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Analysis of Round 2 WR Prospects

Rogers! Big body that can fly and makes tough catches. Great value at 61 or 74
Lots of pretty good talent that should be there for the taking between the end of the 1st round and the third. The greed in me hopes Rogers falls to the third and we can get him there.
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
Lots of pretty good talent that should be there for the taking between the end of the 1st round and the third. The greed in me hopes Rogers falls to the third and we can get him there.

I would grade him as a late first rounder on talent and measurable alone. There are two things that may cause him to fall, his suspension from Tennessee for substance abuse and the fact that his most recent game film is of him against less than top tier talent at Tennessee Tech.

Not sure if that's enough to make him fall into the 3rd. I think that's wishful thinking.
Thanks blm7754--nice to see these guys compared like this...although in a month there may be different guys rated second rounders. Have you thought of adding 1st and 3rd round prospects to the list? As they jockey around toward the draft that would be very helpful as well. I really like your comments regarding quickness versus speed as there have been some devastating, but slow, WRs in the past. The trick was their speed in cuts made them dynamic.
Cordarrelle Patterson is so far ahead of the pack.

I don't like and wouldn't draft ANY of the other WR's in this draft class to play top 4...

Character issues.
Size issues
Speed & separation concerns

Crabtree
Harvin
Patterson
Jenkins
[ Edited by SkyGod on Mar 3, 2013 at 8:59 AM ]
Originally posted by SkyGod:
Cordarrelle Patterson is so far ahead of the pack.

I don't like and wouldn't draft ANY of the other WR's in this draft class to play top 4...

Character issues.
Size issues
Speed & separation concerns

Crabtree
Harvin
Patterson
Jenkins

This is absurd. Like I've said, Quinton Patton may very well turn out to be the best WR from this whole draft. Additionally you also have Keenan Allen, Da'Rick Rogers, Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Markus Wheaton, lots of WR talent.


As much as you talk up Patterson, he also has some of the highest bust factor due to how raw he is. He's not a refined route runner, he is prone to drops at bad times, a lot of that can be coached up, but there are no guarantees with anyone.


Also, Harvin isn't coming to the 49ers, so get over it already.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Mar 3, 2013 at 10:08 AM ]
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Thanks blm7754--nice to see these guys compared like this...although in a month there may be different guys rated second rounders. Have you thought of adding 1st and 3rd round prospects to the list? As they jockey around toward the draft that would be very helpful as well. I really like your comments regarding quickness versus speed as there have been some devastating, but slow, WRs in the past. The trick was their speed in cuts made them dynamic.

Hopkins and Patton are two who come to mind in this draft. Hopkins is just an absurdly talented route runner, he's not fast, but his route-running precision allows him to get separation. Patton isn't really fast either but doesn't slow down going into his cuts, once he reaches top speed, he stays at his top speed, making it difficult for defensive backs to keep up with him. Rogers is highly talented at using his big body to screen off defenders and create space for him to go up and catch the ball with his big sized oven mitts. He also was very successful at simply shoving the defensive back out of the way, something he'll have to be more careful with in the NFL, not fully extending his arms.


Generally I feel that to beat big physical defensive backs, you need a lot of quickness, to get your WR to places where they can't get to as quickly but with Rogers, he really can clear defensive backs out of his way, he's not a guy you're going to be able to consistently beat by pressing him.
Like the assumption of this thread. 2nd round look at WRs. There is no way I see us taking a WR in Round #1. Nothing worse than a team making a first bad round pick. Given many think AJ was a bad move. No reason to put yourself in a position to really look bad by blowing back-to-back #1 picks for WR.

Fans expect your #1 select to be a starter (regardless if #1 or #32), I'd be willing to bet whomever we select at #31, will start.

And not with our needs on Defense. Last 3 years with the top 3 picks, six have been offensive draft picks, only 3. D's turn.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Hopkins and Patton are two who come to mind in this draft. Hopkins is just an absurdly talented route runner, he's not fast, but his route-running precision allows him to get separation. Patton isn't really fast either but doesn't slow down going into his cuts, once he reaches top speed, he stays at his top speed, making it difficult for defensive backs to keep up with him. Rogers is highly talented at using his big body to screen off defenders and create space for him to go up and catch the ball with his big sized oven mitts. He also was very successful at simply shoving the defensive back out of the way, something he'll have to be more careful with in the NFL, not fully extending his arms.


Generally I feel that to beat big physical defensive backs, you need a lot of quickness, to get your WR to places where they can't get to as quickly but with Rogers, he really can clear defensive backs out of his way, he's not a guy you're going to be able to consistently beat by pressing him.

I really like the idea of getting a big receiver who can hold his own against the Seahawks CBs...although the league may crack down on Seattle's tactics. They were embarrassingly allowed to manhandle receivers past the five yard mark last year. When I think of a receiver who overcame speed and size deficits Biletnikoff always comes to mind. He was cagey and extremely smart on route running...which makes your comments regarding Hopkins peek my interest.

Edit: With so many picks I would not be surprised to see the 9ers take two of these guys if they're available in the second and third rounds. With questions about Manningham's return, loss of Moss, Williams injury, we are left short once again.
[ Edited by dtg_9er on Mar 3, 2013 at 11:41 AM ]
Maybe it's just me, but you don't beat big corners with even bigger WRs (that's the "arms race" mentality of most football teams). You beat big corners with smaller, quicker WRs by moving them around and playing them more in space (as opposed to traditional formations), thus taking away the big CBs advantage of playing physical at the line of scrimmage.

It's a game of chess, not checkers.
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Maybe it's just me, but you don't beat big corners with even bigger WRs (that's the "arms race" mentality of most football teams). You beat big corners with smaller, quicker WRs by moving them around and playing them more in space (as opposed to traditional formations), thus taking away the big CBs advantage of playing physical at the line of scrimmage.

It's a game of chess, not checkers.


You won't get any disagreement with me there. You don't go strength vs strength, you go strength vs weakness. That is why I think all this focus on big wide receivers is misguided. Speed and quickness wins out. Its like playing rock, paper, scissors, if the other guy uses a rock all the time, you don't want to choose rock, that doesn't get you anywhere, you want to go with paper.


That said, I do think Rogers is especially physical for a wide receiver, I think he is strong enough to hold his own against the more physical defensive backs and really beat up on the weaker ones. He plays very violently, beats presses, shoves defensive backs out of the way with his body, I don't think he'd be a bad way to go.

However as a general rule, yeah, this team needs loads of quickness. If you want to beat a guy like a Brandon Browner of Seattle, you beat by using someone like a Tavon Austin or a Quinton Patton, someone with terrific quickness that makes it difficult for him to hold his coverage as he struggles to turn his hips and change direction frequently.


In my new mock draft, trying to be as open-minded as possible, I included both dimensions, speed/quickness in Austin and strength, physicality and red-zone prowess in Rogers. I think both add vital dimensions to this offense.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Mar 3, 2013 at 12:18 PM ]
vet WR >> weak crop of WR's in this years draft
Originally posted by Frisco69ers:
vet WR >> weak crop of WR's in this years draft

What don't you get about no money?

Marathe admitted that this team is going to struggle to hold on to its OWN players, and that is without investing in outside free agents. Not sure where you get the idea that this crop of WR's is weak anywhere outside of the Top 15 picks. I think there's plenty of talent in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.


The bizarre idea that some people have that this team is going to bring in a Harvin, Wallace or Cruz simply defies the reality of the situation.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Mar 3, 2013 at 12:22 PM ]
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Maybe it's just me, but you don't beat big corners with even bigger WRs (that's the "arms race" mentality of most football teams). You beat big corners with smaller, quicker WRs by moving them around and playing them more in space (as opposed to traditional formations), thus taking away the big CBs advantage of playing physical at the line of scrimmage.

It's a game of chess, not checkers.


You won't get any disagreement with me there. You don't go strength vs strength, you go strength vs weakness. That is why I think all this focus on big wide receivers is misguided. Speed and quickness wins out. Its like playing rock, paper, scissors, if the other guy uses a rock all the time, you don't want to choose rock, that doesn't get you anywhere, you want to go with paper.


That said, I do think Rogers is especially physical for a wide receiver, I think he is strong enough to hold his own against the more physical defensive backs and really beat up on the weaker ones. He plays very violently, beats presses, shoves defensive backs out of the way with his body, I don't think he'd be a bad way to go.

However as a general rule, yeah, this team needs loads of quickness. If you want to beat a guy like a Brandon Browner of Seattle, you beat by using someone like a Tavon Austin or a Quinton Patton, someone with terrific quickness that makes it difficult for him to hold his coverage as he struggles to turn his hips and change direction frequently.


In my new mock draft, trying to be as open-minded as possible, I included both dimensions, speed/quickness in Austin and strength, physicality and red-zone prowess in Rogers. I think both add vital dimensions to this offense.

I agree with Rogers, since not all CBs you play will be the size of Browner or Sherman. You really need a good mix of bigger, physical WRs (to exploit the smaller CBs in the league) and those Tavon Austin-like WRs that can frustrate the bigger CBs and cause the right kinds of mismatches. I think too many fans believe you have to have a WR corps of one or the other (big/physical OR small/quick), but the reality is you need a good mix of both so you can game-plan effectively for whatever you're facing that week.
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
I agree with Rogers, since not all CBs you play will be the size of Browner or Sherman. You really need a good mix of bigger, physical WRs (to exploit the smaller CBs in the league) and those Tavon Austin-like WRs that can frustrate the bigger CBs and cause the right kinds of mismatches. I think too many fans believe you have to have a WR corps of one or the other (big/physical OR small/quick), but the reality is you need a good mix of both so you can game-plan effectively for whatever you're facing that week.

Absolutely. The correlation with bigger=better is mistaken. Many of the top WR's in football are around 6 feet tall, not huge, but they all either have outstanding quickness or are elite route runners. The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of 2 early WR's in the draft. Going into the season with Crabtree, Jenkins and then Williams...(and who knows when Manningham will be back) seems more like same old.

That and waiting and drafting WR's late just so you can add more of them to your roster without regard for value and talent. With Austin, Rogers, Patton, Hopkins, to me those are all top shelf value WR's considering where they will be picked at. Take two of those and put the WR issue to bed for good.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Mar 3, 2013 at 12:26 PM ]