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Lack of Need and the Chances of Us Finding an Impact Player?

Now, I think we'll obviously have plenty of opportunities to grab impact quality players, but what I question is the opportunity for those guys to play major roles. Let's take a look at the current state of the roster...

The way I see it, we have 45 guys currently who could be expected to make the 53-man roster. As you know, only 46 are active on game days. If we add a couple more FAs (let's say Woodson and Nnamdi), we'll have 47.

Looking at this roster and assuming the additions of Woodson and Nnamdi, I don't see how any rookie could provide anything more than depth, and it's going to be difficult if not impossible for a lot of them to even be active for games. With a few exceptions, it's difficult to envision who's getting displaced by rookies. We have a ton of talent across the board.

Needs in order of priority...

1. A backup TE... There is a big hole behind Vernon with the loss of Delanie Walker.
2. DL depth... Dobbs, Tukuafu, and Williams are not impact guys. We need impact rotational DLs who could start in the event of injury.
3. FS depth... Assuming we add Nnamdi, we have 5-6 CBs capable of contributing, but we could certainly use a FS to upgrade depth.
4. WR depth... We currently have 5 WRs who are likely to dress for games, but Manningham may not be ready for week one.
5.OLB depth... This becomes a bigger priority if Haralson gets cut. I don't trust Fleming and Johnson to provide much of anything if Aldon or Brooks goes down.
6. K... Obviously, we don't have one right now.
7. QB depth... Need one more guy assuming we don't bring in Josh Johnson.
8. OL depth... Replacement for Leonard Davis. Need a guy who could fill in at tackle.
9. ILB depth... We need another special teams contributor here.

QB: Kaepernick, Tolzien
RB: Gore, Hunter, James, Dixon
FB: Miller
TE: V. Davis, Celek
WR: Crabtree, Boldin, Manningham, Jenkins, Williams
LT: Staley
LG: Iupati, Looney
C: Goodiwn, Kilgore
RG: Boone
RT: A. Davis

DE: J. Smith, D. Dobbs
NT: G. Dorsey, I. Williams
DE: R. McDonald, W. Tukuafu
OLB: A. Smith, P. Haralson, D. Fleming
ILB: P. Willis, D. Skuta
ILB: N. Bowman
OLB: A. Brooks, C. Johnson
CB: T. Brown, Asomugha?, P. Cox, T. Brock
CB: C. Rogers, C. Culliver
FS: Woodson?, T. Robinson
SS: D. Whitner, Spillman

K:
P: Lee
LS: Jennings
[ Edited by JamesGatz83 on Mar 16, 2013 at 8:24 AM ]
Are u just thinking out loud. Not sure if there is a point or question here
Originally posted by TalkinBoutWILLIS:
Are u just thinking out loud. Not sure if there is a point or question here

Thinking out loud I guess. Realized today exactly how difficult it's going to be for rookies to make meaningful contributions. It's going to be very interesting to see what we do with 14 picks.
I think you can players of impact but you have to draft a player that directly contributes to a deficiency within the team. For example we're 23rd in passing yards, 18th in RZ eff, 19th in 3rd down eff so I would want to draft a player that would contribute towards bringing those stats up. We need a TE so I would look for a large TE that can run good routes and had production in college like Ertz or Eifert. Being more efficient on 3rd downs and in the RZ also benefits the defense as well. Two other areas we had problems with were deep coverages, dline rotation, and pass rush. I think maintaining a pass rush and dline rotation go hand in hand. There's two ways to go about this. One is drafting an OLB that can add additional pass rushing like Alex Okafor and Demontre moore. Another would be adding a 4-3 DE ike Tank Carradine(275) or Margus hunt(277) that would have to be developed into a 3-4 DE but could start rushing the edge in the 4-2 in place of an OLB. This would provide future 3-4 DE depth and OLB depth from day one. You could also draft someone like Datone Jones and hope he provides the additional pass rush. I think Baalke will try to draft players that can contribute from day one so it will be interesting to see who they go with.
If we get 7-8 quality players then they will increase the competition and improve the talent of the team. If we get fits for our open slots, backup TE, kicker, DL, Backup QB, FS, SS, OLB then as a team we will be better than before the draft.
I think you are basing this thread on a false assumption. The Niners defensive starters usually played 90% plus of the snaps last year, and they ended up breaking down at the end of last year. The new d lineman, OLB/pass rusher, and secondary players they add are going to have to play more to keep our veterans fresh.

On offense, the needs aren't as pronounced except at TE. Delanie Walker did a lot on offense as a blocker and a receiver. Whomever the Niners draft will be expected to make a contribution very soon.
Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
I think you are basing this thread on a false assumption. The Niners defensive starters usually played 90% plus of the snaps last year, and they ended up breaking down at the end of last year. The new d lineman, OLB/pass rusher, and secondary players they add are going to have to play more to keep our veterans fresh.

On offense, the needs aren't as pronounced except at TE. Delanie Walker did a lot on offense as a blocker and a receiver. Whomever the Niners draft will be expected to make a contribution very soon.

I agree with this but I understand what the OP is saying. I think we draft DL help for rotational purposes and probably a starting NT early as well as DB help specifically a FS. Later on obviously a K, somewhere in between a TE and all those guys will play. We need a backup tackle now not a L.Davis replacement, we have Kilgore and Looney and those guys will be the backup C/G on the team we need a T and hopefully that guy won't play with Staley/A.Davis healthy. Backup QB etc. Depth makes a team better especially in football.
Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
I think you are basing this thread on a false assumption. The Niners defensive starters usually played 90% plus of the snaps last year, and they ended up breaking down at the end of last year. The new d lineman, OLB/pass rusher, and secondary players they add are going to have to play more to keep our veterans fresh.

On offense, the needs aren't as pronounced except at TE. Delanie Walker did a lot on offense as a blocker and a receiver. Whomever the Niners draft will be expected to make a contribution very soon.

I guess I shouldn't have said "impact", because I do believe we'll find contributors. It just blows my mind that we're in a position now where we only have room for rotational players. We've come a long way in two years.
Originally posted by eonblue:
I think you can players of impact but you have to draft a player that directly contributes to a deficiency within the team. For example we're 23rd in passing yards, 18th in RZ eff, 19th in 3rd down eff so I would want to draft a player that would contribute towards bringing those stats up. We need a TE so I would look for a large TE that can run good routes and had production in college like Ertz or Eifert. Being more efficient on 3rd downs and in the RZ also benefits the defense as well. Two other areas we had problems with were deep coverages, dline rotation, and pass rush. I think maintaining a pass rush and dline rotation go hand in hand. There's two ways to go about this. One is drafting an OLB that can add additional pass rushing like Alex Okafor and Demontre moore. Another would be adding a 4-3 DE ike Tank Carradine(275) or Margus hunt(277) that would have to be developed into a 3-4 DE but could start rushing the edge in the 4-2 in place of an OLB. This would provide future 3-4 DE depth and OLB depth from day one. You could also draft someone like Datone Jones and hope he provides the additional pass rush. I think Baalke will try to draft players that can contribute from day one so it will be interesting to see who they go with.

While I agree with everything you said after the fact, the use of those stats is a little misleading. The nature of our offense changed significantly after Kap took over.

Damontre Moore is falling fast, and if he falls all the way to #31, he'd be a big addition. Impossible to overstate the importance of pass rush and pass rush depth.
Originally posted by JamesGatz83:
The way I see it, we have 45 guys currently who could be expected to make the 53-man roster.

I think you're making huge assumptions about some guys that can't or won't be beaten out by rookies.

Tier 1: People who aren't even on the team

Nnamdi
Woodson

Tier 2: 5th Round, 6th Round, 7th Round and Undrafted Players who have never really done anything for us:

Trenton Robinson
Tramaine Brock
Cam Johnson
Darius Fleming
Will Tukuafu
Daniel Kilgore
Brent Celek

Tier 3: a 4th round pick who hasn't played yet, and later picks who have contributed depth


Joe Looney
Demarcus Dobbs
Anthony Dixon

Tier 4: Players who still might not make the team, depending on the draft, salary, and the play of other players

Parys Haralson
Kyle Williams
Perrish Cox

So, you see 45 guys expected to make the 53 man roster leaving 1 active spots and 8 total spots. Let's instantly eliminate the people who aren't even on the team, meaning 3 active spots and 10 total spots.

So, even if we only dip into to Tier 2 we'd have 10 active spots and 20 total spots that could possibly be filled by rookies with upside. That's more draft picks than we have.

In total I think only 30 of the 45 guys you think are locks to make the team are ACTUALLY locks to make the team.
[ Edited by PopeyeJonesing on Mar 17, 2013 at 8:59 AM ]
  • LVJay
  • Veteran
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IF Nnamdi/Charles jumped on board, somebody else will get their walking papers. They'll be highly motivated and I think HarBaalke get can (at least) another good year from either one or both. Then we won't be (as) desperate for DBs on draft day.

I really would've liked Sammie Lee Hill added to the D-Line, but Titans over paid him... I think he would've been a better replacement for Soap than Ian (just my opinion). But, with his addition and with Dorsey signed, we wouldn't have been desperate come draft day for that position.

Niners seriously need J. Smith's back up/future replacement from this draft.
But, I wouldn't mind if we got this beast early http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1888753

I'm all for D-Line and DBs in the first 4 picks, but if we can get vets to adequately fill up holes on the defense, then maybe the draft could go BPA or whatever HarBaalke sees fit. I just grew an infatuation for this guy's skills -- http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/171983-deandre-hopkins-ridiculous-hands/.
[ Edited by LVJay on Mar 17, 2013 at 11:34 AM ]