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An ACTUALLY Realistic Offseason Plan

I'm not going to give dollar values because so much of it is fluid or misinformation (e.g. brooks true contract isn't anywhere near as rich as how it's being reported). I will give the moves that I think should happen.

1. Re-sign Alex Smith. Like him or not he's the best option for this team for the next couple of years. Kaep isn't ready and there's no sense shelling out for Manning with his health concerns. (Granted, if he can somehow prove hes 100% healthy and wants to come to SF on a deal that is almost purely incentive based, then sure, welcome aboard.)

2. Extend similar, solid offers to Brandon Carr and Carlos Rogers. First one to take it gets it. I'm not saying low-ball, but make a decent offer and see if a guy would rather go hunting for more money from a bottom feeder or take a good contract to play for aSB contender with the kind of pass rush that will make them look good every game. If neither one bites, move on. The niner front seven will make mediocre corners look better so there is value to be had in not overpaying at this position.

3. Re-sign Josh Morgan to a lower but incentive-laden deal. He's been solid when he's healthy and he's a niner guy.

4. Tag Goldson. Safety tag is cheap and Goldson plays better with motivation - needing to get that next contract will keep him hungry.

That takes care of the guys currently on the roster. After these 4 items, the team essentially has guys pencilled in at every starting/key backup position except RG and WR1. Backup G is also something of a concern, as potentially is depth on the D-line and at safety.

So at this point the team has the draft and free agency to find: a WR1, a RG, and depth at G, S, and DT.

The Saints will be a key here. If they have to franchise Brees then both Nicks and Colston become available. If they don't, then only Colston will be a FA. Both should be Niner targets with Nicks as the priority and Colston as a fallback if both Nicks and WRs Bowe (likely tagged) and Jackson are unavailable/too expensive. I'm going to assume that nicks is franchised, and that neither Bowe nor Jackson is available. Colston I think is achievable and fits the niner scheme as a bigger guy with good route-running skills. Because this is supposed to be hyper realistic, i'm going to assume they strike out here anyway.

If the team can fill the WR1 hole in free agency (in this case, with Colston), then they should look to the draft for the other needs. The WR1 signing would likely use up the last of any real space anyway, after signing one of the 2 CBs and tagging Goldson.

Round 1 - Hill, Fleener, or Konz. It will depend on who is available and what happens in free agency, but each of these 3 makes good sense. Hill is a size/speed guy that gives you #1 upside as well as a useful skill from day 1 as a top-off deep threat. Fleener gives you the same thing, but also ahs the added versatility of being able to slot in at TE or WR (although he won't run as well as hill). Konz actually fills the biggest need(s) - he could start at G for a couple of seasons and then transition to his natural C role when Goodwin is done. Assumption - Fleener

Round 2 - Zeitler, J. Robinson, Marvin Jones, Minnifield. If Konz isn't picked in the first then Zeitler, his Wisconsin teammate, should get a look in round 2 as a starting-caliber G. Josh Robinson gives you blazing speed as a young corner and kick returner, especially if Rogers or Carr isn't on board and if Ginn isn't back. Marvin Jones is a physical specemin of a receiver with decent college production, and Minnifield is a good Corner/safety hybrid prospect who would likely benefit greatly from having the kind of pass rush that the niners can generate. Assumption - Zeitler.

Those first 2 picks are where they have to fill their starter holes. Fleener basically takes the WR spot of no FA is signed, by basically being one of the 3 or 4 best receiving threats whether you want to call him a WR or a TE. Zeitler slots in at G. The rest of the draft should focus on depth at G/C, DT, S, and WR.

So we are left with:

Offense

QB Alex
RB1 Gore
RB2 Hunter
FB Miller
WR1 Crabtree
WR2 Morgan
WR3/TE2 Fleener
TE1 Davis
TE2/3 Walker
LT Staley
LG Iupati
C Goodwin
RG Zeitler
RT Davis
Backup G Person/Kilgore/Draftee
Backup T Boone

Defense

DTs Smith, McDonald, Draftee
NT Sopoaga, RJF
OLBs Smith, Brooks, Haralson
ILBs Willis, Bowman, Grant
CBs Carr/Rogers, Brown, Culliver
SS Whitner
FS Goldson


So there you have it. Not a lot of major changes. Basically it's the same team as right now. This is what I feel is realistic for this team - sign a couple of their own guys, make a choice at CB, take a swing at a WR1, draft a receiving threat and an interior lineman early, shore up the depth issues late. Let the guys continue to develop and see what they can be with a full training camp and a full year together under their belts.
[ Edited by DarkKnight1680 on Mar 1, 2012 at 8:52 AM ]
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Keep our guys, add a big time WR. Can't argue!
I dont see anything about filling the backup holes in the WR squad that are currently filled with Hastings and Swain.
Originally posted by LoneWolf:
I dont see anything about filling the backup holes in the WR squad that are currently filled with Hastings and Swain.

And I dont see anything groundbreaking or new to the point where a new thread needed to be made either.

I agree with most of your sentiments OP.
Originally posted by LoneWolf:
I dont see anything about filling the backup holes in the WR squad that are currently filled with Hastings and Swain.

with Colston(or any FA receiver), Hill 1st round and Marvin jones or someone similar I think that would be enough. I really think we draft 2 if not 3 receivers depending on free agency.
FLEENER, FLEENER......the more I read about him, the more I like him......I'm starting to think he may not be there.
Originally posted by LoneWolf:
I dont see anything about filling the backup holes in the WR squad that are currently filled with Hastings and Swain.

Well, assuming that Fleener is added (or Hill, or Jones) and that they take a WR later in the draft as I mentioned, you'd have a roster with Crabtree, Morgan, Fleener, Davis, Walker, Williams, and a late draft pick. That's 7 pass catchers not including any FA pickups. Assume 1 guy in Free Agency (whether a WR1 level guy or just a solid backup) and you've got 8 pass catchers for a team that will rarely trot more than 4 on to the field. If you assume that Crabtree/Morgan/Fleener/Davis give you the best combination of size, speed, skill, blocking, etc then the other 3/4 guys are all depth. Hastings, Swain, Bogan, Mathews, etc would all be non-factors. This also assumes they let Ginn walk. He may be retianed as a return specialist so that gives you another potential backup receiver.
Can't help but agree with pretty much anything you've said. The team has some clear needs, but few enough that a pretty logical plan like this identifies and fills most of them.

I would actually like to see the Niners and Dashon forgo the franchise tag and get a deal done quickly. The tag number is cheap and not a hindrance to the cap but I think both he and the front office want him here long term and I think something in the 5 year 30 mil range, 10-12 guaranteed should/could get done quickly if they both get to work. That would free us up to tag Rogers. It's not ideal as far as finding a top end WR in FA is concerned, but if Colston and Vincent Jackson are the only two "elite" or at least top tier WR to truly hit unrestricted free agency, then they are both going to see big paydays. Probably bigger than we are looking to spend and more than they or worth. If either comes here on a fair deal I'll run through a box of tissues cleaning up after myself. Point is, if Goldson signs a deal we can tag Rogers which will be expensive and a hit to the cap but will give us a proven commodity at CB and his age next year won't be a concern. That will leave us with only a little caproom left after Alex reaches a deal, but we should still have enough to resign Morgan and get another WR who falls through the cracks like Meachem or Royal. Then we can focus solely on the offensive side of the ball in the early rounds of the draft, and pick a high upside rookie that meet Baalke's height weight speed requirements to sit behind Carlos and be the nickel LCB when Carlos leaves next offseason. Culliver gets another year of grooming and in 2013 plays LCB in base and slot in nickel packages.

Draft should look something like
1) WR -Wright (we'd have to trade up but he's my draft crush - screw the combine 40) or Hill or Fleener
2) G/C - Zeitler or Ben Jones
3) RB - Doug Martin (unlikely), Chris Polk, Turbin (slight reach)
4) CB - Jamell Fleming, Coryell Judie or a complete and pleasant surprise ala the Cully pick

Then again BPA, especially with the late picks in each round should be strict policy. No use reaching to fill a need if you aren't getting top end talent.
[ Edited by 2Legit2Quit on Feb 29, 2012 at 11:37 PM ]
Then again this scenario probably won't go down. After last year's contact fiasco with Goldson thinking he's going to bang out a deal in less than 5 days, before the franchise tag deadline, is pretty ludicrous.
Originally posted by 2Legit2Quit:
Can't help but agree with pretty much anything you've said. The team has some clear needs, but few enough that a pretty logical plan like this identifies and fills most of them.

I would actually like to see the Niners and Dashon forgo the franchise tag and get a deal done quickly. The tag number is cheap and not a hindrance to the cap but I think both he and the front office want him here long term and I think something in the 5 year 30 mil range, 10-12 guaranteed should/could get done quickly if they both get to work. That would free us up to tag Rogers. It's not ideal as far as finding a top end WR in FA is concerned, but if Colston and Vincent Jackson are the only two "elite" or at least top tier WR to truly hit unrestricted free agency, then they are both going to see big paydays. Probably bigger than we are looking to spend and more than they or worth. If either comes here on a fair deal I'll run through a box of tissues cleaning up after myself. Point is, if Goldson signs a deal we can tag Rogers which will be expensive and a hit to the cap but will give us a proven commodity at CB and his age next year won't be a concern. That will leave us with only a little caproom left after Alex reaches a deal, but we should still have enough to resign Morgan and get another WR who falls through the cracks like Meachem or Royal. Then we can focus solely on the offensive side of the ball in the early rounds of the draft, and pick a high upside rookie that meet Baalke's height weight speed requirements to play sit behind Carlos and be the nickel LCB when Carlos. Culliver gets another year of grooming and play LCB in base and slot in nickel packages.

Draft should look something like
1) WR -Wright (we'd have to trade up but he's my draft crush - screw the combine 40) or Hill or Fleener
2) G/C - Zeitler or Ben Jones
3) RB - Doug Martin (unlikely), Chris Polk, Turbin (slight reach)
4) CB - Jamell Fleming, Coryell Judie or a complete and pleasant surprise ala the Cully pick

Then again BPA, especially with the late picks in each round should be strict policy. No use reaching to fill a need if you aren't getting top end talent.

I'm not necessarily against signed Goldson long term but he's a boom/bust kind of guy (makes bug plays or gives up big plays) and I get the feeling with him that he plays better when he's got a chip on his shoulder. I have some concerns about what a long term deal could do to his fire. And tagging any CB is prohibitively expensive - you're generally much better off tagging the safety and doing the deal with the CB.

If the team does trade up to take Wright, and re-signs morgan, then getting any FA WR is sort of a waste. Too many guys and not enough passes at that point. Vernon and Crabs are going to see reps, and if you use a 1st rounder on a guy and bring back morgan then those are your 4 guys. Signing a Royal or Meachem would be sort of redundant at that point, especially with money starting to get tight.

Wright may even fall to #30 after his combine, pending his Pro-day. I think the top 2 picks will include an OL and a pass-catcher, but you never know with this team - they surprised us last year at the draft. I'd like to see them gamble on Dwight Jones in rd 3 or 4. His measurables and production are great but his effort is lacking at times. Seems like aperfect fit under a guy like JH who knows how to light the fire. Not often you get a chance to get a 6'3/230/4.45 WR who just caught 85/1200/12 in a pro style (non-spread) offense in the 3rd or 4th round.
I like this mock offseason a lot. And I especially like that you mention Konz and Zeitler. Wisconsin O Linemen often work out well and are fundamentally sound and big powerful guys. We do have a need at C with an aging guy and RG where we have not found our true starter and backup. We can never have Chilo again. That's for sure.

I will say this. If the top tier WR / TE / CB are gone I would be real happy to add some WI O Linemen like Konz and Zeitler. They fill needs in other ways. And they may be better than reaching for a WR at #30 or #60.
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
I like this mock offseason a lot. And I especially like that you mention Konz and Zeitler. Wisconsin O Linemen often work out well and are fundamentally sound and big powerful guys. We do have a need at C with an aging guy and RG where we have not found our true starter and backup. We can never have Chilo again. That's for sure.

I will say this. If the top tier WR / TE / CB are gone I would be real happy to add some WI O Linemen like Konz and Zeitler. They fill needs in other ways. And they may be better than reaching for a WR at #30 or #60.

Konz has the higher rating and he provides more versatility but I have a serious crush on Zeitler. He's the definition of a road grader and can really flatten guys and get to the second level. I'm a little concerned about Konz's BP numbers, but if neither of Hill or Fleener are there I'd take him and get him in the weight room asap. Part of me thinks low BP numbers and great production mean that if you got him bulked up he'd be a monster.
Originally posted by DarkKnight1680:
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
I like this mock offseason a lot. And I especially like that you mention Konz and Zeitler. Wisconsin O Linemen often work out well and are fundamentally sound and big powerful guys. We do have a need at C with an aging guy and RG where we have not found our true starter and backup. We can never have Chilo again. That's for sure.

I will say this. If the top tier WR / TE / CB are gone I would be real happy to add some WI O Linemen like Konz and Zeitler. They fill needs in other ways. And they may be better than reaching for a WR at #30 or #60.

Konz has the higher rating and he provides more versatility but I have a serious crush on Zeitler. He's the definition of a road grader and can really flatten guys and get to the second level. I'm a little concerned about Konz's BP numbers, but if neither of Hill or Fleener are there I'd take him and get him in the weight room asap. Part of me thinks low BP numbers and great production mean that if you got him bulked up he'd be a monster.

I think Konz is a legitmate possibility at #30. If Hill and Fleener are gone (I hope not but they may be) going with Konz is good I think. I think he is worth that value. I have a lot of relatives in WI and watch a lot of Badgers Football. Their O Line is for real. Year after year they turn out awesome guys. I really like Russell Wilson too but he is too short for the NFL. Good player though. Stronger and more accurate arm than people give him credit for.
Really like this move. Adding Colston and Fleener to our offence would do wonders in the RZ. The big question is like you said in op can we really afford to add Colston and the rest?
2 RGs and 2 RTs, Darknight? That's one overloaded line!