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Keep the points or take the first down?

Originally posted by Blitz:
As I suspected, the issue is ridunculous, now let it go people:


Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats says the 49ers' win probability was .90 after Akers' field goal, and it would have been .91 had Harbaugh accepted the penalty. Burke: "In the grand scheme, this is a very small error. The common punt or FG attempt on 4th and short in most game situations is usually more costly, and most fans and analysts hardly take note of them. To put the 0.01 WP error in context, on SF's following possession that resulted in a 3-and-out, RB Frank Gore gained 2 yards on 1st and 10, costing 0.01 WPA. Had he gained 4 or 5 yds, he would have broken even in terms of WP. So the error is no worse than the difference of a couple yards on first down."


Noted: I wouldn't even call it an error when the percentages are that close. Harbaugh's feel for the situation relative to his team should count for something. If he felt as though the Cowboys' defensive scheme was giving Alex Smith some problems in the absence of Braylon Edwards and Michael Crabtree, for example, or if he felt as though Demarcus Ware was close to making a game-turning play based on a coach's feel for the game, then Harbaugh potentially made a decision with more information available to him. However, with a top-flight snapper and kicker, he could have attempted a field goal with some confidence later in the drive. Focusing on Harbaugh's decision in a game featuring such blatant breakdowns in pass coverage makes little sense. Burke's analysis confirms as much.


http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest

This does not include context. If Poker players and Black jack players strictly went by stats, they would be losers. You must go by context more than anything and their offense was starting to rev up and our primary goal should have been keeping that offense off the field for longer.
  • Blitz
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Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by Blitz:
As I suspected, the issue is ridunculous, now let it go people:


Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats says the 49ers' win probability was .90 after Akers' field goal, and it would have been .91 had Harbaugh accepted the penalty. Burke: "In the grand scheme, this is a very small error. The common punt or FG attempt on 4th and short in most game situations is usually more costly, and most fans and analysts hardly take note of them. To put the 0.01 WP error in context, on SF's following possession that resulted in a 3-and-out, RB Frank Gore gained 2 yards on 1st and 10, costing 0.01 WPA. Had he gained 4 or 5 yds, he would have broken even in terms of WP. So the error is no worse than the difference of a couple yards on first down."


Noted: I wouldn't even call it an error when the percentages are that close. Harbaugh's feel for the situation relative to his team should count for something. If he felt as though the Cowboys' defensive scheme was giving Alex Smith some problems in the absence of Braylon Edwards and Michael Crabtree, for example, or if he felt as though Demarcus Ware was close to making a game-turning play based on a coach's feel for the game, then Harbaugh potentially made a decision with more information available to him. However, with a top-flight snapper and kicker, he could have attempted a field goal with some confidence later in the drive. Focusing on Harbaugh's decision in a game featuring such blatant breakdowns in pass coverage makes little sense. Burke's analysis confirms as much.


http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest

This does not include context. If Poker players and Black jack players strictly went by stats, they would be losers. You must go by context more than anything and their offense was starting to rev up and our primary goal should have been keeping that offense off the field for longer.

Whatchu talkin' about Willis? The article mentions plenty of context.

I think you mean to say it doesn't include the context you mention above, because it mentions plenty of context. That whole clock burning context, IMO, is pretty damn weak information to base the decision off of anyways.I think it's mostly without merit, the zone "reaching" for a valid argument. You guys need to stop acting like the clock beat us (it didn't beat us, the Cowgilrs did) like two minutes more of the 49er offense having the ball would make a difference. You are talking about an offense ranked 31 out of 32 here, an offense that can't be relied upon to take a s**t by itself, by NFL standards.The article mentions much better/pertinent context (DWare/Edwards/Crabtree/Smith etc) than the weak clock burning argument.

The offense sucks dude. When you have a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter with a s**tbag offense behind you, YOU DON'T PUSH YOUR LUCK FOR A CHANCE AT MAYBE JUST MAYBE...BURNING A MINUTE OR TWO OFF THE CLOCK IN EXCHANGE FOR THREE OF THOSE POINTS. No use in trying to spin it any other way dude...the offense sucks royal ass.
Originally posted by Joecool:
This does not include context. If Poker players and Black jack players strictly went by stats, they would be losers. You must go by context more than anything and their offense was starting to rev up and our primary goal should have been keeping that offense off the field for longer.

I got your context right here . . .

Dallas' 2nd half drives . . .

Drive #1 - Kitna at QB / 7 Plays/48 yards / Ends with Whitner INT
Drive #2 - Kitna at QB / Short Field due to Smith INT / 5 Plays/18 Yards / TD to Austin
Drive #3 - Kitna at QB / 6 Plays/23 yards / Ends with Brock INT
Drive #4 - Romo at QB / 3 Plays/-2 yards / Punt (Romo looked like a whipped puppy)

Then the Akers FG to go up 10, which looked pretty damn good at the time . . .in context as you say.

Then the D fell a sleep and Romo went off.
I actually had to make an account so i can comment on here finally , The desicion to take the field was absolutely horrible akers just nailed a 55 yarder we were getting the ball at dallas 25 or 21 not sure how do you not take that 10 points isn't that big of a lead especially with tony romo quick strike ability like we seen with miles austin touchdown in the 1st half ... Enough with this 30% b******t and all these numbers about the chances of the 49ers scoring we could of wasted more clock and possibly scored a touchdown stop sticking up for jim harbaugh it was a surprise that akers even made the 55 harder that is deff no chip shot and to think if he had to re kick it from 35-44 and miss is just moranic why is everything oh we wouldn't have scored anyway or we would of missed the field goal why can't it be that would of been a huge letdown for dallas and the 49ers would of took full advantage and scored the touchdown ??? this was an embrassing and one of the worst 49ers losses in a long time I'm its not ok that where still in 1st place it wasn't a good move by harbaugh
Originally posted by johnny49ers:
I actually had to make an account so i can comment on here finally , The desicion to take the field was absolutely horrible akers just nailed a 55 yarder we were getting the ball at dallas 25 or 21 not sure how do you not take that 10 points isn't that big of a lead especially with tony romo quick strike ability like we seen with miles austin touchdown in the 1st half ... Enough with this 30% b******t and all these numbers about the chances of the 49ers scoring we could of wasted more clock and possibly scored a touchdown stop sticking up for jim harbaugh it was a surprise that akers even made the 55 harder that is deff no chip shot and to think if he had to re kick it from 35-44 and miss is just moranic why is everything oh we wouldn't have scored anyway or we would of missed the field goal why can't it be that would of been a huge letdown for dallas and the 49ers would of took full advantage and scored the touchdown ??? this was an embrassing and one of the worst 49ers losses in a long time I'm its not ok that where still in 1st place it wasn't a good move by harbaugh

Welcome to the Zone. Agreed.
Originally posted by SonocoNinerFan:
Originally posted by Joecool:
This does not include context. If Poker players and Black jack players strictly went by stats, they would be losers. You must go by context more than anything and their offense was starting to rev up and our primary goal should have been keeping that offense off the field for longer.

I got your context right here . . .

Dallas' 2nd half drives . . .

Drive #1 - Kitna at QB / 7 Plays/48 yards / Ends with Whitner INT
Drive #2 - Kitna at QB / Short Field due to Smith INT / 5 Plays/18 Yards / TD to Austin
Drive #3 - Kitna at QB / 6 Plays/23 yards / Ends with Brock INT
Drive #4 - Romo at QB / 3 Plays/-2 yards / Punt (Romo looked like a whipped puppy)

Then the Akers FG to go up 10, which looked pretty damn good at the time . . .in context as you say.

Then the D fell a sleep and Romo went off.

This. 49ers D completely melted down late in the game and couldn't get the stops. Harbaugh made the right call and put the game in the hands of the defense who had only allowed 14 points up to that point. Asking them to defend a 10 point lead with 10-11 minutes left wasn't a bad move.
Originally posted by SonocoNinerFan:
Originally posted by Joecool:
This does not include context. If Poker players and Black jack players strictly went by stats, they would be losers. You must go by context more than anything and their offense was starting to rev up and our primary goal should have been keeping that offense off the field for longer.

I got your context right here . . .

Dallas' 2nd half drives . . .

Drive #1 - Kitna at QB / 7 Plays/48 yards / Ends with Whitner INT
Drive #2 - Kitna at QB / Short Field due to Smith INT / 5 Plays/18 Yards / TD to Austin
Drive #3 - Kitna at QB / 6 Plays/23 yards / Ends with Brock INT
Drive #4 - Romo at QB / 3 Plays/-2 yards / Punt (Romo looked like a whipped puppy)

Then the Akers FG to go up 10, which looked pretty damn good at the time . . .in context as you say.

Then the D fell a sleep and Romo went off.

Context meaning getting the ball 15 yards closer to the End Zone. It wasn't a 5 yard penalty that would probably force us to kick a 50 yard FG. It was a 15 yard penalty.

Now let us throw in more context.
1. DAL will go into two-minute offense mode.
2. 11 minutes remaining to score 10 points.
3. DAL has a top 10 QB
4. We couldn't stop 82 all game
5. TOP.
*Not sure if this has been posted because I didn't read through 12 pages.
Why do you keep the points? Let's look at a similar situation:


http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/101221_tuesday_morning_quarterback&sportCat=nfl

Ho Ho Ho: In the process of getting pounded into fine dust by the San Diego Chargers, the San Francisco 49ers -- who did a lot of boasting in the preseason, then have backed it up by losing games 34-7, 21-0, 31-10 and 31-6 -- had a drive on which they scored three points, then scored six points, then ended up with no points.

With the Bolts leading 7-0, the Squared Sevens kicked a field goal. San Diego was called for "leveraging," the second time in three weeks this unusual call has been made. Accepting the penalty took points off the board but gave San Francisco first-and-goal at the 10. Three snaps later, Alex Smith ran for what officials signaled was a touchdown, but San Diego challenged and the six points came off the board, too. Mike Singletary went for it on fourth-and-goal from the 1. High first-round draft choice guard Mike Iupati air-blocked -- he made contact with no one -- as undrafted Bolts defensive tackle Ogemdi Nwagbuo shot into the backfield to drop the runner for a loss, San Diego ball and zero points for San Francisco.
[ Edited by Common on Sep 19, 2011 at 3:03 PM ]
  • Blitz
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Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by SonocoNinerFan:
Originally posted by Joecool:
This does not include context. If Poker players and Black jack players strictly went by stats, they would be losers. You must go by context more than anything and their offense was starting to rev up and our primary goal should have been keeping that offense off the field for longer.

I got your context right here . . .

Dallas' 2nd half drives . . .

Drive #1 - Kitna at QB / 7 Plays/48 yards / Ends with Whitner INT
Drive #2 - Kitna at QB / Short Field due to Smith INT / 5 Plays/18 Yards / TD to Austin
Drive #3 - Kitna at QB / 6 Plays/23 yards / Ends with Brock INT
Drive #4 - Romo at QB / 3 Plays/-2 yards / Punt (Romo looked like a whipped puppy)

Then the Akers FG to go up 10, which looked pretty damn good at the time . . .in context as you say.

Then the D fell a sleep and Romo went off.

Context meaning getting the ball 15 yards closer to the End Zone. It wasn't a 5 yard penalty that would probably force us to kick a 50 yard FG. It was a 15 yard penalty.

Now let us throw in more context.
1. DAL will go into two-minute offense mode.
2. 11 minutes remaining to score 10 points.
3. DAL has a top 10 QB
4. We couldn't stop 82 all game
5. TOP.


I repeat:

Focusing on Harbaugh's decision in a game featuring such blatant breakdowns in pass coverage makes little sense.

You can add the 31st ranked offense to the list of breakdowns too.
[ Edited by Blitz on Sep 19, 2011 at 3:05 PM ]
Harbaugh sent a bad msg to his team and clearly outthought himself. I think you are going to mess this up if I don't take the 3 points instead of see you guys run an offense with 1st and 10 nearly in the red zone.

I'm sick of hearing "don't take points off the board".
Originally posted by Blitz:
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by SonocoNinerFan:
Originally posted by Joecool:
This does not include context. If Poker players and Black jack players strictly went by stats, they would be losers. You must go by context more than anything and their offense was starting to rev up and our primary goal should have been keeping that offense off the field for longer.

I got your context right here . . .

Dallas' 2nd half drives . . .

Drive #1 - Kitna at QB / 7 Plays/48 yards / Ends with Whitner INT
Drive #2 - Kitna at QB / Short Field due to Smith INT / 5 Plays/18 Yards / TD to Austin
Drive #3 - Kitna at QB / 6 Plays/23 yards / Ends with Brock INT
Drive #4 - Romo at QB / 3 Plays/-2 yards / Punt (Romo looked like a whipped puppy)

Then the Akers FG to go up 10, which looked pretty damn good at the time . . .in context as you say.

Then the D fell a sleep and Romo went off.

Context meaning getting the ball 15 yards closer to the End Zone. It wasn't a 5 yard penalty that would probably force us to kick a 50 yard FG. It was a 15 yard penalty.

Now let us throw in more context.
1. DAL will go into two-minute offense mode.
2. 11 minutes remaining to score 10 points.
3. DAL has a top 10 QB
4. We couldn't stop 82 all game
5. TOP.


I repeat:

Focusing on Harbaugh's decision in a game featuring such blatant breakdowns in pass coverage makes little sense.

You can add the 31st ranked offense to the list of breakdowns too.
Do you know how much time was remaining when DAL kicked the FG or even got the ball on that last drive?

2.5 minutes less of a game and yes, Harbaugh's decision gave DAL more time and Harbaugh put our DB's in that position.
Originally posted by Blitz:
As I suspected, the issue is ridunculous, now let it go people:


Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats says the 49ers' win probability was .90 after Akers' field goal, and it would have been .91 had Harbaugh accepted the penalty. Burke: "In the grand scheme, this is a very small error. The common punt or FG attempt on 4th and short in most game situations is usually more costly, and most fans and analysts hardly take note of them. To put the 0.01 WP error in context, on SF's following possession that resulted in a 3-and-out, RB Frank Gore gained 2 yards on 1st and 10, costing 0.01 WPA. Had he gained 4 or 5 yds, he would have broken even in terms of WP. So the error is no worse than the difference of a couple yards on first down."


Noted: I wouldn't even call it an error when the percentages are that close. Harbaugh's feel for the situation relative to his team should count for something. If he felt as though the Cowboys' defensive scheme was giving Alex Smith some problems in the absence of Braylon Edwards and Michael Crabtree, for example, or if he felt as though Demarcus Ware was close to making a game-turning play based on a coach's feel for the game, then Harbaugh potentially made a decision with more information available to him. However, with a top-flight snapper and kicker, he could have attempted a field goal with some confidence later in the drive. Focusing on Harbaugh's decision in a game featuring such blatant breakdowns in pass coverage makes little sense. Burke's analysis confirms as much.


http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest

Yeah, you just confirmed that we would have had a better chance of winning if we had taken the penalty. That call was ridiculous in many ways, especially for team psyche.
  • Blitz
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Originally posted by MBniner:
Originally posted by Blitz:
As I suspected, the issue is ridunculous, now let it go people:


Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats says the 49ers' win probability was .90 after Akers' field goal, and it would have been .91 had Harbaugh accepted the penalty. Burke: "In the grand scheme, this is a very small error. The common punt or FG attempt on 4th and short in most game situations is usually more costly, and most fans and analysts hardly take note of them. To put the 0.01 WP error in context, on SF's following possession that resulted in a 3-and-out, RB Frank Gore gained 2 yards on 1st and 10, costing 0.01 WPA. Had he gained 4 or 5 yds, he would have broken even in terms of WP. So the error is no worse than the difference of a couple yards on first down."


Noted: I wouldn't even call it an error when the percentages are that close. Harbaugh's feel for the situation relative to his team should count for something. If he felt as though the Cowboys' defensive scheme was giving Alex Smith some problems in the absence of Braylon Edwards and Michael Crabtree, for example, or if he felt as though Demarcus Ware was close to making a game-turning play based on a coach's feel for the game, then Harbaugh potentially made a decision with more information available to him. However, with a top-flight snapper and kicker, he could have attempted a field goal with some confidence later in the drive. Focusing on Harbaugh's decision in a game featuring such blatant breakdowns in pass coverage makes little sense. Burke's analysis confirms as much.


http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest

Yeah, you just confirmed that we would have had a better chance of winning if we had taken the penalty. That call was ridiculous in many ways, especially for team psyche.

Why don't you just say "Didn't read."

You want ridiculous?

How about a f**ked up defense and a f**ked up offense? But naw...can't do that...it's like the world all of a sudden eats, sleeps and s**ts on this call that essentially amounts to a grain of a sand on beach of f**kedupness.

News flash: These players are grown men who know exactly where they f**ked up and where they didn't. I am pretty confident their psyche is a hell of a lot tougher than you are making it out to be. I am pretty sure this call is about the farthest thing from their minds right now...and they aren't near the fragile p***y's you are suggesting. They are more than likely not giving a f**k about this call in the least, and are focused on the bigger picture of wherehow they f**ked up at and fixing that.

And besides, If they are as big a mental p***y's as you suggest..then they ain't worth f**k anyways...IE......good luck in the NFL if you are that mentally fragile of player. lol
  • A-R-S
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How can people blame Harbs for this?

This game is 100% on our piece of s**t defense,

Have they ever NOT given up a game tying/winning drive?

If the game is on the line you can guarantee our D will give it up. 100% of the time.
Originally posted by Blitz:
Why don't you just say "Didn't read."

You want ridiculous?

How about a f**ked up defense and a f**ked up offense? But naw...can't do that...it's like the world all of a sudden eats, sleeps and s**ts on this call that essentially amounts to a grain of a sand on beach of f**kedupness.

News flash: These players are grown men who know exactly where they f**ked up and where they didn't. I am pretty confident their psyche is a hell of a lot tougher than you are making it out to be. I am pretty sure this call is about the farthest thing from their minds right now...and they aren't near the fragile p***y's you are suggesting. They are more than likely not giving a f**k about this call in the least, and are focused on the bigger picture of wherehow they f**ked up at and fixing that.

And besides, If they are as big a mental p***y's as you suggest..then they ain't worth f**k anyways...IE......good luck in the NFL if you are that mentally fragile of player. lol

It's an overall mentality we have been dealing with and are sick of. Most people probably thought/assumed that Harbaugh had a different coaching style and would be much more agressive that he has shown to date. People are tired of this; we lived through it with Nolan and Singletary. Most fans, at this point, would rather go down swinging at least. The "play not to lose" attitude has worn out its welcome.