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Auction off pick 34 to the highest bidder

There has been a lot of discussion about trading #31. I just don't see Baalke doing it. If anything, he may trade up a bit from 31. When he targets someone he likes in the first, he usually reaches a bit. He certainly will not risk losing them.

However, offering up the #34 makes way more sense, at least to me. They'll have all night to negotiate trades. There is a good chance that a player other teams are targeting in the 1st may have fallen. There is a good chance the Niners can get top value for #34.

Even if they just move down in the 2nd a bit, they could get more ammunition that can be used to move up from later picks. The player that they draft at 40+ will likely not be that much worse. However, if the extra ammo can be used to move up from 61 or 93, they have a net gain.
good idea, alot of teams will be fighting for those round 2 Qb's like Nassib, Manuel, and Barkley. If we could get an extra 3rd to latter have the ammo to trade up for 3 2nd rounders
  • krizay
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 14,924
Originally posted by Butter:
There has been a lot of discussion about trading #31. I just don't see Baalke doing it. If anything, he may trade up a bit from 31. When he targets someone he likes in the first, he usually reaches a bit. He certainly will not risk losing them.

However, offering up the #34 makes way more sense, at least to me. They'll have all night to negotiate trades. There is a good chance that a player other teams are targeting in the 1st may have fallen. There is a good chance the Niners can get top value for #34.

Even if they just move down in the 2nd a bit, they could get more ammunition that can be used to move up from later picks. The player that they draft at 40+ will likely not be that much worse. However, if the extra ammo can be used to move up from 61 or 93, they have a net gain.

Well, I see what you are saying. But IMO we will be able to get more for the #31 pick. A team wanting a QB and gaining that extra year on the deal as opposed to the #34 pick. While I agree that there will be a player left over that multiple teams will want. But all that extra time could also hurt cause it gives teams extra time to think over ALL options. Where as at #31 they only have 10 minutes to make a decision. Thus even more likely to over spend.

I could see us getting a 2014 first for the #34 pick. but depending on team is it worth moving up say 12 spots and waiting a year?

Where IMO we could get a 2nd this year and next year (ATLEAST) by moving down say 12 spots this year. pick 42 this year and a 2nd next year > than say a pick 20ish or later pick next year. Now yes there is a possibility that the pick could be a top 10 pick next year. But at 42 we KNOW we can get a 1st round talent (likely even one of the guys we wanted at 31) while still gaining a pick in '14.

But if one of those teams wait for a QB, I can see them wanting to move up to gain that extra year and I can see us trading back. Wouldnt be surprised to get more than just 2 2nd's.

We certainly have alot of options this year and I love it.
Good post.

It's like a great poker game. We're holding a VERY good hand. As the draft progresses and some players unexpectedly fall the pot gets bigger.

When it comes to #31 it will be incredible to watch Baalke in action.

I don't think we keep both. I feel we'll trade one of them and since I'm guessing it will be #31.
In keeping habit with previous years, I think he'll likely trade one of the higher round picks for a better one next year, maybe the lower 2nd rounder or high 3rd.
Originally posted by krizay:
Well, I see what you are saying. But IMO we will be able to get more for the #31 pick. A team wanting a QB and gaining that extra year on the deal as opposed to the #34 pick. While I agree that there will be a player left over that multiple teams will want. But all that extra time could also hurt cause it gives teams extra time to think over ALL options. Where as at #31 they only have 10 minutes to make a decision. Thus even more likely to over spend.

I could see us getting a 2014 first for the #34 pick. but depending on team is it worth moving up say 12 spots and waiting a year?

Where IMO we could get a 2nd this year and next year (ATLEAST) by moving down say 12 spots this year. pick 42 this year and a 2nd next year > than say a pick 20ish or later pick next year. Now yes there is a possibility that the pick could be a top 10 pick next year. But at 42 we KNOW we can get a 1st round talent (likely even one of the guys we wanted at 31) while still gaining a pick in '14.

But if one of those teams wait for a QB, I can see them wanting to move up to gain that extra year and I can see us trading back. Wouldnt be surprised to get more than just 2 2nd's.

We certainly have alot of options this year and I love it.
Exactly!!! Id like to trade with a team with a top 5 pick in the 2nd, who would want to leap frog other teams wanting a QB. EJ Manuel and Ryan Nassib are the 2 QB's teams will have their eyes on if they didn't get picked in the top 20.

We can draft a really good DE or S at 34
--fingers crossed for Eric Reid, Johnathan Cyprien, Matt Elam at FS/S
--Tank Carradine, Margus Hunt, Datone Jones, Jesse Williams, Kawann Short

and then get at least a 2nd and 3rd in 2013 and a 2nd in 2014 but we can alway hope for a 1st in 2014 too
Originally posted by KowboyKiller:
In keeping habit with previous years, I think he'll likely trade one of the higher round picks for a better one next year, maybe the lower 2nd rounder or high 3rd.

I think this is pretty likely. Moving the 61st for a higher pick seems pretty plausible.
Forgetting two important reasons the #31 pick is considerably more valuable to a QB-needy team than the #34 pick.

1. The Jaguars are sitting at #33.
2. Teams get a 5th year option on 1st rounder contracts. Obviously we drafted CK in the 2nd and that's fine, but if a team had a choice between two picks as close together as #31 and #34, they would much rather have that extra year of control over their franchise QB.

To the 49ers, the #31 and #34 picks are almost identical. I don't see the Jaguars with overlapping needs. The Ravens seem to need the opposite kind of safety as us (they have Huff in place and we have Whitner in place), or they might take a WR or ILB. If we value the picks roughly the same, and our potential trade partners see considerably more value in #31, then trading #31 should bring us the greatest return.
I think that's a great idea. I'd love it if we got one of the perennial losing teams to get desperate and trade us a future 1st.

In 2009, we traded our 2nd (43rd overall) to Carolina for their 2010 1st rounder. That 1st rounder ended up being 17th overall, and we took Mike Iupati. Carolina got stuck with Everette Brown, whom they coveted.
[ Edited by SofaKing on Apr 20, 2013 at 3:33 PM ]
We need to get a 1st rounder next year. I know it can change but I was looking into next year's prospects and there seem to be like 5 quarterbacks that could be drafted in the 1st. That would move alot of talent down to our spot!

Besides, rooting against teams when you have their 1st round pick is like having two favorite teams to watch on Sunday. Only one of them you hope they lose every game!
Oh and also, the Jags pick right in front of us in the 2nd, so QB needy teams won't be able to use our pick to jump in front of them since they might just take that QB instead
I am hoping for Cyprien or Jones at 31, if not then trade back, pick up an extra pick in 2014. Then trade 34 for a 1st in 2014.
If we could get a first next year and a 4th/5th this year I would do it in a heart beat!
Originally posted by 49er4life:
If we could get a first next year and a 4th/5th this year I would do it in a heart beat!


You've got to do better than that.

#34 is tantamount to a late first round pick (only one spot away; although I agree that the ability to tie up a draftee for an additional year is worth a lot). 4th/5th round picks are essentially throw away picks. The chances of hitting big on a player are greatly dimished at that spot. So trading a very high pick this year for a very high pick next year, plus a throw away this year is not too smart IMO. I'd want a pick in the top 100 this year together with next year's first at a minimum to do the deal.
By the end of the first round teams looking for Quarterbacks will be desperate. I don't think there will be a run on QBs in the first, the second is another matter. It would be great to get a first rounder from next years' draft. IMO if the 49ers don't trade up they trade back. This draft could put Baalke into the elite status of General Managers.