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Why does Shaun Hill ALWAYS suck in the 3rd quarter?

Originally posted by D_Niner:
Originally posted by T83RR:
Shaun Hill's passer rating by quarter in 2008:

1st Quarter - 106.0
2nd Quarter - 85.3
3rd Quarter - 49.7
4th Quarter - 101.3


Shaun Hill's passer rating by quarter in Week 1 of 2009:

1st Quarter - 83.8
2nd Quarter - 93.3
3rd Quarter - 39.6
4th Quarter - 108.5



It really is remarkable. I guarantee this is the biggest dip in the league for any quarterback for any one quarter. If he could fix his third quarter, he'd be a top 10 QB, easy.

If you're going to look at his 1 game in 2009 then you better look at his 3 games in 2007...

1st Quarter - 86.4
2nd Quarter - 90.7
3rd Quarter - 123.7
4th Quarter - 98.1

Link


21 attempts is an extremely poor sample size, and thus your data is largely irrelevant.
Originally posted by T83RR:
Originally posted by D_Niner:
Originally posted by T83RR:
Shaun Hill's passer rating by quarter in 2008:

1st Quarter - 106.0
2nd Quarter - 85.3
3rd Quarter - 49.7
4th Quarter - 101.3


Shaun Hill's passer rating by quarter in Week 1 of 2009:

1st Quarter - 83.8
2nd Quarter - 93.3
3rd Quarter - 39.6
4th Quarter - 108.5



It really is remarkable. I guarantee this is the biggest dip in the league for any quarterback for any one quarter. If he could fix his third quarter, he'd be a top 10 QB, easy.

If you're going to look at his 1 game in 2009 then you better look at his 3 games in 2007...

1st Quarter - 86.4
2nd Quarter - 90.7
3rd Quarter - 123.7
4th Quarter - 98.1

Link


21 attempts is an extremely poor sample size, and thus your data is largely irrelevant.

But 3 attempts in 09 is revelent?

I don't think so.
Goin to the game on Sunday, hopefully Hill doesn't throw some of his horrid passes again like he did last week. I bet the Seahawks actually catch em when they hit their hands.
My main point is about 2008, where he has enough data to make a point. 2009 just seems to be continuing the trend.
To resolve this dispute, DNiner, I've taken a weighted average of Hill's 3rd-quarter by passer rating from 2007-2009, based on the number of attempts. This isn't perfectly accurate, but it's close.

His 3rd-quarter passer rating is 67.6, still well below his standard 85 or so.
[ Edited by T83RR on Sep 16, 2009 at 10:30 AM ]
Originally posted by T83RR:
My main point is about 2008, where he has enough data to make a point. 2009 just seems to be continuing the trend.

Which leads back to my point "If you're going to look at his 1 game in 2009 then you better look at his 3 games in 2007".

If you want to look at 2008 only; then also look at JT O'Suckagain's stats... His stats follow the same trend (without the ability to come back in the 4th quarter). Since 2 QBs show the same trend it indicates it's more play calling then QB performance IMO.

JTO 2008
1st 80.4
2nd 91.8
3rd 59.0
4th 51.9
That is not at all the same trend, sillyhead.


But I agree it is likely due to playcalling, at least in part.
[ Edited by T83RR on Sep 16, 2009 at 10:36 AM ]
Originally posted by T83RR:
That is not at all the same trend, sillyhead.

But I agree it is likely due to playcalling, at least in part.

I agree with you BOTH that it has more to do with play-calling then anything else. Can you remember the last time we outcoached an opponent? And how many times did you think to yourself, "Wow, they (the other team) made some good half-time adjustments." We almost always look sluggish, robotic and conservative coming out for the 2nd half. I don't know if this is ONLY Hill either...the entire team appears to play this way to a certain degree. Are they confused? Uninspired? Instructed to play on their heels (reactive)? Overthinking?
Originally posted by T83RR:
That is not at all the same trend, sillyhead.


But I agree it is likely due to playcalling, at least in part.

Both of our 2008 QB's ratings drop significantly after halftime. That is more of a trend than folks saying that Shaun's 2008 and 2009 3rd quarter drop off is a trend after only 1 game in 09.

I'm not saying that we don't have a problem here; I'm just saying that calling it a trend (or saying ALWAYS as in the title) after 1 hard fought game in 09 is a bit ridiculous. That, and the 08 3rd quarter problems did not only happen for Shaun; but, JTO as well (Maybe play calling was at fault here?).
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by T83RR:
That is not at all the same trend, sillyhead.

But I agree it is likely due to playcalling, at least in part.

I agree with you BOTH that it has more to do with play-calling then anything else. Can you remember the last time we outcoached an opponent? And how many times did you think to yourself, "Wow, they (the other team) made some good half-time adjustments." We almost always look sluggish, robotic and conservative coming out for the 2nd half. I don't know if this is ONLY Hill either...the entire team appears to play this way to a certain degree. Are they confused? Uninspired? Instructed to play on their heels (reactive)? Overthinking?

Yeah, it almost looks like we make 4th quarter adjustments. Kind of a, lets see what adjustments they made during the half and how do we adjust to that...
I think that Hill's 4th-quarter numbers are so good because it's often meaningless garbage time prevent junk. He is definitely better in the 4th quarter than the 3rd, but not to the degree shown by the stats.
Originally posted by T83RR:
I think that Hill's 4th-quarter numbers are so good because it's often meaningless garbage time prevent junk. He is definitely better in the 4th quarter than the 3rd, but not to the degree shown by the stats.

agreed
Originally posted by Method:
Originally posted by T83RR:
I think that Hill's 4th-quarter numbers are so good because it's often meaningless garbage time prevent junk. He is definitely better in the 4th quarter than the 3rd, but not to the degree shown by the stats.

agreed

Has anyone noticed how great Hill is on 3rd downs?
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by Method:
Originally posted by T83RR:
I think that Hill's 4th-quarter numbers are so good because it's often meaningless garbage time prevent junk. He is definitely better in the 4th quarter than the 3rd, but not to the degree shown by the stats.

agreed

Has anyone noticed how great Hill is on 3rd downs?

I don't know if I'd say great; but, compared to what we've seen from the QB the last 5 years, he is better...
Originally posted by D_Niner:
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by Method:
Originally posted by T83RR:
I think that Hill's 4th-quarter numbers are so good because it's often meaningless garbage time prevent junk. He is definitely better in the 4th quarter than the 3rd, but not to the degree shown by the stats.

agreed

Has anyone noticed how great Hill is on 3rd downs?

I don't know if I'd say great; but, compared to what we've seen from the QB the last 5 years, he is better...

Yeah, in 2008:

1st down: 82.1 rating
2nd down: 94.3 rating
3rd down: 89.2 rating


But on third and short, he's 11/12, which is pretty damned amazing.
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