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2013 Draft: Expect the Unexpected

You should only trust in your own judgment, evaluation, board. Nobody gets a free pass in this league, because at some point, virtually everyone gets shown the door. Trust yourself and your judgment, and come ready to defend your analysis, whether you end up hitting or missing,

As for the 2012 draft class, it looks like a weak class for Baalke, but you never know for a couple of years. It could be that the hot class of 2011 crashes out and the cold class of 2012 makes a serious run.
Totally agree to expect the unexpected.

Would I be "Pissed'? A bit Frustrated is more like it.

I watch some college ball BUT nowhere near what others like Phoenix, Mad Dog, AB & many others do.

I consider heavily on their observations and comments. Then I use that as a basis to read about the players they talk about. Also I really look at "Sleepers" on other sites. I go through as many draft data bases as I can - Finally to formulate my own draft. When one of my guys gets passed over or goes to our competitors I get a bit exasperated abd then move on.

VERY happy many of my draft pick didn't happen like Carriker over Willis.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
You should only trust in your own judgment, evaluation, board. Nobody gets a free pass in this league, because at some point, virtually everyone gets shown the door. Trust yourself and your judgment, and come ready to defend your analysis, whether you end up hitting or missing,

As for the 2012 draft class, it looks like a weak class for Baalke, but you never know for a couple of years. It could be that the hot class of 2011 crashes out and the cold class of 2012 makes a serious run.


Agree that if you create a mock you should defend it, but the idea folks on a board have the resources to evaluate prospects at the level of an NFL team is definately unrealistic. My judgement may be superb, but I have not held any interviews with prospect nor seen them up close and personal. I think the background checks are among the most important elements of the draft because they give the teams some inkling as to future intensity level and dedication...players like Balmer aside!
[ Edited by dtg_9er on Feb 17, 2013 at 12:30 PM ]
So you're saying that come draft day, Goodell might say something like....
"The Kansas City Chiefs have traded the #1 pick to San Francisco (for Alex Smith and our 31, a third and a fourth) and with the 1st pick of the 2013 NFL Draft, the San Francisco Forty-Niners select....
Star Lotulelei, Defensive Tackle, Utah."






A man can dream dammit!
Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
Originally posted by BadgerHawk:
Originally posted by mayo49:
We need to go for quality not quanity in this draft. Package pics and move up for players you like in each round.

I agree with you on this but we need to strike a balance. I think a good strategy would be to take a look at the upcoming free agents in '14 and '15 and draft according to that. There is no way we should stay with 14 picks. I'd like to see us move back into the 2nd with out 31st pick and get another pick or two for next year and then move some of the lower picks to help us bump up. I'd be all for more 2nd-5th round picks.

I don't get your insistence of moving out of the first round this year. This draft is not as top heavy IMO and there should be plenty of talented players available at #31. I agree with Mayo that the Niners have all the ammunition they need to move up to get who they want this year (Dion Jordan, anyone?). If they can't make a deal to move up, standing pat at #31 isn't going to be the worst thing in the world either. Baalke has also shown that he will trade back for future picks if they don't like who's available when they are on the clock. That's why the Niners have all these picks in the first place.


Nailed it
Originally posted by Genius1310:
So you're saying that come draft day, Goodell might say something like....
"The Kansas City Chiefs have traded the #1 pick to San Francisco (for Alex Smith and our 31, a third and a fourth) and with the 1st pick of the 2013 NFL Draft, the San Francisco Forty-Niners select....
Star Lotulelei, Defensive Tackle, Utah."






A man can dream dammit!

Omg that would be amazing if we got the first pick
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Agree that if you create a mock you should defend it, but the idea folks on a board have the resources to evaluate prospects at the level of an NFL team is definately unrealistic. My judgement may be superb, but I have not held any interviews with prospect nor seen them up close and personal. I think the background checks are among the most important elements of the draft because they give the teams some inkling as to future intensity level and dedication...players like Balmer aside!

In the current media dominated world, I tend to disagree with your statements that professionals have a large edge over the fan who does a fair amount of evaluation on their own. With the huge amount of broadcast games, exposure at the Senior Bowl, combine, and campus workouts, plus access to the measurables in height, weight, speed, strength, and tons of interviews conducted at the local and national level, access to police records, etc, a person who puts time and effort can come up with a defendable argument In their analysis.

The only thing the team has access to that fans do not are the medical reports.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
In the current media dominated world, I tend to disagree with your statements that professionals have a large edge over the fan who does a fair amount of evaluation on their own. With the huge amount of broadcast games, exposure at the Senior Bowl, combine, and campus workouts, plus access to the measurables in height, weight, speed, strength, and tons of interviews conducted at the local and national level, access to police records, etc, a person who puts time and effort can come up with a defendable argument In their analysis.

The only thing the team has access to that fans do not are the medical reports.

Teams speak to past coaches, family members and others when a high pick is on the line and we just do not have those connections. A former high school coach may be willing to say more than the politically correct media--"Great kid, hard worker, good family" nonsense...but only to a scout who has earned their trust. Just think they have much more access than we do...but then, I don't watch the Senior Bowl let alone the Senior Bowl practices. Do watch some of the combine when I can. So perhaps you are correct that a more serious fan can be informed to a professional degree...but doubt it.

I believe fans are also victims of idiotic media write-ups based on rumor and personal bias. I have no interest in relying on pundits and their mock mocks.
Originally posted by NinerFan408:
Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:
I'll be upset if a good defensive linemen is there for the taking and we reach for another position. Teams get themselves in trouble not taking the BPA when it's their turn to pick. At #30 last season there were several players there for the taking. I begged for us to take Janoris Jenkins and would've settled for Kendall Reyes or Courtney Upshaw but we took a undersized and skinny project receiver. We did end up getting more picks for the 2013 draft but the 2012 draft ended up being one of the worst in the NFL in it's first year.

Its amazing when people on here talk like this. I mean if you or I or anyone knew Reyes, Upshaw or Janoris Jenkins were going to be good players to pick at 30 as opposed to AJ Jenkins you would have a job in the NFL. But no you are on a fourm with the rest of the armchair GM's. Player A is a reach and Player B has good value, total BS from almost everyone on here. There is a reason people work as scouts and personnel directors and GM's.

Hindsight is 20/20

Disagree. Talent, especially first round talent, is not that hard to evaluate. Take Janoris Jenkins for example. Everyone and their mom knew that he was a stud. The worry was off the field not on the field. He was not a player here you needed justification to take him in the first. Upshaw the worry was age, etc. The previous poster didnt even mention guys like Wolfe, Martin, or Fleener.

Most talent that falls to the end of the first round is talent that falls not based on on the field play, but due to other issues. Aj Jenkins on the other hand as very hard to justify as being ahead of the other wr's that were available in the second. That is why AJ was a reach.

I love Harbaalkie, but i have feeling they may have missed on AJ Jenkins, especally if you consider the talent that could have been had instead of him in the first, and the comparable talent available in the second.
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TraOriginally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
In the current media dominated world, I tend to disagree with your statements that professionals have a large edge over the fan who does a fair amount of evaluation on their own. With the huge amount of broadcast games, exposure at the Senior Bowl, combine, and campus workouts, plus access to the measurables in height, weight, speed, strength, and tons of interviews conducted at the local and national level, access to police records, etc, a person who puts time and effort can come up with a defendable argument In their analysis.

The only thing the team has access to that fans do not are the medical reports.

Teams speak to past coaches, family members and others when a high pick is on the line and we just do not have those connections. A former high school coach may be willing to say more than the politically correct media--"Great kid, hard worker, good family" nonsense...but only to a scout who has earned their trust. Just think they have much more access than we do...but then, I don't watch the Senior Bowl let alone the Senior Bowl practices. Do watch some of the combine when I can. So perhaps you are correct that a more serious fan can be informed to a professional degree...but doubt it.

I believe fans are also victims of idiotic media write-ups based on rumor and personal bias. I have no interest in relying on pundits and their mock mocks.

The resources that a team has exceed by far the resources of a individual.

We do not have direct immediate access to players.
Teams can interview the players, their families, and their coaches. Team bring players in for visits.

Teams have scouting staffs. We do not.

These scouting staffs go to hundreds of games a year, visit and talk to coaches. We do not and can not.

Teams have access to and analysis game film. We have access to broadcast games and u tube highlights.

But, it is also true that there is no denying that the information available to us to much greater than before.

And there is also no denying that teams, in spite of their massive resources and accumulated mounds of information, make mistakes quite frequently.
Originally posted by 49oz2superbowl:
Originally posted by NinerFan408:
Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:
I'll be upset if a good defensive linemen is there for the taking and we reach for another position. Teams get themselves in trouble not taking the BPA when it's their turn to pick. At #30 last season there were several players there for the taking. I begged for us to take Janoris Jenkins and would've settled for Kendall Reyes or Courtney Upshaw but we took a undersized and skinny project receiver. We did end up getting more picks for the 2013 draft but the 2012 draft ended up being one of the worst in the NFL in it's first year.

Its amazing when people on here talk like this. I mean if you or I or anyone knew Reyes, Upshaw or Janoris Jenkins were going to be good players to pick at 30 as opposed to AJ Jenkins you would have a job in the NFL. But no you are on a fourm with the rest of the armchair GM's. Player A is a reach and Player B has good value, total BS from almost everyone on here. There is a reason people work as scouts and personnel directors and GM's.

Hindsight is 20/20

Your comment shows a complete lack of understanding of the sports business. The people at the top in sports organizations are people who took a big gamble and decided to devote their careers in the most unstable profession in the US today. There is a reason why GM's and scouts aren't graduates of Top 50 universities (and believe me there are plenty of people in the well-educated population who have an eye for talent). They aren't because most educated people aren't willing to take the risk of a likely deadend, risky, and low paying career in hopes that it might pay out.

I have no doubt in my mind that atleast 10 members on this board if provided with the resources, could do a better of drafting than some GM's in the NFL today. If you were to take a Webzone consensus of the player to draft at each spot in the draft over the past 10 years we would be an above average NFL franchise.

Yes not everyone on this board knows what they're talking about, and yes many are wrong more often than not. With that said, well paid and well respected GM's miss just as often. Scouting is not a science, there are so many unknowns and many times the "gut" of the draft gurus on this board has been more right than the "brains" of respected GM's.

Originally posted by 49oz2superbowl:
Your comment shows a complete lack of understanding of the sports business. The people at the top in sports organizations are people who took a big gamble and decided to devote their careers in the most unstable profession in the US today. There is a reason why GM's and scouts aren't graduates of Top 50 universities (and believe me there are plenty of people in the well-educated population who have an eye for talent). They aren't because most educated people aren't willing to take the risk of a likely deadend, risky, and low paying career in hopes that it might pay out.

I have no doubt in my mind that atleast 10 members on this board if provided with the resources, could do a better of drafting than some GM's in the NFL today. If you were to take a Webzone consensus of the player to draft at each spot in the draft over the past 10 years we would be an above average NFL franchise.

Yes not everyone on this board knows what they're talking about, and yes many are wrong more often than not. With that said, well paid and well respected GM's miss just as often. Scouting is not a science, there are so many unknowns and many times the "gut" of the draft gurus on this board has been more right than the "brains" of respected GM's.
Bingo!!
Players like Janoris Jenkins who slide because of marijuana use have no incentive to stop using in college. Now when they get to the NFL millions of dollars is an incentive to stop using. Randy Moss,Dez Bryant and others have slipped in the draft but for the most part have stayed out of trouble. Only every once in a blue moon a Lawrence Phillips come around. Janoris Jenkins was easily a top 10 to 15 player in the 2012 draft. At pick #30 I would've selected Janoris Jenkins and looked brilliant in doing so. I pleaded for 2 months before the draft to select him if he was there. A little marijuana use would never scare me away from a very good football player. Realistically how many CEO's of fortune 500 company's smoked a little pot in college? It's not like Jenkins robbed a bank and killed 2 security guards.
[ Edited by SanFranFanfrmVa on Feb 18, 2013 at 6:59 PM ]
Watch Baalke pick Brandon Williams at #31 so people can freak out about drafting a small school kid who was projected as a 2nd rounder by draft experts.