according to Football Outsiders' playoff odds report the Niners have a league high 89.1 percent chance of making the playoffs AFTER beating Philly. The reasons:
Only team with a two game lead in the division (3-1 baby!!!)
Given level of competition within the West (The rest of the West is 2-10!
Our divisional opponents' schedules (IE: The Rams brutal schedule the first seven weeks of the season)
Then he mentions the points that will keep the Niners winning:
1. Win TO battle--We are at +8 right now in TO margin, tied for 1st with Detroit
2. Play dominant run D--Helllo McFly...26 games w/o a 100 yrd rusher! Held McCoy to just 18 yds.
3. Excel in the kicking game--Except for Philly, we aren't too to shabby plus add Ginn's two TDs
He says we can get to the playoffs with these metrics. Hmmmmm, fascinating though, nonetheless.
PS Sando addresses this piece in today's NFC West Blog...http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest
[ Edited by ninertico on Oct 4, 2011 at 12:17 PM ]