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The Atlanta Defense Vs. Tight Ends

Originally posted by PopeyeJonesing:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
I've noticed a lot of people saying that VD is the key to victory against Atlanta this week because they "don't have anybody that can cover him".

Well, I looked at the stats at Football Outsiders and Atlanta does quite well against Tight Ends -- 10th overall in adjusted performance:
9.2 adjusted passes attempted at the tight end, 52.7 yards per game, 5.7 yards per attempt.

However, Atlanta has done very poorly against #1 WRs (24th) and average against #2s:
Against #1 WRs, 112 YPG allowed, 9.9 passes attempted, 11.3 YPA.

Atlanta is 25th against the rush -- adjusted performance.

We are 8th against the TE pass, 18th Against #1 WRs, 4th against #2 WRs, and 27th vs. RBs. We're getting gouged for 6.8 yards per attempt on short passes to RBs.

Based on that weakness we have, I think they're going to try and run a lot of screen plays to Jerious Norwood -- he's deadly in the open field and that would slow down our pass rush. Not really sure how to neutralize that threat.

When we're on offense, our best bet is to (1) pound the ball up the middle and (2) take play-action shots downfield -- that's what Football Outsiders stats dictates (weak v. RBs and WRs). They are 29th vs/ runs up the middle and off of Left Tackle, but are 4th in the NFL against runs off right tackle. So, don't run at Jamaal Anderson.



http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl

It's too early in the season for these stats to mean too much. For example, our D against RB receptions is totally skewed by Tim Hightower and that one game. We'll have a clearer picture around week 10-12.

No. Football outsiders weighs opponent strength at only 40% at this point in the season
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Based on that weakness we have, I think they're going to try and run a lot of screen plays to Jerious Norwood -- he's deadly in the open field and that would slow down our pass rush. Not really sure how to neutralize that threat.

I'll bet Willis has a couple ideas, and if they test the flats on the wrong side of the field I'm sure Clements will come up with something, too.
I have Shaun and VD starting in fantasy dis week, so I'm gonna be rootin' extra hard for some Niner TDs, haha.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by PopeyeJonesing:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
I've noticed a lot of people saying that VD is the key to victory against Atlanta this week because they "don't have anybody that can cover him".

Well, I looked at the stats at Football Outsiders and Atlanta does quite well against Tight Ends -- 10th overall in adjusted performance:
9.2 adjusted passes attempted at the tight end, 52.7 yards per game, 5.7 yards per attempt.

However, Atlanta has done very poorly against #1 WRs (24th) and average against #2s:
Against #1 WRs, 112 YPG allowed, 9.9 passes attempted, 11.3 YPA.

Atlanta is 25th against the rush -- adjusted performance.

We are 8th against the TE pass, 18th Against #1 WRs, 4th against #2 WRs, and 27th vs. RBs. We're getting gouged for 6.8 yards per attempt on short passes to RBs.

Based on that weakness we have, I think they're going to try and run a lot of screen plays to Jerious Norwood -- he's deadly in the open field and that would slow down our pass rush. Not really sure how to neutralize that threat.

When we're on offense, our best bet is to (1) pound the ball up the middle and (2) take play-action shots downfield -- that's what Football Outsiders stats dictates (weak v. RBs and WRs). They are 29th vs/ runs up the middle and off of Left Tackle, but are 4th in the NFL against runs off right tackle. So, don't run at Jamaal Anderson.



http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl

It's too early in the season for these stats to mean too much. For example, our D against RB receptions is totally skewed by Tim Hightower and that one game. We'll have a clearer picture around week 10-12.

No. Football outsiders weighs opponent strength at only 40% at this point in the season

Nice analysis! We need more of this!