Originally posted by Psinex:
Originally posted by TexasNiner:
It seems like everyone agrees on the general strength of the NFC. We have a shot, anyone but the Rams do. So, let's assume a pretty fair best case scenario: That we go 4-2 in the division. Sweep the Rams, split with Seattle and the Cards, or whatever. I don't think anything better than that is realistic and less is possible.
That leaves us with the following games:
Vikes, Falcons, Texans, Colts, Titans, Bears, Packers, Jags, Eagles and Lions.
Likely easy calls: Losses to the Vikes, Colts and Eagles and wins at the Texans and Lions.
That puts us at 6 and 5. With the Falcons, Titans, Bears, Pack and Jags left.
We have to go at least 3-2 in those games to get over .500. 4 and 1 to get to 10 and 6.
You'd have to think it will take at least 10-6 to win the divison, and it might take more.
Very hard to look at that schedule and think realisticly, even if certain games flip around, that there are at least, let alone more than, 10 wins on that schedule.
I'd say our chances are less than 50%. We will either need to go better than 4-2 in the division or beat a very high percentage of good teams outside of our division. We have very little room for error. One or two games that don't go our way and that's the difference.
I think we have a better shot against the Colts and a tough matchup against the Texans. I think that the Colts are slightly above .500 team this year, I'm surprised people still think they are going to be a powerhouse. The other games against Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler are going to require our pass rush to wake up. If our pass rush gets going, then I think we have a pretty good shot at taking down the teams with good QB's.
I just went with the easiest assumptions. The Colts are a perennial playoff team with one of the best QBs in the NFL. We are not close to them on any level. To say we have a better than 50% chance of beating them, would mean that they have fallen off and we have risen, both at dramatic levels.
Sure, we could win a game or two that we don't expect to, but we could lose a game or two that we think is a win as well. So, just being objective, and assuming the close games get split fairly evenly, it's hard to project us doing better than 10-6, and that may or may not be enough to win the division.
And one or more extra loss in there really puts us at a very limited chance of winning the West.
Given that, even if we improve and look like a soild playoff caliber team, it's hard to say that the odds are in our favor.
So, when the question is do we have a "realistic" shot, which to me, means at least 50% or better, I'd have to say no. Do we have a SHOT? Sure, but the favorites have to be the Cards and at best, we are tied with Seattle for second place (odds wise) to win the West.
That makes us a bit of a risky bet, if not an outright longshot statistically. CAN we do it? Sure. But we need one or both of Seattle and Zona to takes some hits AND we need to beat some pretty good teams outside of our division pretty consistantly.
It will take a very quick and very consistant turn around to make that happen. And not that it can't, but it would take a lot of things going very right very soon.
Hard to say that having that much stuff come together so well and so fat is "realistic". At least from what we have seen to date.