Best Player Available? I don't think so!

Looking at the current roster leads me to believe that the 49ers will not draft the BPA and will instead draft a player to fill a specific need. Here's an outline of the projected starting lineups and where the weaknesses are.

QB: Alex Smith
RB: Frank Gore
FB: Bruce Miller
WR: Michael Crabtree
WR: Mario Manningham/Randy Moss
TE: Vernon Davis

Coby Fleener will be long gone by the time the Niners pick and trading up in the first round isn't our style. The Niners already have very talented "skill position" players and even though I do envision them drafting a WR at some point, I do not see them taking a WR or TE in the 1st round.

LT: Joe Staley
LG: Mike Iupati
C: Johnathan Goodwin
RG: ??????????
RT: Anthony Davis

The Niners did not fill this hole in free agency and did not re-sign Adam Snyder. Daniel Kilgore was chosen in the 5th round of last years draft and will either start or provide depth. We'll assume the latter, which makes RG an area of huge concern. We saw last year how a weak interior translates into inconsistent offensive production. Kevin Zeitler (Wisconsin), Cordy Glenn (Georgia), Amini Silatolu (Midwestern State) and Brandon Brooks (Miami OH) are possible selections.

DE: Ray McDonald
DT: Isaac Sopoaga
DE: Justin Smith

Sopoaga and Smith are old and there isn't much depth here (Dobbs, Jean Francois, Tukufu). D-lineman coming out of college usually need at least a year to adjust to the NFL. It's safe to say that if the Niners draft a defensive player in the first round, he will not start (All 11 starters will be back for 2012). Therefore it makes sense to draft an eventual replacement for Sopoaga or Smith. He can develop while providing depth along the line. Nick Perry (USC), Jared Crick (Nebraska), Vinny Curry (Marshall), Jerel Worthy (Michigan State), Kendall Reyes (Connecticut) and Devon Still (Penn State) are possible selections. It's worth noting that all the current Niner d-lineman are heavier than 275lbs.

OLB: Ahmad Brooks
ILB: Navarro Bowman
ILB: Patrick Willis
OLB: Aldon Smith

Our LB's are young and talented. Excellent starters and good depth (Haralson, Grant, Gooden). No need to spend a 1st round pick here.

CB: Carlos Rogers
CB: Tarell Brown/Chris Cullliver
SS: Donte Whitner
FS: Dashon Goldson

The Niners are set at safety for the next few years. If there is a CB rated highly on Baalke's draft board who is available at #30, I personally wouldn't be upset if the Niners pulled the trigger on him. Brown is good but not great. Culliver had a good amount of playing time last season, which bodes well for his development, but we'll have to wait and see if he can be a #2. The CB depth is encouraging but also questionable (Cox and Brock). CB's coming out of college usually need a year to adjust to the NFL, so this could be the perfect time to draft an eventual replacement for Rogers (who will be 31 in July). The Niners like big physical CB's and it's worth noting that all the current 49ers CB's are above 190lbs. Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama), Janoris Jenkins (North Alabama), Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina) and Josh Robinson (Central Florida) are possible selections.


Remember, this analysis applies only to the 1st round. Do you agree with my rational? Who would you draft if you were GM?

id still take a WR if someone awesome falls to us. that position isnt exactly a huge strength. WR, OG, DT/DE would be the primary targets i would think. good analysis tho man

RG, RB, TE, WR are the areas of concern for this draft. How the FO will address these issues remains to be seen. I would agree that defensive depth is also an issue.

I think your argument actually persuades FOR taking the best player available. We really only have one position open with no replacement with any starting experience (RG), but you point out a need for depth on the defensive line and an eventual need for a WR. Remember, we will only have two WRs signed after this season (Crabtree and Manningham).

We also have a need, in my estimation, for a young RB to push Dixon. Gore isn't getting younger and Hunter might not be an every-down-back. Dixon brings great energy to Special Teams but hasn't been able to get in on offense.

Harbaugh has proven that he wants competition at every position so I think we are in a perfect position to draft for best player available. our biggest NEED is a position that regularly produces solid players later in the draft. We can just sit back and watch talent fall to us at #30. Teams always make bone-headed picks in the first round which pushes talent back. Fleener is a nice prospect, but he isn't the only talented player that could fall.

In the first round, teams typically go BPA with respect to their most pressing need, but not always.

Like many teams, we draft BPA but with need in consideration. The team felt Aldon was the #1 (or at worst #2 behind Miller) OLB prospect in the draft, so they felt justified taking him with our first pick last year. It happened to be a position of pressing need. Many of us thought it'd be CB Amukamara, including myself, considering we lost Clements.. Spencer had injury issues, and Tarell Brown had not been very good so far. CB was also a pressing need, but we obviously felt Aldon was the better player at that spot, and it seems he was. The 49ers drafted the BPA with "reasonable consideration for needs" at that spot and their value board got it right.

"ABSOLUTE BPA" would pick the best player no matter what, and team selections would look rather weird if that took place obviously. I think some teams have to have at least a TINY consideration for need, but you can tell which ones look less at need and draft purely from their big board, opting to put heavier emphasis on overall value compared to the entire player pool rather. That simplifies it, and weighs "one players collective value" vs. another players' value.

What we do appears to be weighing "collective value" vs. "positional value". Just another form of BPA. Because sometimes the collective value is too great to pass up, and a player that may be the best available at a certain position we need simply is not as high as a player that is overall, better than everyone else in the draft remaining -- according to our board -- at that point.

Originally posted by doc_brown_:
Looking at the current roster leads me to believe that the 49ers will not draft the BPA and will instead draft a player to fill a specific need. Here's an outline of the projected starting lineups and where the weaknesses are.

QB: Alex Smith
RB: Frank Gore
FB: Bruce Miller
WR: Michael Crabtree
WR: Mario Manningham/Randy Moss
TE: Vernon Davis

Coby Fleener will be long gone by the time the Niners pick and trading up in the first round isn't our style. The Niners already have very talented "skill position" players and even though I do envision them drafting a WR at some point, I do not see them taking a WR or TE in the 1st round.

LT: Joe Staley
LG: Mike Iupati
C: Johnathan Goodwin
RG: ??????????
RT: Anthony Davis

The Niners did not fill this hole in free agency and did not re-sign Adam Snyder. Daniel Kilgore was chosen in the 5th round of last years draft and will either start or provide depth. We'll assume the latter, which makes RG an area of huge concern. We saw last year how a weak interior translates into inconsistent offensive production. Kevin Zeitler (Wisconsin), Cordy Glenn (Georgia), Amini Silatolu (Midwestern State) and Brandon Brooks (Miami OH) are possible selections.

DE: Ray McDonald
DT: Isaac Sopoaga
DE: Justin Smith

Sopoaga and Smith are old and there isn't much depth here (Dobbs, Jean Francois, Tukufu). D-lineman coming out of college usually need at least a year to adjust to the NFL. It's safe to say that if the Niners draft a defensive player in the first round, he will not start (All 11 starters will be back for 2012). Therefore it makes sense to draft an eventual replacement for Sopoaga or Smith. He can develop while providing depth along the line. Nick Perry (USC), Jared Crick (Nebraska), Vinny Curry (Marshall), Jerel Worthy (Michigan State), Kendall Reyes (Connecticut) and Devon Still (Penn State) are possible selections. It's worth noting that all the current Niner d-lineman are heavier than 275lbs.

OLB: Ahmad Brooks
ILB: Navarro Bowman
ILB: Patrick Willis
OLB: Aldon Smith

Our LB's are young and talented. Excellent starters and good depth (Haralson, Grant, Gooden). No need to spend a 1st round pick here.

CB: Carlos Rogers
CB: Tarell Brown/Chris Cullliver
SS: Donte Whitner
FS: Dashon Goldson

The Niners are set at safety for the next few years. If there is a CB rated highly on Baalke's draft board who is available at #30, I personally wouldn't be upset if the Niners pulled the trigger on him. Brown is good but not great. Culliver had a good amount of playing time last season, which bodes well for his development, but we'll have to wait and see if he can be a #2. The CB depth is encouraging but also questionable (Cox and Brock). CB's coming out of college usually need a year to adjust to the NFL, so this could be the perfect time to draft an eventual replacement for Rogers (who will be 31 in July). The Niners like big physical CB's and it's worth noting that all the current 49ers CB's are above 190lbs. Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama), Janoris Jenkins (North Alabama), Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina) and Josh Robinson (Central Florida) are possible selections.


Remember, this analysis applies only to the 1st round. Do you agree with my rational? Who would you draft if you were GM?

I do not accept your premise that Coby Fleener will be gone by pick #30.

I say RG/OC are the most pressing needs, then WR, LB (need more depth), RB (to replace Gore).
If there are no good enough OL available at #30 I would take a look at Lamar Miller or David Wilson.

I agree with OTC. We have a hole at RG, but we have our designated starters at every other spot. I think this is the perfect BPA draft scenario.

Ok then. Worst player available...

Good post.

I'm hoping Fleener is there. RG is crucial. Maybe, since JH like his players to be versatile, he trys ADavis at RG and Boone at RT? If that happend, it would sure open up possibilities in the draft.

Originally posted by LasVegasWally:
Good post.

I'm hoping Fleener is there. RG is crucial. Maybe, since JH like his players to be versatile, he trys ADavis at RG and Boone at RT? If that happend, it would sure open up possibilities in the draft.

i dont think Davis is a bad tackle, he should leave him where hes at. he had chilo next to him so he was bound to get some of chilos mistakes blamed on him. not saying he never struggles but hes young and i think he is very good at times.

RG is a huge hole. The only one we really have. I still want Fleener. A 6'6" target who is fast and has good hands would do this offense some good. More than a RG. We can get a G in the 2nd or 3rd. And yes I would trade up for Fleener. He would help us on 3rd downs and in the RZ. 2 areas where we struggle dearly.

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
RG is a huge hole. The only one we really have. I still want Fleener. A 6'6" target who is fast and has good hands would do this offense some good. More than a RG. We can get a G in the 2nd or 3rd. And yes I would trade up for Fleener. He would help us on 3rd downs and in the RZ. 2 areas where we struggle dearly.

I completely agree except I'm still iffy on trading up for Fleener. I'd go BPA (hopefully Fleener) in the 1st and G in the 2nd.

Originally posted by Karma:

I think your argument actually persuades FOR taking the best player available. We really only have one position open with no replacement with any starting experience (RG), but you point out a need for depth on the defensive line and an eventual need for a WR. Remember, we will only have two WRs signed after this season (Crabtree and Manningham).

We also have a need, in my estimation, for a young RB to push Dixon. Gore isn't getting younger and Hunter might not be an every-down-back. Dixon brings great energy to Special Teams but hasn't been able to get in on offense.

Harbaugh has proven that he wants competition at every position so I think we are in a perfect position to draft for best player available. our biggest NEED is a position that regularly produces solid players later in the draft. We can just sit back and watch talent fall to us at #30. Teams always make bone-headed picks in the first round which pushes talent back. Fleener is a nice prospect, but he isn't the only talented player that could fall.

Yeah Doc, that was actually a great breakdown for why to take the BPA.

Karma, couldn't agree more, RB is a huge need especially in Harbaugh's offense. Everyone was hating on the idea earlier, but I still would like us to get Lamar Miller with our first, maybe a possible trade down scenario to 35-40 while picking up extra picks as well.

Originally posted by doc_brown_:
Looking at the current roster leads me to believe that the 49ers will not draft the BPA and will instead draft a player to fill a specific need. Here's an outline of the projected starting lineups and where the weaknesses are.

QB: Alex Smith
RB: Frank Gore
FB: Bruce Miller
WR: Michael Crabtree
WR: Mario Manningham/Randy Moss
TE: Vernon Davis

Coby Fleener will be long gone by the time the Niners pick and trading up in the first round isn't our style. The Niners already have very talented "skill position" players and even though I do envision them drafting a WR at some point, I do not see them taking a WR or TE in the 1st round.

LT: Joe Staley
LG: Mike Iupati
C: Johnathan Goodwin
RG: ??????????
RT: Anthony Davis

The Niners did not fill this hole in free agency and did not re-sign Adam Snyder. Daniel Kilgore was chosen in the 5th round of last years draft and will either start or provide depth. We'll assume the latter, which makes RG an area of huge concern. We saw last year how a weak interior translates into inconsistent offensive production. Kevin Zeitler (Wisconsin), Cordy Glenn (Georgia), Amini Silatolu (Midwestern State) and Brandon Brooks (Miami OH) are possible selections.

DE: Ray McDonald
DT: Isaac Sopoaga
DE: Justin Smith

Sopoaga and Smith are old and there isn't much depth here (Dobbs, Jean Francois, Tukufu). D-lineman coming out of college usually need at least a year to adjust to the NFL. It's safe to say that if the Niners draft a defensive player in the first round, he will not start (All 11 starters will be back for 2012). Therefore it makes sense to draft an eventual replacement for Sopoaga or Smith. He can develop while providing depth along the line. Nick Perry (USC), Jared Crick (Nebraska), Vinny Curry (Marshall), Jerel Worthy (Michigan State), Kendall Reyes (Connecticut) and Devon Still (Penn State) are possible selections. It's worth noting that all the current Niner d-lineman are heavier than 275lbs.

OLB: Ahmad Brooks
ILB: Navarro Bowman
ILB: Patrick Willis
OLB: Aldon Smith

Our LB's are young and talented. Excellent starters and good depth (Haralson, Grant, Gooden). No need to spend a 1st round pick here.

CB: Carlos Rogers
CB: Tarell Brown/Chris Cullliver
SS: Donte Whitner
FS: Dashon Goldson

The Niners are set at safety for the next few years. If there is a CB rated highly on Baalke's draft board who is available at #30, I personally wouldn't be upset if the Niners pulled the trigger on him. Brown is good but not great. Culliver had a good amount of playing time last season, which bodes well for his development, but we'll have to wait and see if he can be a #2. The CB depth is encouraging but also questionable (Cox and Brock). CB's coming out of college usually need a year to adjust to the NFL, so this could be the perfect time to draft an eventual replacement for Rogers (who will be 31 in July). The Niners like big physical CB's and it's worth noting that all the current 49ers CB's are above 190lbs. Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama), Janoris Jenkins (North Alabama), Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina) and Josh Robinson (Central Florida) are possible selections.


Remember, this analysis applies only to the 1st round. Do you agree with my rational? Who would you draft if you were GM?

Couple notes:

1. Not sure Fleener is a first rounder.
2. Some of guys on your list of potential DL draftees are OLB prospects. Curry and Perry are either 43 DE's, or 34 conversion OLB's. Crick is too light for the 34 DE right now. He is not even 280 pounds, and has short arms (32 inches).
3. Reyes makes sense as a 34 DE, and Worthy and Still could end up as NT's in the 34, but both seem like a better fit in a 43 defense as tackles.
4. The Niners are not really set at safety long term. Goldson is on a one year, and Whitner's contract expires the year after.
5. Goodwin graded out poorly in 2011 (23rd overall and 32nd in pass protection). I think the team may look to upgrade next year in this position, and could draft a guy that projects there in 2013.
6. I agree with the majority of your assessment.