Originally posted by fister30:
Is the consensus the 49ers will pick up a WR in the first? I know out of the top four picks maybe two are WR's but I am not sold on the 1st as a WR.
i wouldn't say its a lock right now. Despite the majority opinion of Crabtree not being a #1, the #s in our offense and the opinion of the FO state otherwise and he is only half way through his rookie deal so the team is going to keep watching his growth. We dont need a "#1" we just need a versatile deep threat.
Manningham was the #2 for 3 years before Victor Cruz broke out this season, he put up nearly identical #s to Crabtree in 09 and 10 and was even more of deep threat then Crabtree. He was dropped to #3 due to Cruz's emergence and even then put up slightly less the numbers Josh Morgan was projected to finish the season with as our most productive WR at the time. Think about that our "#1 through 5 games" was on pace to barely outpace the #3 of the Giants in production.....
Manningham in 2010: 60 rec for 944 yards 9 TDs
Crabtree in 2011: 72 rec for 874 yards 2 TDs(stupid offense not targeting WRs in the redzone o:)
Manningham comes from more pass happy/downfield more often type of offense but discounting Manningham's nearly non-existent rookie year he has a career average of 14.5 YPC compared to Crabtree's 12.8
Then add in Moss who the quintessential deep threat, If we have the motivated Randy(and still fast) on our team(I dont think we would've signed him if he wasnt the old Randy, after the failed Braylon experiment) then he will take the top off of D's to open it up for Manningham, VD, and Crabtree.
Despite what people think on here, our top 3 WRs will be one hell of a problem for opposing teams, add in VD and we're more then capable of destroying teams through the air. So we already have the personel, but will our offense evolve from what it was 2011 and take advantage of the talent or will it continue to underachieve thanks in part to multiple reasons.
- Greg Roman's conservative play calls
- Alex Smith's short leash for preventing turnovers
- WRs inability to separate or in some cases flat out catch
In year 2 I see all of these reasons being corrected.
Back on topic, No I do not see WR as a must in round 1. If we dont land Schwartz today then we'd better go Guard in round 1 for Konz or even trade up for DeCastro. Right now our priorities are honestly
1a. Guard - Kilgore a 2nd year borderline day 2 pick is currently slated to start. Clearly need to sign Geoff Schwartz or go guard in round 1 if we dont land him.
1b. Center - Without Snyder we dont have a backup center on the roster and Goodwin's play could fall off at any point and it was already somewhat suspect anyway.
2. Receiver - As of now our "#1" is locked up for 3 years(3rd is voidable) and "#2" is under contract for 2 more years, #3 in on a 1 year deal, #4 is under contract for 2 more years. We can easily afford to look to the middle/late rounds for a "#1 in training" that would be able to take over if say the Moss experiment fails, or in 2 years Manningham leaves in FA or Crabtree's contract gets voided. Maybe we carry 6 receivers this year and also draft a KR specialist as our 6th WR and pair him with Perrish Cox on KRs and PRs.
After that you could argue the various ranks of the other needs as they are all for backup roles or would end up playing behind players like Goldson, Willis, Ray Mac, etc.
sorry for the mega long read, but if Stephen Hill is there at 30 and I'm picking between him or BPA other positions I'd take Hill in a heart beat.
[ Edited by sfout on Mar 20, 2012 at 12:06 PM ]