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OnTheClock's Big 253 Final Board

Originally posted by bzborow1:
Courtney Upshaw is there if Baltimore is really looking for a LB....

Much higher on Andre Branch at OLB if they are going that direction. I think Upshaw struggles in the NFL.
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
AJ Jenkins 83rd LOL

at least we didn't pick 252 Tim Benford WR Tennessee Tech at 30.....
Originally posted by Hitman49:
at least we didn't pick 252 Tim Benford WR Tennessee Tech at 30.....

Agreed. Someone was worried we would select Dwight Jones of UNC, which was hilarious.
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Let's be fair here. My criticism of the Smith pick was not Smith himself. OTC and I discussed that Smith was the highest graded OLB on my board at the time of the 49ers pick. The criticism is that there were better players on the board. Smith played really well in 2011 and he may end up better than Watt. It is all about selecting the best player on the board. In my view, there were plenty other better players available at 30 than Jenkins, even though I had him 37th best overall on my board.

The future will show that the team missed a great opportunity for a more impactful player in Konz and Glenn, and really missed on the chance to go up and grab DeCastro before the Steelers, texans and Bengaks at 27 were on the clock.

Not good draft strategy. Sorry.

There were better players on YOUR board perhaps but not on the Niners board. Watts was very highly rated but the Niners had Smith higher and it was justified based on the impact he made in their pass rush. Obviously teams did not value Konz and Glenn like you did. The Ravens need a Center badly yet they passed on Konz.

The thing I do like about Baalke is that he makes decisions based on who HE thinks is best for the organization. Not who Mel Kiper thinks. Not who Mike Mayock thinks. Not who guys on the Webzone think. Jenkins was the guy he wanted and if he thought that the Rams were going to take him then he did the right thing to pull the trigger.

It's all a matter of opinion. I don't think MD and I expect people to take our word over Trent Baalke's. Two people can view the same player and grade their attributes differently. If Trent could specifically point out on film where he sees something special, I am certainly open minded and will consider that maybe there is some other attribute or quality I have missed. It doesn't matter to me if anyone agrees with my assessment. Jenkins is one specific player that I've seen plenty of to make an evaluation I feel strong about. I trust my evaluations because I have a strong track record, especially when going against the grain of the media and analysts. There is nothing wrong with trusting in one's own evaluation when you are generally right about them.

I like Baalke, and I think he's a strong evaluator of talent, but I don't think he's infallible. He can miss on picks. He very well might miss on this one. We'll have to see.

The Rams having Jenkins as a 1st rounder does not mean very much to me. They've had no success picking receivers lately.
I guess the Niners werent the only teams that differ greatly from your rankings. Quick, Wolfe, Schwartz.. all drafted much higher.
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
I guess the Niners werent the only teams that differ greatly from your rankings. Quick, Wolfe, Schwartz.. all drafted much higher.

Thankfully, none of those are surprises to me. Heavily debated moving Quick into the mid-2nd, but at the last second decided to leave it as is. Same with Wolfe. Time crunches really hampered me this year. Not as much time as years past to cram all the things in life needed to be done and still get the draft stuff done. OTCexcuses.

It's still early though, we'll how the rest of the draft goes. Looking forward to seeing the Top 64 score.

Back to Jenkins though. Out of respect for Baalke, I obviously would consider that there may be something I've overlooked. It's not like I thought Jenkins was a bad player, considering I gave him a third round grade. Just did not see him as "1st round" type of special player. The first round is supposed to be for extremely unique, special talents, and Jenkins is a talented guy, but I didn't feel it was to that level.

Only time will tell.
[ Edited by OnTheClock on Apr 27, 2012 at 5:15 PM ]
Hit on Jamell Fleming and Trumaine Johnson almost exactly. Within one is fantastic.
Also hit the nail on the head slotting exactly Adam Gettis to Washington at 151, knowing his fit in their zone blocking scheme.
always love reading your stuff man. Even though i disagree sometimes, you put in hard work, and just wanna say its appreciated.
So how'd you do? Let's compare you and MD with the actual Niner draft:

AJ Jenkins, taken #30. You had him at #83, MD had him at #52. You missed by -53, MD missed by -22.

LaMichael James taken at #61. You had him at #78, MD had him at #74. You missed by -17, MD missed by -13.

Joe Looney taken at #117. You had him at 120, MD at #189. You had a near miss at -3; MD missed by -72.

Darius Fleming taken at #165. You had him at #244, MD had him at #168. You missed by -79; MD had a near miss at -3;

Trent Robinson taken at #180. You had him at 122; MD at 102. You missed by +58, MD by +78;

Jason Slowey taken at #199. You didn't list him, so figure you'd now list him at 254, a miss of +55; MD had him at 245, a miss of +46;

Cam Johnson taken at #237. You had him at #89; MD at #76. You missed by +148; MD missed by +161.

The biggest miss, the most glaring error for you both was Cam Johnson--which just illustrates the difference between the NFL pros and you guys, who didn't have access to medical records on players and were undoubtedly unaware of Johnson's sickle cell diagnosis.

Really, given the much more limited information on all these guys that you have access to, compared to the NFL personnel departments and GMs, its remarkable that you were so close on the Looney selection and MD was so close on the Fleming pick.

If I had to give you guys grades (I know, unfair for at least three years), I'd have to say you get a D and MD gets a D+. .

MD completely missed on six of the seven picks, and missed badly on four of them:Looney, Robinson, Slowey, and Johnson. But MD gets some credit for even listing Slowey, a small school OL who could easily have been overlooked.

You missed on six of seven, and missed badly on Jenkins, Robinson, Fleming, Johnson and Slowey.

Really, totally kidding about "grades." Grades are as meaningless for you guys as they are for NFL teams at this point. So take them as what they're intended to be, just jocular insults.

Good effort, and better luck next year.
I appreciate the comments, whether kind or joking little jabs -- it's all good. While I know MD and I are neither satisfied by our overall results this year, it was still fun. And as was just said, hopefully there is better luck with us next year.

In response to oldie. Alright, so I may have missed on some of ours, but I would like to take credit for some nice feats as far as slots for other players that I had a really good feeling would go in the spots I placed them! Best hits of the draft were (I've only listed those who were within four picks or less, and won't list the picks like Looney that you already noted):

#63 Dwayne Allen TE Clemson - Selected #64
#66 Trumaine Johnson CB Montana - Selected #65
#81 Jamell Fleming CB Oklahoma - Selected #80
#90 Jayron Hosely CB Virginia Tech - Selected #94
#94 Tony Bergstrom OT/OG Utah - Selected #95
#141 Adam Gettis OG Iowa - Exact hit at #141
#149 Senio Kelemete OG Washington - Selected #151
#197 Matt McCants OT UAB - Selected #201
#240 David Paulson TE Oregon - Exact hit at #240
#242 Markus Kuhn DT NC State - Selected #239
#246 Travian Robertson DT South Carolina - Selected #249
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
I appreciate the comments, whether kind or joking little jabs -- it's all good. While I know MD and I are neither satisfied by our overall results this year, it was still fun. And as was just said, hopefully there is better luck with us next year.

In response to oldie. Alright, so I may have missed on some of ours, but I would like to take credit for some nice feats as far as slots for other players that I had a really good feeling would go in the spots I placed them! Best hits of the draft were (I've only listed those who were within four picks or less, and won't list the picks like Looney that you already noted):

#63 Dwayne Allen TE Clemson - Selected #64
#66 Trumaine Johnson CB Montana - Selected #65
#81 Jamell Fleming CB Oklahoma - Selected #80
#90 Jayron Hosely CB Virginia Tech - Selected #94
#94 Tony Bergstrom OT/OG Utah - Selected #95
#141 Adam Gettis OG Iowa - Exact hit at #141
#149 Senio Kelemete OG Washington - Selected #151
#197 Matt McCants OT UAB - Selected #201
#240 David Paulson TE Oregon - Exact hit at #240
#242 Markus Kuhn DT NC State - Selected #239
#246 Travian Robertson DT South Carolina - Selected #249
Face it, without access to the same information the pros use--game tape, medical reports, personal interviews and workouts--there's just no way you will ever be able to do better than what you've done.

That doesn't mean your work in listing and trying to rank the players every year is without value. Its useful as a basis for conversations about the draft, if nothing else.

I presume its a somewhat humbling experience as well. Thanks for the work in putting it together, and for putting up with all us second guessers.