Originally posted by blm7754:
Hill is a very inexperienced WR that ran very limited routes in G Techs offense. There is no evidence to suggest that he will pick up an NFL playbook and be able to run the routes effectively with a professional CB covering him. He has shot up the draft boards because of his good measurables (I always worry about drafting guys like that). He is a bust or boom type of pick... bust for teams that need him to play right away and boom for teams that can sit him and let him learn how to be a pro WR.
I'm not saying that we have talented WRs on our roster... quite the opposite. So we need guys that can step in now and be effective. Right now, Ted Ginn is a faster and better route runner than Hill. We need good football players. Not guys that only have potential to be good football players.
I see Kendall Wright, Alshon Jeffery, and Rueben Randle as all much safer draft bets than Hill.
1st. The route trees of all college WR's are limited. College coaches have progressively over the years asked less of their WR (and QB's). So that's a bad metric to evaluate this kid on.
2nd. You are right, there is no "evidence" he'll be able to pick-up an NFL playbook. But then again, there isn't any that he won't be able to either.
People should stop using NFL standard on players that have never played an NFL down.
3rd. I don't get your "bust or boom" scenario. The draft is still yet somewhat of a gamble. Players are extensively evaluated ad nauseum
by numerous scouts, et al
. But when it's all said and done you really won't know until they suit up and get on the field. I doubt JH & Co. are using vague or trivial metrics like "boom or bust" to evaluate players.
4th. I'm sorry, but Ted Ginn is not known for his route running. In fact, he's been rather bad at it his whole career. You can't compare a prospect, who's never played an NFL down, to a guy who's had 5 NFL seasons of lack luster WR stats. (And speaking of Ginn, he's a WR in-name-only who's main job will be to return kicks and punts.)
5th. At this point, potential
draft prospect has to offer a team, no matter where they go in the draft. Don't harp against the potential of a draft prospect when we still have WR's on the 49ers roster who's still showing nothing but potential after 3 full seasons.
Look, Hill is a draft prospect, not an NFL vet. I think you are judging this kid unfairly. In fact, the only reason this kid is getting flack, especially from some Zoners, is because he had the mis-fortune of playing in the triple option. But here's what we do know about Hill other than his measurables: He's a perfect WC WR because he's one of the better blocking WR's coming out of college, he has a very strong - but not sudden - release off the line of scrimmage (meaning he can deal with the press), excellent high-point catcher, and he is very strong after the catch. Will he need to work on some things? Sure, but what rookie don't? But this guy has a very high ceiling and extremely good intangibles (he works hard, durable, no diva factor, or off-the-field issues at all), the type of guy that Baalke and JH likes. I think with our coaching staff this kid would come in and contribute right away. It isn't like we're oozing with WR talent.