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Matt Miller's latest ESPN mock draft

  • buck
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Originally posted by JustinNiner:
yea but you also gotta point out that he played worst teams. i like brandon williams alot but you still have to account for the weak opponents he played. Its tricky picking small school standouts. But you cannot deny those numbers are big production!!!!!

I agree. It is difficult to measure how a D2 player compares to a D1 player.

First, start with the fact that Brandon Williams excelled in his college career. He was D2 player of the year in 2012.
He is one of very few players in D2 history that was a three time All American.

Second in direct competition with the big boys, he has held his own. At the combine, he showed that his physical attributes were at least equal to the physical attributes of the big boys. After a so-so first day of the Senior Bowl week, he showed that his base football skills were on a par with the skills of the other defensive tackles at the Senior Bowl.

Third, try to imagine the work and dedication required for him to accomplish what he has.
One of the major differences between a good player and a great player is what is between the ears and what is protected by the rib cage.

Mental toughness and heart are quite frequently the keys to excellence.

He has come from next to nowhere to being considered one of the top 100 players in college football.

My guess is that he would not have been able to do that without requisite physical traits, the skill set, and intangibles.

We will see.
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by JustinNiner:
yea but you also gotta point out that he played worst teams. i like brandon williams alot but you still have to account for the weak opponents he played. Its tricky picking small school standouts. But you cannot deny those numbers are big production!!!!!

I agree. It is difficult to measure how a D2 player compares to a D1 player.

First, start with the fact that Brandon Williams excelled in his college career. He was D2 player of the year in 2012.
He is one of very few players in D2 history that was a three time All American.

Second in direct competition with the big boys, he has held his own. At the combine, he showed that his physical attributes were at least equal to the physical attributes of the big boys. After a so-so first day of the Senior Bowl week, he showed that his base football skills were on a par with the skills of the other defensive tackles at the Senior Bowl.

Third, try to imagine the work and dedication required for him to accomplish what he has.
One of the major differences between a good player and a great player is what is between the ears and what is protected by the rib cage.

Mental toughness and heart are quite frequently the keys to excellence.

He has come from next to nowhere to being considered one of the top 100 players in college football.

My guess is that he would not have been able to do that without requisite physical traits, the skill set, and intangibles.

We will see.

very good points! he will definitely be a productive player but the question will be how productive and where to take him. I would take a chance on him with our second 2nd round pick
My indictment was not of B Williams but the analysts mock. I guranteed the FO would not pick Jesse Williams or Brandon Williams but to clarify my point I don't think the office would spend valuable early picks on a position that spends minimal time on the field unless thw player is dynamic. In this case a NT that can rush the passer. You raised a good point by addressing Brandons statistics which reflect his ability to create pressure but the stats lose value because he couldn't replicate that pressure against stronger competition. I only called the players he faced at senior bowl novice because in comparison to the players he will face in the NFL they're all novices. If had problems against the amateurs I doubt he will suddenly.start penetrating the pocket against professionals in the NFL. I'm not saying he's a terrible player and I would be excited to have him in the team and learning from Tomsula and Justin Smith. I just think your devaluing an early pick by picking a player that from all indications will only be able to contribute 30% of the time. A nickle corner, safety, or wr would have the opportunity to produce more and therefore in my eyes seem like better choices. Even Jenkins and Hankins would be better candidates because they have a more dynamic skillset. Anyways if something in my response isnt satisfying then feel free not respond. I wont quote you. Im pretty sure you qouted me first so I was just explaining myself but I my point shoukd be pretty apparent.

I would pick williams with the Caro 3rd.
[ Edited by eonblue on Mar 9, 2013 at 10:55 PM ]
  • buck
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  • Posts: 9,889
Originally posted by eonblue:
My indictment was not of B Williams but the analysts mock. I guranteed the FO would not pick Jesse Williams or Brandon Williams but to clarify my point I don't think the office would spend valuable early picks on a position that spends minimal time on the field unless thw player is dynamic. In this case a NT that can rush the passer. You raised a good point by addressing Brandons statistics which reflect his ability to create pressure but the stats lose value because he couldn't replicate that pressure against stronger competition. I only called the players he faced at senior bowl novice because in comparison to the players he will face in the NFL they're all novices. If had problems against the amateurs I doubt he will suddenly.start penetrating the pocket against professionals in the NFL. I'm not saying he's a terrible player and I would be excited to have him in the team and learning from Tomsula and Justin Smith. I just think your devaluing an early pick by picking a player that from all indications will only be able to contribute 30% of the time. A nickle corner, safety, or wr would have the opportunity to produce more and therefore in my eyes seem like better choices. Even Jenkins and Hankins would be better candidates because they have a more dynamic skillset. Anyways if something in my response isnt satisfying then feel free not respond. I wont quote you. Im pretty sure you qouted me first so I was just explaining myself but I my point shoukd be pretty apparent.

I would pick williams with the Caro 3rd.


The real difference lies in our evaluations of Brandon Williams.

It is commonly known that most scouts leave the Senior Bowl leave before the game is actually played. They leave before the game precisely because the game itself is the least important element at the Senior Bowl.

Brandon Williams had, other than the first day, a solid senior bowl week. In the practices and individual match ups, he showed that his skill set was on par with the big boys. I will agree that during the game itself, Williams did not play well. But, the fact is that you are putting an excessive import on the game, the same game that the vast majority of professionals do not bother to watch.

You state that his stats lose value because he could not replicate that pressure against stronger competition in the Senior Bowl game. Again that failure only occurred in the game itself, not in the drills and practices leading up to the game.

In fact, the general consensus was at the Senior Bowl Brandon Williams proved he belonged with the big boys. Scouts and reporters commented about how nimble (quick and agile) and powerful this big man was.

At the combine, Williams next chance to compete with the big boys, he demonstrated that his physical attributes were on a par with the big boys. Except for his 40 yard time, his results in the events were generally superior to the other defensive tackles at the combine. In the positional drills, Williams did well. He showed that his football skills were comparable to the competition.

In summary, except for the game the the professionals do not bother to watch, Williams has shown at the Senior Bowl and the Combine that he can compete with the big school boys. His performance at the combine and the Senior Bowl do not come close to showing that he will not be able to get to the quarterback in the future.

You have stated that you a visual learner. Apparently, Baalke is also a visual learner. He has stated very clearly that the game tape of a player over the length of his career is more important than the Senior Bowl and the Combine.

There is a predictive tool, the Production Ratio, that uses a players college sacks to predict how dynamic a player will be in the NFL.
Any score over 1.00 is good.
Aldon Smith had a 2.00; JJ Watt a 1.85; Von Miller a1.78. DeMarcus Ware, like Brandon Williams a small school player, had a 1.96.

Brandon Williams had a 1.85. Kwann Short a 1.33. Sylvester Williams a 1.16 and John Jenkins a 0.44.

I have my opinion, you have yours.
[ Edited by buck on Mar 10, 2013 at 1:52 AM ]
  • buck
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Originally posted by JustinNiner:
very good points! he will definitely be a productive player but the question will be how productive and where to take him. I would take a chance on him with our second 2nd round pick

I would prefer to take him with one of our thirds. But, it depends on how the draft unfolds and who is available when we pick.

A correction. I said he was one of the best 100 college players. I should have said best 100 players in this year's draft class.
It's stupid to pick a dt with the 1 st pick. He will only play about 30% of he snaps this season anyway. Last thing we need is another as Jenkins .
This mock would be similar to the Niners draft three years ago when they addressed the OL with their first two picks. It was a weakness then, but now their OL is a strengh . . . one of the best.

Right now the Niners DL is strong, but probably on the verge of a remake very soon. A draft like this could kill that concern and there'd be time for development also. And a top class safety thrown in to boot. I like it very much depending on what is done through FA (Sammie Lee maybe MIGHT change this?).

I understand the whole 30% argument, but playcalling and who plays at what point is adaptable to one's personnel. This could easily change with a different DL composition.

I too would like the Niners to draft another great offensive weapon, but one sometimes cannot do everything in one shot. The Niners went exclusively with offense last year with their top picks. Give them a chance to develop.Seems to be the Niners MO. And make one splash in free agency in this department.
Originally posted by buck:
The real difference lies in our evaluations of Brandon Williams.

It is commonly known that most scouts leave the Senior Bowl leave before the game is actually played. They leave before the game precisely because the game itself is the least important element at the Senior Bowl.

Brandon Williams had, other than the first day, a solid senior bowl week. In the practices and individual match ups, he showed that his skill set was on par with the big boys. I will agree that during the game itself, Williams did not play well. But, the fact is that you are putting an excessive import on the game, the same game that the vast majority of professionals do not bother to watch.

You state that his stats lose value because he could not replicate that pressure against stronger competition in the Senior Bowl game. Again that failure only occurred in the game itself, not in the drills and practices leading up to the game.

In fact, the general consensus was at the Senior Bowl Brandon Williams proved he belonged with the big boys. Scouts and reporters commented about how nimble (quick and agile) and powerful this big man was.

At the combine, Williams next chance to compete with the big boys, he demonstrated that his physical attributes were on a par with the big boys. Except for his 40 yard time, his results in the events were generally superior to the other defensive tackles at the combine. In the positional drills, Williams did well. He showed that his football skills were comparable to the competition.

In summary, except for the game the the professionals do not bother to watch, Williams has shown at the Senior Bowl and the Combine that he can compete with the big school boys. His performance at the combine and the Senior Bowl do not come close to showing that he will not be able to get to the quarterback in the future.

You have stated that you a visual learner. Apparently, Baalke is also a visual learner. He has stated very clearly that the game tape of a player over the length of his career is more important than the Senior Bowl and the Combine.

There is a predictive tool, the Production Ratio, that uses a players college sacks to predict how dynamic a player will be in the NFL.
Any score over 1.00 is good.
Aldon Smith had a 2.00; JJ Watt a 1.85; Von Miller a1.78. DeMarcus Ware, like Brandon Williams a small school player, had a 1.96.

Brandon Williams had a 1.85. Kwann Short a 1.33. Sylvester Williams a 1.16 and John Jenkins a 0.44.

I have my opinion, you have yours.

Thanks for this post Buck! Very informative.
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 9,889
Originally posted by 49ersHeroine:
It's stupid to pick a dt with the 1 st pick. He will only play about 30% of he snaps this season anyway. Last thing we need is another as Jenkins .

If we are using the 30% to talk about positional value, my sense is that importance of this 30% is overstated.

If we are using the 30% to evaluate the play of Isaac Sopoaga, the importance of the 30% becomes more critical.

The two uses of the 30% are not the same.

Sopoaga was not the only player on the team to play nose tackle.

Ricky Jean Francois played 27% of the defensive snaps and some of his snaps were at nose tackle.

Ricky Jean Francois started 3 games in 2012, and one of those games was as a replacement for Sopoaga.

To evaluate the position of nose tackle, one of things we should know is the % of snaps played by a nose tackle--any nose tackle, not just Sopoaga.

I do not know that %, but since Ricky Jean played one game at nose tackle, that % must be more than 30%.

If the 30% of snaps that Sopoaga played is more a reflection of his individual play, we can not logically claim that any nose tackle drafted would only play 30% of the defensive snaps.

My sense is that Sopoaga only played 30% of snaps because he was not effective in collapsing the pocket, harrying the passer, or getting sacks.

The schematic shift away from the base 3-4 defense on passing downs could have precipitated or enhanced by the relative weaknesses of Issac Sopoaga.

If a drafted nose tackle proves to be more effective than Sopoaga on passing downs, the number of snaps played a nose tackle would increase.
[ Edited by buck on Mar 10, 2013 at 1:02 PM ]
Originally posted by buck:
If we are using the 30% to talk about positional value, my sense is that importance of this 30% is overstated.

If we are using the 30% to evaluate the play of Isaac Sopoaga, the importance of the 30% becomes more critical.

The two uses of the 30% are not the same.

Sopoaga was not the only player on the team to play nose tackle.

Ricky Jean Francois played 27% of the defensive snaps and some of his snaps were at nose tackle.

Ricky Jean Francois started 3 games in 2012, and one of those games was as a replacement for Sopoaga.

To evaluate the position of nose tackle, one of things we should know is the % of snaps played by a nose tackle--any nose tackle, not just Sopoaga.

I do not know that %, but since Ricky Jean played one game at nose tackle, that % must be more than 30%.

If the 30% of snaps that Sopoaga played is more a reflection of his individual play, we can not logically claim that any nose tackle drafted would only play 30% of the defensive snaps.

My sense is that Sopoaga only played 30% of snaps because he was not effective in collapsing the pocket, harrying the passer, or getting sacks.

The schematic shift away from the base 3-4 defense on passing downs could have precipitated or enhanced by the relative weaknesses of Issac Sopoaga.

If a drafted nose tackle proves to be more effective than Sopoaga on passing downs, the number of snaps played a nose tackle would increase.

I absolutely agree with your last sentence. I think the amount of snaps is limited because of the effectiveness of a NT is substantially limited on passing down. Unfortunately Sopoago was ineffective on rushing down too. He was ranked in the top 5 of NT for 2012 on RYG. I feel strongly that if we had a more effective and dynamic NT Fangio would utilize him. He would get more snap and our peistine rush defense would get even better. We were ranked in the top 5 rush defenses despite Sopoago relative lack of production. It Its not that I think the position isn't valuable but it doesn't appear that we need a dominant NT for our defense to function. Its for this reason that I feel we don't need a NT early im the draft unless he has the skillset to improve the chemistry of the dline ie a pocket collapsing rusher. I'm inclined to.say Jenkins or Hankins could add thidls quality to the team nut a majority of people disagree. I think a pocket collapsing NT would be the laat piece to our dominating front and if Baalke and Harbaugh feels hes obtainable I hope they pick him. I just don't see that player in this class outside of Jenkins, Hankins, and Lotoulolei. Each of those players carry their own set of issues.
I'd be real happy with Brandon Williams. He's real stout and known to have some of the most violent hands in this draft.
IDC, I like this mock beginning to our draft..