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Baalke's chance for a masterpiece?

I updated the picks based on current projections of the compensatory picks and the rumored Chiefs deal.

----------------------original message------------------------------

The 2013 off season could be Balke's chance to really position the Niners exceptionally well for the future.

Alex Smith trade? I am going to take the optimistic approach and assume the Niners will trade him for a 2 or 3rd round pick:

TD-INT QB Rating
John Skelton 2-9 55.4 Cardinals
Matt Cassel 6-12 66.7 Chiefs
Mark Sanchez 13-17 67.9 Jets
Michael Vick 11-9 79.2 Eagles
Nick Foles 5-4 77.6 Eagles
Ryan Fitz. 22-15 83.5 Bills
Phillip Rivers 22-15 86 Chargers
Alex Smith 13-5 104.1 49ers

In a system with a strong defense and running game, Alex can be a significant improvement for almost all of these teams. Philly may choose to roll the dice on Foles and a veteran back up. The Chargers will likely try to improve the O-line to give Rivers another shot. If the Jets get half a chance, I think Rex Ryan would love to have Smith over Sanchez.
So lets go conservative and say its a 3rd rounder from the Chiefs...

If I plan for best/worst case scenario regarding the Niners overall draft position, lets just aspire that the Niners win the Super Bowl and the Niners get the 32 pick. It's impossible to predict exactly what the actual picks are for all teams mentioned, but assuming this puts us into the ball park.

The Niners start with:
round/pick - trade chart points
1/31 - 600
2/34 - 570 (projected Chiefs pick, Alex Smith)
2/61 - 292
3/74 - 220 (Panthers)
3/93 - 128
4/127 - 45
4th - (projected compensatory pick)
5/152 - 31 (Colts)
5/159 - 38
6/173 - 23 (Miami)
6/191 - 15
7/ 213 - 7 (Cincinnati - Taylor Mays)
7/224 - 2
7th - (projected compensatory pick)
7th - (projected compensatory pick)
Total points - 1940

There is no way the Niners use 16 picks. Balke has already shown that he's willing to target a player and move up in the draft. Also, I think its likely that the Niner's trade out of some of these picks for future picks. What can Balke and crew do with all of these? I think its very likely that they Niners move up and/or out of many of these picks.
[ Edited by Butter on Feb 27, 2013 at 9:52 PM ]
I don't think many. But a couple, yes certainly if we can find trading partners. But we do have needs and the salary cap is likely to exert serious pressure.

Future of this team rests in the draft, with Baalke and the scouts.
Originally posted by English:
I don't think many. But a couple, yes certainly if we can find trading partners. But we do have needs and the salary cap is likely to exert serious pressure.

Future of this team rests in the draft, with Baalke and the scouts.

This. I do see some roster moves that will surprise people for sure that has to do all about the salary cap for the team.
Alex Smith
5/160 - 27 (Niners)
7/224 - 2 (Niners)
traded for
2/34 - 570 (Chiefs)

1/32 - 590 (Niners)
2/64 - 270 (Niners)
6/173 - 22 (Niners from Miami)
6/192 - 15 traded for
1/18 - 904

1/18 - 901
2/34 - 570 (Chiefs)
3/70 - 240 (Panthers)
3/96 - 116
3/97 - comp pick (cannot be traded)
4/128 - 44
5/152 - 31 (Colts)
Total points - 1786
[ Edited by Butter on Dec 23, 2012 at 7:32 AM ]
I think people are being unrealistically optimistic about Alex's trade value. It'd be one thing if the 49ers were planning on keeping him long-term but teams know that the 49ers are planning to dump him shortly. Why give up a high draft pick if you can wait a week or two and sign him as a free agent? If I'm a team like the Chiefs, I'm more willing to use my 2nd round pick to draft a quarterback than trade for what many will look at as a veteran stopgap.

I don't think a 2nd rounder is in the cards but an early-mid 4th rounder is quite realistic. Its high enough to reflect the value that acquiring Alex without having to negotiate or compete with other teams for his services will provide.
Originally posted by tohara3:
This. I do see some roster moves that will surprise people for sure that has to do all about the salary cap for the team.

I think this team will continue to rack up compensatory picks as free agents leave, the key is going to be to identify the people you most likely won't re-sign, because realistically they won't be able to re-sign everyone.
couple things, like said I dont see a 2nd rd as value for Alex, maybe lower 2nd. 2. Jones' pick from Panthers is in 2014, and 3. the 2nd rd pick for us will be 2 pick up, since NO and CLE dont have picks in rd 2.
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
couple things, like said I dont see a 2nd rd as value for Alex, maybe lower 2nd. 2. Jones' pick from Panthers is in 2014, and 3. the 2nd rd pick for us will be 2 pick up, since NO and CLE dont have picks in rd 2.

Thanks, I think I fixed the draft picks.

Regarding the specific pick numbers, I'll edit them when they finalize the order. At this point, its just an attempt get in the ball park.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
I think people are being unrealistically optimistic about Alex's trade value. It'd be one thing if the 49ers were planning on keeping him long-term but teams know that the 49ers are planning to dump him shortly. Why give up a high draft pick if you can wait a week or two and sign him as a free agent? If I'm a team like the Chiefs, I'm more willing to use my 2nd round pick to draft a quarterback than trade for what many will look at as a veteran stopgap.

I don't think a 2nd rounder is in the cards but an early-mid 4th rounder is quite realistic. Its high enough to reflect the value that acquiring Alex without having to negotiate or compete with other teams for his services will provide.

I think it depends on what a team feels is available. By all accounts the draft is weak in regard to QB's and the FA market doesn't appear to be much better. I think a team is likely to part with a 3rd to ensure they get the best available option for this particular offseason. Alex is the perfect mid term stop gap vet. He can lead a team for 2-3 years and allows a team the flexibility of waiting a season or two on the QB they desire while still moving forward as an offense. Alex is also a good tutor as well, so a desirable vet to have around a young QB.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
I think people are being unrealistically optimistic about Alex's trade value. It'd be one thing if the 49ers were planning on keeping him long-term but teams know that the 49ers are planning to dump him shortly. Why give up a high draft pick if you can wait a week or two and sign him as a free agent? If I'm a team like the Chiefs, I'm more willing to use my 2nd round pick to draft a quarterback than trade for what many will look at as a veteran stopgap.

I don't think a 2nd rounder is in the cards but an early-mid 4th rounder is quite realistic. Its high enough to reflect the value that acquiring Alex without having to negotiate or compete with other teams for his services will provide.

I think it is all a question of supply and demand. For teams like the Chiefs and Jets who saw their QB throw an inordinate amount interceptions, I think Alex will be very appealing. In this scenario, Kapernick's development behind Smith is also a bit of a selling point. If a team like the Chief's drafts Geno #1 overall, is he likely to be another Cam Newton or RGIII? Or, would he be better off getting a chance to develop behind Smith for a bit?

I think you do raise a valid point though. Maybe a 2nd is too high. I'd be a bit disappointed if they get something lower than a 3rd though.
Re: Alex trade... I'd rather have a 2014 2nd than a 2013 3rd rd.

Something that may be realistic is swapping late picks for mid rd picks and getting a conditional pick in 2014.

Something like:

SF gives:
Alex Smith
2013 6th Rd pick (SF slot)


KC gives:
2013 4th rd pick
2014 2nd or 3rd rd pick (dependent on Smith performance)

Of course when thinking about this i go back to the Kevin Kolb trade. The Cardinals gave up a solid young corner and a 2nd rd pick for an inexperienced QB they had to resign (and resigned him to more money than Alex is signed to). Man i wish we can get a deal like that.
Don't think you'll get a second rounder, 4th or 5th may be more realistic. There is never much trading in the NFL and unless you're the Raiders draft picks are almost untouchable.
I thought we couldn't trade Alex before his money is due, so...we probably wont get anything for him, just another person thats gonna get cut.
AB, who is ultimate cap wizard for the 9ers, and has done well in assessing values in upcoming drafts, and Butter, who I don't know much about, both seem to think alex is worth a 2nd at best, or maybe a 3rd. We all know what alex needs:
#1) a steady hand at HC/QB coach and OC, who will be there over the long haul.
#2) a very good OL that can protect him longer than 2-3 seconds.
#3) at least one very good receiver, TE or WR, or receiving RB, who can be counted on to catch a well thrown ball.

Look around at Chiefs, Jets, Eagles, Bills, Cards, JAX, and you don't see a lot of #1, not much of #2, and again, not much of #3, a receiver. Ergo, no matter where alex goes to one of these poor teams, I don't think his chances for excelling or doing well are very high. I suspect the above teams are somewhat aware of that also, but nobody could know that for sure. Nobody has mentioned it, but having alex here as the backup/starter is a HUGE advantage for 49ers going into the playoffs. Lose your QB in playoffs, and you lose your next game. So having alex is a monster advantage for the 9ers at present. He could definitely take us to and win the SB.

That brings up the possibility of a well placed team, (maybe Ravens, Steelers...heck, anybody with a good team who has to have a back up at QB that is ready to play at a high NFL level) being in the market for alex, altho in this case a good team is not going to pony up $7, 8 or $9 mil. to have a backup starting qb. Nor are they going to get alex as backup for a #1 pick. It does remain a possibility tho, that alex COULD go to a SB ready team.

Whether a lesser team or a SB ready team is interested in alex, his trade value after end of season could vary as much as a 1st rd player to maybe a 3rd rd. For the poorer teams, his value could be in the 1st rd range. Unfortunately, he would help those teams least, as they won't have the OL, HC/QB coach , OC, nor receivers that alex needs to play at his best level of Qb. Hence, a SB ready team with a QB with health issues, eg, (steelers) might just be perfect spot for alex.

For desperate teams, trading for alex before he is cut loose or has his bonus signing paid, the chances of getting alex for certain are much higher if he is traded from the 9ers. It would cut down having to go into a bidding war where one of the 6 teams noted above will win and 5 will lose..Factor that in and I could see alex going for player we really need (say a starter on OL, DL, CB, WR) or I could see a #1 pick being traded for alex. There are somewhere between 8-10 very good Qbs in league, and of those 6 are superb(eli, peyton, brady, brees,RG 3, Luck), and alex is QB just below that group. How some can say alex can't or won't bring a 1st rd pick with his numbers and record, is beyond me. I think we are looking at a #1 pick for alex or a trade for a starter at one of slots listed above. Of the 8-10 teams that just HAVE TO HAVE a starting Qb, somebody is going to go out on a limb and get alex at a very favorable trade with us. Look at Matt flynn in SEA, and he isn't even starting. Somebody has already set his sights on alex and is not going to take a chance of losing an established top 6-8 QB in the league. That team is going to pony up a #1 pick.

So to AB and Butter, altho I understand where you are coming from, I believe you are under rating what a desperate team( like the Jets, maybe), will be willing to do to get alex. Remember, whereas this past yr was chuck full of top flite QBs(luck, RG3, SEA's williams), this yr is a different story. That all will factor into what a desperate team will be willing to do to get alex. I look for him to be traded for a #1 pick virtually the moment the SB ends. I could make a case for a bidding war in trading for him also. I say he is a lock for a #1 pick in a trade. None of the desperate teams can take a chance in losing him in a bidding war if released by 9ers.
  • fip24
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Originally posted by RishikeshA:
Don't think you'll get a second rounder, 4th or 5th may be more realistic. There is never much trading in the NFL and unless you're the Raiders draft picks are almost untouchable.


You never know. The Raider deal was a joke but does prove that you only need1 team to overpay. A late 2nd or 3rd may be realistic. It all depends on the offensive philosophy of the team. Alex has more vaule to a defensive team like the Jets than he would to an aggressive offensive like SD.
Who knows..maybe Alex with our first 3rd and 5th gets us a high 2nd?