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The Niners' Year is Coming....in 2010

The Death of the Ghost of Steve Mariucci is coming soon.

Since Mooch was fired at the end of the 2002 season (be careful what you ask for, fans), after winning a spectacular playoff game against the NY Giants (Yes, our last playoff win was nearly 7 years ago), the Niners have had 6 consecutive losing seasons, gone through 4 head coaches, 8 starting QB's: Garcia, Rattay, Dilfer, Dorsey, Pickett, Smith, Hill, O'Sullivan; 6 years running of new offensive coordinators: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009. The parade of personnel is staggering.

The Niners seem to be building something we haven't seen since Mooch was canned, a winning season. And that day is coming soon...in 2010.

Many Niners fans expect the 2009 season to end of the Ghost of Mooch, but the team is not ready yet. Here is why?

1) The starting QB- This is the year the Niners find their starter, but we don't know who that person will be going into camp. Either Hill or Smith is going to emerge as unquestioned man to run the ship in 2010. If Hill emerges as the starter in 2009, he will have his chance to prove to the NFL world that he deserves to be classified as a starter in this league, not just a guy who comes off the bench mid-way through a season to salvage whatever is left in the year. If Smith emerges as the season starter, or replaces an ineffective Hill, he will be the guy to possibly regain the franchise QB tag. Skeptics will say that neither man is the guy to lead the 49ers into the playoff. I disagree. It just isn't going to happen this season. Teams with unsettled QB battles in training camp rarely emerge past the .500 mark (unless they have a studly defense, which we don't). A year from now, we will know our starter, and that stability will help.

2) The Niners' WR's are still a year away. The team should see the emergence of Josh Morgan, but the other side of the field is not going to be permanently occupied and satisfied until Michael Crabtree becomes productive. This is not going to happen in 2009. Crabtree is still recovering from his foot injury, will more than likely be a training camp holdout for some time, and has a LOT to learn before making an impact in the NFL. 2009 is his year to learn the game. 2010 is when we will see something. At TE, this is a big year for Vernon Davis. He has to show that he can run routes effectively, and be a player the team can count on. If so, the Niners have the complete package. If not, they are going to have to look elsewhere. Rookie TE's can make a sizable impact, so if Davis is not the answer, another player can step in and produce.

3) The Niners' OL will be fully ready to go in 2010. 2009 is an experiment at RT, and it could go many different directions. Either M. Smith could emerge as a healthy player who will lead the right side of our OL into 2010, or the Niners will install either a developmental player with upside (Boone, Bender) or use a draft choice. Staley, Heitmann (who Fox Sports stated was our best OL by far in 2008), Rachal, all look solid. At LG, either Baas will play well and pick up an extension, or the Niners will look elsewhere (draft, FA). The key is continuity, and the Niners have at least 3 solid guys going into 2010 that are written in stone.

4) The pass rush is not there, yet. The Manny Lawson experiment is ready to roll, and I'm hoping to be wrong in my prediction, but rushing the passer has never been Manny's strength (he is much better in coverage and running laterally), and I don't see anything to change my opinion at this point. If he has gained the supposed 15 pounds (which he supposedly stacks on every offseason...soon he should be approaching 300 pounds), and strength, we might have a decent pass rusher. However, Parys Haralson is this team's decent pass rusher. The team lacks a dominant pass rusher, and 2010 will be the year the team finally addresses this issue.

5) Dashon Goldson is going to have serious growing pains. While the board loves to bash Mark Roman (deservedly so in terms of forcing turnovers), Roman was a solid, steady and seasoned deep defender. Goldson gives playmaking ability, but expect a spike in deep home runs against the Niners. Spectacular versus steady. I'll take the risk on spectacular, but the Niners may need to visit the draft next season if Goldson does not work out.

6) Singletary, Raye, and company need time to get it all together. I expect the Niners will retain all of their main coaches (Sing, Manusky, Raye) for 2010, and that continuity is going to help us. This season, we are going to see the growing pains of transition, once again. A new OC means a new start again, and that typically spells trouble for a franchise that has not adapted well to the continual line of OC that spin through the team every year.

7) The Niners will have 2 first round selections next season. I believe the team will still need to draft some playmakers in 2010 (maybe a Will pass rusher, maybe a reliable TE, maybe a stable RT, maybe a stud FS). But, slowly, the amount of new talent needed to make a run is shrinking. The Niners appear to be set at virtually every position on offense (outside of RT, LG and maybe TE), and defense (Will, NT, maybe FS and CB). The club has wisely extended players to keep them from running away, and that bodes well down the road.

I could be wrong on my prediction for 2010. The Ghost of Mooch could be killed off in 2009. The curse of the Super Bowl loser ALWAYS kills off their victim (Cards better watch out), the Rams and Hawks appear weak. However, I just don't see this year as the year, and I hope fans do not become discouraged in 2009.

The run begins in 2010.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Jul 23, 2009 at 7:53 PM ]
no the run begins 2009
singfan/Sabrason sighting saying we will make the playoffs in 2010 if we fire the whole staff and hire Shanahan/Holmgren/every other former 49er coach in 3... 2... 1....
Decent read, but it feels rather incomplete. No mention of the CB or NT situation? Did you really call Roman solid at some point?
It starts NOW! Look at the upside of what we now have on the roster. If just one guy, maybe two guys, break out and exceed expectations we will run over everybody in the west. No Doubt!!!
Part of me wants to agree, part of me doesn't.

The truth is, there are going to be questions at some position or the other going into EVERY season.

The thing is though that sometimes it can all come together but more often than not it can fall apart. Look around the league, how confident did you think that fans of the Dolphins, Cards and Falcons were?

Probably not a lot.

-9fA
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I think you underestimate the defense. The defense will lead the team to an 8-8 to 10-6 record. Maybe not the playoffs, but the team will be .500 or better.
Smart analysis. Here's the positive spin.
(First of all you mis-typed Dashon and studly).

The argument that a team will be better next year doesn't preclude success this year. This applies to most of your points.
1. Hill has already won as QB.
2. Bruce is proven. Morgan has shown enough for us to believe he'll produce again. Crabtree needs little seasoning for his favorite college paydirt play, the wide receiver screen.
3. If Marvel Smith is healthy in 2010, he'll be healthy this year.
4. Haralson and Lawson didn't play fulltime last year. Lawson barely played on passing downs and he still came up 3 sacks.
5. Roman was the prevent safety. This hurt the defense because it kept them on the field while first downs were caught in front of Roman. If teams beat Goldson, at least the defense gets off the field fast. The trade for turnovers will be an advantage this year.
6. This offense is similar to 2006, one the majority of the players already know.
7. Come on 2010.

We may have a better team next year, but we may not need to lower expectations this year.
[ Edited by Paul_Hofer on Jul 23, 2009 at 4:57 PM ]
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Sweet, I guess we'll see your next post a year from now. We'll let you know how it turned out.
The Niners' Year is Coming....in 2009!!!
Originally posted by oldman9er:
No mention of the CB or NT situation?

What CB situation? We're fine at CB. Nate Clements is very good, Dre Bly is probably as good as Walt Harris has been lately, which is good. Tarell Brown looks promising. Where's the issue?
Originally posted by 49erRider:
Originally posted by oldman9er:
No mention of the CB or NT situation?

What CB situation? We're fine at CB. Nate Clements is very good, Dre Bly is probably as good as Walt Harris has been lately, which is good. Tarell Brown looks promising. Where's the issue?

I figured that he would go into some detail of:
(1) will Tarell Brown impress and prove to be a good #2 or even #3 CB in the near future?
(2) will the 32 year old, 1-year signed Dre Bly play well and return for 2010?
(3) will Spencer finally stay free of injury and play well enough to retain his contract?
(4) assuming questions 1-3 are on the negative side, will we draft an early CB?

I do feel that we are currently set pretty well at CB, but as far as 2010? Lots of fair issues to question.
Originally posted by oldman9er:
Originally posted by 49erRider:
Originally posted by oldman9er:
No mention of the CB or NT situation?

What CB situation? We're fine at CB. Nate Clements is very good, Dre Bly is probably as good as Walt Harris has been lately, which is good. Tarell Brown looks promising. Where's the issue?

I figured that he would go into some detail of:
(1) will Tarell Brown impress and prove to be a good #2 or even #3 CB in the near future?
(2) will the 32 year old, 1-year signed Dre Bly play well and return for 2010?
(3) will Spencer finally stay free of injury and play well enough to retain his contract?
(4) assuming questions 1-3 are on the negative side, will we draft an early CB?

I do feel that we are currently set pretty well at CB, but as far as 2010? Lots of fair issues to question.

Oh OK, I gotchya.
Hope it is this year baby!
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
The Death of the Ghost of Steve Mariucci is coming soon.

Since Mooch was fired at the end of the 2002 season (be careful what you ask for, fans), after winning a spectacular playoff game against the NY Giants (Yes, our last playoff win was nearly 7 years ago), the Niners have had 6 consecutive losing seasons, gone through 4 head coaches, 8 starting QB's: Garcia, Rattay, Dilfer, Dorsey, Pickett, Smith, Hill, O'Sullivan; 6 years running of new offensive coordinators: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009. The parade of personnel is staggering.

The Niners seem to be building something we haven't seen since Mooch was canned, a winning season. And that day is coming soon...in 2010.

Many Niners fans expect the 2009 season to end of the Ghost of Mooch, but the team is not ready yet. Here is why?

1) The starting QB- This is the year the Niners find their starter, but we don't know who that person will be going into camp. Either Hill or Smith is going to emerge as unquestioned man to run the ship in 2010. If Hill emerges as the starter in 2009, he will have his chance to prove to the NFL world that he deserves to be classified as a starter in this league, not just a guy who comes off the bench mid-way through a season to salvage whatever is left in the year. If Smith emerges as the season starter, or replaces an ineffective Hill, he will be the guy to possibly regain the franchise QB tag. Skeptics will say that neither man is the guy to lead the 49ers into the playoff. I disagree. It just isn't going to happen this season. Teams with unsettled QB battles in training camp rarely emerge past the .500 mark (unless they have a study defense, which we don't). A year from now, we will know our starter, and that stability will help.

2) The Niners' WR's are still a year away. The team should see the emergence of Josh Morgan, but the other side of the field is not going to be permanently occupied and satisfied until Michael Crabtree becomes productive. This is not going to happen in 2009. Crabtree is still recovering from his foot injury, will more than likely be a training camp holdout for some time, and has a LOT to learn before making an impact in the NFL. 2009 is his year to learn the game. 2010 is when we will see something. At TE, this is a big year for Vernon Davis. He has to show that he can run routes effectively, and be a player the team can count on. If so, the Niners have the complete package. If not, they are going to have to look elsewhere. Rookie TE's can make a sizable impact, so if Davis is not the answer, another player can step in and produce.

3) The Niners' OL will be fully ready to go in 2010. 2009 is an experiment at RT, and it could go many different directions. Either M. Smith could emerge as a healthy player who will lead the right side of our OL into 2010, or the Niners will install either a developmental player with upside (Boone, Bender) or use a draft choice. Staley, Heitmann (who Fox Sports stated was our best OL by far in 2008), Rachal, all look solid. At LG, either Baas will play well and pick up an extension, or the Niners will look elsewhere (draft, FA). The key is continuity, and the Niners have at least 3 solid guys going into 2010 that are written in stone.

4) The pass rush is not there, yet. The Manny Lawson experiment is ready to roll, and I'm hoping to be wrong in my prediction, but rushing the passer has never been Manny's strength (he is much better in coverage and running laterally), and I don't see anything to change my opinion at this point. If he has gained the supposed 15 pounds (which he supposedly stacks on every offseason...soon he should be approaching 300 pounds), and strength, we might have a decent pass rusher. However, Parys Haralson is this team's decent pass rusher. The team lacks a dominant pass rusher, and 2010 will be the year the team finally addresses this issue.

5) Dashan Goldson is going to have serious growing pains. While the board loves to bash Mark Roman (deservedly so in terms of forcing turnovers), Roman was a solid, steady and seasoned deep defender. Goldson gives playmaking ability, but expect a spike in deep home runs against the Niners. Spectacular versus steady. I'll take the risk on spectacular, but the Niners may need to visit the draft next season if Goldson does not work out.

6) Singletary, Raye, and company need time to get it all together. I expect the Niners will retain all of their main coaches (Sing, Manusky, Raye) for 2010, and that continuity is going to help us. This season, we are going to see the growing pains of transition, once again. A new OC means a new start again, and that typically spells trouble for a franchise that has not adapted well to the continual line of OC that spin through the team every year.

7) The Niners will have 2 first round selections next season. I believe the team will still need to draft some playmakers in 2010 (maybe a Will pass rusher, maybe a reliable TE, maybe a stable RT, maybe a stud FS). But, slowly, the amount of new talent needed to make a run is shrinking. The Niners appear to be set at virtually every position on offense (outside of RT, LG and maybe TE), and defense (Will, NT, maybe FS and CB). The club has wisely extended players to keep them from running away, and that bodes well down the road.

I could be wrong on my prediction for 2010. The Ghost of Mooch could be killed off in 2009. The curse of the Super Bowl loser ALWAYS kills off their victim (Cards better watch out), the Rams and Hawks appear weak. However, I just don't see this year as the year, and I hope fans do not become discouraged in 2009.

The run begins in 2010.

Your argument is compelling for why not 2009, but where is the argument to suggest that 2010 will turn things around. For example, RT, FS, Pass Rush, NT, LG, and CB are all major questions. What makes you so sure that any of those, let alone many of those, questions will become answered. Not trying to disprove your argument, I guess I'm just trying to get more of your opinion on where you see the positives. Do you think Scotty will use the draft picks wisely? Why so? What do you think of the drafting he's done so far that makes you think one way or the other on the issue? Things like that, you know?