Has Alex Smith proved to be the 49er's QB of the future?

Originally posted by Lifer:
Alex Smith is the 49ers quarterback of the interim. With the same system in place two years in a row, time to develop chemistry with his receivers, and improved O-line play, he should be a decent, middle of the pack QB in 2010.

However, if you look around the league at every team that has a legitimate shot of making it to the Super Bowl this year, every one of them has a QB who is considerably better than "middle of the pack."

Alex is decent. But the league has written the rules to favor the passing game and feature the QB. In the modern league, a decent QB is not enough. You need exceptional play at the position.

To my mind, the term "quarterback of the future" means greatness, or at least the potential for greatness. Alex is not that guy. However, the best way to find that guy is to draft him and bring him along slowly in your system. Ironically, Alex Smith gives you the luxury of doing that. Nate Davis doesn't need to be rushed into action. He can develop slowly, playing in the same system year after year. If, after a couple years, he looks like he doesn't have what it takes, you can draft another guy and bring him along slowly. Alex Smith is good enough to keep the seat warm until a real quarterback of the future arrives.

Good Point...

Out of the 12 playoff teams 11 of the 12 QB's are rated in the top half of the league in QB rate. Hell, 8 of the teams with a top 10 QB rate are in the playoffs. Only 1 team with a bottom 10 QB rate made the playoffs (and that's the Jets with a rookie QB).

QB rating is a comprehensive statistic and a pretty fair appraisal of performance. The following is Smith's QB rating over three seasons played (injury years tossed):

2005: 40.8
2006: 74.8
2009: 81.5

I think we can project that, with continuity and improvement on the offensive line, Smith will ultimately plateau in the 90s, which would not make him elite, but put him in the top 10-12 QBs in the league.

Having a 26 years old QB in the top 1/3 of the league would be good enough, IMO. This assumes, of course, that he continues to improve, which is a prerequisite to keeping him as the starter. I think we need to quit obsessing about the next coming of Montana and Young. A good QB running a balanced attack with a smothering defense can win a Super Bowl.

Crabtree looked tired of having to extend high to try to catch an alexhighthrow and getting hammered by the secondary for his efforts the last couple of weeks.

To be fair, the pass to Vernon was the best pass I have seen Alex make. He actually hit Vernon in stride.

Originally posted by fister30:
Crabtree looked tired of having to extend high to try to catch an alexhighthrow and getting hammered by the secondary for his efforts the last couple of weeks.

ive been real hard on alex and i noticed this too in the game, but then when i see the replays many of those high throws werent so high and crabtree dropped a couple. actually the highest and most difficult one to catch was the one he made on the sideline that sparked our 1st TD drive. if u put 2 hands on the ball u should make the catch. i do notice that alex seems to throw all of his passes with lots of velocity. not lots of touch involved.

Originally posted by fister30:
Crabtree looked tired of having to extend high to try to catch an alexhighthrow and getting hammered by the secondary for his efforts the last couple of weeks.

Could it be the product of what the defense presents? There was a topic of batted balls, if an opposing player is in your face, do you throw it above or in his hands?

Put me down in the "not sure" camp -- but I'm not ready to waste a high draft pick on another QB. You should have put in the option:

"Not sure -- but don't waste a high pick on another QB."

Cause -- that's just how Bill Bird rolls -- or feels -- about this matter.

I'll tell you Smith fans this much. Barring injury or outright disaster -- Smith gets next year to get this team into the playoffs. If it doesn't happen -- then look for the team to probably turn to Nate Davis. Or, who knows? Maybe we use a third round pick on a QB?

I see reports of Bradford going to the Deadskins in the first round? A Top 5 pick? An injured QB? Really?

I don't care how much upside he has -- he's still damaged goods.

Originally posted by BSofSF:
QB rating is a comprehensive statistic and a pretty fair appraisal of performance. The following is Smith's QB rating over three seasons played (injury years tossed):

2005: 40.8
2006: 74.8
2009: 81.5

I think we can project that, with continuity and improvement on the offensive line, Smith will ultimately plateau in the 90s, which would not make him elite, but put him in the top 10-12 QBs in the league.

Having a 26 years old QB in the top 1/3 of the league would be good enough, IMO. This assumes, of course, that he continues to improve, which is a prerequisite to keeping him as the starter. I think we need to quit obsessing about the next coming of Montana and Young. A good QB running a balanced attack with a smothering defense can win a Super Bowl.

He also had a QB rate of 57.2 in 2007. (His pre injure 2007 rate was 67.39 and post injury was 49.98.). Either way, he was regressing (sophomore slump?).

It took him 3 years to go from 74.8 to 81.5 (a 6.7 point improvement). I think projecting a 8.5+ point improvement in one off-season is a bit unrealistic. I'm not saying it's not possible; however, it's very unlikely.

Originally posted by BSofSF:
QB rating is a comprehensive statistic and a pretty fair appraisal of performance. The following is Smith's QB rating over three seasons played (injury years tossed):

2005: 40.8
2006: 74.8
2009: 81.5

I think we can project that, with continuity and improvement on the offensive line, Smith will ultimately plateau in the 90s, which would not make him elite, but put him in the top 10-12 QBs in the league.

Having a 26 years old QB in the top 1/3 of the league would be good enough, IMO. This assumes, of course, that he continues to improve, which is a prerequisite to keeping him as the starter. I think we need to quit obsessing about the next coming of Montana and Young. A good QB running a balanced attack with a smothering defense can win a Super Bowl.

No one knows where Smith will plateau at. You can say the 90s or whatever but what I like is that he continues to improve DESPITE the crap the 9ers have put him through. I swear this is a Keystone Cop organization ran by idiots.

No.

He doesn't totally suck, but whoever is going to be the starter has to move the sticks a lot more than what we have seen. I dont at all buy into the thoughts that all the problems are everyone else's fault like the OC O-line, & WRs, but not the QB. Hogwash.

Originally posted by taney71:

Originally posted by BSofSF:
QB rating is a comprehensive statistic and a pretty fair appraisal of performance. The following is Smith's QB rating over three seasons played (injury years tossed):

2005: 40.8
2006: 74.8
2009: 81.5

I think we can project that, with continuity and improvement on the offensive line, Smith will ultimately plateau in the 90s, which would not make him elite, but put him in the top 10-12 QBs in the league.

Having a 26 years old QB in the top 1/3 of the league would be good enough, IMO. This assumes, of course, that he continues to improve, which is a prerequisite to keeping him as the starter. I think we need to quit obsessing about the next coming of Montana and Young. A good QB running a balanced attack with a smothering defense can win a Super Bowl.

No one knows where Smith will plateau at. You can say the 90s or whatever but what I like is that he continues to improve DESPITE the crap the 9ers have put him through. I swear this is a Keystone Cop organization ran by idiots.

That's part of the problem. People continue to make excuses for what Alex has been "put through"...

All jobs have adversity. What you make of that adversity is what makes you great or causes your downfall.

Folks complain about 5 O-cords in 5 years; I see it as 5 different teachers to learn from which should help make one more well rounded in position knowledge.

He was given the opportunity to learn while doing by playing in his rookie year.

He was given the opportunity to learn behind a SB winning QB.

Hell, even the injury gave him time to sit back, study, and watch NFL caliber QB's perform out on the field...

Originally posted by djfullshred:
No.

He doesn't totally suck, but whoever is going to be the starter has to move the sticks a lot more than what we have seen. I dont at all buy into the thoughts that all the problems are everyone else's fault like the OC O-line, & WRs, but not the QB. Hogwash.

But then again -- did you see the Philly-Dallas game yesterday? Romo had forever and a day to scan the field and check down to the open receiver -- look off safeties -- linebackers, etc.

Rarely -- I mean -- rarely -- does Alex get that kind of time. You wonder how much better he would be if the line could give him 4-5 seconds on a consistent basis.

As much as I hate making excuses -- the lack of protection back there does play a role. He should be getting more time to throw the ball. He did in some cases against the Lambs -- but that Long fellow was just eating Snyder for breakfast on some plays.

Unacceptable.

Originally posted by djfullshred:
No.

He doesn't totally suck, but whoever is going to be the starter has to move the sticks a lot more than what we have seen. I dont at all buy into the thoughts that all the problems are everyone else's fault like the OC O-line, & WRs, but not the QB. Hogwash.

Not all the problems, but the play, any play, starts with blocking. Bad blocking and things come more difficult.

As for him "moving the sticks", have you seen a lot of the play-calling on 3rd and longs? Screens, draws, etc. Sure, maybe if Alex did more on 1st and 2nd down, we wouldn't be in the 3rd and 8-9yd plus range, but it's not always on him.

no Alex has not proved to be the 49ers' QB of the future and I'm sure even most Alex supporters would agree with that....

I think most of us are just more debating about whether Alex has proved enough to be named starter for next year....

there is no excuse as to why we did not play well in the first half of both the Lions game (which was at Home) and against the 1-14 Rams.

These are the times where Alex should have put this team on his back and just played like a normal QB with some nice weapons on offense...

There was a nice pass to Vernon for the TD, Davis burnt his man and Alex threw a accurate pass....but that is the thing with Alex, same problem for most of his career, extremely inconsistent.

so no Alex should not be named the Starter for next year.....hell, he has not earned it....he should have to compete and prove it......but anyway he has been named the starter, Singletary is going down the same road as Nolan, putting all his chips on Alex....we'll see what happens next year.

Does a suck @$$ OL make a suck @$$ QB..............or does a suck @$$ QB make a suck @$$ OL?

I also keep hearing about how Alex came in half way through the season and shouldn't really be judged....and that next year is the year he should be judged

this is what I heard before this season and into training camp....

it's not our fault that Alex got beat out by Shaun Hill.....and we had to wait alittle longer before we got to see Alex again.

after watching Alex these past 4 games, can any of you really see Alex improving drastically next year....because that is what he is going to need to do, if we want to make the playoffs and win games as well....

he looked HORRIBLE against the Eagles to keep our playoff hopes alive......and has not looked good against the 2 worse teams in the League in back to back weeks......and one of those games was at Home.

I mean really, step back for a second and look at the big picture......I know it is the best case scenario for our team if Alex becomes a great QB, but wishing can only take you so far....imo, it is not right to bash posters who refuse to wish along, not that I care