Originally posted by doc_brown_:
Looking at the current roster leads me to believe that the 49ers will not draft the BPA and will instead draft a player to fill a specific need. Here's an outline of the projected starting lineups and where the weaknesses are.
QB: Alex Smith
RB: Frank Gore
FB: Bruce Miller
WR: Michael Crabtree
WR: Mario Manningham/Randy Moss
TE: Vernon Davis
Coby Fleener will be long gone by the time the Niners pick and trading up in the first round isn't our style. The Niners already have very talented "skill position" players and even though I do envision them drafting a WR at some point, I do not see them taking a WR or TE in the 1st round.
LT: Joe Staley
LG: Mike Iupati
C: Johnathan Goodwin
RT: Anthony Davis
The Niners did not fill this hole in free agency and did not re-sign Adam Snyder. Daniel Kilgore was chosen in the 5th round of last years draft and will either start or provide depth. We'll assume the latter, which makes RG an area of huge concern. We saw last year how a weak interior translates into inconsistent offensive production. Kevin Zeitler (Wisconsin), Cordy Glenn (Georgia), Amini Silatolu (Midwestern State) and Brandon Brooks (Miami OH) are possible selections.
DE: Ray McDonald
DT: Isaac Sopoaga
DE: Justin Smith
Sopoaga and Smith are old and there isn't much depth here (Dobbs, Jean Francois, Tukufu). D-lineman coming out of college usually need at least a year to adjust to the NFL. It's safe to say that if the Niners draft a defensive player in the first round, he will not start (All 11 starters will be back for 2012). Therefore it makes sense to draft an eventual replacement for Sopoaga or Smith. He can develop while providing depth along the line. Nick Perry (USC), Jared Crick (Nebraska), Vinny Curry (Marshall), Jerel Worthy (Michigan State), Kendall Reyes (Connecticut) and Devon Still (Penn State) are possible selections. It's worth noting that all the current Niner d-lineman are heavier than 275lbs.
OLB: Ahmad Brooks
ILB: Navarro Bowman
ILB: Patrick Willis
OLB: Aldon Smith
Our LB's are young and talented. Excellent starters and good depth (Haralson, Grant, Gooden). No need to spend a 1st round pick here.
CB: Carlos Rogers
CB: Tarell Brown/Chris Cullliver
SS: Donte Whitner
FS: Dashon Goldson
The Niners are set at safety for the next few years. If there is a CB rated highly on Baalke's draft board who is available at #30, I personally wouldn't be upset if the Niners pulled the trigger on him. Brown is good but not great. Culliver had a good amount of playing time last season, which bodes well for his development, but we'll have to wait and see if he can be a #2. The CB depth is encouraging but also questionable (Cox and Brock). CB's coming out of college usually need a year to adjust to the NFL, so this could be the perfect time to draft an eventual replacement for Rogers (who will be 31 in July). The Niners like big physical CB's and it's worth noting that all the current 49ers CB's are above 190lbs. Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama), Janoris Jenkins (North Alabama), Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina) and Josh Robinson (Central Florida) are possible selections.
Remember, this analysis applies only to the 1st round. Do you agree with my rational? Who would you draft if you were GM?
I think that you are taking the best player available to extreme. The way the I am reading it you are suggesting that who ever is on the top of the board regardless of position you take that player. I think that is a case for teams that have a tone of holes to fill or a team that has a solid line up that doesn't want to reach at a position.
If I were the GM I would want a player that can contribute early. I think that is the general rule of thumb. A plug n play type guy. If I were running the draft I would not be looking at positions. This game is about scoring touchdowns. I would look at the players that got in the end zone the most and assess if it would translate in the NFL. I think we will draft a skill player for our offense. It really doesn't matter if it is WR, TE, or RB.
Here are the players that I would consider drafting with the first over pick.
Justin Blackmon (18 TD in 2011) Most like drafted by our turn.
Kendall Wright (14 TD in 2011) Most likely gone.
Michael Floyd (9 TD in 2011) Most likely gone.
Reuben Randle (8 TD in 2011)
Stephen HIll (5 TD in 2011) That is with only 28 receptions
Coby Fleener (10 TD in 2011)
Trent Richardson (21 TD rushing 3 receiving) Most likely gone.
Doug Martin (16 TD Rushing 2 receiving) Smaller school but I think his game translates well to the NFL.
LaMichael James (18 TD rushing 1 receiving) He had 24 total TD in 2010.
I know that my idea is different. Then I thought of the movie Money Ball. Principle is the same. I would pick the BPA of these players listed. That's how I would do it.
As for the need to OG I really think that Killgore is the future at OG. Most teams believe they can find good OG in the mid to later rounds. I think we will still draft a OG in the draft just not early.
DL has great depth IMHO. Smith and Sop are getting a little long in the tooth but still have a lot of good football left. I wouldn't waste a high pick there especially were they have no way of cracking the starting line up anytime soon. By the way you forgot to list Ian Williams.