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Do we have a realistic shot at winning the NFC West?

Originally posted by Psinex:
Originally posted by Psinex:
Originally posted by TexasNiner:

I think we have a better shot against the Colts and a tough matchup against the Texans. I think that the Colts are slightly above .500 team this year, I'm surprised people still think they are going to be a powerhouse. The other games against Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler are going to require our pass rush to wake up. If our pass rush gets going, then I think we have a pretty good shot at taking down the teams with good QB's.

I just went with the easiest assumptions. The Colts are a perennial playoff team with one of the best QBs in the NFL. We are not close to them on any level. To say we have a better than 50% chance of beating them, would mean that they have fallen off and we have risen, both at dramatic levels.

See this is the attitude of a losing team. That's what holds this team back. "We're not close to them on any level." The Niners have to start believing that they are as good, if not better than any team in order to beat them. I think Singletary has motivated the players in a way that they feel they can beat anyone, regardless of what the media tells them they are supposed to be.

They aren't put into place, they are setting their pace. If you are talking about recent history, yes, we don't have any playoff appearances or titles that compare. But if you look at them state of the teams, I would take the Niners up and coming defense over the old and overrated Colts D. The Colts have a great offense, but last year their line seemed to have problems. They are not invincible.

And word, on the NFC West. Weakest division in football, yada yada. You still have to compete with other divisional teams to win the West. And if I remember, we did a pretty good job beating other divisional teams last year. It was the West that we couldn't seem to beat apart from St. Louis.

At this point, all you can do is take past results and a little bit of off season moves and try and predict a W/L record.

And for me, until the Colts, or any team, which currently wins 10+ games a year, every year, doesn't, you can't favor a team yet to go over .500 in recent memory over them. It's only logical.

I agree the team needs to feel they can beat anyone. And as a fan I WANT them to go 16-0. But, realistically, if you are trying to answer a question about their odds to win a division, before we've even seen a preseason game, you have to give the teams that have proven it the benefit of the doubt. Otherwise your just not being honest about the state of your compeition.

So, regardless of which teams you think are better or worse this year, looking at how many teams outside of our division we play who have been successful teams recently, we have a real challange. It will take very quick progress and many things coming together just right. To think otherwise isn't realistic. And the odds of EVERYTHING coming together just right like that aren't better than worse.

Can it happen? Of course, and we all want it to. But just wanting our team to be better and hoping that rookies suddenly make big impact or that role players become probowlers doens't suddenly put us in a class with the winningest teams in the NFL. No matter how much we want it to be true.

Until we prove it and until teams like that start losing more than they win, you can't pick us to win those games.
Originally posted by TexasNiner:
Originally posted by Psinex:
Originally posted by Psinex:
Originally posted by TexasNiner:

I think we have a better shot against the Colts and a tough matchup against the Texans. I think that the Colts are slightly above .500 team this year, I'm surprised people still think they are going to be a powerhouse. The other games against Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler are going to require our pass rush to wake up. If our pass rush gets going, then I think we have a pretty good shot at taking down the teams with good QB's.

I just went with the easiest assumptions. The Colts are a perennial playoff team with one of the best QBs in the NFL. We are not close to them on any level. To say we have a better than 50% chance of beating them, would mean that they have fallen off and we have risen, both at dramatic levels.

See this is the attitude of a losing team. That's what holds this team back. "We're not close to them on any level." The Niners have to start believing that they are as good, if not better than any team in order to beat them. I think Singletary has motivated the players in a way that they feel they can beat anyone, regardless of what the media tells them they are supposed to be.

They aren't put into place, they are setting their pace. If you are talking about recent history, yes, we don't have any playoff appearances or titles that compare. But if you look at them state of the teams, I would take the Niners up and coming defense over the old and overrated Colts D. The Colts have a great offense, but last year their line seemed to have problems. They are not invincible.

And word, on the NFC West. Weakest division in football, yada yada. You still have to compete with other divisional teams to win the West. And if I remember, we did a pretty good job beating other divisional teams last year. It was the West that we couldn't seem to beat apart from St. Louis.

At this point, all you can do is take past results and a little bit of off season moves and try and predict a W/L record.

And for me, until the Colts, or any team, which currently wins 10+ games a year, every year, doesn't, you can't favor a team yet to go over .500 in recent memory over them. It's only logical.

I agree the team needs to feel they can beat anyone. And as a fan I WANT them to go 16-0. But, realistically, if you are trying to answer a question about their odds to win a division, before we've even seen a preseason game, you have to give the teams that have proven it the benefit of the doubt. Otherwise your just not being honest about the state of your compeition.

So, regardless of which teams you think are better or worse this year, looking at how many teams outside of our division we play who have been successful teams recently, we have a real challange. It will take very quick progress and many things coming together just right. To think otherwise isn't realistic. And the odds of EVERYTHING coming together just right like that aren't better than worse.

Can it happen? Of course, and we all want it to. But just wanting our team to be better and hoping that rookies suddenly make big impact or that role players become probowlers doens't suddenly put us in a class with the winningest teams in the NFL. No matter how much we want it to be true.

Until we prove it and until teams like that start losing more than they win, you can't pick us to win those games.

Yes, being realistic is good if you don't want to be disappointed. I'm used to disappointment after several years of Nolan's teams. I think that one big factor that people may not cite for our second half resurgence (apart from Singletary) is getting Manny Lawson back in the lineup as a three down player. In Nolan's defense, he was only on the field situationally, so he was hardly being utilized. When he was back in, he was all over the place, looking like the player who had so much promise before his big injury in 2007.

I just see the simultaneous development of so many young players on our team. Manny Lawson, Patrick Willis, Vernon Davis, Kentwan Balmer, Dashon Goldson, Terrell Brown, Jason Hill and Josh Morgan...all of them have pretty high ceilings unlike our previous rosters clogged with players like Anthony Adams, Derek Smith and Tully Banta Cain. We have genuine talent now. Vernon may be the only one who may have plateaued, but I think it's obvious he's just not being utilized correctly. My favorite story was when the Baltimore Ravens were preparing for Ashley Lelie's speed, and we didn't even play him, haha. How f'ing dumb can coaches be?
Originally posted by Psinex:
Originally posted by Psinex:
Originally posted by TexasNiner:

I think we have a better shot against the Colts and a tough matchup against the Texans. I think that the Colts are slightly above .500 team this year, I'm surprised people still think they are going to be a powerhouse. The other games against Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler are going to require our pass rush to wake up. If our pass rush gets going, then I think we have a pretty good shot at taking down the teams with good QB's.

I just went with the easiest assumptions. The Colts are a perennial playoff team with one of the best QBs in the NFL. We are not close to them on any level. To say we have a better than 50% chance of beating them, would mean that they have fallen off and we have risen, both at dramatic levels.

See this is the attitude of a losing team. That's what holds this team back. "We're not close to them on any level." The Niners have to start believing that they are as good, if not better than any team in order to beat them. I think Singletary has motivated the players in a way that they feel they can beat anyone, regardless of what the media tells them they are supposed to be.

They aren't put into place, they are setting their pace. If you are talking about recent history, yes, we don't have any playoff appearances or titles that compare. But if you look at them state of the teams, I would take the Niners up and coming defense over the old and overrated Colts D. The Colts have a great offense, but last year their line seemed to have problems. They are not invincible.

And word, on the NFC West. Weakest division in football, yada yada. You still have to compete with other divisional teams to win the West. And if I remember, we did a pretty good job beating other divisional teams last year. It was the West that we couldn't seem to beat apart from St. Louis.

This is my main point. I don't think the NFC West is weak at all. We have a up and coming division and were gonna beat the crap out of each other. Take into account our non-divisional games (and they're pretty tough) we could have a very tough going this year. We need alot of things to fall into place to take the NFC West crown this season.
Yes, we have a shot at winning the division. The toughest games the team will face this year are late-November in Green Bay and December in Philly. Also, they have to play Indy in Indy. If they go 4-2 in the division and 6-4 out of the division, they'll win the NFC West.
http://blog.pressdemocrat.com/49ers/2009/07/lotsa-questions-remain-but-niners-have-reason-for-hope.html

Well in reading this article i have to agree with matt. To say we win the west is a little farfetched, because arizona is back and maybe better, and seatlle cant be counted out. So i say a good chance of maybe making it to the playoffs, and thats a good maybe, but win the west, not this year.
The question is do we have a "realistic shot."

Yes.

The question is not "will we win the division."
Two reasons why we might not make it to the playoffs. No pass rush and Jimmy Raye. I honestly think that too.
Originally posted by NinersSF:
Two reasons why we might not make it to the playoffs. No pass rush and Jimmy Raye. I honestly think that too.

That's right. If we can't mount a better pass rush and if Jimmy Raye's system doesn't work as well as we hope, we won't make it. But, really, you could say that any year. If we don't rush the passer and if our current offensive system doesn't work well, we will not be successful.
Originally posted by jays9ers:
Originally posted by Niners99:
Originally posted by jays9ers:
The only way were going to make the play-offs is if we win the west. I don't see us being competitive enough for a wild card spot in the NFC, so winning the west is paramount. But I have serious doubts that we will be capable of winning the NFC west because with the exception of the Rams every team has improved.

Cardinals- Super Bowl runner ups. I really don't see them falling off dramatically because they lost the Superbowl. They still have that potent offense in place, and with the addition of Beanie Wells to their back field they will be tough to handle this season.

Seahawks- With an aging Hassleback at the helm they should rebound from their disappointing season. Yea Hassleback is getting old but he's still a solid QB. They upgraded their WR with the addition of Who's your mamma and the defense got some solid draft choices.

Rams- Well...... there in total rebuild mode. I see us sweeping them.

49ers- Ok to good draft in my opinion... Pass rush is still a big ?? The O-line needs to pass protect much better than they did last year. QB play will ultimately determine our fate.... I'm cautiously optimistic about this season. We may improve as a team but it may not reflect in our overall record..

our division is horrible. of course we have a realistic chance.

the seahawks and rams arent as good overall as we are, and the Cards super bowl season was a total fluke. they just got hot at the right time. they were only a 9-7 team who was limping into the playoffs until a couple hot final games. Gore scores that TD at the 2, and were in instead.

You guys are really fooling yourselfs if you think the Cards arnt gonna be tough this season. They have 2 top 10 WR and their slot WR had 1000+ yards as well. Add a big bruising Beanie Wells into the mix and their offense only gets better.

The Seahawks have a better QB than us a solid veteran O-line and an upgraded WR corps. They will not be a cake walk this season. They beat us with Seneca Wallace at the helm last season!

The rams.... Well.... yea we should sweep.

i dont know if youve noticed, but theyve had Fitz/Boldin at WR for years. our DB can handle them. we added Clements specifically to handle the cards. and they really havent burned us much at all the last couple years. we always do surprisingly well against their pass game.


and you want us to fear Beanie Wells? please. just like the NFC North was supposed to fear Rashard Mendenhall last year?

weve always been a good run d, even during our bad years. warner is a year older, they really didnt upgrade their team much, and they lost their whole HC and coordinator staff. it could end up being a down year for them very easily.

as for the Seahawks....its the same old team. even at their peak when they were a super bowl contender, they were really only a 9-10 win team. always have been. they have too many holes. if we can go up to seattle and silence their crowd and beat them, we can surely beat them in SF. i wouldnt be surprised if we won 5 out of 6 division games this year. not an incredibly difficult task.
Without a doubt.
We have more then a realistic shot, we are going to win 'our' division, order will be restored in 'our' division, this year, finally, 7 freakin' years has been too darn long, can't wait for September!
We will win our dividion by 2 games this year.

Warner ain't s**t!
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We had a very real shot last year and we have only gotten better.
Originally posted by 49ERwhiner:
I have to agree that cautiously optimistic is how I feel too. I think we match up fairly well against the teams in our division. Pass rush is still a concern in my mind , until I can finally see some of our players improving. We have as good of a chance as the Seahawks and Cardinals ------ they are always tough opponents for us but our games are usually pretty close matches.

I have to agree those games with the Seahawks and Cardinals are usually hard fought close games so we have a shot at it.
I think both Scott and Singletary follow one of Walsh's basic rules - build your team to beat the division. How do you beat strong passing teams? With big dominating offenses that control the ball, a strong pass rush and physical secondaries that punish their receivers.

I'm not saying this is what we have; just that this is their emphasis and I like it.