Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Originally posted by Rascal:
Originally posted by LieutKaffee:
Some of the analysis and speculation in this thread confuses me. The question is who would the 49ers have taken if they had stayed at #34. There are only six possible answers: Justin Hunter, Zach Ertz, Darius Slay, Giovani Bernard, Manti Te'o, Geno Smith, Tank Carradine. If Tank was their overnight favorite, their risk paid off and they got their guy. If it was one of the others, that means Tank was the backup plan.
We can cross off Bernard, Te'o, and Smith for pretty obvious reasons. I've long maintained the 49ers had zero-zip-nada interest in Ertz amid all the fanboying on the Zone, but that's only my personal gut feeling. Slay would make the most sense here (so I agree with the OP that it was Slay if it wasn't Carradine), but I think it's far more likely Carradine was in fact the target the whole time. Getting a 3rd in that trade was enormous. I think Baalke was willing to take the risk of losing Tank because (a) he's creaming his pants about all the high picks we have in 2014, and (b) he's smarter and better at mock drafts than we are, and was probably almost positive Tank would not get stolen.
As for when we had CBs targeted based on Harbaugh's comment? I think the possibilities are nearly endless who he may have been referring to. I think the OP is incorrect to rule out the third round simply because we traded up for Lemonier. When the 3rd round began it's entirely possible the 49ers had Mathieu, Wreh-Wilson, McFadden, and/or Logan Ryan ranked ahead of Lemonier on their board. They may have traded up for Lemonier because he was the last player they had left with a 3rd round grade and didn't want to miss out.
BW Webb was the only CB drafted in the 4th round, and a lot of Zoners thought he would be a good fit. It's certainly possible the 49ers' board went 1. Webb, 2. Patton, 3. Lattimore as the round was progressing and they were left with options 2 and 3. Finally, Terry Hawthorne had previously been linked to the 49ers and he went just a few spots before we took Dial. And Dial in the 5th had a bit of a "reach" feel to it. I think it's possible or even likely they preferred Hawthorne in that spot.
If Tank was the target all along, then he certainly wasn't a "must get" target. That is evident in what they did in order to get Reid. While 18th was probably too high, they just weren't willing to take a chance, if they were they would have waited till 31st. In all likehood, Hunter, Ertz and Slay just weren't on 49ers' board although their value were definitely there as proven by being picked at 34th, 35th and 36th respectively. But, like you said they were willing to take a chnace.
But, more likely it was probably a combination of both including losing a target from 19th to 33rd when they expected the guy to be available at 34th.That could have been absolutely anyone on that list. If it was a CB it could have been Trufant or Rhodes. There were 3 DL there too, but I guess we will never know. Is just hard to imagine the 9ers didn't want anyone all the way from 19th until Tank at 40th.
I think we're talking about two different things. I just realized some in this thread are using the word "target" in direct reference to Baalke's "absolutely we know" comment (which was made after the 1st round concluded), and some are using it in a broader sense of what player the 49ers went into the draft hoping to take at #34 (or something slightly less broad, such as what player the 49ers were hoping would make it to #34 as the draft was progressing into the 20s, etc.).
Of course Tank wasn't the "target all along." It's not like Reid and Tank were the literal #1 and #2 on their internal draft board.
When I made my post about Tank being the target, I meant in reference to Baalke's comment. Tank was the "target" on day 2 in that he was the player they were prepared to draft at #34, and the player they were most hoping to draft at #40. And if it wasn't Tank, then by definition it was one of those other five names. The OP offered interesting speculation that may have been Slay because of Harbaugh's comment about missing out on CBs they had targeted.
But given Tank's superior overall talent and the given the 49ers' demonstrated willingness to take injury risks in this draft, and given that DL was a more immediate need, all signs point to Tank being higher on the 49ers' board than Slay. Which would mean the CB comment refers to someone other than Slay.
First of all, LieutKaffee, you've given the most thoughtful analysis I've seen on this thread.
But something neither you nor anyone else has mentioned is the possibility that Carradine AND McDonald were players in the pool of possibilities at 34, rather than just the 5 players actually taken ahead of Carradine at 40. Perhaps knowing there were a couple of players they were interested in still on the board made the offer of a 3rd next year "too good to refuse". And with DL being the bigger need, they went with Carradine. Then, having decided on Carradine at 40, the Niners were surprised to see McDonald still available close enough to the end of the round to throw away their idea of drafting a corner at 61 and instead trading up for McDonald. It's at least as plausible as anything else I've read, and it doesn't contradict any of the known statements of JH or TB.
I know many people on this board will say "no, it had to be Ertz", but the Niners said McDonald was at the top of the board at TE, and many other scouts have agreed that McDonald was no worse than the 2nd best TE in the draft, and at least one other team (I'm sorry I forget which one) said they planned to take him with their next pick after SF's. That would mean Caradine was their likely target at 34 had they kept the pick and perhaps 61 was where they planned to go CB (Mathieu?)