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Draft Grades: Kiper and others

Originally posted by mike:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Originally posted by 9erred:
Originally posted by jreff22:
It was a weird draft. The play at OG will be a determining factor on how to grade this.


I disagree, the draft will be evaluated on if the Niners offense improves on gaining more yards, first downs, and TD's over field goals. CLEARLY the niners saw that the chance of repeating such a favorable turn over ratio, and stout defense is impossible. The offense needed to imrpove, they needed speed on the outside, a deep threat, a back who can line up like a WR (see sproles and woodhead).

The niners also have declared on defense they believe that getting to the passer is the way to go, speed and OLB's is the key rather than relying on CB's and DB's to cover for 4-5 seconds so you get coverage sacks.

If the Niners wanted to get a good draft grade, they could have traded their 1 and 2 to move up to get De Castro or stay put and got guard at 1st round pick. This drat also shows that Baalke and company have thrown out BPA drafting, this was drafting for what direction the team wants to move in the future.

If we take a step back and it looks like Chilo is back out there it will be a failure. Nothing works if Alex is on his back and that starts upfront. The FA additions on O will be a bigger factor scoring IMO. Not a knock on Jenkins but I hope Moss really shows up because he could be dangerous. Not getting DeCastro, passing on Konz, Glenn, Jones etc is the biggest risk IMO. If the position is "fixed" then the draft goes up another grade for me. If we are back drafting more OL next year we have a problem.

I agree with you, for once. Lol. Guard was the closest thing we had to a real need and we barely addressed it in the 4th. They must feel really confident in Kilgore's development.

I'm not as high on Moss as you are though. I don't see how he can be any better than he was with 3 teams in 2010 after taking an entire year off from football.(Even if he kept working out, that's a lot of time away from the game). Since there is no risk for the 9ers with Moss having no guaranteed money, I see them cutting him as soon as any rookie is even close to being better than him because it's always better to give rookies more playing time so they can develop faster. Moss also has no value on special teams so he won't even stick around because of that.

If we get max play from each WR Moss wont go anywhere. In that case Williams and Manningham are the bubble players. Neither have shown to be full time starters who can rip a D.

But it goes back to OG, we have drafted 4 OL in 2 years bout time that trend stops.
This was an A draft. Remember last year?
All I have to say is AJ Jenkins reminded me of Mike Wallace when I watched him play I think he is going to be a beast
I think that's the problem. Hardballke became enamored with Mike Wallace when we faced the Steelers this year and were so ready to get him in FA until he wanted insane money. Instead they drafted someone who is very similar. That being said I hope we can use him like the steelers use Wallace. Bubble screens, underneath slants, and deep posts. The question now becomes can Smith get him the ball. I really think Kaepernick will be our Starting qb this year at some point.
Originally posted by D-Money:
I think that's the problem. Hardballke became enamored with Mike Wallace when we faced the Steelers this year and were so ready to get him in FA until he wanted insane money. Instead they drafted someone who is very similar. That being said I hope we can use him like the steelers use Wallace. Bubble screens, underneath slants, and deep posts. The question now becomes can Smith get him the ball. I really think Kaepernick will be our Starting qb this year at some point.

I agree for the most part except for Colin starting. If that happens then we are probalbly losing games.
I don't get why people get so hooked on draft grades. who gives a f**k if someone says it an A or an F draft. How many times do these draft grades have to be proven wrong.

If you want to grade drafts, you have to wait 2-3 years.

With LaMichael James/A.J. Jenkins its clear the direction Harballke want to go. They want to upgrade the speed on our team and apparently felt that was a fatal flaw of the team last year.

Personally, I don't expect to see much of James/Jenkins this year. I think these picks are about building for the future, which to me tells me they feel the starters they have now are good enough to get it done.

So all these grades can all f**k themselves, wait 4 months and we will start to know if these guys can play.
Got to agree in principal with SunDevil - the immediate reactions aren't worth much. Proof is in 2 or 3 years time - at least. But I still enjoy seeing how others that do grade these things have done so. It's just a draft review summary.

As for those saying this year's Guard play will determine the rating of the draft - ABSOLUTE NONSENSE.

Draft is never about immediate results - draft is about the long term. The nature of the league is that every team can improve, and there is always someone out there that can improve what you have. Free Agency and Salary Caps dictate that teams will never be perfect - but if the sum of the whole overcomes any flaws then you may get a winning team.

It's a big ask to improve on what we did last year - but if we do we can grade the ENTIRE OFFSEASON as a success.

The draft can be graded a success regardless of anything we do this season, depending on what we have from it in 3 or 4 years. If we don't even want to renew any of these guys at the end of their initial rookie deals that means it is a failure. If 1, 2 or more are starting in a winning team in 2016 then the draft was a resounding success really. Even if some are still suiting up on gameday a few years down the line then it is a relative success.
Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
I don't get why people get so hooked on draft grades. who gives a f**k if someone says it an A or an F draft. How many times do these draft grades have to be proven wrong.

If you want to grade drafts, you have to wait 2-3 years.

With LaMichael James/A.J. Jenkins its clear the direction Harballke want to go. They want to upgrade the speed on our team and apparently felt that was a fatal flaw of the team last year.

Personally, I don't expect to see much of James/Jenkins this year. I think these picks are about building for the future, which to me tells me they feel the starters they have now are good enough to get it done.

So all these grades can all f**k themselves, wait 4 months and we will start to know if these guys can play.

Because seeing a player that's great, and calling him great isn't as fun as looking at a players height and 40 time to determine he WILL BE great. The fun is in the guess work that will be labeled expertise when a "guru" hits on one.
Originally posted by jreff22:
It was a weird draft. The play at OG will be a determining factor on how to grade this.

that's one way to look at it
Walters . . .

30. A.J. Jenkins, WR, Illinois: Matt Millen Casual Kielbasa Sex Grade
This is bizarre. Did the 49ers know that Coby Fleener, Cordy Glenn and Stephen Hill were still on the board, or were they thrown off because the first round was going by so quickly? I don't get it. This is a huge reach. Here's where A.J. Jenkins ranked on the major big boards: 67, 76, 57, 73 and 70. Yeesh.

http://walterfootball.com/offseason2012sf.php?id=21


Yeesh is right . . . basing an opinion on "major" big boards? Just wow!




Also . . . 49ers - Day One Losers

After Seattle, the second-most shocking pick was the huge reach of Jenkins going to the 49ers. One NFL coach told WalterFootball.com on a phone call during the draft that his team had Jenkins going in the third round. Jenkins is a good speed receiver, but a bigger speed receiver in Stephen Hill was available. San Francisco also could have addressed its offensive line with a player like Cordy Glenn.


Jenkins had a very productive senior season. He caught 90 passes for 1,276 yards and eight touchdowns. Jenkins hauled in 56 passes for 746 yards and seven touchdowns as a junior in 2010. The 6-foot, 190-pounder has the speed to produce some big plays downfield, like he did for Illinois, but he was a big reach in the first round.

http://walterfootball.com/draft2012winnerslosers.php
Honestly who cares what the draft grade is. We won't truly know who had a great draft until a couple seasons in. If the majority of your guys make the 53 man roster at the beginning of the season you have had a good draft.
  • dj43
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Originally posted by mrwoodz:

As for those saying this year's Guard play will determine the rating of the draft - ABSOLUTE NONSENSE.
If this year's guard play if improved over last season then LAST SEASON'S draft, the one in which they picked Daniel Kilgore will have been an even bigger success than we thought. That is just the way it works.
Adding 3 picks next year is a success. If these players pan out then it's a good draft. Lamichael James was one of the most talented guys in the whole draft but undersized. He could be a great 3rd down option in the NFL. If Jenkins starts and produces in the NFL at some point then it was a success. Robinson was a steal late and could start if we lose someone. I don't think we have an immediate starter here but if injuries happen then guys can start.
Not a fan of draft grades because of the way they are typically given.

For one "experts" will laud teams that pick BPA but when it comes to grades they grade them based on filling needs.

And on the subject of needs since when are players drafted just for what they can contribute in the upcoming season? The teams that stay consistently good are the teams that draft needs before they become needs. What I mean is sure our WR corp and backfield look crowded but looking at the contracts in a year or two that's definitely not going to be the case. So the Jenkins and James picks are going to look really smart in 2013 because when we truly need them they'll already have a year under their belt and be ready to perform at a high level from the get go.

Also the guys giving the grades rarely have intimate knowledge of the teams that they are grading and most die hard fans who follow the team have a better feel than most "experts".
I was watching both NFL-N and ESPN at first, but soon saw NFL-N had much better coverage. They stayed on the picks, whereas ESPN wandered too far off it. On day 3 they were constantly behind and gave only lip service to the picks. Mayock's the best analyst I've seen...having played the game, he has a very good understanding of players and how to evaluate them, plus how they'll fit into the teams that drafted them.

My take is both Jenkins and James bring speed and explosiveness to a team that desperately needed it. Don't underestimate them or Looney, who had higher round abilities, but slid some due to a broken foot. He's healthy now and IMHO will win the RG position. He's a road-grader...and they'll coach him up in pass protection. The competion between he and Kilgore should be cool to watch. Fleming's a ST'er at first, but Leavitt will coach him up to be a solid b/u. Robinson was an outright steal in 6th rd...he'll buddy up w/Whitner, you can bank on it. Both guys have heard "you're too small" and TR will use that as motivation to prove he can do the job. Slowey was a div II standout...and will likely understudy Goodwin to be our C of the future. Lastly, Cam Johnson has all kinds of ability..and could prove to be the biggest steal of the entire draft. Again, he'll be coached up by Leavitt, who did a terrific job with our LB's last season. Mayock had him at #50 on his top 100 list.