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Matt Miller's latest ESPN mock draft

Originally posted by eonblue:
This is dumb. I GUARANTEE we don't pick either of those guys.

Well, if you GUARANTEE that Matt Miller of ESPN is dead wrong, I guess nothing else needs to be said on the subject. /thread
Originally posted by eonblue:
This is dumb. I GUARANTEE we don't pick either of those guys.

Why do you believe that? We can have both of the team wants them both. ..

Serious question.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by buck:
There is one year of film of Jessie Williams starting at nose tackle and another year of film with him starting at 3-4 defensive end.

Notice that I didn't say he couldn't play 3-4 DE, I said I didn't see him as a 3-4 DE for the 49ers.

I guess I don't understand why a 6'4", 320 lb. player with a non-stop motor can't play 3-4 DE.
Originally posted by GNielsen:
I guess I don't understand why a 6'4", 320 lb. player with a non-stop motor can't play 3-4 DE.

It's not that he can't. It's that he's not an ideal fit for what we ask of our 3-4 DEs.

1. Our 3-4 DEs go 6'3" 290 and 6'4" 285, and they're both very athletic and capable pass rushers.

2. In nickel and dime situations (70% of the time), both of them knock down to the 3-technique and become one-gap pass rushers.

3. Jesse Williams, while an excellent run stopper with a tremendous ability to anchor, has virtually no ability to rush the passer.

4. Jesse Williams is going to be far more effective in two-gap situations. He would be an excellent nose for us, but not an ideal replacement for Justin Smith or Ray McDonald.
[ Edited by JamesGatz83 on Mar 9, 2013 at 2:59 PM ]
Eric Reid all day. Guy will be a top 5 safety at some point in his career BOOK IT!!!!!
Originally posted by GNielsen:
I guess I don't understand why a 6'4", 320 lb. player with a non-stop motor can't play 3-4 DE.

Jesse Williams doesn't have a non stop motor. Hes a 2 gapper NT. He doesn't have the explosive step, footwork, and pass rushing moves to beat his blocks if he was a 3-4 end. Ive watched him all year. He's a rock in the middle that bench presses blocks off but he will never have that natural ability to rush the passer. Maybe if he was isolated in a blocker thats not a saavy tackle he could push himself through but he would be awful against the run.
Originally posted by SFL49ER:
Why do you believe that? We can have both of the team wants them both. ..

Serious question.

Because I believe the front office is smarter than that. I don't have any idea what the FO is thinking but I GUARANTEE they're not thinking about spending the 1st two rounds on two prospects that can't make it to the passer. If they can't make it to the passer they're not playing the nickle. That means they're playing 30% of the densive snaps. I mean they can go to FA and draft a vet that could START playing 30% of the d snals on day one because neither ot these guys would.
  • buck
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Originally posted by eonblue:
Originally posted by SFL49ER:
Why do you believe that? We can have both of the team wants them both. ..

Serious question.

Because I believe the front office is smarter than that. I don't have any idea what the FO is thinking but I GUARANTEE they're not thinking about spending the 1st two rounds on two prospects that can't make it to the passer. If they can't make it to the passer they're not playing the nickle. That means they're playing 30% of the densive snaps. I mean they can go to FA and draft a vet that could START playing 30% of the d snals on day one because neither ot these guys would.

You claim that Brandon Williams cannot get to the passer. (see highlighted section of your post.)

Brandon Williams made his college career living in the opponents backfield.

If there is any defensive lineman, tackle or end, in this draft that has proven he can get sacks, it is Brandon Williams.

In 42 games, he had 27 sacks, 18 quarterback hurries, and 50.5 TFL.
'
Compare his disruptive function with some of the other defensive linemen in this draft class.

Kwann Short 50 games 18.5 sacks, 0 quarterback hurries, 50 TFL.

Datone Jones 51 games 12.5 sacks, 3 quarterback hurries, 36.5 TFL,

Sylvester Williams 25 games 8.5 sacks, 11 quarterback hurries, 20.5 TFL.

You might want to reconsider that guarantee you are offering. ...

Here are a few more:

Alex Okafor 52 games 23 sacks, 29 quarterback hurries, 34 TFL

Damontre Moore 38 games 26.5 sacks, 13 quarterback hurries, 45 TFL

Jarvis Jones 26 games 28 sacks, 10 quarterback hurries, 44 TFL
Technically Jones is an OLB, but he might play DE in the NFL



Brandon Williams is among the best in this draft class at getting sacks.
[ Edited by buck on Mar 10, 2013 at 1:48 AM ]
Yes those stats are nice buy not impressive considering he was in D2 where a majority of the players stand no chance of going pro. I'm not trying to minimize his accomplishments but his competition is in no way comparable to the competition the players you compared him to faced week in and week out.


Thats his senior bowl. He got one pressure. He was easily blocked out on the double team. He was blocked out of run plays. Warford easily held him on passing downs.

Im a visual learner and there was nothing in his senior bowl game that leads me to believe he can replicate those rushing stats in the NFL. I'm not saying he doesn't have ability to be a great player but he would be very far down my board if I was picking. If he was more dynamic then I would be more inclined to agree but he's going to be playing 30% of the snaps imo and you need more value out of your early picks. Kwama geathers and Montori hughes will be theres in the 4-5 range and we could sign a cheap vet. We would be getting the same production for a cheaper price.
When trying to decide between Buck's NUMBERS and eonblue's OPINION, I'm going to have to go with BUCK'S NUMBERS.
  • buck
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  • Posts: 10,646
Originally posted by eonblue:
Yes those stats are nice buy not impressive considering he was in D2 where a majority of the players stand no chance of going pro. I'm not trying to minimize his accomplishments but his competition is in no way comparable to the competition the players you compared him to faced week in and week out.

Thats his senior bowl. He got one pressure. He was easily blocked out on the double team. He was blocked out of run plays. Warford easily held him on passing downs.

Im a visual learner and there was nothing in his senior bowl game that leads me to believe he can replicate those rushing stats in the NFL. I'm not saying he doesn't have ability to be a great player but he would be very far down my board if I was picking. If he was more dynamic then I would be more inclined to agree but he's going to be playing 30% of the snaps imo and you need more value out of your early picks. Kwama geathers and Montori hughes will be theres in the 4-5 range and we could sign a cheap vet. We would be getting the same production for a cheaper price.

Making the transition from D2 can be difficult, I will grant you that. You may be correct in your assessment of Brandon Williams. Not sure what you mean by very far down my board; that lacks precision and concreteness. To me that sounds at least below the fourth round. I have him as a solid third round pick, and quite possibly, depending on how the draft unfolds, a second round pick.

Sopoaga played around 30% of the snaps, but I think that was a result of his not being able to get sacks or collapse the pocket. If we had a nose tackle that could seriously harry the quarter back, our pass rush would improve. If Brandon Williams could do that, and I believe that he could, he would make it more difficult for the opposing team to double Justin Smith or Aldon Smith. The importance of an inside pass rush can not be denied. If B Williams can provide that inside pass rush he would play more than 30% of the snaps, i.e., his relative value would increase.

But, I will make no guarantees, I am not that intelligent.

Baalke is also a visual learner. He has access to and values the game tape of a player over the career of that player more than the game tape of the Senior Bowl. For him the Senior Bowl is one minor bit of information that needs to be processed.

We will see how it works out.
[ Edited by buck on Mar 9, 2013 at 7:45 PM ]
Originally posted by buck:
Making the transition from D2 can be difficult, I will grant you that. You may be correct in your assessment of Brandon Williams. Not sure what you mean by very far down my board; that lacks precision and concreteness. To me that sounds at least below the fourth round. I have him as a solid third round pick, and quite possibly, depending on how the draft unfolds, a second round pick.

Sopoaga played around 30% of the snaps, but I think that was a result of his not being able to get sacks or collapse the pocket. If we had a nose tackle that could seriously harry the quarter back, our pass rush would improve. If Brandon Williams could do that, and I believe that he could, he would make it more difficult for the opposing team to double Justin Smith or Aldon Smith. The importance of an inside pass rush can not be denied. If B Williams can provide that inside pass rush he would play more than 30% of the snaps, i.e., his relative value would increase.

But, I will make no guarantees, I am not that intelligent.

But, you made a guarantee--a guarantee about what the SF front office was not going to do, not what you would do.

Baalke is also a visual learner. He has access to and values the game tape of a player over the career of that player more than the game tape of the Senior Bowl. For him the Senior Bowl is one small piece of information that needs to be processed.

We will see how it works out.

I was kind of hoping we would get a good WR in this deep class. Or maybe Datone Jones with the first pick. We really need some CB depth to fall back on because that position seems uncertain. Eifert or Ertz are tempting options considering we need a tall RZ threat for Kaep. But I guess two NT that look incapable of rushing the passer against novice competition are equatable. I'm sure the FO will see the value in that with our picks in the first two rounds.
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
I like Jesse and Brandon Williams but I would not take both of them.

this! 2 NTs doesnt sound good. i would say datone jones, reid, and then brandon williams
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by eonblue:
Originally posted by SFL49ER:
Why do you believe that? We can have both of the team wants them both. ..

Serious question.

Because I believe the front office is smarter than that. I don't have any idea what the FO is thinking but I GUARANTEE they're not thinking about spending the 1st two rounds on two prospects that can't make it to the passer. If they can't make it to the passer they're not playing the nickle. That means they're playing 30% of the densive snaps. I mean they can go to FA and draft a vet that could START playing 30% of the d snals on day one because neither ot these guys would.

You claim that Brandon Williams cannot get to the passer. (see highlighted section of your post.)

Brandon Williams made his college career living in the opponents backfield.

If there is any defensive lineman, tackle or end, in this draft that has proven he can get sacks, it is Brandon Williams.

In 42 games, he had 27 sacks, 18 quarterback hurries, and 50.5 TFL.
'
Compare his disruptive function with some of the other defensive linemen in this draft class.

Kwame Short 50 games 18.5 sacks, 0 quarterback hurries, 50 TFL.

Datone Jones 51 games 12.5 sacks, 3 quarterback hurries, 36.5 TFL,

Sylvester Williams 25 games 8.5 sacks, 11 quarterback hurries, 20.5 TFL.

You might want to reconsider that guarantee you are offering. ...

Here are a few more:

Alex Okafor 52 games 23 sacks, 29 quarterback hurries, 34 TFL

Damontre Moore 38 games 26.5 sacks, 13 quarterback hurries, 45 TFL

Jarvis Jones 26 games 28 sacks, 10 quarterback hurries, 44 TFL
Technically Jones is an OLB, but he might play DE in the NFL



Brandon Williams is among the best in this draft class at getting sacks.

yea but you also gotta point out that he played worst teams. i like brandon williams alot but you still have to account for the weak opponents he played. Its tricky picking small school standouts. But you cannot deny those numbers are big production!!!!!
[ Edited by JustinNiner on Mar 9, 2013 at 9:01 PM ]
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 10,646
Originally posted by eonblue:
I was kind of hoping we would get a good WR in this deep class. Or maybe Datone Jones with the first pick. We really need some CB depth to fall back on because that position seems uncertain. Eifert or Ertz are tempting options considering we need a tall RZ threat for Kaep. But I guess two NT that look incapable of rushing the passer against novice competition are equatable. I'm sure the FO will see the value in that with our picks in the first two rounds.

If you are going to quote my posts, the least you should do is respond to what I have said.

I challenged you only about your claim that Brandon Williams can not get to the quarterback.
At no point in our interchange did I speak about the second nose tackle, the mock draft in question, or our draft needs.

I understand that we have a difference of opinion about the capability of Brandon Williams and I am willing to continue that discussion.

The point about Brandon Williams that you make in this response is that he looks incapable of rushing the passer against novice competition.

At first, Williams could not make it to the passer, now he can not do so against what you call novice competition. I have already acknowledged that making the jump from D2 football can be difficult. I do not understand this addition.

But, it is an interesting addition. Since you were talking about both Jessie Williams and Brandon Williams, the novice competition can not merely be a repeated reference to the D2 competition that Brandon Williams played against. The only logical inference that can be drawn is that players in both D1 and D2 are no more than novice competition.

First, if you are trying to be facetious, I do not appreciate it.

Second, if you are being serious, I am confused. Who in this draft class has not competed against novice competition.

Third, if you can not, or will not, respond to what I actually say, I see no point in continuing this interchange.

Have a good day.
[ Edited by buck on Mar 9, 2013 at 9:15 PM ]