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Baalke's chance for a masterpiece?

i think jets would be smart to go after alex smith. they have a good D and if they draft a good RB and WR would be a pretty good team. if they get vick it will be another disaster in NY but knowing NY's hunger for media attention they will probably pick a vick
  • IT21
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I don't think we'll get more than a 5th round pick for Alex
Originally posted by Butter:
Alex Smith
5/160 - 27 (Niners)
7/224 - 2 (Niners)
traded for
2/34 - 570 (Chiefs)

1/32 - 590 (Niners)
2/64 - 270 (Niners)
6/173 - 22 (Niners from Miami)
6/192 - 15 traded for
1/18 - 904

1/18 - 901
2/34 - 570 (Chiefs)
3/70 - 240 (Panthers)
3/96 - 116
3/97 - comp pick (cannot be traded)
4/128 - 44
5/152 - 31 (Colts)
Total points - 1786

So the original intent of this thread was to speculate about Baalke's draft day trades. Specifically, the possible 13+ draft picks that the Niners may have. Any thoughts on draft day moves? Trading up, or moving picks for future picks?
I could Alex smith and our first round and maybe a 3-7 pick being traded for a 6-20 overall pick.
We dont need all the pick we have and they should be used as leverage.
This scenario would allow the teams not picking a qb in the first round but still need one (bills,cards,jets) to get a more than capable starter and still be able to draft first round talent.
We all want one of those Dline studs and this would allow us to pick one.
I dont think we need to trade up tho but im sure the staff has someone picked out they would.want to trade up for.
Originally posted by InconvenienTTruth21:
I don't think we'll get more than a 5th round pick for Alex


I'm going with a 3rd rounder from Buffalo. Alex is still young, cheap and experienced. I don't think teams sit back and wait for Alex to hit the open market. Arizona traded a talented CB and a second rounder for Kevin Kolb. Alex has more credentials than Kolb.
Originally posted by Butter:
The 2013 off season could be Balke's chance to really position the Niners exceptionally well for the future.

Alex Smith trade? I am going to take the optimistic approach and assume the Niners will trade him for a 2 or 3rd round pick:

TD-INT QB Rating
John Skelton 2-9 55.4 Cardinals
Matt Cassel 6-12 66.7 Chiefs
Mark Sanchez 13-17 67.9 Jets
Michael Vick 11-9 79.2 Eagles
Nick Foles 5-4 77.6 Eagles
Ryan Fitz. 22-15 83.5 Bills
Phillip Rivers 22-15 86 Chargers
Alex Smith 13-5 104.1 49ers

In a system with a strong defense and running game, Alex can be a significant improvement for almost all of these teams. Philly may choose to roll the dice on Foles and a veteran back up. The Chargers will likely try to improve the O-line to give Rivers another shot. If the Jets get half a chance, I think Rex Ryan would love to have Smith over Sanchez.
So lets go conservative and say its a 3rd rounder from the Chiefs...



If I plan for best/worst case scenario regarding the Niners overall draft position, lets just aspire that the Niners win the Super Bowl and the Niners get the 32 pick. It's impossible to predict exactly what the actual picks are for all teams mentioned, but assuming this puts us into the ball park.

The Niners start with:
round/pick - trade chart points
1/32 - 590
2/64 - 270
3/70 - 240 (Panthers)
3/96 - 116
3/97 - comp pick (cannot be traded)
4/128 - 44
5/152 - 31 (Colts)
5/160 - 27
6/173 - 22 (Miami)
6/192 - 15
7/ 212 - 7 (Cincinnati - Taylor Mays)
7/224 - 2
Total points - 1376

There is no way the Niners use 13 picks. Balke has already shown that he's willing to target a player and move up in the draft. Also, I think its likely that the Niner's trade out of some of these picks for future picks. What can Balke and crew do with all of these? I think its very likely that they Niners move up and/or out of many of these picks.
Alex will be waived/cut
Originally posted by InconvenienTTruth21:
I don't think we'll get more than a 5th round pick for Alex

I was thinking 4th round is about right. If the 49ers essentially DIDN'T have to cut him, they could leverage it into something better but teams won't pay a lot if they think there's a chance they can get him outright for nothing. A 4th for the convenience of not having to negotiate and compete for his services sounds just about right.
  • IT21
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Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by InconvenienTTruth21:
I don't think we'll get more than a 5th round pick for Alex

I was thinking 4th round is about right. If the 49ers essentially DIDN'T have to cut him, they could leverage it into something better but teams won't pay a lot if they think there's a chance they can get him outright for nothing. A 4th for the convenience of not having to negotiate and compete for his services sounds just about right.

Exactly, there's no point of teams offering 2nd or 3rd rounders when they can just wait for us to cut him cause they know were going to cut him.
Similar situation with Peyton Manning last year but obviously with a better player and more money. If the Colts cut him by a certain date they saved 20 mill, if we cut Alex by a certain date we get rid of his whole contract.

I wouldn't be surprised if we just straight up cut Alex and let him go wherever he wants to, just to be a little more helpful to Alex seems like something Baalke and Harbaugh would do.
Originally posted by InconvenienTTruth21:
Exactly, there's no point of teams offering 2nd or 3rd rounders when they can just wait for us to cut him cause they know were going to cut him.
Similar situation with Peyton Manning last year but obviously with a better player and more money. If the Colts cut him by a certain date they saved 20 mill, if we cut Alex by a certain date we get rid of his whole contract.

I wouldn't be surprised if we just straight up cut Alex and let him go wherever he wants to, just to be a little more helpful to Alex seems like something Baalke and Harbaugh would do.

That's something you do with an old veteran on his last legs, not a young QB in his prime. 49ers don't have to cut Alex until a bit further into the offseason It would be downright shameful for the 49ers to not extract some form of compensation for Alex in a year where there are no true franchise QB's in the draft and the free agent market is extremely feeble. Even if you only extract a 4th or 5th rounder, you can utilize that to trade up or gain picks in a later year.

While I don't see the 49ers getting a 2013 2nd or 3rd rounder for Alex, I wouldn't be all too shocked to see them get a 2014 2nd or 3rd rounder, which might even be more likely.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by InconvenienTTruth21:
Exactly, there's no point of teams offering 2nd or 3rd rounders when they can just wait for us to cut him cause they know were going to cut him.
Similar situation with Peyton Manning last year but obviously with a better player and more money. If the Colts cut him by a certain date they saved 20 mill, if we cut Alex by a certain date we get rid of his whole contract.

I wouldn't be surprised if we just straight up cut Alex and let him go wherever he wants to, just to be a little more helpful to Alex seems like something Baalke and Harbaugh would do.

That's something you do with an old veteran on his last legs, not a young QB in his prime. 49ers don't have to cut Alex until a bit further into the offseason It would be downright shameful for the 49ers to not extract some form of compensation for Alex in a year where there are no true franchise QB's in the draft and the free agent market is extremely feeble. Even if you only extract a 4th or 5th rounder, you can utilize that to trade up or gain picks in a later year.

While I don't see the 49ers getting a 2013 2nd or 3rd rounder for Alex, I wouldn't be all too shocked to see them get a 2014 2nd or 3rd rounder, which might even be more likely.

Yup and I could see the Raiders being a good trade partner, he has Bay Area roots.

Swap first rounders wuth the Raiders and trade Alex with some lower round picks: since there are no franchise QB's at the top of the draft the Raiders get their starting QB, the Niners need an impact player more than a basket of draft picks, the Raiders recover some more picks in the deal that they lost in the Palmer deal and are in position to fill their needs on both sides of the ball.
would you eat his million dollar bonus to hold onto him longer, in hopes of getting a 3rd of 4th in a trade?
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
I think people are being unrealistically optimistic about Alex's trade value. It'd be one thing if the 49ers were planning on keeping him long-term but teams know that the 49ers are planning to dump him shortly. Why give up a high draft pick if you can wait a week or two and sign him as a free agent? If I'm a team like the Chiefs, I'm more willing to use my 2nd round pick to draft a quarterback than trade for what many will look at as a veteran stopgap.

I don't think a 2nd rounder is in the cards but an early-mid 4th rounder is quite realistic. Its high enough to reflect the value that acquiring Alex without having to negotiate or compete with other teams for his services will provide.
i think he'll have trade value, if they wait til hes cut he has the option of going where he wants, if they make the trade they get him for sure. im not sure but i think i saw that it was a really weak year for FA qbs so alex will have even more value. the guy has over 100 passer rating and has been playing lights out before harbaugh pulled him for kaep.
Originally posted by ninergold:
would you eat his million dollar bonus to hold onto him longer, in hopes of getting a 3rd of 4th in a trade?

Pay a million bucks to pick up an extra 3rd or 4th rounder? Sure.
I think you may be shocked by how high a draft choice alex smith may bring. With new GM's and coaches looking to to make a move to fix the QB problem they have, and a very weak draft class, the 49ers may be able to put out a smoke screen about keeping alex then finding some team desperate enough to over pay with a high draft choice. 2nd for sure but maybe a first. perhaps a 2014 first. Maybe i over value alex but i think he will be the highest ranked QB available this offseaon. A very good year to have a QB available to trade. Geno smith? mike vick? tim teabow?? ryan fitzpatrick? Flynn? I'd take alex....
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
That's something you do with an old veteran on his last legs, not a young QB in his prime. 49ers don't have to cut Alex until a bit further into the offseason It would be downright shameful for the 49ers to not extract some form of compensation for Alex in a year where there are no true franchise QB's in the draft and the free agent market is extremely feeble. Even if you only extract a 4th or 5th rounder, you can utilize that to trade up or gain picks in a later year.

While I don't see the 49ers getting a 2013 2nd or 3rd rounder for Alex, I wouldn't be all too shocked to see them get a 2014 2nd or 3rd rounder, which might even be more likely.

I agree and am a little more optimistic about the 3rd. A few people are saying teams can wait until Alex is cut and sign him. I'm not understanding the reasoning. They can sit and wait and end up having to pay Alex Smith 10-12 million, or trade a 3rd rounder and get him for 8 for the next two seasons? They can also still draft a young QB to develop as insurance. We also have to remember what the Cardinals traded for Kevin Kolb, how the Seahawks were willing to pay a boatload for Matt Flynn who had ONE good game, and didn't the Raiders trade a 1st round pick for Carson Palmer (who didn't play for a full season)?

Recent history says it isn't totally unrealistic to get a 3rd round pick and on the off chance there is some team willing to pay too much, we could get a 2nd.