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Originally posted by niners9:
Good job, heres my two cents. I agree with your players gone list. the only one i could see coming back is Moss. but he will want to play with a team that passes more often if he does not retire.
as far as players gone we disagree on some of them. There is a possibility of Alex getting cut. However it depends on how far we get this season. Is he a Pro Bowl QB, no. But he is a quality starter and can lead this team, he does what we need him to do. I wont be upset reguardless of whether he stays or goes. Rogers is a possibility but I would be surprised to see him cut he is still a legit starter and our pass D is good this year. Whitner I dont think will or should be cut, he is worht 5 mil a year. Akers however may be cut. His great year last year may have cut his career a little short.
I agree with most of your re-sign. I haven't always been the biggest Goldson fan, but he is a beast. RJF and Cox deserve to be re-sign as well but for cheap. I don't think Walker and Grant will re-sign, they will go somewhere to compete for a starting job.
When it comes to extending I will disagree with both. Bowman is worth the 50 mil. But we have that much invested in Willis, although most of that is gone this year (17 mil cap hit for 2012). That is to much for one position when we could spend it other positions on defense like the DL. Williams is a good player but his numbers aren't good enough for 5 yr 15 mil. we only gave manningham a 2 yr 7 mil deal. I say a 2 yr 4mil for williams.
Problem is with Akers that there isn't many FA kickers to be this offseason. Phil Dawson and Mike Nugent are 2 I believe, but thats about it.
Whitner I agree with. Cox is signed for 2013, he will be a RFA in 2014 offseason.
Gooden is more likely to re-sign than Grant is, he may bolt for money and more playing time.
RJF should be kept around, he is a solid DE/NT.
Extensions wise, Justin Smith is first, that way we create cap room, then Whitner, Akers, and possibly Goodwin, he has been playing really good lately.
Cut Haralson. Re-Sign Brock and McBath on 1yr deals worth minimum for camp purposes.
Rogers will be a tough one, can be cut and possibly designated for june 1, but the cap room wont be available until june 1st.
Alex is a possibility. Other extensions, Bowman, Brown, Iupati, A.Davis, Manningham, Williams and Crabtree all should be looked at, some should be extended this year and then next year along with Aldon, Culliver, Hunter, Kilgore and Kaep.
Goldson this offseason if price is right, and is a good cap friendly deal.
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Here is a better look at future years. I wrote this in the cap room as of november 1st thread in NFL Talk
Right now for 2014 season we have $85,250,836 committed in player salaries for 28 players. If the cap is only $122M as it has been hinted at, we have $36,749,164 in cap room. Now say we extend J.Smith, Whitner and Akers all through at least 2014. Below is the extensions I would do.
Justin Smith: He has a $7.5M Base in 2013, extend and lower down to $940k, and extend him through 2015, which would be an extra 3 seasons he would be a 49er, and may be inline for retiring. We convert the left over base of $6.56M into a signing bonus over 3 seasons, which would be around $2,186,666, we would have saved $4,373,334 in 2013 cap room. Could be more if we extend through 2016, but lets say 3 more years.
I would think this would be his base salaries.
2013- $940K + 2,186,666 = $3.126.666, plus his $500K workout bonus would be $3,626,666
2014- $3,500,000 + $2,186,666 = $5,686,666
2015 - $6,500,000 + $2,186,666 = $8,686,666
Total value: 3yr $17,981,998 (I would bump it up to around $18.25M with extra workout bonus).
We could guaranteed his 2013 and 2015 base salaries, 2013 since he lowered it down and 2015 to make him feel secured. Also guarantee his workout bonus in 2013.
Donte Whitner- He has a $3.75M base salary, and lowered down to $840K(Minimum for his time accrued), and extended through 2015, his bonus would end being $2.91M prorated over 3 seasons at $970K, saving us $1.84M in cap room in 2013. Now lets have his salaries below.
2013- $940K base, $250K workout, $833,333 previous Bonus and new bonus $970K = $2,993,333
2014- $2M base, $250K workout, $970K bonus = $3.22M
2015- $3M base, $250K workout, $970K bonus = $4.22M
Total Value: 3yr $10.433.333
We would guarantee his 2013 base and workout bonus.
David Akers – He has a $3M base salary, down to $940K, convert into a $2.06M bonus, prorated over 3 seasons at $686,666, Saving us $1,373,334. Below is new contract.
2013 - $940K base, $686,666 new bonus, $566,667 old bonus, and $50K incentive = $2,243,333
2014- $1.5M base, $686,666 and $50K incentive = $2,236,666
2015 - $2.5M base, $686,666 and $50K = $3,236,666
Total Value: 3yr $7,716,665
Now those 3 total $11,243,332 in 2014 cap room, and save us $7,586,668 in 2013 cap room. Plus cut Haralson($2.87M savings) and Goodwin($4.35M savings), gives us $14,806,668 in cap room, plus $3.5M gives us total of $18,306,668 to work with.
Lets say we use $5M on draftees, lets assume $5M for those picks in 2014, probably less, as we wont use all of our picks.
That now for 2013 and 2014, gives us $13,306,668 for 2013 cap room, and with $11,243,332 plus $5M, we would have now $20,505,832 in 2014 cap room.
Now we get into extensions for Goldson first. I would do this, 2015 I would load up for Goldson, right now we have $72,663,091 in cap room(yes that much), for only 13 players signed, now add in $16,143,332 for Justin Smith, Whitner and Akers extensions we have $56,519,759 in cap room before any new extensions, and lets add an extra $15M for 2013 picks, leaves us $41,519,759 under cap.
I'll explain 2014 draftees and effect on 2014 cap in a minute.
Goldson's deal would be loaded for 2015. I would do a fair deal, 5yr $35M deal, $7M average, which is fair value for a hard hitting, but not great in coverage FS. I would make it so we used up around $4M in 2013 cap room, $6M in 2014, $8.5M in 2015, then in last 2 years $8.25M each. Of course I would give him a nice signing bonus so he has that money up front, but prorated for cap purposes.
That would put us like this for each season
2013 - $9,306,668 in cap room
2014 - $14,505,832 in cap room
2015 - $33,019,759 in cap room
Now draftees. We will likely have less picks in 2014, we do own Carolina's 7th, but not a major hit on cap room there. Lets say $3M for 2014 picks, plus $3M again for those picks in 2015 cap. Now leaves us $11,505,832 under 2014 cap and $30,019,759 under 2015 cap.
Bowman is next. We would do his deal in 2014 offseason IMO, helps cap wise.
We give him 5yr $45M deal, with $20M guaranteed.
Breakdown like this, 2014 would be $5M, 2015 would be the big year, like Goldson is, $9M, 2015 would be $10M, 2016 and 2017 would be $12M each. Those last 2 years are when the cap should jump up, plus we have like 5 players signed right now for that year.
That now effects the 2014 and 2015 cap this way.
2014 - $6,505,832 under (But we have Goldson, Bowman and 2013 AND 2014 picks signed)
2015 - $21,019,759 under
Now 2015 draft wise, say $4M at most, leaves us under by $17,019,759 for 2015.
We would have done in 2 offseasons, Goldson, Bowman, Justin Smith, Whitner and Akers all extended, plus 2 years of draft picks. Plus we still have $9.3M for 2013 offseason to sign some of our FAs. We can also in 2015 offseason do this.
Extend Mike Iupati, Anthony Davis and Aldon Smith.
Iupati around 5yr $35M ($7M average)
Davis around 4yr $25M ($6.25M average)
Aldon around 6yr $60M ($10M average)
I wont go deep into the contracts, just for cap wise, we would use around lets say $3M for Iupati, $4M for Davis and $8M for Aldon, so shave off $15M off that 21M, down to $6M in cap room. Of course the way Baalke and Marathe do contracts, they would structure them more back loaded for 2016 and 2017. So maybe 4M less in 2015, so we have $10M in cap room.
Basically it can be done. We would probably need to decide in 2014 offseason on Mario Manningham or Tarell Brown. Possibly we can keep both if they are willing to sign long term, 4 yr deals, loaded in 2016, maybe shave only $4M at most off 2014 cap room. Then we would have kept these guys together.
2015 offseason needs to decide on Crabtree, Miller, Hunter, Culliver and Kaepernick.
We could see Kaep era start by then, meaning Alex is gone after 2014, or before, would save $9.25M to cut Alex before 2014 begins, giving us power to extend Crabtree or someone else earlier.
Guys signed long term then.
We would have re-signed the following in 3 offseasons.
Kaep, Hunter, Miller, Culliver, Bowman, Aldon, A.Davis, Iupati, Mario, Brown, possibly Crabtree if we decide to cut Alex. Whitner, J.Smith and Akers.
All In all, it is possible, very possible, and it will be tight, not just in SF but everywhere. So we may see some guys take less money to stay and win a title.