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2014 Draft Picks

  • KID9R
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  • Posts: 1,971
Well they're probably going to be talking about the niners having crap load of picks again next draft. Baalke is killing it. I figure we should at three compensatory picks again next year with the losses of:
Goldson 5 year 41.25 mil. Should be worth at least a 4th maybe a 3rd. Point of reference is C. Finneran and B. Carr who both got they're old teams 3rd's for signing 5year 50 mil deals. But Eric Wright got the Lions a 4th for signing a 5 year 37.5 mil deal. But if Goldson makes the ProBowl or is all pro, we'll get a 3rd I think.

Walker and RJF both signed 4 year close to 20 mil deals. Those could net us a couple of 5ths. We also lost Sop and Ginn but those would probably be off set by Dorsey and Dahl. But we also signed Dawson, Skuta 2 year 3 mil and Marlon Moore 1 year 630000 and might get cut anyway.

So I think are picks could be:
1st
2nd
3rd
3rd titans
3rd KC ( could be a 2nd)
3rd Goldson (hopefully)
4th
4th RJF
5th
5th Walker
6th
7th Panthers (Colin jones)
7th

For a grand total of 13......again
[ Edited by KID9R on Apr 27, 2013 at 11:10 PM ]
Goldson is certain to be a 3rd round comp. You may need to downgrade the other two comps.
It's a good thing too, I have a feeling that they may need to load up on CB's next year.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Goldson is certain to be a 3rd round comp. You may need to downgrade the other two comps.

I agree, maybe 6th rounders at best
Originally posted by niners9:
I agree, maybe 6th rounders at best

Maybe 5ths
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
It's a good thing too, I have a feeling that they may need to load up on CB's next year.

Agree. Baalke doing a great job!
  • krizay
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  • Posts: 14,925
Originally posted by niners9:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Goldson is certain to be a 3rd round comp. You may need to downgrade the other two comps.

I agree, maybe 6th rounders at best

With RJF at 5 million per and Delanie over 4m per. The OP have them pretty much in their exact spots comp wise
  • KID9R
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  • Posts: 1,971
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by niners9:
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Goldson is certain to be a 3rd round comp. You may need to downgrade the other two comps.

I agree, maybe 6th rounders at best

With RJF at 5 million per and Delanie over 4m per. The OP have them pretty much in their exact spots comp wise

My point of reference was from this site http://www.baltimorebeatdown.com/2013/3/19/4121568/ravens-get-four-compensatory-picks

And then looked up they're contracts on rotoworld, but it was late and it's a guessing game anyway without knowing how they'll perform and not knowing the exact formula.
I've posted this many times, but this is the way comp selections work.

1) Total # of FAs lost - total # of FAs signed determines the # of comp picks. (you can see this for yourself with the FAs signed and lost and comp picks this year)

2) Contract size and PT determine round of the comp pick by matching out FAs signed to FAs lost.

3) Sometimes even if you have the same or more FAs signed as lost but what you lost was of significantly higher value, you still get a comp at the end of the 7th round.


We signed more FAs than we lost. At most we're getting 1 comp pick at the end of the 7th.


EDIT: I know people will refuse to believe me on this, but see 2013:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0ap1000000151670/article/nfl-awards-32-compensatory-draft-picks-to-16-teams

FalconsLost: 4Gained: 0Comp Picks: 4Ravens:Lost: 6Gained: 2Comp Picks: 4Bengals:Lost: 5Gained: 3Comp Picks: 2Lions:Lost: 2Gained: 0Comp Picks: 2Packers:Lost: 2Gained: 1Comp Picks: 1Texans:Lost: 4Gained: 2Comp Picks: 2Colts (see above, gained as many as they lost, but the lost was assigned at higher value than the gained by the formula, so they get 1 pick at the end of the 7th)Chiefs:Lost: 4Gained: 2Comp Picks: 2Dolphins:Lost: 4Gained: 2Comp Picks: 2Giants: (same as Colts above, equal number of lost gained, but loss was higher value due to formula, so they get one comp at the end of the 7th)Raiders: Lost: 4Gained: 3Comp Picks: 1 Eagles:Lost: 2Gained: 1Comp Picks: 1Steelers:Lost: 1Gained: 0Comp Picks: 1 9ers:Lost: 3Gained: 1Comp Picks: 2 + 1 at the end of the 7th for having lost better value than they gained according to the formula(if Manningham had played all year they wouldn't have gotten the bonus end of the 7th pick). Seahawks: Lost: 4Gained: 2Comp Picks: 2Titans:Lost: 3Gained: 0Comp Picks: 3
[ Edited by PopeyeJonesing on Apr 28, 2013 at 7:27 AM ]
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
It's a good thing too, I have a feeling that they may need to load up on CB's next year.

Yeah, only CB under contract after this year are Rogers and Culliver and Rogers could get cut after this season to save money on the cap. Brown, Nnamdi, Cox, Brock, are all FA's.

Also, WR could be a big need. Manningham, Williams, Boldin are all FA's. Leaves us with Crabtree, Patton, Jenkins and possibly Lockette if he can go the year on the PS without getting stolen.

Could need a SS as well since Whitner will likely be gone. So we will need a bunch of high picks to replace those we lost and to build the depth back up.

Also, to the OP I think we get a 3rd for Goldson but our other lost FA's probably get cancelled out by the guys we signed.
[ Edited by Gore_21 on Apr 28, 2013 at 7:30 AM ]
  • krizay
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  • Posts: 14,925
Originally posted by KID9R:
My point of reference was from this site http://www.baltimorebeatdown.com/2013/3/19/4121568/ravens-get-four-compensatory-picks

And then looked up they're contracts on rotoworld, but it was late and it's a guessing game anyway without knowing how they'll perform and not knowing the exact formula.

Well I use to know the exact formula (well not really but studied a guys detailed conception of what he perceieved to be the formula and was right every year when i preicted the 9ers) but the PC all that stuff was on has long since been gone and i never really got back into to doing it


EDIT** still know basic concept. only thing I'm behind on are the salary cap cut off's per round. To which he had the basic guidlines
[ Edited by krizay on Apr 28, 2013 at 7:42 AM ]
  • krizay
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 14,925
Originally posted by krizay:
Well I use to know the exact formula (well not really but studied a guys detailed conception of what he perceieved to be the formula and was right every year when i preicted the 9ers) but the PC all that stuff was on has long since been gone and i never really got back into to doing it


EDIT** still know basic concept. only thing I'm behind on are the salary cap cut off's per round. To which he had the basic guidlines

Well I was smart enough to save on jump drive apparently



here's a little background from the guy(website) i use to use to correctly predict the 9ers.


For the eighth consecutive year and ninth overall, I've attempted to project all of the compensatory draft picks that the NFL will award. In my past seven projections, I've averaged 23.9 out of 32 exactly correct (going to the correct team in the correct round) and have been off by only one round on an average of 4.1 more. Last year, I got 25 correct and was off by one round on four more. With this year's projections, I'm hoping to get a combined score of at least 30, although it's possible that more than the usual number of them could be off by one round because so many projected compensatory picks fell near the cutoff points between rounds




Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1994, I've determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors. It should be noted that the contract values used in the equation seemingly do not include things such as workout bonuses, incentives and conditional bonuses. (Also, keep in mind that the contract figures reported in the media often are incorrect.) And the playing time used in the equation seemingly is the percentage of offensive or defensive snaps played.


This is just a portion from ALOT of what he had to write.



Keep in mind, last year in this paragragh is 2009. As I stated earlier the salary guidelines per each round goes up the same percentage as the nfl salary cap goes up. So this thing is 4 years behind.


Last year, regardless of playing time or postseason honors, the third-round comp players had signed for at least $6.25 million per season, the fourth-round comp players had signed for $4.67 million to $5.225 million, the only fifth-round comp player had signed for $4.5 million, the sixth-round comp players had signed for $2.25 million to $3.75 million, and the seventh-round comp players had signed for $2.5 million or less per season. Note that there are huge gaps between some rounds, and that there is an overlap between the sixth and seventh rounds because of the adjustments for playing time. You'll find the contract values for each round of this year's projected picks in the list a few paragraphs below this one.



Also found my buddy!
[ Edited by krizay on Apr 28, 2013 at 8:02 AM ]
  • buck
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  • Posts: 10,055
I would count our picks in 2014 thus:

1st
2nd
2nd/3rd KC
3rd titans
4th
5th
6th
7th Panthers (Colin jones)
7th

That gives us ten picks.

I would not count compensatory picks until they have been alloted.
Originally posted by buck:
I would count our picks in 2014 thus:

1st
2nd
2nd/3rd KC
3rd titans
4th
5th
6th
7th Panthers (Colin jones)
7th

That gives us ten picks.

I would not count compensatory picks until they have been alloted.

Lost track...did the niners trade their own third?