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why is everyone expecting us to finish 3rd or 4th in our division?

Originally posted by freetworhyme:
Originally posted by Daniel2778:
I have been reading predictions from all over the past week, and it looks like 90% of the predictions have us finishing 3rd or 4rd in our division. Am i missing something? i just dont understand, we have by far the most talent in our division. if anything, our defense is better, we have a better secondary, better pass rushers, better coaches, better recievers. we have improved both on defense and offense. STL, SEA and CARDS have not improved dramatically. everyone had us winning the division last year, and now that we got better, they are all picking us to finish 3rd or 4th? what am i missing?

Our quarterback situation, our defense has 6 new starters, and we have a rookie head coach that had very little offseason preparation. The seasons will determine if we turn that around or not.

How'd the team with the new HC do last year in our division?
Our division is crap! Well win a divisional title at 8-8, give or take a game! Mark it down!
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Probably because after sucking for about a decade, we've lost the benefit of the doubt.

You...are correct, sir...
Just like with Wall Street, actions speak louder than words. Performance builds confidence / expectations. Confidence determines value

Until the Niners meet & exceed expectations, their relative "value" will continue to be low.
This is why.

By most any measure, the Niners were better than a 6-10 team last year. Not vastly better, but better. And it's not fluky. For instance, the Niners had the 13th-best total defense last season. But that also lines up with more advanced stats, such as Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, which had the Niners again ranked 13th. Eliminate luck factors and the team was over a full win better than that 6-10 mark. Both the computers and the sharps consider San Francisco the best team in the NFC West to start the season, believing that if Jim Harbaugh can coax anything out of Alex Smith -- and give Harbaugh credit, he's been steadfast that he can -- this could be a surprise team. San Francisco's offensive line should be improved as well. The committee is far too bearish on the Niners.

Sprow's reference to 2010 defensive stats isn't as helpful from my standpoint. The 49ers have new defensive coaches, a new defensive scheme and as many as six new starters on that side of the ball. Whether Harbaugh's attention to detail helps the 49ers win close games stands out as more important in my view.

I projected only six to seven wins for the 49ers this season largely because I don't trust Smith to stay healthy. But if he makes it through 16 games for the second time in his career, the 49ers should improve upon their 6-10 record from last season.
Originally posted by 9erred:
'Coaches emphasis on ST is a smoke signal that they are not confident in the offense.
Or they are less confident in ST than in the offense.
Originally posted by communist:
Originally posted by 9erred:
'Coaches emphasis on ST is a smoke signal that they are not confident in the offense.
Or they are less confident in ST than in the offense.

Here's another POV...

They wanted to upgrade the ST, that simple. The underlying current of your assumptions denotes a lack of confidence from our coaches about portions of our team like the offense and ST. Harbaugh would not allow that kind of practice to occur.

It was always about getting the best team on the field on all three phase which includes, hey, ST. Wow, what a concept. So now that Harbaugh and Seely agreed to focus some of the players on ST, it denotes a lack of confidence on the offense? Communist is right in that the coaches wanted more resources for ST to feel more confident on their success. They did that!

Finally, we have coaches who know what they are doing. Seely's experience molded his squad this year and Harbaugh and Baalke made sure he had the right tools for his squad to be successful.

Why they made it...
LB Blake Costanzo, DBs Colin Jones and C.J. Spillman: These players might not ever get on the field to play defense, but each is being counted upon by special-teams coordinator Brad Seely to form the nucleus of the 49ers' special teams. So Costanzo, Jones and Spillman not only made the team, Harbaugh said these three players will be among the 46 active players on game days.--Matt Maiocco

Now add Gooden to those three and we have four specialists on ST and both Jones and Spillman have a knack of getting down field to disrupt the returner while Gooden's specialty is blocking on returns which we need.

I believe our speed and tackling will improve greatly. It's the blocking for our returners that I hope improves more.

I believe Seely now has the right tools to be successful here. Again, we shall see on Sunday. New team. New coaches. New culture. New approach.

Deal with it, let it go and enjoy!
[ Edited by ninertico on Sep 8, 2011 at 8:56 AM ]
Originally posted by nw9erfan:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Probably because after sucking for about a decade, we've lost the benefit of the doubt.

You...are correct, sir...

I'm not sure why they are expecting us to, other than the fact taht we underachieve every year.
2/3s of our D line are new or in a new position, our O line is a mystery as to how they will play on any given day. It all starts with the lines

Everyone keeps pointing out these holes in our team but no one is looking at the whole picture as far as the scheduling of our opponents goes. Rams and Cards don't have that great of a chance of taking our division considering their first half of their schedules.
Originally posted by Lifer:
Several reasons I can think of:

1.) First year rookie Head Coaches generally don't do well. History says that it takes a new coach a year or two to figure it out.
2.) The lockout is seen as a major handicap to the team's development in their first year under the new system.
3.) Huge question mark at QB. Alex Smith might blossom in his sixth season, but the odds are against it.
4.) People have been picking the 49ers to break out and win their division for three years now. They've gotten burned every time. So now the prognosticators are giving the team a wide berth.

So, it's all about the tendencies and the odds. Strangely, this gives me hope. I think this team is going to defy the odds and do well this year. We really do have some serious talent and we're way under the radar. There are few things in life as sweet as proving the doubters wrong.

I believe your number 4 is the greatest reason for the lack of respect. Experts do not like to be burned and on top of that, an untested coach who received way too much press for the experts liking, is the savior. Could also be that Harbaugh is difficult to like, as Cohn, Barbieri and others have pointed out.

But that's fine! The media are usually behind the curve when it comes to predicting outcomes.
Originally posted by Bejaard49er:
New OC
New DC, Fangio commented earlier entire defensive playbook will not be installed this year
Only 5 weeks of practice
6 new players on defense
Alex Smith??????????????????
WR with zero pre season work
OL that one moment looks great and the next moment my daughter high school DL could beat
Zero depth at key positions like QB, CB, IL

I agree with everything right here. And for those of you that just think the QB is the reason, you're just plain stupid.
Originally posted by maximill15:
What have we down to prove we won't finish 3-4th?

Is that you BuzzB?
Are these the same clones who predicted we would win the division last year?
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