Comp Pick Predictions - Lost FAs and Retired Players

Hi All,

Following the lost FAs and recently retired players in Willis and Borland, how many comp picks do you think we will receive for the 2015 draft?

http://www.ninersnation.com/2015/3/13/8207781/49ers-free-agent-contracts-nfl-draft-comp-picks-2016

Thanks Texas Niner I hadn't seen that article which is a good resource for our FA losses comp pick projections. However as it doesn't mention anything with our retired players, I'm curious if the Webzone thinks we would get some kind of (comp) pick in 2015 or 2016 for Willis and Borland?

Originally posted by smifunk:
Thanks Texas Niner I hadn't seen that article which is a good resource for our FA losses comp pick projections. However as it doesn't mention anything with our retired players, I'm curious if the Webzone thinks we would get some kind of (comp) pick in 2015 or 2016 for Willis and Borland?

You don't get comp picks for retired players.

Originally posted by TexasNiner:
http://www.ninersnation.com/2015/3/13/8207781/49ers-free-agent-contracts-nfl-draft-comp-picks-2016

This article is outdated. Since then the 49ers have signed Shareece Wright and Erik Pears and will possibly be signing Sterling Moore, all of whom would reduce the comp picks that the 49ers will be receiving.

I am almost positive that retired players have no bearing on the comp picks. I think they might in other sports (hockey or baseball maybe?), but in football it is only free agents. Not players that have been cut, traded or otherwise are available. And it only has to do primarily with what length and dollar amount their new contract is for.

Hence Gore and Skuta are worth approximately the same even though the loss of Gore as a much better player is obviously a much bigger loss for the 49ers. Similarly, even though Crabtree was a highly drafted player and productive at times, if he only signs a one year "prove it" deal, we won't get any compensation. I could have sworn it was reported that the Bills were going to sign him to a 5 year deal worth like $10 mil a year early on in FA. If he can get anything even close to that, or even half the years and/or money, then we will get some compensation.

And though most would say that Iupati is a much better player than Culliver, since the market for CBs is richer than for Gs, their contracts are similar, so they have the same approximate value in terms of comp picks. Either one is basically nullified by signing T. Smith and the other will likely net a 4th rounder.

Originally posted by TexasNiner:
I am almost positive that retired players have no bearing on the comp picks. I think they might in other sports (hockey or baseball maybe?), but in football it is only free agents. Not players that have been cut, traded or otherwise are available. And it only has to do primarily with what length and dollar amount their new contract is for.

Hence Gore and Skuta are worth approximately the same even though the loss of Gore as a much better player is obviously a much bigger loss for the 49ers. Similarly, even though Crabtree was a highly drafted player and productive at times, if he only signs a one year "prove it" deal, we won't get any compensation. I could have sworn it was reported that the Bills were going to sign him to a 5 year deal worth like $10 mil a year early on in FA. If he can get anything even close to that, or even half the years and/or money, then we will get some compensation.

And though most would say that Iupati is a much better player than Culliver, since the market for CBs is richer than for Gs, their contracts are similar, so they have the same approximate value in terms of comp picks. Either one is basically nullified by signing T. Smith and the other will likely net a 4th rounder.

Iupati would have likely garnered a 3rd rounder had the 49ers not signed Smith. I do agree that Culliver will likely result in a 4th round pick which is not a bad consolation prize for a guy that was a 3rd rounder just a few years ago. Cox got overpaid IMO and if the 49ers get Moore for less than what Cox got, its a steal all the way. Similar type of player.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by TexasNiner:
http://www.ninersnation.com/2015/3/13/8207781/49ers-free-agent-contracts-nfl-draft-comp-picks-2016

This article is outdated. Since then the 49ers have signed Shareece Wright and Erik Pears and will possibly be signing Sterling Moore, all of whom would reduce the comp picks that the 49ers will be receiving.

Wright definitely won't because it's a one year deal. And I doubt Pears will either because it's a short, cheap deal and our other low end UFA losses will likely cancel it out. I'd be surprised if the Moore deal doesn't fall into that category as well assuming we sign him.

It's always hard to predict though, because if certain escalators are met (or not) players are re-evaluated after the season and some could surprise if they have the right bonuses built into their contracts. But generally the short/cheap deals either inherently don't count for comp purposes or they cancel each other out because each team has to fill so many roster spots.

Originally posted by TexasNiner:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by TexasNiner:

http://www.ninersnation.com/2015/3/13/8207781/49ers-free-agent-contracts-nfl-draft-comp-picks-2016

This article is outdated. Since then the 49ers have signed Shareece Wright and Erik Pears and will possibly be signing Sterling Moore, all of whom would reduce the comp picks that the 49ers will be receiving.

Wright definitely won't because it's a one year deal. And I doubt Pears will either because it's a short, cheap deal and our other low end UFA losses will likely cancel it out. I'd be surprised if the Moore deal doesn't fall into that category as well assuming we sign him.

It's always hard to predict though, because if certain escalators are met (or not) players are re-evaluated after the season and some could surprise if they have the right bonuses built into their contracts. But generally the short/cheap deals either inherently don't count for comp purposes or they cancel each other out because each team has to fill so many roster spots.

If Crabtree signs anywhere, I bet that would cancel the Pears signing. Wright and Moore would most likely be 1 year, small cap figure deals.

Iupati cancels T. Smith

Crabtree will most likely cancel out Pears and maybe flow into Wright/Moore.

Culliver, SKuta, and Cox received more significant contracts. I'd imagine a 3rd and two 4ths as compensation.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by TexasNiner:
http://www.ninersnation.com/2015/3/13/8207781/49ers-free-agent-contracts-nfl-draft-comp-picks-2016

This article is outdated. Since then the 49ers have signed Shareece Wright and Erik Pears and will possibly be signing Sterling Moore, all of whom would reduce the comp picks that the 49ers will be receiving.

Moore wont count according to Maiocco.. Said not tendering a player is like cutting.

Just an FYI... Players cut by their previous teams and are signed by the 49ers do not effect what compensated draft picks they will be awarded. That includes Dockett and some others mentioned as well.

Players that retire or get cut don't count in the comp pick fomula which is based on the following years draft and not the upcoming draft. Also, playing time and salary counts if I recall, as may the player making probowl-correct me if I am wrong.

Originally posted by WildBill:
Players that retire or get cut don't count in the comp pick fomula which is based on the following years draft and not the upcoming draft. Also, playing time and salary counts if I recall, as may the player making probowl-correct me if I am wrong.

No one knows for sure. But the best understood guess (as I'm aware), is that it starts as a pure numbers games. True UFA signed vs lost. Other losses/gains with players retiring, getting cut, traded, injured or otherwise gained or lost don't count. Also, "one and done" players don't seem to count as a loss or gain. Unless it's a major contract. There are exceptions to everything.

Then the net loss number (say 3 players) is compared to the player evaluation based on (apparently, no one really knows) the length and dollars of their new contract and possibly other factors like years/probowls/etc.. But generally the bigger/longer the contract signed, the higher the draft pick compensation. Or at least there seems to be a pretty strong correlation between the two.

They can give out up to 32 comp picks per year. If less than 32 have been given out once all the teams with a net loss in FA have been awarded picks, teams with zero net gain but an evaluation of a net loss of talent can then be awarded picks if the talent loss is deemed significant based on this secret formula.