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How many of our players that we draft can actually make the team?

  • fryet
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,871
We currently have 59 players on our roster (thanks to IR). Some we may choose to not resign. I believe we also have 14 draft picks. It seems wasteful to draft a player that has no chance to make the 53, and will probably be picked up before we can put them on our practice squad. So I thought it would be fun to list all of the players, and look at those that reasonably have a chance to lose their position on the 53 man roster.

Goodwin, Jonathan
Brown, Tarell
Culliver, Chris
Rogers, Carlos
Brock, Tramaine
Cox, Perrish
Jean Francois, Ricky
Jerod-Eddie, Tony
McDonald, Ray
Smith, Justin
Sopoaga, Isaac - I suspect that SOAP and RJF won't both make it back, but one will
Williams, Ian
Miller, Bruce
Tukuafu, Will
Davis, Leonard
Iupati, Mike
Kilgore, Daniel
Looney, Joe
Boone, Alex
Akers, David
Bowman, NaVorro
Brooks, Ahmad
Fleming, Darius
Gooden, Tavares
Grant, Larry
Haggans, Clark
Haralson, Parys
Johnson, Cam
Smith, Aldon
Wilhoite, Michael
Willis, Patrick
Lee, Andy
Kaepernick, Colin
Smith, Alex
Tolzien, Scott
Dixon, Anthony
Gore, Frank
Hampton, Jewel
Hunter, Kendall
James, LaMichael
Goldson, Dashon
McBath, Darcel
Robinson, Trenton
Spillman, C.J.
Whitner, Donte
Davis, Anthony
Staley, Joe
Celek, Garrett
Davis, Vernon
Walker, Delanie
Dobbs, Demarcus
Jennings, Brian
Crabtree, Michael
Ginn Jr., Ted
Hall, Chad
Jenkins, A.J
Manningham, Mario
Moss, Randy
Williams, Kyle

So, I have 25 bolded players. 59-25 would be 34, meaning that we could conceivably draft 19 players and they could make the 53 man roster. I don't think that all 25 will fail to make the team, though. Presumably, some of the DB and OL will make the 53 man team at least.

So in theory there is room on the roster for 14 new players. Would you draft 14 players in the upcoming draft? Would you try and consolidate picks? Exchange them for future year picks?

I think my personal preference would be to try and consolidate picks and move up higher in the first to get a better DL. Safety, CB, and TE are other positions I would target in the draft. If possible, I would love to trade 1 or 2 picks this year for picks next year. I think next year is when we may need to start to draft some replacements for positions where we can't afford to pay a Pro Bowl incumbent.
  • teeohh
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  • Posts: 11,874
If we end up with 14 draft picks I think the most players we end up drafting is 10. I think we will be active trading up and down. I wouldn't think all 10 could make the roster though
I don't think it is completely out of the question to use all 14, but it woudn't be wise, unless we use the late picks on guys who fell because of injury or character concerns, and even then, you don't want to bring in too many of those. Realistically, there will be a lot of wheeling and dealing as guys fall and weaker teams make trades for picks to bring in young guys to fill up their rosters. We might be able to stay put if we can get good value in the Alex Smith trade. I still like the idea of swapping 2nd round picks with Kansas City. One one of the draft value charts, the 34th overall pick is worth 560 points, whereas pick 63 or 62 (didn't the Saints forfeit a pick?) are worth 276 and 284 points respectively. The difference in value is around 280 points, which is the value of a pick at the end of the 2nd round. Considering a team is getting a QB that will only be 29 when the season begins, has won 60% of his last 45 starts (going back to the Singletary era), 62 TDs and 32 picks, I'd say that's a pretty fair deal.

So now we would be in position to move up if necessary (will probably cost us the 3rd round pick from Carolina + Kansas City's 2nd) to the high 20s/low teens or we could stay where we are and draft a 3-4 DE and NT of the future Think Datone Jones AND Jesse Williams or another nice package deal. I'm going to be optimistic and hope both of those guys are available at 31. If we can get two guys that can start immediately or be future starters for the D line without having to move up, I can see us possibly moving up to get more picks in the top 100 and trading for picks in the 2014 draft.

I'm calling it now, the 2013 offseason can potentially be Trent Baalke's masterpiece. I'm not expecting him to top the talent of 2011, but if he can fill the holes we have on offense and defense AND manage to keep some of our FAs, go ahead and crown him Executive of the Year, again.
Hoping to end up with about 8-10 picks before it's all said and done. Some fans want us to trade most of our draft for one or two guys, but that's not me. I think we need a little bit more help than what some people are leading on, especially if there's some roster cuts to save cap room. I think 14 picks is a bit too much, but they can always trim the fat with some 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 trades later on in the draft.

Hopefully the 49ers are able to trade Alex Smith for a 3rd round pick, which would give Baalke the chance to land 5 starting caliber players within the first 3 rounds and give him some flexibility for the rest of the draft. I think we're going to need to draft 2 defensive lineman, at least one CB, a safety (I'm hoping Whitner gets cut), potentially WR, TE, backup OLB, backup T, backup QB to compete with Tolzien depending on how free agency shakes out. I definitely would like to see them add a new PK, some have brought up Dustin Hopkins from FSU.

It's unfortunate that those late round compensation picks cannot be traded. Hopefully they find guys who can at least stick on the practice squad unlike Slowey and RoJo.
  • fryet
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  • Posts: 2,871
Keep in mind that even if we traded all of our picks to move up, we would still have a large number of picks due to comp picks which can't be traded. Now a 7th round pick isn't that valuable, but since undrafted players are making our 53 man roster, they aren't totally worthless either. I think we have about 4 undrafted on our roster, and one of them, Alex Boone, is a high quality starter. If we could get Star Lotulei by trading all of our tradeable draft picks, I would probably do it. Of course, it seems unlikely that even doing that, we would be remotely close to getting him. He would have to fall, and we would have to get a great draft pick for Alex Smith.
I doubt they'll make all their picks but you never know who can make the roster. Pats had a few years where they went trade happy and almost wasted their drafts.

Niners just have to be smart with their picks. Don't trade just to trade but don't draft guys you don't think have a legit chance to make your roster.
You left out the practice squad players.

Lamar Divens
Ricardo Lockette
Al Netter
Nate Stupar
Wayne Tribue
Kenny Wiggins

Could any of these guys take the place of some of the players who won't make the team next year? Divens has great size and Wiggins/Netter could take Leonard Davis' spot. If Grant/Gooden don't come back Stupar could take one of their spots.
It seems that there are a couple of guys in the 6th and 7th round that do make some contributions on a team. So far, Baalke has done a decent job in getting players later. He drafted Kyle Williams and Anthony Dixon in the 6th in 2010, Colin Jones in the 6th in 2011, and Bruce Miller in the 7th in 2011. The jury is still out on Cam Johnson in 2012, but I hope we use our late picks this year on guys that can make a serious impact on special teams. It's already been stated just how much we miss Blake Constanzo. One can only wonder where we would be if he was still on the team.
  • mayo49
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  • Posts: 21,302
That's why we need to package our picks and go for quality rather than quantity.
Looking at 9er draft history it appears the first year (2011) in the Baalke/Harbaugh regime was a transition time bringing in many starters or key backups.

2012: James--the only contributer this year, but several likely players in the coming year--Jenkins, Looney, Fleming and Robinson. Cam Johnson? 6/7
2011: Aldon Smith, Kaepernick, Culliver, Hunter, and Kilgore in the first five rounds and then Miller in the 7th. Quite a haul! 6/10 still on team.
2010: A Davis, Iupati, Bowman, Dixon and Williams. 5/8 still on team.

More important question may be how many late round players make the team on average?

2012: three 5-7 round players made the team or were on the injury list. Fleming may be good but we don't have a clue at this point (3/4)
2011: six picks in rounds 5-7 with Kilgore and Miller being the keepers (2/6)
2010: four picks with Williams and Dixon being the two who stuck...sort of. Not world beaters (2/4)
2009: five picks with RJF being a keeper in the 7th. Two others are still playing elsewhere (1/5)
2008: Two late picks--6th-Morgan, 7th Grant. (2/2)
2007: Two late picks--5th T Brown (1/2)
2006: Five late picks--Haralson & D Walker the keepers (2/5)
2005: Seven picks 5-7 rounds and the most similar year in breakdowns of picks to this year--two 3rds, two 5ths, four 7ths. None still on the team (0/7) but a team bereft of talent!

So, thirteen current players drafted from the 5th-7th rounds (13/35). Almost a third of the late picks over the past eigth years have contributed--in a building mode. I predict that percentage declines now that the team is complete. I would really like to see the 9ers trade up and toward next year rather than use all their lower picks.

Would be interesting to analyze, league wide, late draft pick contributions in light of won/loss records. Might be a strong correlation.
Very interesting. Thanks for the background. I too think we should package to get some guys that will play right now or the near future.

After the comp picks, I believe we'll have 4 picks in the 7th round. Trade what we can and move up or get some picks next year
  • fryet
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,871
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Looking at 9er draft history it appears the first year (2011) in the Baalke/Harbaugh regime was a transition time bringing in many starters or key backups.

2012: James--the only contributer this year, but several likely players in the coming year--Jenkins, Looney, Fleming and Robinson. Cam Johnson? 6/7
2011: Aldon Smith, Kaepernick, Culliver, Hunter, and Kilgore in the first five rounds and then Miller in the 7th. Quite a haul! 6/10 still on team.
2010: A Davis, Iupati, Bowman, Dixon and Williams. 5/8 still on team.

More important question may be how many late round players make the team on average?

2012: three 5-7 round players made the team or were on the injury list. Fleming may be good but we don't have a clue at this point (3/4)
2011: six picks in rounds 5-7 with Kilgore and Miller being the keepers (2/6)
2010: four picks with Williams and Dixon being the two who stuck...sort of. Not world beaters (2/4)
2009: five picks with RJF being a keeper in the 7th. Two others are still playing elsewhere (1/5)
2008: Two late picks--6th-Morgan, 7th Grant. (2/2)
2007: Two late picks--5th T Brown (1/2)
2006: Five late picks--Haralson & D Walker the keepers (2/5)
2005: Seven picks 5-7 rounds and the most similar year in breakdowns of picks to this year--two 3rds, two 5ths, four 7ths. None still on the team (0/7) but a team bereft of talent!

So, thirteen current players drafted from the 5th-7th rounds (13/35). Almost a third of the late picks over the past eigth years have contributed--in a building mode. I predict that percentage declines now that the team is complete. I would really like to see the 9ers trade up and toward next year rather than use all their lower picks.

Would be interesting to analyze, league wide, late draft pick contributions in light of won/loss records. Might be a strong correlation.

Most of their lower picks are comp picks, I believe, and are untradeable. I do agree that we should trade those that we can - either for a higher pick, or a pick next year.