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Our Offense is About as Good as the Jets (Wk 4 FootballOutsider Advanced Stats)

I always like looking at Football Outsiders' Advacned Stats, because they paint a much more accurate picture of performance than any other outfit -- they adjust for opponents, league averages, etc.

Although there are a ton of different statistical categories available, the one I think is most telling is "Drive Stats" (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats).

In the offensive section, we're 29th in yards per drive, 21st in points per drive, 3rd in turnovers per drive, and 24th in field position. In the title, I said that our offense is "about as good as the Jets" because if you adjust yards per drive for turnovers (they have 2x as many offensive turnovers as we do) -- we're about the same; basically, I converted turnovers into average net punt for that team (since if you didn't turn the ball over, at a minimum you would have punted the ball away).

The Jets are a stout defensive team with a so-so offense -- we're the same build... and I'm happy with that.

Looking at Defensive Drive stats, we're 6th in yards allowed per drive, 4th in points per drive, 3rd in TDs per drive, 22nd in turnovers per drive, and 10th in opponents starting field position. The Jets are 4th, 2nd, 12th, and 10th (respectively). In Net Drive Stats, we're 19th, 12th, 9th, and 17th -- the Jets are 14th, 6th, 11th, and 5th.

Pretty similar stats -- although the Jets are forcing 43% more turnovers per drive; more veteran (and confident) defenses force more turnovers, so I expect us to improve in that category as the season goes on.

The one stat that concerns me for this week is average starting field position. The Falcons are literally crushing the rest of the league in field position #1 in field position, #1 in field position allowed, and #1 in net field position: they're averaging 13.6 yards of field position BETTER than their opponent on every change of possession. We, on the other hand, average 2/5ths of a yard better than our opponent per possession change. With a league-wide average of about 15 possession changes per game, that's 105 yards of net field position for the falcons (assuming our net and their net are averaged out equally).

-- The last time I saw such a lopsided field position game like that was out battle down in Miami last year -- where we got smoked for -126 net yards of field position. The rest of the game was completely even. We stalled midfield twice and were forced to go for the TD at the end of the game. If we had better field position, we would have gotten a FG on one of those drives and could have kicked a FG to win the game. (http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2008121408/2008/REG15/49ers@dolphins#tab:analyze/analyze-channels:cat-post-playbyplay).

I think we're matched up pretty evenly against Atlanta -- but the field position game worries me a little bit.
Great post & nice stats! I can't wait for this game!
  • Oscar
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Great stuff. I like the Football Outsiders stuff as well. Very good info.
  • DJD
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Also worth mentioning that both teams just picked up a new receiver today. Oh the 'irony' crabtree signs on the same exact day the jets make a big trade for edwards.
Very good post, thanks!
Our offense is as good as an offense with a rookie QB.

I do think it's a good comparision, but I don't think it's something to brag about it.
Thanks for the analysis! I like FO writeups a lot, but I have to admit that the numbers go over my head most of the time. I hope you post more often, because you made it make some sense to me.
Originally posted by tjd808185:
Our offense is as good as an offense with a rookie QB.

I do think it's a good comparision, but I don't think it's something to brag about it.

I do think its something worth bragging about, because the Jets are generalyl recognized a a quality team -- a team that will make the playoffs.

The comparisons go even deeper than what I've already posted. The 49ers and Jets also both love to run the ball in between the tackles -- both teams run between the tackles 2 out of every 3 plays. DEN, NE, CLE, TB, and JAC also run the ball in between the tackles 2/3rds of the time.

There are three differences between the Jets O and the 49ers O:

1. Shaun Hill is a far more efficient than Sanchez: a 93 QB rating vs. a 71 QB rating. FO rates Hill as the 22nd best QB and Sanchez at #35 -- Hill averages 7 yards a game passing better than what the average defense-adjusted replacement would get...Sanchez gets 40 yards less.

2. While we both run the ball up the middle a lot, The Jets get 21% more adjusted line yards per carry than we do when running up the middle. Also, Jets Running Backs and linemen are about equally responsible for yards, while our rushing yards are heavily dependant on the running back.

3. Although FO doesn't track QB hurries (only sacks), the Jets are 10th in the leage in sacks allowed % at 6.1% -- right at the NFL average. Our sack rate is 12.6% -- more than double the league average (20th in NFL).

Bottom Line: Hill is a mcuh better QB than Sanchez and the Jets O-line is much better than ours -- especially in short-yardage situations (we are the worst team in the NFL in short-yardage rushing).
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by tjd808185:
Our offense is as good as an offense with a rookie QB.

I do think it's a good comparision, but I don't think it's something to brag about it.

I do think its something worth bragging about, because the Jets are generalyl recognized a a quality team -- a team that will make the playoffs.

The comparisons go even deeper than what I've already posted. The 49ers and Jets also both love to run the ball in between the tackles -- both teams run between the tackles 2 out of every 3 plays. DEN, NE, CLE, TB, and JAC also run the ball in between the tackles 2/3rds of the time.

There are three differences between the Jets O and the 49ers O:

1. Shaun Hill is a far more efficient than Sanchez: a 93 QB rating vs. a 71 QB rating. FO rates Hill as the 22nd best QB and Sanchez at #35 -- Hill averages 7 yards a game passing better than what the average defense-adjusted replacement would get...Sanchez gets 40 yards less.

2. While we both run the ball up the middle a lot, The Jets get 21% more adjusted line yards per carry than we do when running up the middle. Also, Jets Running Backs and linemen are about equally responsible for yards, while our rushing yards are heavily dependant on the running back.

3. Although FO doesn't track QB hurries (only sacks), the Jets are 10th in the leage in sacks allowed % at 6.1% -- right at the NFL average. Our sack rate is 12.6% -- more than double the league average (20th in NFL).

Bottom Line: Hill is a mcuh better QB than Sanchez and the Jets O-line is much better than ours -- especially in short-yardage situations (we are the worst team in the NFL in short-yardage rushing).

I think you're overrating the Jets. I give them credit they're 3-1 with a victory over the Patriots, but I think as the season goes along they're going back to the middle of the pack. To say they will make the playoffs is nothing more than your own opinion.

Our offense should be better than theirs. They have a rookie QB with below average weapons.
I just thinking about this comparison during my commute this morning, it's going to be interesting how both these teams develope and parallel eachother
Originally posted by tjd808185:
Our offense is as good as an offense with a rookie QB.

I do think it's a good comparision, but I don't think it's something to brag about it.

I believe they have a stronger O-Line and that's the difference.
Originally posted by nvninerfan1:
Originally posted by tjd808185:
Our offense is as good as an offense with a rookie QB.

I do think it's a good comparision, but I don't think it's something to brag about it.

I believe they have a stronger O-Line and that's the difference.

And we have a better QB.
Good stats
Originally posted by DJD:
Also worth mentioning that both teams just picked up a new receiver today. Oh the 'irony' crabtree signs on the same exact day the jets make a big trade for edwards.

Ray Ratto is implying that the two were linked, and so does Mike Florio:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/ratto/detail?blogid=64&entry_id=49097

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2009/10/07/braylon-head-to-broadway/