The Niners' Year is Coming....in 2010

Originally posted by ninertico:
As always MD, you have some very insightful information that brings a different skew about our team. I agree with most of what you said, but I also believe that the "intangibles" will separate us from a winning or losing season. For example, I agree with GoFD in that Coach Singletary is clearly the reason why we improved at the end of last year. He brought out more from the same personnel and I believe he will only continue that and build upon it. This is but one intangible.

So with that in mind, I wanted to address each one of your points. This post deserves attention. Heck, it is one of the only ones in NinerTalk where we have some coherent and factual information to digest and I thank you for that.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
The Death of the Ghost of Steve Mariucci is coming soon.

Since Mooch was fired at the end of the 2002 season (be careful what you ask for, fans), after winning a spectacular playoff game against the NY Giants (Yes, our last playoff win was nearly 7 years ago), the Niners have had 6 consecutive losing seasons, gone through 4 head coaches, 8 starting QB's: Garcia, Rattay, Dilfer, Dorsey, Pickett, Smith, Hill, O'Sullivan; 6 years running of new offensive coordinators: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009. The parade of personnel is staggering.

This first paragraph says it all. How far the mighty have fallen. All we have to do is look at this and scream I want John York's head. Well, that is the past and we are moving forward with a brighter future with his son, the Eddie D. clone, Mr. Jed York. It starts at the top and always has. Thank God that at least we have a full-time owner who is heavily involved with our team now.

The Niners seem to be building something we haven't seen since Mooch was canned, a winning season. And that day is coming soon...in 2010.

Many Niners fans expect the 2009 season to end of the Ghost of Mooch, but the team is not ready yet. Here is why?

1) The starting QB- This is the year the Niners find their starter, but we don't know who that person will be going into camp. Either Hill or Smith is going to emerge as unquestioned man to run the ship in 2010. If Hill emerges as the starter in 2009, he will have his chance to prove to the NFL world that he deserves to be classified as a starter in this league, not just a guy who comes off the bench mid-way through a season to salvage whatever is left in the year. If Smith emerges as the season starter, or replaces an ineffective Hill, he will be the guy to possibly regain the franchise QB tag. Skeptics will say that neither man is the guy to lead the 49ers into the playoff. I disagree. It just isn't going to happen this season. Teams with unsettled QB battles in training camp rarely emerge past the .500 mark (unless they have a studly defense, which we don't). A year from now, we will know our starter, and that stability will help.

I agree wholeheartedly on this point. Hill has already proved he can win and come back from behind in the face of his own folly...speaks volumes!! Now, IMO, it comes down to Alex. Is he the future or are we spending another draft pick next year for a QB? So far so good as evidenced by the media articles about his progress in the off-season. It is time to put up or shut up for him and I am looking forward to his return to the field either way...it just has been awful for the young man.

2) The Niners' WR's are still a year away. The team should see the emergence of Josh Morgan, but the other side of the field is not going to be permanently occupied and satisfied until Michael Crabtree becomes productive. This is not going to happen in 2009. Crabtree is still recovering from his foot injury, will more than likely be a training camp holdout for some time, and has a LOT to learn before making an impact in the NFL. 2009 is his year to learn the game. 2010 is when we will see something. At TE, this is a big year for Vernon Davis. He has to show that he can run routes effectively, and be a player the team can count on. If so, the Niners have the complete package. If not, they are going to have to look elsewhere. Rookie TE's can make a sizable impact, so if Davis is not the answer, another player can step in and produce.

I too agree here.

However, I never underestimate talent. Talent is as talent does especially in the NFL. When you got "it" you use it naturally. I believe that Crabtree will make more of an impact than most here including you MD who I respect very much as someone who scouts well. Crabtree has been immediately successful every time he was introduced to a new level of football, high school and then college.

I expect him to continue that in the NFL. He may not be the 100 catches/10 TDs WR yet and would be ludicrous to expect that, too. Rather, I see him making some very important catches especially in the red-zone for us this year. IMO, he will be an impact player this year by the fourth game of the season...a little time to assimilate the NFL field culture.

Remember how bad our secondary was in 1979 before the three DB amigos. I kinda of feel that same perception with our WR squad this year. Finally, Crabtree, Morgan and Bruce alone make a great squad. Now add Jones, Hill, AB and Ziegler and the depth is actually quite good.

Both Alex and Hill will have more reliable targets than ever before which will remove the 8-9 man in the box.

Add Davis to this mix and we may just surprise ourselves on just how good we can be. Davis has taken great pains to become a better catcher and more flexible during the off-season. Yes, he drops one on occasion, but it is not the norm now. I see Raye using him more on short routes expecting YAC.

Just another weapon in Raye's arsenal to use. Yea, we have much better weapons offensively than ever before.

3) The Niners' OL will be fully ready to go in 2010. 2009 is an experiment at RT, and it could go many different directions. Either M. Smith could emerge as a healthy player who will lead the right side of our OL into 2010, or the Niners will install either a developmental player with upside (Boone, Bender) or use a draft choice. Staley, Heitmann (who Fox Sports stated was our best OL by far in 2008), Rachal, all look solid. At LG, either Baas will play well and pick up an extension, or the Niners will look elsewhere (draft, FA). The key is continuity, and the Niners have at least 3 solid guys going into 2010 that are written in stone.

Again, I agree.

The big question mark for 2009 on our OL is RT, period. Staley, Baas, Heitmann, and Rachal will be returning from last year. If Smith stays healthy, then he can give this OL that rock of Gibraltar on the other side for about two years while we develop Bender and Boone especially Boone as he could be a steal if he too keeps his head on straight.

For continuity reasons, I hope Baas is extended and Smith excels. Then, all hell will be breaking lose on DLs in 2010 with a vengeance!!!!! If Smith fails and Baas leaves, we will have another year of continuity pains.

4) The pass rush is not there, yet. The Manny Lawson experiment is ready to roll, and I'm hoping to be wrong in my prediction, but rushing the passer has never been Manny's strength (he is much better in coverage and running laterally), and I don't see anything to change my opinion at this point. If he has gained the supposed 15 pounds (which he supposedly stacks on every offseason...soon he should be approaching 300 pounds), and strength, we might have a decent pass rusher. However, Parys Haralson is this team's decent pass rusher. The team lacks a dominant pass rusher, and 2010 will be the year the team finally addresses this issue.

I remember reading just how important those front three are to the edge rushers so that they can keep the OLs off them. Well, we have more continuity on our DL with Balmer becoming better and competing against Evans and McD for the right side. J. Smith and Franklin are penciled in at LDE and NT.

Lawson and Haralson will be improved with another year under their belt in this system run by Manusky. Even if both are successful, I still look toward next year for another pass-rusher especially as 3-4 WILL rich as the 2010 draft will be.

This D has improved and already did well against the run. Hopefully, we don't have to wait until 2010 to see the pass-rush where I, too, hope you are wrong about Manny.

5) Dashon Goldson is going to have serious growing pains. While the board loves to bash Mark Roman (deservedly so in terms of forcing turnovers), Roman was a solid, steady and seasoned deep defender. Goldson gives playmaking ability, but expect a spike in deep home runs against the Niners. Spectacular versus steady. I'll take the risk on spectacular, but the Niners may need to visit the draft next season if Goldson does not work out.

He just seems to make plays in practice and I remember he got so burned in that NO game. I thought something was wrong with him injury-wise though. I think his success will be contingent upon his pass-rushing teammates. If their QBs get as much time as they did in 2008, then 2009 won't matter for Dashon as he will get torched.

The other safety, M. Lewis, is who concerns me. He's getting up there in age and use his body like brick wall. How long can he handle that kind of constant pounding? He can't. Therefore, we need a SS in next year's draft...do you think so? I think the secondary may still be very susceptible to big plays especially if something happens to Lewis, God forbid.

6) Singletary, Raye, and company need time to get it all together. I expect the Niners will retain all of their main coaches (Sing, Manusky, Raye) for 2010, and that continuity is going to help us. This season, we are going to see the growing pains of transition, once again. A new OC means a new start again, and that typically spells trouble for a franchise that has not adapted well to the continual line of OC that spin through the team every year.

Another agreement.

It will take the season for all of them to gel together. However, the focus will be on Raye more so than the others including Singletary, IMO. Because of all the turn over in our OC, this is another year were change can have a negative impact. It just doesn't feel that way though especially through the off-season programs.

The players especially the QBs are familiar with the type of offense he runs and started to get acclimated very quickly to it. I keep hearing and reading how Raye's offense is very similar to Turner's (frickin' rat!!). The other thing I read is that Raye molds his offense to his players and not the other way around.

That alone is huge and could make for a breakout year for our offense from a very optimistic point of view.

7) The Niners will have 2 first round selections next season. I believe the team will still need to draft some playmakers in 2010 (maybe a Will pass rusher, maybe a reliable TE, maybe a stable RT, maybe a stud FS). But, slowly, the amount of new talent needed to make a run is shrinking. The Niners appear to be set at virtually every position on offense (outside of RT, LG and maybe TE), and defense (Will, NT, maybe FS and CB). The club has wisely extended players to keep them from running away, and that bodes well down the road.

I love next year's draft. Three picks within the first 64 in a much more talented draft than this year's. This draft seems to be very deep in DE/OLB hybrids. There also seems to be some very good RTs and OGs available in later rounds, too. I also see that the safety class will be pretty good at the top. Lots to be excited about...that is for sure!!!

I could be wrong on my prediction for 2010. The Ghost of Mooch could be killed off in 2009. The curse of the Super Bowl loser ALWAYS kills off their victim (Cards better watch out), the Rams and Hawks appear weak. However, I just don't see this year as the year, and I hope fans do not become discouraged in 2009.

The run begins in 2010.

I still think and believe that this year could be our year to wake up the NFL. We may not win a SuperBowl, but we will make our own division and NFC take some serious notice. I believe we can win the NFC West because of our weak division especially since AZ's OC and DC left for greener pastures in KC. We will see how the players respond to them.

The other one that concerns me is Seattle and that D of theirs. Those LBs will be formidable and should not be underestimated. I just think we will be more physical just because of who we have as our HC and that will separate us from the rest.

The Rams will be picking in the top five again.

I think 2009 will be a good year for us preparing us for our sixth SuperBowl in 2010!

Thanks again for your insight...it is greatly appreciated especially in these times of lull.

Go 49ers!

I hope you are right about the Niners. Thanks for your gentle analysis.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Excellent post MadDog; you make a number of interesting points that are worth considering--if for no other reason than to temper the enthusiasm that tends to run rampant at this time of year.

And its nice to see that, at least in the long term (for 2010) you are optimistic about the team's improvement.

I tend to agree, somewhat, with GoFD, that the change in HC should make a difference this year. The team should be better this year, IMHO, because of that change.

So far, we have seen improvements in the team's morale, in its conditioning, in the intensity and focus at OTAs and minicamps, and there's no reason to expect that to change for training camp and beyond. Ultimately, that attitude and focus should translate onto the field on Sundays, one hopes.

Irrespective of the actual won-loss record this year, however, I expect that it will be much more fun to watch Niner games than it has been in the past several years.

If Jimmy Raye proves to be a capable play caller, and Singletary proves himself a capable game manager (he appeared capable enough last season and should only improve), then the team may play somewhat "above its head" this season. IMHO.

Either way, however, your optimism for the 2010 season is shared.

I also think the team will improve, but I'm not sure that will translate to more wins. For some, the above statement does not make sense. However, improved play does not always translate to more wins and losses. I project a 7 win season right now.

This is the season of "ifs", which makes football so much more interesting that sports with pre-determined playoff teams, and pre-determined scrubs, like NBA basketball.

I understand and agree, the team should improve, but that may not mean more wins. Much depends on the schedule, on injuries, on plain luck. I am somewhat more optimistic, but your prediction is not unrealistic, IMHO.

Irrespective of wins and loses, however, the team should be more fun to watch.

Watching Nolan's Big Nickel defense give up yards and allow the other team to eat up the clock on offense was hard to take, game after game. Such a waste of talent on the field.

Perhaps this year things will not only be more interesting to watch, but some bounces will go our way, we will catch some teams by surprise, etc.

Seems likely that Singletary will, at a minimum, have the team well conditioned and mentally focused. That may not be enough to make up for a lack of talent in some areas, but might earn us an unexpected win or two.

Although there is quite a ways to go, at least it appears that things are headed in the right direction, at last.

I think a good start is critical to what happens this year. If we come out of the gate losing this team could be sunk quick, and players may start to tune out MS and his old school style. This would be disatrous. If we can just hover around .500 initially while the team adjusts and gells things could go very well. The division is very shaky, I don't see Warner playing all 16 games again, if Hasselbeck isn't his old self, that team has issues as well with nobody on offense that scares anyone. A few injuries here and there and 8-8 could win this division, without the team being all that much better than last year. I would agree with the initial assessment that 2010 is likely the year they take a dramatic leap, unless we ignore the same needs we had going in to this draft again.[/left]

Originally posted by TX9R:
I think a good start is critical to what happens this year. If we come out of the gate losing this team could be sunk quick, and players may start to tune out MS and his old school style. This would be disatrous. If we can just hover around .500 initially while the team adjusts and gells things could go very well. The division is very shaky, I don't see Warner playing all 16 games again, if Hasselbeck isn't his old self, that team has issues as well with nobody on offense that scares anyone. A few injuries here and there and 8-8 could win this division, without the team being all that much better than last year. I would agree with the initial assessment that 2010 is likely the year they take a dramatic leap, unless we ignore the same needs we had going in to this draft again.[/left]

A good start is going to be critical. I'm just not so sure the pieces will be in place this year. Hence, the greater optimism for 2010.

I believe we will be a very competitive team this year. But one thing that people moslty forget to mention when talking about our Receiver's is JASON HILL, who i thought played tremendous when given the opportunity. I honestly believe he has a chance to challenge for a starting spot if he can stay healthy, so to be honest with our WR's i seem as the X-factor, not Crabtree, while i like the pick, he hasn't played a down yet.

If S. Hill wins the job, the only thing we have to worry about is his noodle arm, because we could have won the game at Dallas if he hadn't thrown that interception into the endzone right after Manny Lawson's pick in that game. Then the game @st louis, he completely made me s**t my pants with fear. ( i know it's nasty but im a true fan and im just being honest .) and that long bomb that Morgan caught to win the game, was an underthorwn pass to J.Hill. I've re-watched that game 5 times now. But if he wins the Job, we know we have leadership and swagger which can carry over onto the offense. (not JTO swagger which leads to another f**king turnover)

If A. Smith wins the Job, we still dont know what we have with him? and that could be a a good or bad thing i just have no f**king idea yet. While at the beggining of the 07 season he did show accuracy ( like the preseason game against the Broncos, The Arizona (but we had receivers with hands of stone that night, The rams and Steelers game) we dont really know the truth because they would not let Alex throw the f**king ball that year. (hence the "Free Alex" T-shirts). But once the motherf**ker tries to play with a bad shoulder, coach Loser (Nowin) lets him air it out. Im down on Alex but not out.

The Defense is ready, once Singletary came on and gave Manusky freedom, our players were playing with balls and not playing soft like before. With nolan the s**ttest teams could run the ball on us (see Julius Jones first game against the seahawks of last season. they didnt have any receivers, but we are still scared to blitz because we have a "BIG NICKEL".)

As we all know, any team has a chance any year, so i see no reason as to why we can't be that team this year.

MD, please explain why the optimism. I get the problems for 2009. But why should we expect all these "if's" to turn into answers, rather than remain questions?

It's pretty simple. If we build on last year we will end it, if we regress we wont. I think we will have an exciting year.

A lot of what happens in 2009 (well, also 2010 for that matter) will be determined by two things:

1) Relative strength of schedule. Although there's some unpredictability from year to year -- look at what happens to SB losers as a rule (although if the Cards succumb to the rule, this works in the Niners' favor) -- the NFC West should have some advantages. FWIW, looking forward to the 2010 draft, the Jags seem to have a pretty tough row to hoe.

2) Injuries. The fortunes of the Niners -- and of all of their opponents -- will be heavily affected by who is snakebit and who isn't. The relative parity of first-string talent in the league, and the relative lack of depth, makes even a couple of injuries potentially devastating.

[ Edited by 9erThrowBack on Jul 26, 2009 at 08:32:10 ]

This will be a fun rollercoaster of a year. lots of ups & downs. I will say it. We will not make the playoffs. It will be damn close though. We will see the team gell together as a unit. This is singletary's first full year as a head coach, and he will & needs to learn and will. It will make him a better coach. The offense will struggle i'm sure since our o-line is still suspect & it's a new scheme. Very few teams with new systems tear it up in their first year. Plus Seattle & Arizona will still be tough. We are very close though don't get me wrong. I really think we are 1 or 2 wins away from the playoffs. We have a hard schedule to.

Look. We don't have a QB. I'm not saying a starter, we just don't have a starting QB on our roster. None of our QB's would start on another team. period. Unless Alex Smith wakes up from the dead and shows us something. Hill plays good when he comes in, but he's been playing against mediocre teams if that. Don't say the Jets or Skins where good last year.

Our secondary is very suspect especially losing Harris. Sure Bly & Brown will step up, but they are not starters. they are mediocre. they won't be the solution long term. sorry if you think they are, but they will get beat allot this year, then goldson will be in for one hell of a ride. we need a true safety & a legit corner. something we & clements needs.

We need a damn NT!!!!! I can't stress that anymore. We wet the bed this offseason in getting one. We have solid DE's.

Next year is when I think we make the turn, and get into the playoffs. why 2010. Here's why:

-2 first round draft picks, and next years draft is better than this years. We are in a great spot to land 2 first round studs, or even trade up. (Taylor Mays anyone)
-The DT's in next years draft are deep & solid.
-much better qb's will be availiable.
-A nice crop of FA will be available, but I see us not being greedy and playing it safe like we did this year.

but most importantly we got that full year of singletary under our belts & we will come so close we can taste it. the draft will really help us out allot. we are close though!

For you -

PRIOR THREAD WITH VARIOUS ANALYSES

MadDog got killed for starting this thread, but can you really disagree with anything that was said after having a month to reflect on things?

We need to be realistic with our expectations. Jed York himself stated, when he named Singletary coach, that last year would be the last time the season ends at the end of the regular season. They obviously expect to win now. Having said that, we all know that anyone that's worth a damn plays this game to win a championship.

This franchise has developed a "culture" of losing that hadn't been seen since before Walsh. If Mike Singletary can change that and ultimately it will fall on the players (that McCloughan acquired) then he absolutely deserves to be the head coach [there is sentiment among 49ers' fans that feel if the 49ers don't make the playoffs Jed should clean house and go after Shanahan/Holmgren regardless of whether or not they want to coach again especially for a team that lacks an established QB].

Even if the 49ers only go 8-8, that will be their 1st non-losing season in 7 years. With 2 1st round picks, and cap space even if FA isn't what it used to be, the 49ers will be in a position to plug holes that will allow them to compete with the NEs, Indys, Phillys, NY Giants of this league.

I know we say this every year and it gets old, but every team goes through a rough patch, in our case its hard to take because the 49ers used to be so good, but that was a different era which will never be duplicated.

If we get draft a Sack demon & Beast of a nose tackle

I'm very optimistic for this season, but we must get off to a fast start!

Originally posted by FL9er:
MadDog got killed for starting this thread, but can you really disagree with anything that was said after having a month to reflect on things?

We need to be realistic with our expectations. Jed York himself stated, when he named Singletary coach, that last year would be the last time the season ends at the end of the regular season. They obviously expect to win now. Having said that, we all know that anyone that's worth a damn plays this game to win a championship.

This franchise has developed a "culture" of losing that hadn't been seen since before Walsh. If Mike Singletary can change that and ultimately it will fall on the players (that McCloughan acquired) then he absolutely deserves to be the head coach [there is sentiment among 49ers' fans that feel if the 49ers don't make the playoffs Jed should clean house and go after Shanahan/Holmgren regardless of whether or not they want to coach again especially for a team that lacks an established QB].

Even if the 49ers only go 8-8, that will be their 1st non-losing season in 7 years. With 2 1st round picks, and cap space even if FA isn't what it used to be, the 49ers will be in a position to plug holes that will allow them to compete with the NEs, Indys, Phillys, NY Giants of this league.

I know we say this every year and it gets old, but every team goes through a rough patch, in our case its hard to take because the 49ers used to be so good, but that was a different era which will never be duplicated.

I think recent events point to the Niners improving their record. I had the Seahawks winning the division, but with Walter Jones struggling with health issues, I'm not sure they can compete with the Niners anymore.

The Super Bowl curse will hit the Cardinals. Only one Super Bowl losing team made the playoffs the following year this decade. And, if you do not believe in the curse, just think about the Pats not making the playoffs last year after going nearly undefeated in 2007.

The Rams are the Rams. Just not very good.

This could be the year the Niners are able to get into the playoffs with a 9-7 or even an 8-8 year. This division is going to get kicked around by the rest of the NFL.
That being said, I still think the Niners really begin to look like a contender in 2010.

we are a real starting qb, a clear cut #1 wr, a run stuffing dt, a dominant pass rusher (de or olb), a lock down or true #1 cb, and a ballhawk saftey away to compete for a title. and we have none.