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mock draft / draft strategy

Round 1:

In my oppinion, we have to pick up a guard, who can compete for the starting spot with the first pick. This means, we have to be a little bit flexibel with our first pick with the following possibilities ( I leave Decastro out, because he won't be picked anywhere near to where we pick):

Peter Konz or Cordy Glenn drop a little bit : If one of those two guys is available, maybe trade up a pick or two and pick him.
If both are gone, try to trade down a few spots and pick up Kevin Zeitler.

So the pick is Konz, Glenn or Zeitler (in that order), OG


Round 2:

Harrison Smith, Safety from Notre Dame

Goldson is franchised, so we have to take into account, that he is gone after this season. We are really thin at safety behind the two starters and need a guy who can cover tight ends in multi tight end sets. Smith is a great player with ball skills who can help a lot and take over for Goldson next year.


Round 3:

Chris Givens, WR from Wake Forrest

If Randy Moss can be the deep threat, this is a luxury pick, but i don't really see that as guaranteed. Givens reminds some people of Mike Wallace. We did not get the original, so why not take the next one :)

Round 4:

Josh Chapman, DE from Alabama

The dline needs some new guys, because Justin Smith is not getting younger and there isn't much behind the starters and RJF. Chapman is a run stopper who could help in the rotation and learn from the cowboy.


Round 5:

Bernhard Pierce, RB from Temple

We have to think about a successor for Frank and we have to bring in a new power back who can compete with Jacobs and replace him later.
Pierce is a powerfull runner, who could start in a complementary roll and be the every down guy later that Hunter can't be because of his size.



Round 6 and 7 :

Pick up bpa . This is the try to pick up a diamond in the rough. Much luck needed with those picks so i won't pretend i know about those guys :)
[ Edited by stever on Apr 8, 2012 at 9:54 AM ]
Resist reaching for an OG in the first because it is our biggest hole. Let the draft come to us.

According to OTC, at our second round pick there are a number of very good OGs:
Brandon Brooks OG
Brandon Washington OG
Ben Jones, C/OG

Even the third round:
Tony Bergstrom OT/OG
James Brown OG

And the fourth round has:
Philip Blake C/OG
Good draft overall. But I don't like the RB pick, we already have 5 on the roster, rather get a LB there.
I like it as long as the last two picks are for one OLB/pass rusher (like Tim Fugger - Vandy) and maybe another d-lineman (Nicolas Jean-Baptiste NT Baylor or Akiem Hicks DT/DE Regina).
-G in the first round.
Originally posted by niners4lyfe:
-G in the first round.
Not saying we take a guard no matter what, but If Kilgore is not capable or if he or Goodwin goes down kiss the season goodbye. I guard needs to be piked, we lost two OL. MP is doing okay for a late round, but he is far from ready. The FA available leaves something to be desired. I don't like Cordy. If not Decastro, then Konz in the first and Zeitler in the 2nd, but the niners will have trade up to get him.

No solid line then Gore falters, and Alex gets sacked, throws an int. or whatever. I want to see what Alex can do and I don't want excuses about the line and in particular the guard was a problem. We need to know.
I don't want a G in in the first again, and I don't think our payroll people want that either. That would be 4 first-rounder salaries. I think we draft a WR because IMO WR is the position that has limited this offense.

There isn't a WR that can be labeled our #1. Crabtree may continue to improve on the end of last season and get ~1000yds. Or he may continue with mental lapses and dropped passes and has another mediocre season. In that case, we would probably trade/drop him.

Mario Manningham is going to be part of the next few years, due to his contract. He could be a solid #2-3 or he could be a guy who benefited strongly from having two really good receivers ahead of him on the depth chart and not be very good. Either way, I'm pretty sure he's here for this year and next, which is the only receiver I can say that for.

We are rolling the dice with Moss; if he does well, great, if not it's what I expected.

Kyle Williams is a similar case to Crabtree, but he may have serious confidence issues hampering him for awhile. He may get cut before the season starts.

Ted Ginn Jr. was brought on for PR/KR, for which he is excellent. If he contributes as a WR, we're in trouble.


I can see us drafting early. We still don't have a number #1. I think we have to strongly consider a WR, even if it requires us moving up substantially.
Originally posted by niners9:
Good draft overall. But I don't like the RB pick, we already have 5 on the roster, rather get a LB there.

It is true that we have 4 running backs on the roster (who is the 5th? Or are you talking about the FB ?). But lets look at them :

Gore : He is a lot of mileage and is injured at least once every season. We have to start looking for his successor.
Hunter : He is great, but he is not an every down back. He will be the change of pace option for the next year, but can't be the feature back
Jacobs : One year contract. He wasn't they guy the league feared the last two season. We con't know if he can be the guy
Dixon : Good 1st year, bad 2nd year. Imo he is a special teams guy at this point, nothing more

So we need a new running back in the next 2 years, why not start with a low risk pick here and hope he pans out.
Originally posted by mebemused:
Resist reaching for an OG in the first because it is our biggest hole. Let the draft come to us.

According to OTC, at our second round pick there are a number of very good OGs:
Brandon Brooks OG
Brandon Washington OG
Ben Jones, C/OG

Even the third round:
Tony Bergstrom OT/OG
James Brown OG

And the fourth round has:
Philip Blake C/OG

There is no reaching in the 1st round. If we take Konz or Glenn, this would not be a reach. Those guys are projected in the early 20s. If we pick Zeitler, it should happen with a trade down. I don't want them to reach for Zeitler at #30. If this happens, better pick a WR here (Hill or Jeferey)
Originally posted by NinerBuff:
I don't want a G in in the first again, and I don't think our payroll people want that either. That would be 4 first-rounder salaries. I think we draft a WR because IMO WR is the position that has limited this offense.

There isn't a WR that can be labeled our #1. Crabtree may continue to improve on the end of last season and get ~1000yds. Or he may continue with mental lapses and dropped passes and has another mediocre season. In that case, we would probably trade/drop him.

Mario Manningham is going to be part of the next few years, due to his contract. He could be a solid #2-3 or he could be a guy who benefited strongly from having two really good receivers ahead of him on the depth chart and not be very good. Either way, I'm pretty sure he's here for this year and next, which is the only receiver I can say that for.

We are rolling the dice with Moss; if he does well, great, if not it's what I expected.

Kyle Williams is a similar case to Crabtree, but he may have serious confidence issues hampering him for awhile. He may get cut before the season starts.

Ted Ginn Jr. was brought on for PR/KR, for which he is excellent. If he contributes as a WR, we're in trouble.


I can see us drafting early. We still don't have a number #1. I think we have to strongly consider a WR, even if it requires us moving up substantially.

The problem i have with wr is that there is a good chance that there is no wr available that can help us.

Hill : He may be gone based alone on his measurements. But even if he is not gone, he is raw as hell and it is far from a sure thing that he can help immediately let alone be a #1

Randle : Many question marks here, too. He wasn't very productive but this could be because of the poor quarterback play at LSU. He could be a #1, but nobody knows.

Jefferey : He would be a reach at #30 and we all know where his problems are. He is a possession guy, and a red zone target, but he has problems getting open.

The only real #1 guys in this draft are Blackmon and Floyd, who will both be gone. Wright is good, will be gone but is more of a #2 guy.

So, who do you take at #30 that can really help us as a #1 guy.
49ers need to trade up to get hill in first round. Too much talent. Let hill sit behind Moss for a year or so. Crabtree is average not a true number one. 49ers can get a good lineman in the second round. Considering how deep the niners are, most of there draft picks probably won't make the team.
Originally posted by stever:
Originally posted by NinerBuff:
I don't want a G in in the first again, and I don't think our payroll people want that either. That would be 4 first-rounder salaries. I think we draft a WR because IMO WR is the position that has limited this offense.

There isn't a WR that can be labeled our #1. Crabtree may continue to improve on the end of last season and get ~1000yds. Or he may continue with mental lapses and dropped passes and has another mediocre season. In that case, we would probably trade/drop him.

Mario Manningham is going to be part of the next few years, due to his contract. He could be a solid #2-3 or he could be a guy who benefited strongly from having two really good receivers ahead of him on the depth chart and not be very good. Either way, I'm pretty sure he's here for this year and next, which is the only receiver I can say that for.

We are rolling the dice with Moss; if he does well, great, if not it's what I expected.

Kyle Williams is a similar case to Crabtree, but he may have serious confidence issues hampering him for awhile. He may get cut before the season starts.

Ted Ginn Jr. was brought on for PR/KR, for which he is excellent. If he contributes as a WR, we're in trouble.


I can see us drafting early. We still don't have a number #1. I think we have to strongly consider a WR, even if it requires us moving up substantially.

The problem i have with wr is that there is a good chance that there is no wr available that can help us.

Hill : He may be gone based alone on his measurements. But even if he is not gone, he is raw as hell and it is far from a sure thing that he can help immediately let alone be a #1

Randle : Many question marks here, too. He wasn't very productive but this could be because of the poor quarterback play at LSU. He could be a #1, but nobody knows.

Jefferey : He would be a reach at #30 and we all know where his problems are. He is a possession guy, and a red zone target, but he has problems getting open.

The only real #1 guys in this draft are Blackmon and Floyd, who will both be gone. Wright is good, will be gone but is more of a #2 guy.

So, who do you take at #30 that can really help us as a #1 guy.
Stever,
I like your draft, but I think you have to answer whether Baalke would select another first round OL. That would be a lot of money tied up there. Is it manageable? What precedent is there for the Niners doing that? Also, with Moss, the Niners will not need another #1 WR immediately. Also, you have to defend not picking Fleener in the first. Mock drafts represented in the Webzone's draft page list Fleener as the mostly likely round #1 selection.

I lean toward thnking the Niners go with an OG in the second round, possibly trading up. Or, if they are high on Kilgore, then a guard as low as the 4th round.
[ Edited by Paul_Hofer on Apr 9, 2012 at 6:43 AM ]
Originally posted by stever:
Originally posted by niners9:
Good draft overall. But I don't like the RB pick, we already have 5 on the roster, rather get a LB there.

It is true that we have 4 running backs on the roster (who is the 5th? Or are you talking about the FB ?). But lets look at them :

Gore : He is a lot of mileage and is injured at least once every season. We have to start looking for his successor.
Hunter : He is great, but he is not an every down back. He will be the change of pace option for the next year, but can't be the feature back
Jacobs : One year contract. He wasn't they guy the league feared the last two season. We con't know if he can be the guy
Dixon : Good 1st year, bad 2nd year. Imo he is a special teams guy at this point, nothing more

So we need a new running back in the next 2 years, why not start with a low risk pick here and hope he pans out.
cartwright is also a RB. i know he was signed for ST, but if we are in a bind he can play and has the experience. i also dont think a 5th round RB will be gore's successor. RB is a very important position on this team and gore's eventual replacement i would bet will be drafted higher.

gore, hunter and cartwright(ST) i believe are locks to make the team. with jacobs and dixon competing for the 3rd spot. i just dont see a need of drafting another RB this year. but most likely drafting one high next year.
Lets not sleep on Kilgore here. A lot of "experts" had Snyder ranked as one of the worst starting guards in the league last year. I think the 9ers like Kilgore a lot and if Baalke/Harbaugh think he can play I'm okay with it. Why draft a guard early if you think Kilgore's your guy? Makes no sense to have 3 young guards. I wouldn't be surprised if they sign a vet and don't even address guard in the draft.
Yeah, I don't like this mock one bit. Why is everybody overvaluing the OG position? High quality guards can be found in the middle rounds. Regardless, a rookie will not be an improvement over Kilgore or whatever vet we bring in to compete.

OG is a need for sure... but not our biggest need. We need a WR first and foremost.

I like your Givens, Chapman, and Pierce picks.... but I would go Stephen Hill (WR) or Colby Fleener (TE) in the first and Ben Jones (OG) or Tony Bergstrom (OG) in the second.