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Baalke's chance for a masterpiece?

Originally posted by InconvenienTTruth21:
I don't think we'll get more than a 5th round pick for Alex

Alex has a very reasonable contract and many teams are desperate at QB. I think at least a 2014 second or third round pick may happen. I think the teams intent was to trade Alex for a 2014 pick since they already have like 50 picks in the 2013 draft.
[ Edited by walker807 on Jan 4, 2013 at 2:37 PM ]
If Gamble goes to the Jets as GM, and Turner goes as the OC, what are the chances the Jets make an offer for Smith?

Also, back to the main point of this thread, are the Niners better off trading up to have fewer but higher quality picks or do they have so many needs that they go BPA and maybe trade excess picks for higher picks next year?
Originally posted by Butter:
If Gamble goes to the Jets as GM, and Turner goes as the OC, what are the chances the Jets make an offer for Smith?

Also, back to the main point of this thread, are the Niners better off trading up to have fewer but higher quality picks or do they have so many needs that they go BPA and maybe trade excess picks for higher picks next year?


Honestly, I'd go all in this year and try to move up unless a team were offering something great (like a trade that would net us a 2014 1st or 2nd rounder). I'd like to get some young guys in that could compete with the backups we have now, be ready to get significant playing time, and be capable of starting.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
I think people are being unrealistically optimistic about Alex's trade value. It'd be one thing if the 49ers were planning on keeping him long-term but teams know that the 49ers are planning to dump him shortly. Why give up a high draft pick if you can wait a week or two and sign him as a free agent? If I'm a team like the Chiefs, I'm more willing to use my 2nd round pick to draft a quarterback than trade for what many will look at as a veteran stopgap.

I don't think a 2nd rounder is in the cards but an early-mid 4th rounder is quite realistic. Its high enough to reflect the value that acquiring Alex without having to negotiate or compete with other teams for his services will provide.

I agree with this post for the most part. I think depending on how many suitors Alex has will dictate what we get for him. Obviously if someone wants him bad enough then they will not chance trying to sign Alex on the open market but at best I see us getting a 3rd round pick but I could also see us getting as low as a fifth round pick for him. I don't think it will be that low but people shouldn't be surprised if it happens. Alex is a solid servicable quarterback but he is not a superstar and we are not going to get some kind of Kevin Kolb like trade for him.

It would be different if Alex was only a few years in the league and he had done what he has the last couple of seasons but Alex will be a 8 year + vet next season. We are not sneaking up on anybody and teams will know what their getting with him. A team is not going to dump anything higher than a 3rd (and thats negotiable) on him because Alex will more than likely end up on a very average to very below average team that has bigger holes to fill than giving up a high draft pick on a veteran quarterback not named Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Drew Bress, among a select other few.
[ Edited by Willisfn4life on Jan 4, 2013 at 6:40 PM ]
Worse case scenario, a team gets the Alex Smith of 2009-2010, which isn't that bad considering the team was 8-12 with him as a starter during that stretch and this is with the offensive mastermind, Mike Singletary has HC, and Jimmy Raye as OC. This same guy, under an Andy Reid, you have a team that could go 8-8 to 10-6 right out of the gate possibly. Not to mention this QB will only be 29 in May. A third round pick doesn't sound like robbery. Or perhaps their 4th + 6th since a Kansas City 3rd round pick is basically a 2nd round pick.
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
Honestly, I'd go all in this year and try to move up unless a team were offering something great (like a trade that would net us a 2014 1st or 2nd rounder). I'd like to get some young guys in that could compete with the backups we have now, be ready to get significant playing time, and be capable of starting.

That's the real question. The Niners have many needs, and no real cap space. If they let most of their FA walk, and replace their back ups with rookies, they'll cost less and they'll like get comp picks next year.

I don't think 2013 rookies will be facing the same depth this years rookies were stuck behind.

The Niners need talent/depth at DE, NT, CB, S, WR, OLB, RB, TE, OL
If a team trades for him they have a very good starting QB on the very cheap. It's a huge advantage. Signing him on the open market will cost considerably more.
Originally posted by Butter:
I updated the picks based on current projections of the compensatory picks and the rumored Chiefs deal.

----------------------original message------------------------------

The 2013 off season could be Balke's chance to really position the Niners exceptionally well for the future.

Alex Smith trade? I am going to take the optimistic approach and assume the Niners will trade him for a 2 or 3rd round pick:

TD-INT QB Rating
John Skelton 2-9 55.4 Cardinals
Matt Cassel 6-12 66.7 Chiefs
Mark Sanchez 13-17 67.9 Jets
Michael Vick 11-9 79.2 Eagles
Nick Foles 5-4 77.6 Eagles
Ryan Fitz. 22-15 83.5 Bills
Phillip Rivers 22-15 86 Chargers
Alex Smith 13-5 104.1 49ers

In a system with a strong defense and running game, Alex can be a significant improvement for almost all of these teams. Philly may choose to roll the dice on Foles and a veteran back up. The Chargers will likely try to improve the O-line to give Rivers another shot. If the Jets get half a chance, I think Rex Ryan would love to have Smith over Sanchez.
So lets go conservative and say its a 3rd rounder from the Chiefs...

If I plan for best/worst case scenario regarding the Niners overall draft position, lets just aspire that the Niners win the Super Bowl and the Niners get the 32 pick. It's impossible to predict exactly what the actual picks are for all teams mentioned, but assuming this puts us into the ball park.

The Niners start with:
round/pick - trade chart points
1/31 - 600
2/34 - 570 (projected Chiefs pick, Alex Smith)
2/61 - 292
3/74 - 220 (Panthers)
3/93 - 128
4/127 - 45
4th - (projected compensatory pick)
5/152 - 31 (Colts)
5/159 - 38
6/173 - 23 (Miami)
6/191 - 15
7/ 213 - 7 (Cincinnati - Taylor Mays)
7/224 - 2
7th - (projected compensatory pick)
7th - (projected compensatory pick)
Total points - 1940

There is no way the Niners use 16 picks. Balke has already shown that he's willing to target a player and move up in the draft. Also, I think its likely that the Niner's trade out of some of these picks for future picks. What can Balke and crew do with all of these? I think its very likely that they Niners move up and/or out of many of these picks.

Now that the Alex Smith saga is rumored to be agreed on, what do we project Balke will do with all of these picks?

Originally, I was targeting a trade up scenario, but the more I learn about the 2nd and 3rd round depth, the more I hope the Niners bunch as many picks in the 2nd and 3rd as possible. I would really like to see them use their later picks to move up in those 2nd and 3rd rounds. All of that is compounded with the rumors of Darrell Revis. I have VERY mixed feelings about paying any one player that much money.

Bottom line, this draft may very well define Baalke's time as GM. It is unthinkable that he would ever have this current situation again. With a Super Bowl contending team, possibly 15 draft picks, and a tricky salary cap situation, what would fans consider to be a "masterpiece" from Balke and his staff?
Baalke's masterpiece was 2 years ago, but I am up for a sequel.

Hard to tell, but I think they are more likely to trade out/down then to trade up. The late 1st early 2nd puts them in similar situations to where the 9ers were when they traded up for Kaep. I remember in an interview they tried trading up to the end of the 1st for him but the price was too steep, hopefully other teams will bite. Move down a little and pick up the same round pick in next year's draft.

The Pats gave a nice blueprint on building a contender and now we are in the driver seat to execute.
[ Edited by LottOfDefense on Feb 27, 2013 at 10:12 PM ]
A masterpiece would be not using any of our top pick to trade for Revis. Especially if he is gonna be one and done. I would like to see 2 DL, CB, Safety and WR in the first 2 days.
Originally posted by Butter:
Now that the Alex Smith saga is rumored to be agreed on, what do we project Balke will do with all of these picks?

Originally, I was targeting a trade up scenario, but the more I learn about the 2nd and 3rd round depth, the more I hope the Niners bunch as many picks in the 2nd and 3rd as possible. I would really like to see them use their later picks to move up in those 2nd and 3rd rounds. All of that is compounded with the rumors of Darrell Revis. I have VERY mixed feelings about paying any one player that much money.

Bottom line, this draft may very well define Baalke's time as GM. It is unthinkable that he would ever have this current situation again. With a Super Bowl contending team, possibly 15 draft picks, and a tricky salary cap situation, what would fans consider to be a "masterpiece" from Balke and his staff?

I agree with using their late round picks to move up. I think this draft could be special. We could possibly have 5 picks in the 1st 3 round and 10 picks at 4th-7th. I think we need quality rotation that could be future starters. Harbaalke have their guys picked out and they're in a great postion with all the late picks to get whoever they want with the picks in the 1st-3rd rounds. They did this in 2011 when they targeted kaep and smith.
This link shows all projected picks by team:

http://www.gbnreport.com/picksbyteam.html

Most of these teams only have 5 picks, including 7th rounders:

Carolina: 1/14, 2/44, 4th, 5th, 6th
Chicago: 1/20, 2/50, 4th, 5th, 6th
Indianapolis: 1/24, 3/86, 4th, 6th, 7th
New Orleans: 1/15, 3/75, 4th, 5th, 6th
Oakland: 1/3, 3/66, 4th, 6th, 7th, 7th

Here are two examples of the types of trades I'd like to see the Niner's make:

Niners Trade #1:
3/93 - 128 pts
5/152 - 31 pts
Total = 159
Colts Trade:
3/86 = 160 pts
I don't even care if the Niners throw in a extra 7th rounder. The Colts need bodies. They move down a bit to regain their lost 5th rounder.

Niners trade #2
4/127 = 45
5/159 = 28
6.172 = 23
7/213 = 6
total =102
Raiders trade
4/99 = 104
I don't know if the Raiders would take on that many draft picks, but that'd offer much more value to the Niners.
Originally posted by Butter:
This link shows all projected picks by team:

http://www.gbnreport.com/picksbyteam.html

Most of these teams only have 5 picks, including 7th rounders:

Carolina: 1/14, 2/44, 4th, 5th, 6th
Chicago: 1/20, 2/50, 4th, 5th, 6th
Indianapolis: 1/24, 3/86, 4th, 6th, 7th
New Orleans: 1/15, 3/75, 4th, 5th, 6th
Oakland: 1/3, 3/66, 4th, 6th, 7th, 7th

Here are two examples of the types of trades I'd like to see the Niner's make:

Niners Trade #1:
3/93 - 128 pts
5/152 - 31 pts
Total = 159
Colts Trade:
3/86 = 160 pts
I don't even care if the Niners throw in a extra 7th rounder. The Colts need bodies. They move down a bit to regain their lost 5th rounder.

Niners trade #2
4/127 = 45
5/159 = 28
6.172 = 23
7/213 = 6
total =102
Raiders trade
4/99 = 104
I don't know if the Raiders would take on that many draft picks, but that'd offer much more value to the Niners.

I definitely see where you are going. But once you get outside of the top 100 players or so, doesn't it get very subjective as to the value of a player? It only makes sense if the value outweighs the pick. For example, if Lattimore is there at 104, I could see a move like this.
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
I definitely see where you are going. But once you get outside of the top 100 players or so, doesn't it get very subjective as to the value of a player? It only makes sense if the value outweighs the pick. For example, if Lattimore is there at 104, I could see a move like this.


Absolutely. At this point, it's all speculation. This just gives me a basic frame work to play with. Ultimately, it just depends on what two teams can agree to. I think if you went back and tracked Baalke's moves, it probably ended up with some higher "points" value coming back. In the last several years, Baalke seems to be the most creative after the 3rd round regarding moving down and positioning for future picks.
Originally posted by E-49er:
A masterpiece would be not using any of our top pick to trade for Revis. Especially if he is gonna be one and done. I would like to see 2 DL, CB, Safety and WR in the first 2 days.

this