MadDog49er Seven Round Projection April 24 2015 and Notes

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by stonecold590:
No Zach waggenmann?

Had Wagenmann there two days ago, and then he broke his foot in a pre-draft workout this week. He will be out about two months, and I think that pushes him out of the draft. Could be wrong, but for a guy thought to be a late rounder, any bad news that compromises his ability to go through OTAs and mini-camp is a bad setback (most teams wrap up OTAs and mini camps by mid-June).

It was a clean break and will be back to 100% in mid to late june

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Love him, think he is a terrific player. A combo of Anderson with the 3rd and Parry with the 4th rounder (if he is there) would be outstanding (for the record, I am not a Stanford fan). He is not a jumbo-sized NT, but like former Ravens NT Kelly Gregg, gets the job done. Really liked his work throughout the year, especially against Notre Dame and USC. Holds up very well against the run, and has solid lateral movement skills. High effort, high motor, and outstanding read and react skills (vastly underrated skill for a DL). Count me in on him anywhere in the fourth round.

thank you.

just one more question:
do you project him to be a 2-gap-NT in the NFL?

Just your standard draft. MD. terrific. I like your 3 WRs late and wondered just how that was going to be handled. High, no f"ing way. But i do like the 3 from 132 to 185 or thereabouts. That sounds realistic and would much prefer that to one top rated one high. We got too many holes to fill. re: Qbs, i recently was reminded that when we took kap the others were ponder, lockyer and blaine. Well, we ended up with blaine but not by picking him. I just don't see him as a legit guy to run the O if kap goes down. Too much bad history and he reminds me of how Pastorini got clobbered yrs ago. Question is, do you see us going Qb like Petty. when BPA is going to be DL, OL,, LB, CB/S, and WR? We desperately need a #2 qb, but i just don't see it this draft/. If so we will not be picking BPA, and trent doesn't just do need, unless he wants an AJ repeat, and he still isn't over that one.

Appreciate the hard work.

Originally posted by communist:
thank you.

just one more question:
do you project him to be a 2-gap-NT in the NFL?

I think he has the versatility to play in numerous defensive fronts. He can handle two guys (not as well as Davis or Shelton or Goldman), but also has the ability to get upfield.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Just your standard draft. MD. terrific. I like your 3 WRs late and wondered just how that was going to be handled. High, no f"ing way. But i do like the 3 from 132 to 185 or thereabouts. That sounds realistic and would much prefer that to one top rated one high. We got too many holes to fill. re: Qbs, i recently was reminded that when we took kap the others were ponder, lockyer and blaine. Well, we ended up with blaine but not by picking him. I just don't see him as a legit guy to run the O if kap goes down. Too much bad history and he reminds me of how Pastorini got clobbered yrs ago. Question is, do you see us going Qb like Petty. when BPA is going to be DL, OL,, LB, CB/S, and WR? We desperately need a #2 qb, but i just don't see it this draft/. If so we will not be picking BPA, and trent doesn't just do need, unless he wants an AJ repeat, and he still isn't over that one.

I'd be surprised if we go QB before the 5th round. Just way too many needs to fill.

Originally posted by T-9ers:
Appreciate the hard work.

Thanks. Christmas for draft junkies is coming.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

6. Arik Armstead- I would lay heavy money this is the player the team will select if he is on the clock at 15. Just a really strong hunch. Not my pick, but a big guy with upside.

MD, I see many people mocking us Armstead at 15. I agree with you that I don't like the pick but my main question is are people mocking him to us because of upside and potential or does he a top 20 pick on tape. In other words when you just watch his tape does he come across as a top 20 talent? Or do you have to take into account his age and potential to make yourself believe he can be a top 20 selection?

To me I just don't see top 20 pick with his film. It's mainly based off his potential and athleticism. We know Baalke values film more than anything else which is why I just can't see him taking Armstead at 15

I don't know why people love Armstead sooooooo freaking much.He's inconsistent on tape and is purely size and speed.Bust written all over him

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Butter:

Mad Dog, if the Niners dont draft a CB in round one, but target a CB in round two, who do you like?

According to your board both Darby and PJ Williams look to be available, but both have significant character flags.

It is a mess, isn't it? I expect that top tier of draftable CBs to go quickly (Waynes, Johnson, Rowe, Jones, Peters). There is hope that Jalen Collins may fall to the Niners in the second round with multiple failed drug tests in college, plus less than a year's experience as a starter. Risky gamble, but one that may pay off in the future (because he is NOT ready to play now). As you stated, Darby and Williams carry character red flags. That is why the team may have to draft a CB in the first round, although I don't like the value of any CB with the 15th overall.

If the team is desperate to not leave the first round without one, then I'd advocate a trade down.

Expect some of the smaller school guys who are sleepers to be drafted well before expected. I have Tray Walker at number 176 right now, but I can easily see him closer to 150 on Saturday.

Here are some of my thoughts on the CB's: I think Q. Rollins is a safety and not a corner. In either case, he is not going to play that much in 2015 The same goes for Josh Shaw (I do think he can contribute in 2015), although I have more trust in his ability to play CB in the NFL. If you don't mind some of the sub- 6' CBs, I really like three guys: Steven Nelson is fiesty, plays hard on every down, and never misses a tackle (literally, as compiled in stats this season). Doran Grant played Amari Cooper better than anyone this year, and matched up well with some quality WR's late in 2014. Senquez Golson won the game against Cooper and Alabama with a late INT, and is a really terrific player overall. A winner. The only problem is big bodied WRs can box him out pretty easily (noted against Sammie Coates). Don't trust Charles Gaines- gets roasted a lot (gambles round the clock)

Living in Mississippi, I've watched Golson a lot. I'll be tickled if the 49ers are able to grab him late in the draft.

Originally posted by Luckycharms:
MD, I see many people mocking us Armstead at 15. I agree with you that I don't like the pick but my main question is are people mocking him to us because of upside and potential or does he a top 20 pick on tape. In other words when you just watch his tape does he come across as a top 20 talent? Or do you have to take into account his age and potential to make yourself believe he can be a top 20 selection?

To me I just don't see top 20 pick with his film. It's mainly based off his potential and athleticism. We know Baalke values film more than anything else which is why I just can't see him taking Armstead at 15

Huge guys who are athletic are going to be selected before they should, even if their productivity does not warrant it. He is the Calais Campbell of this draft, and Campbell is one of the better 34 DEs in this draft. I think teams are willing to risk to hit again, if there is a real comparison. I will say this about Armstead: he played well down the stretch, against FSU and OSU. I've got him as my 27th best player, but he will go well before that number.

Originally posted by JDMathews49ers:
Living in Mississippi, I've watched Golson a lot. I'll be tickled if the 49ers are able to grab him late in the draft.

Kid is a winner. Huge heart, dedication to the game. Scraps on every play. If he was two inches taller, he'd be a first or second rounder. Short, with really short arms (sub 30") really hurts him. But, he plays big, and wants to impress. I'd throw him in the slot from Day One and let him chase these rabbits all over the field. There is a place for him in this league, and he will prove the doubters wrong.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by JDMathews49ers:

Living in Mississippi, I've watched Golson a lot. I'll be tickled if the 49ers are able to grab him late in the draft.

Kid is a winner. Huge heart, dedication to the game. Scraps on every play. If he was two inches taller, he'd be a first or second rounder. Short, with really short arms (sub 30") really hurts him. But, he plays big, and wants to impress. I'd throw him in the slot from Day One and let him chase these rabbits all over the field. There is a place for him in this league, and he will prove the doubters wrong.

Agreed, I was thinking that he would best fit in the slot as well.

MD, it is said that most drafts only have about 15 -20 players that GM's give a 1st round grade to. If you have a minute I'd be curious to know which players you give a 1st round grade to.

Originally posted by Luckycharms:
MD, it is said that most drafts only have about 15 -20 players that GM's give a 1st round grade to. If you have a minute I'd be curious to know which players you give a 1st round grade to.

I have 25.
1 Vic Beasley Clemson LB
2 Kevin White West Virginia WR
3 Amari Cooper Alabama WR
4 Todd Gurley Georgia RB
5 Brandon Scherff Iowa G
6 Leonard Williams USC DT
7 Cameron Erving Florida St C
8 Danny Shelton Washington DT
9 DeVante Parker Louisville WR
10 Shane Ray Missouri LB
11 Jaelen Strong Arizona St WR
12 Dante Fowler Florida DE/LB
13 DJ Humphries Florida OT
14 Carl Davis Iowa DT
15 Malcom Brown Texas DT
16 La'El Collins LSU OT/G
17 Marcus Mariota Oregon QB
18 Eddie Goldman Florida St DT
19 Melvin Gordon Wisconsin RB
20 Eli Harold Virginia DE/LB
21 Ereck Flowers Miami OT
22 Trae Waynes Michigan St CB
23 Kevin Johnson Wake Forest CB
24 Ty Lockett Kansas St WR
25 Paul Dawson TCU LB