Football Outsiders? NFC West predictions..

football outsiders

Yeah, there is no doubt in this division we are a 8-9 win team right now. We're probably one good offseason of coaching away from being able to win playoff games.

Originally posted by MiamiNiner:

How do the Rams end up 6-10 when they have Bradford and an improved defense?

The rams could lose their first 7 games. Tough schedule

I am a big fan of Footballoutsiders. They base their predictions on advanced statistics, which don't work spectacularly well in football because of the small sample size (16 games). Their yearly almanac can be downloaded for $12, and provides a summary of every team and every QB, RB, TE and WR.

It is interesting this year because they don't actually say that the Niners will win the division, they just give us a better record than everyone else. They also predict that the Raiders will regress and that Denver will improve (only one way to go). I thought that their best prediction last year was that KC would make the playoffs; this year they predict that they will be worse.

Without starting an Alex controversy, they make the point that he is now bland, gray, and a very average NFL QB, neither bad nor good. At least statistically.

Originally posted by ninertico:
Here's there first seven games...
Phi
@NYG
Balt
Wash
@GB
@Dal
NO

Yea...good luck with that!!!!

Wow..that's brutal.


I think we're a bit underrated this year. Honestly, if you look at the losses last year...they weren't due to a lack of talent, player ability, etc. Out of the 10 losses...I'd say AT LEAST 4 were a result of piss poor coaching, coaching decisions, game plan (or lack thereof), and the inability to cater the offense to our players strengths, AND lastly...NO real identity. One week we were trying to "impose our will" and the next we're the Florida Gators. One week it's the Alex Smith show..the next it's Troy the Savior Smith, etc. It was just a bad year with extremely poor leadership. People under estimate the importance of that.

I have to believe that we won't have those systemic problems this year AND we're coming back with a squad that's more committed, better coached, motivated, and frankly...some are on their last years (of contracts), last chances, etc etc. We could surprise people.

Originally posted by LambdaChi49:

Originally posted by ninertico:
Here's there first seven games...
Phi
@NYG
Balt
Wash
@GB
@Dal
NO

Yea...good luck with that!!!!

Wow..that's brutal.


I think we're a bit underrated this year. Honestly, if you look at the losses last year...they weren't due to a lack of talent, player ability, etc. Out of the 10 losses...I'd say AT LEAST 4 were a result of piss poor coaching, coaching decisions, game plan (or lack thereof), and the inability to cater the offense to our players strengths, AND lastly...NO real identity. One week we were trying to "impose our will" and the next we're the Florida Gators. One week it's the Alex Smith show..the next it's Troy the Savior Smith, etc. It was just a bad year with extremely poor leadership. People under estimate the importance of that.

I have to believe that we won't have those systemic problems this year AND we're coming back with a squad that's more committed, better coached, motivated, and frankly...some are on their last years (of contracts), last chances, etc etc. We could surprise people.

I'm suprised I'm saying this, but I think our roster is stronger this year, than last. Center is the only area that may have suffered a possible downgrade, but saftey and corner, plus passrush all look to be stronger. Not to mention our RB and WR situation.

f**k it. They were right last time, so I'll believe it. Playoffs, baby!

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

Originally posted by LambdaChi49:

Originally posted by ninertico:
Here's there first seven games...
Phi
@NYG
Balt
Wash
@GB
@Dal
NO

Yea...good luck with that!!!!

Wow..that's brutal.


I think we're a bit underrated this year. Honestly, if you look at the losses last year...they weren't due to a lack of talent, player ability, etc. Out of the 10 losses...I'd say AT LEAST 4 were a result of piss poor coaching, coaching decisions, game plan (or lack thereof), and the inability to cater the offense to our players strengths, AND lastly...NO real identity. One week we were trying to "impose our will" and the next we're the Florida Gators. One week it's the Alex Smith show..the next it's Troy the Savior Smith, etc. It was just a bad year with extremely poor leadership. People under estimate the importance of that.

I have to believe that we won't have those systemic problems this year AND we're coming back with a squad that's more committed, better coached, motivated, and frankly...some are on their last years (of contracts), last chances, etc etc. We could surprise people.

I'm suprised I'm saying this, but I think our roster is stronger this year, than last. Center is the only area that may have suffered a possible downgrade, but saftey and corner, plus passrush all look to be stronger. Not to mention our RB and WR situation.

1. The talent on this team last year was playoff level talent.
2. Last year, we made zero halftime adjustments from the players' mouth
3. The talent on this team is better than last years
4. The coach appears to be 150% better than last year
5. We looked to have hit on a lot of draft picks this year
6. The other teams in the division have just as much of a learning curve from new coaches or worse QB's than last year

I will be very disappointed if we don't win the division.

Originally posted by Joecool:
1. The talent on this team last year was playoff level talent.
2. Last year, we made zero halftime adjustments from the players' mouth
3. The talent on this team is better than last years
4. The coach appears to be 150% better than last year
5. We looked to have hit on a lot of draft picks this year
6. The other teams in the division have just as much of a learning curve from new coaches or worse QB's than last year

I will be very disappointed if we don't win the division.

Those are some very high expectations for new system, new offense, new defense, new ST, and the same old QB. I would like to win the division and finally attend a playoff game, but I won't be holding my breathe.

Originally posted by SJniner7:

Originally posted by Joecool:
1. The talent on this team last year was playoff level talent.
2. Last year, we made zero halftime adjustments from the players' mouth
3. The talent on this team is better than last years
4. The coach appears to be 150% better than last year
5. We looked to have hit on a lot of draft picks this year
6. The other teams in the division have just as much of a learning curve from new coaches or worse QB's than last year

I will be very disappointed if we don't win the division.

Those are some very high expectations for new system, new offense, new defense, new ST, and the same old QB. I would like to win the division and finally attend a playoff game, but I won't be holding my breathe.

Yes but this includes the Rams who have a new offense with a 2nd year QB who wasn't all that great. The Seahawks who have a worse QB than last year and last year's QB was their main reason they made it and won a playoff game. Arizona has a new unproven QB in a totally different system.

I like our chances.

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by SJniner7:

Originally posted by Joecool:
1. The talent on this team last year was playoff level talent.
2. Last year, we made zero halftime adjustments from the players' mouth
3. The talent on this team is better than last years
4. The coach appears to be 150% better than last year
5. We looked to have hit on a lot of draft picks this year
6. The other teams in the division have just as much of a learning curve from new coaches or worse QB's than last year

I will be very disappointed if we don't win the division.

Those are some very high expectations for new system, new offense, new defense, new ST, and the same old QB. I would like to win the division and finally attend a playoff game, but I won't be holding my breathe.

Yes but this includes the Rams who have a new offense with a 2nd year QB who wasn't all that great. The Seahawks who have a worse QB than last year and last year's QB was their main reason they made it and won a playoff game. Arizona has a new unproven QB in a totally different system.

I like our chances.

Agreed...I feel the division is ours for the taking. How many games did we lose by a touchdown or less last year? And that was with the worst coaching in the league.

Originally posted by WWFGD:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by SJniner7:

Originally posted by Joecool:
1. The talent on this team last year was playoff level talent.
2. Last year, we made zero halftime adjustments from the players' mouth
3. The talent on this team is better than last years
4. The coach appears to be 150% better than last year
5. We looked to have hit on a lot of draft picks this year
6. The other teams in the division have just as much of a learning curve from new coaches or worse QB's than last year

I will be very disappointed if we don't win the division.

Those are some very high expectations for new system, new offense, new defense, new ST, and the same old QB. I would like to win the division and finally attend a playoff game, but I won't be holding my breathe.

Yes but this includes the Rams who have a new offense with a 2nd year QB who wasn't all that great. The Seahawks who have a worse QB than last year and last year's QB was their main reason they made it and won a playoff game. Arizona has a new unproven QB in a totally different system.

I like our chances.

Agreed...I feel the division is ours for the taking. How many games did we lose by a touchdown or less last year? And that was with the worst coaching in the league.

To be true, the other teams in our division appear to be in worse condition than last year. Steven Jackson is still the Rams key cog and played in all 16 games producing his worst year with 3.8 per carry. I also don't see that new OC using him to his full ability in terms of the running game as Denver was near the bottom of the league in rushing attempts and at 3.9 per carry. He's a heavy passing coach and Bradford is going to have a lot on his plate.

I am not expecting playoffs this year. The only reason we can even think that is possible is because we are in the NFC West.

All I want to see this season is competence on offense, good play calling, and competetive game plans. If we can do that consistently then I don't care if we make the playoffs or not, because it would prove that we have quality coaching and the core players needed to execute their system. That is the fundamental element of any successful franchise. A few roster upgrades here and there will be all it takes to put us over the top.

Anything can happen in the NFL. The victor isn't always the best team, it is about luck, timing and matchups. Injuries can affect a team you play, so when you play them is important to. Normally the Colts would be a team that would be difficult to play and win against-but if you got them in the first four games of the regular season you stand a better chance than in the second half when PM should be back and in rhytmn.

Seattle-Tavaris Jackson-who? Hope JH keeps the tradition alive of besting Carrol
Rams- Brutal schedule and we will see what there offense is truly like with a new coach on offense
Arizona- Kolb, I don't think he is all that good and the D -is well...seems like a question mark although they got PP. Answer to that just run at him with Iupati and VD leading the way.

So if we can win 4 of the 6 division games and half of the outside games (5 of 10) we will be 9-7. Anything more will be truly icing.

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by SJniner7:

Originally posted by Amir:

Originally posted by ninertico:

Here's there first seven games...
Phi
@NYG
Balt
Wash
@GB
@Dal
NO

Yea...good luck with that!!!!

YIKES!!!! They're looking at a 1-6 start.

Those first 7 games are brutal! We hit the hard stretch of our schedule in the middle, which may be a blessing. If the Rams make it through those games over .500, I imagine they will easily claim the division.

I would not be surprised if we beat WAS and DAL. Also, BAL is a team we play well against but who knows with the Harbaugh connection.

I also wouldn't be surprised if we beat the Saints. They aren't as strong as they used to be.

Whaddya mean "we?" Is you a rams fan?