SFOUT: Pre-Combine Mock

My pre-combine mock off season, I couldn't resist waiting until after the combine.

RETAINED - The final cap # is in and at a median of $37M(according to John Clayton of ESPN we have $39M, MM of CSNBA says $30M and 9erCapHell claims $37M so we'll go with 9erCH's #s) before we cut/trade Spencer I think we will be able to retain all of the core and nearly all of the role players. The rumored #'s of the top FA's for us put right around $24-25M, leaving us with $13-16M in remaining cap space to re-sign the ST/role players and target an outside WR addition. A small note, if we retain Tukuafu he'll be competing against Williams for a roster spot as Dobbs clearly has proven to be more valuable of the 2 UDFAs from this past season.

Alex Smith
Dashon Goldson
Carlos Rogers
Ahmad Brooks
Adam Snyder
Josh Morgan
Blake Costanzo
CJ Spillman
Larry Grant
Tavares Gooden
Tramaine Brock
Will Tukuafu

NOT RETAINED - Only surprise is Ginn; He'll probably ask for too much money but my main sticking point for this decision is his terrible offensive play, both Bogan and Graham would be great replacements from both a WR and KR standpoint, Bolden should he make the roster displayed great skill at returns in college.

Ted Ginn
Chilo Rachal
Moran Norris
Reggie Smith
Madieu Williams
Brett Swain

FREE AGENCY TARGETS - It goes without saying that the practice of our office is to retain our own then sift through the remaining "second tier" players for the diamond in the rough. All 5 of these guys are younger then 27 and have tons of potential. These are not signings but players we will definitely target.

Robert Meachem
Pierre Garcon
Mario Manningham
Laurent Robinson
Eddie Royal

My top 3 are probably Garcon, Robinson, Meachem but I wont speculate on which one we sign.

DRAFT -
1. Coby Fleener TE 6'6 252 - Fleener will provide great mismatches when paired with Davis and faster receiver, also opens up the lobs and jump balls in the red zone and 3rd down.

2. Brian Quick WR 6'3 1/2 222 - Like Fleener Quick has a big body he can use against smaller corners and even some safeties, his length will really help us in the passing game. Said to be more of 3rd rounder but I think a decent showing at the combine will boost him into the 60-70 pick range.

3. Terrell Manning OLB 6'3 233 - A riser but has displayed the skills of a complete linebacker, could be gone by this point and there is a good chance you could flip this pick with Quick after the combine.

4. Garth Gerhart C/G 6'1 308 - A versatile player we could groom to compete with Beeler for the future C & G spots. Should Goodwin go down either Snyder or Gerhart would be able to both RG or C.

5. Omar Bolden CB 5'10 198 - Injuries are a big flag, but with his skill set and ability in the return game I would be disappointed if we didn't give this guy a chance and let him compete against Holcomb for #5 spot.

6. TJ Graham WR 5'11 182 - The Senior bowl really put him on the map and I think he is the perfect type of player to target as #5/KR, also compete against Dontavia Bogan for the #5 role.

7. Sean Richardson S 6'2 213 - Watched a lot of Vandy games this year and Richardson's range really surprised me, could develop into a quality backup.

FULL DEPTH CHART

QB: Smith, Kaepernick, Tolzien
RB: Gore, Hunter, Dixon
FB: Miller
WR: Crabtree, Quick,
WR: Morgan, FREEAGENT, Bogan/Graham
TE: Davis, Fleener, Walker, Byham/Reuland
LT: Staley, Boone
LG: Iupati, Kilgore
OC: Goodwin
RG: Snyder, Gerhart
RT: Davis, Person
----------------------
DT: Smith, Dobbs
NT: Sopoaga, Williams/Tukuafu
DT: MacDonald, Francois
OLB: Haralson, Smith
MLB: Willis, Grant
MLB: Bowman, Gooden, Costanzo
OLB: Brooks, Manning
LCB: Brown, Brock, Holcomb/Bolden
RCB: Rogers, Culliver,
FS: Goldson, Legree, Jones
SS: Whitner, Spillman, Richardson
K: Akers
P: Lee
LS: Jennings

As usual, any comments or criticism? I will say that my one wildcard is Ahmad Brooks, I really had to force myself to say that we'd re-sign him. I really believe Aldon can step in this year and play all 3 downs with another OLB(Manning) added as depth while we use Demarcus Dobbs as our situational/nickel rusher.

Another note, I noticed that I unintentionally was able to create a roster with 4 TEs and still carry 5 WRs. Should definitely provide a great boost to our offense if we fill Moran Norris' spot with a TE like Reuland or Byham.

I do think we will bring in a UDFAs like Stanford RB Jeremy Stewart and Kansas State's Bryce Brown to compete against Dixon for the 3rd RB job.

Wouldn't be too upset if it fell that way. Although I think Gerhart will go a little lower than that, and I'm not sure we'd take him that high. Would hope we get a different OG/C there.

I'm still not sold on Quick, especially as a late 2nd rounder. If we were really dead set on taking a receiver in the 2nd round, I think I'd reach for Stephen Hill just because I have a feeling he won't be around when we pick in the 3rd.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Wouldn't be too upset if it fell that way. Although I think Gerhart will go a little lower than that, and I'm not sure we'd take him that high. Would hope we get a different OG/C there.

Agreed, I've seen too much fluctuation in the G/C ranks in the mid rounds and Gerhart is the one I've consistently seen with a 5th round grade so I guessed he'd improve rather then take a step back.

Originally posted by SF69ers:
I'm still not sold on Quick, especially as a late 2nd rounder. If we were really dead set on taking a receiver in the 2nd round, I think I'd reach for Stephen Hill just because I have a feeling he won't be around when we pick in the 3rd.

Hill would get my vote as the next option but I would need to see some really good route running and agility from him next week. Quick is raw but at this point is a more complete WR compared to Hill. If he runs well I'd gladly switch that pick from Quick to Hill :D

throw in a reasonably priced young CB FA and im as happy as can be

Originally posted by sfout:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Wouldn't be too upset if it fell that way. Although I think Gerhart will go a little lower than that, and I'm not sure we'd take him that high. Would hope we get a different OG/C there.

Agreed, I've seen too much fluctuation in the G/C ranks in the mid rounds and Gerhart is the one I've consistently seen with a 5th round grade so I guessed he'd improve rather then take a step back.

Originally posted by SF69ers:

I'm still not sold on Quick, especially as a late 2nd rounder. If we were really dead set on taking a receiver in the 2nd round, I think I'd reach for Stephen Hill just because I have a feeling he won't be around when we pick in the 3rd.

Hill would get my vote as the next option but I would need to see some really good route running and agility from him next week. Quick is raw but at this point is a more complete WR compared to Hill. If he runs well I'd gladly switch that pick from Quick to Hill :D

I have the same opinion on Quick as well. He's big, but just doesn't look like he'll be an explosive NFL player early on at least. I see the potential, but I worry he will just turn into a Michael Jenkins possession type of big receiver. I give him a late 3rd round grade. The NFL is quickly becoming a league of quick-twitch athletes where measurables like height and weight and to an extent -- straight line speed -- are starting to mean less and less, while quickness, strength/power, and technique mean more and more.

I mean, technique has always mattered, and NFL coaching is to develop it from wherever it currently is at, but when you get these small schoolers, there are often concerns with this, because at that level they can often get by on their pure athleticism and talent alone.

Manning's not a 3-4 LB, too small. I'm not a huge fan of Quick, he wasn't that great in the senior bowl practices. The only WR you targeted that I think really makes an impact is Garcon. So so mock IMO. I don't really like the draft, I don't think we get much better.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by sfout:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Wouldn't be too upset if it fell that way. Although I think Gerhart will go a little lower than that, and I'm not sure we'd take him that high. Would hope we get a different OG/C there.

Agreed, I've seen too much fluctuation in the G/C ranks in the mid rounds and Gerhart is the one I've consistently seen with a 5th round grade so I guessed he'd improve rather then take a step back.

Originally posted by SF69ers:
I'm still not sold on Quick, especially as a late 2nd rounder. If we were really dead set on taking a receiver in the 2nd round, I think I'd reach for Stephen Hill just because I have a feeling he won't be around when we pick in the 3rd.

Hill would get my vote as the next option but I would need to see some really good route running and agility from him next week. Quick is raw but at this point is a more complete WR compared to Hill. If he runs well I'd gladly switch that pick from Quick to Hill :D

I have the same opinion on Quick as well. He's big, but just doesn't look like he'll be an explosive NFL player early on at least. I see the potential, but I worry he will just turn into a Michael Jenkins possession type of big receiver. I give him a late 3rd round grade. The NFL is quickly becoming a league of quick-twitch athletes where measurables like height and weight and to an extent -- straight line speed -- are starting to mean less and less, while quickness, strength/power, and technique mean more and more.

I mean, technique has always mattered, and NFL coaching is to develop it from wherever it currently is at, but when you get these small schoolers, there are often concerns with this, because at that level they can often get by on their pure athleticism and talent alone.

Yea I am sort of being obstinent with Quick, I'd much rather draft Hill, both are raw but I'm just waiting and watching to see who shows up the better player next week.

Originally posted by WillistheWall:
Manning's not a 3-4 LB, too small. I'm not a huge fan of Quick, he wasn't that great in the senior bowl practices. The only WR you targeted that I think really makes an impact is Garcon. So so mock IMO. I don't really like the draft, I don't think we get much better.

Calculated risk on Manning, if I had to change it I'd probably say Brandon Lindsey from Pitt or Jonathan Massoqoi from Troy.

Originally posted by sfout:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by sfout:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Wouldn't be too upset if it fell that way. Although I think Gerhart will go a little lower than that, and I'm not sure we'd take him that high. Would hope we get a different OG/C there.

Agreed, I've seen too much fluctuation in the G/C ranks in the mid rounds and Gerhart is the one I've consistently seen with a 5th round grade so I guessed he'd improve rather then take a step back.

Originally posted by SF69ers:
I'm still not sold on Quick, especially as a late 2nd rounder. If we were really dead set on taking a receiver in the 2nd round, I think I'd reach for Stephen Hill just because I have a feeling he won't be around when we pick in the 3rd.

Hill would get my vote as the next option but I would need to see some really good route running and agility from him next week. Quick is raw but at this point is a more complete WR compared to Hill. If he runs well I'd gladly switch that pick from Quick to Hill :D

I have the same opinion on Quick as well. He's big, but just doesn't look like he'll be an explosive NFL player early on at least. I see the potential, but I worry he will just turn into a Michael Jenkins possession type of big receiver. I give him a late 3rd round grade. The NFL is quickly becoming a league of quick-twitch athletes where measurables like height and weight and to an extent -- straight line speed -- are starting to mean less and less, while quickness, strength/power, and technique mean more and more.

I mean, technique has always mattered, and NFL coaching is to develop it from wherever it currently is at, but when you get these small schoolers, there are often concerns with this, because at that level they can often get by on their pure athleticism and talent alone.

Yea I am sort of being obstinent with Quick, I'd much rather draft Hill, both are raw but I'm just waiting and watching to see who shows up the better player next week.

Originally posted by WillistheWall:
Manning's not a 3-4 LB, too small. I'm not a huge fan of Quick, he wasn't that great in the senior bowl practices. The only WR you targeted that I think really makes an impact is Garcon. So so mock IMO. I don't really like the draft, I don't think we get much better.

Calculated risk on Manning, if I had to change it I'd probably say Brandon Lindsey from Pitt or Jonathan Massoqoi from Troy.

Yeah that'd be better, I'm a big fan of Lindsey, Jake Bequette, Cam Johnson, and a few other guys.

There is a lot to like here, sfout... Appreciate the work that went into this too...

My only qualm with your mock (and I like Quick, only in the third round instead of the second), is the pretty obvious need of getting some D-line depth somewhere in the first 4 rounds. Justin Smith, McDonald, and Brooks played virtually every defensive snap this past year so getting an additional DE as well as an OLB that can hold the edge (probably a guy that weighs 245-255 lbs. or so and runs in the 4.7 - 4.8 range at least. Those type of OLBs are not easy to find hence the necessity of re-signing Brooks.

This draft is stacked with really good DL prospects so passing up one of them would be a big mistake IMHO.

Now, I don't have any problem with your late round picks (or Fleener....love that pick!) but I would probably adjust rounds 2-4 to try to give those key guys on defense a breather...

Given that the Niners are indeed able to re-sign their key FAs.....here are some possibilities for a slightly modified version of your draft...

Round 1....TE Fleener
Round 2....DE J. Crick or OLB V. Curry or DT Kendall Reyes or DT Brandon Thompson (whomever falls to them)
Round 3....WR Quick or DE/OLB Cam Johnson or DE T. Guyton
Round 4....OLB Jake Bequette or OLB Jacquies Smith or DE/OLB Brett Roy or RB Vick Ballard or WR T. Streeter or OG Lucas Nix
Rounds 5-7 As you posted...

Cheers!

Originally posted by nw9erfan:
There is a lot to like here, sfout... Appreciate the work that went into this too...

My only qualm with your mock (and I like Quick, only in the third round instead of the second), is the pretty obvious need of getting some D-line depth somewhere in the first 4 rounds. Justin Smith, McDonald, and Brooks played virtually every defensive snap this past year so getting an additional DE as well as an OLB that can hold the edge (probably a guy that weighs 245-255 lbs. or so and runs in the 4.7 - 4.8 range at least. Those type of OLBs are not easy to find hence the necessity of re-signing Brooks.

This draft is stacked with really good DL prospects so passing up one of them would be a big mistake IMHO.

Now, I don't have any problem with your late round picks (or Fleener....love that pick!) but I would probably adjust rounds 2-4 to try to give those key guys on defense a breather...

Given that the Niners are indeed able to re-sign their key FAs.....here are some possibilities for a slightly modified version of your draft...

Round 1....TE Fleener
Round 2....DE J. Crick or OLB V. Curry or DT Kendall Reyes or DT Brandon Thompson (whomever falls to them)
Round 3....WR Quick or DE/OLB Cam Johnson or DE T. Guyton
Round 4....OLB Jake Bequette or OLB Jacquies Smith or DE/OLB Brett Roy or RB Vick Ballard or WR T. Streeter or OG Lucas Nix
Rounds 5-7 As you posted...

Cheers!

I like this mock better, but I hope we can retain the core of our FA's, especially Rodgers, Morgan, and Brooks. Alex will stay for sure. Same with the ST guys

Originally posted by nw9erfan:
There is a lot to like here, sfout... Appreciate the work that went into this too...

My only qualm with your mock (and I like Quick, only in the third round instead of the second), is the pretty obvious need of getting some D-line depth somewhere in the first 4 rounds. Justin Smith, McDonald, and Brooks played virtually every defensive snap this past year so getting an additional DE as well as an OLB that can hold the edge (probably a guy that weighs 245-255 lbs. or so and runs in the 4.7 - 4.8 range at least. Those type of OLBs are not easy to find hence the necessity of re-signing Brooks.

This draft is stacked with really good DL prospects so passing up one of them would be a big mistake IMHO.

Now, I don't have any problem with your late round picks (or Fleener....love that pick!) but I would probably adjust rounds 2-4 to try to give those key guys on defense a breather...

Given that the Niners are indeed able to re-sign their key FAs.....here are some possibilities for a slightly modified version of your draft...

Round 1....TE Fleener
Round 2....DE J. Crick or OLB V. Curry or DT Kendall Reyes or DT Brandon Thompson (whomever falls to them)
Round 3....WR Quick or DE/OLB Cam Johnson or DE T. Guyton
Round 4....OLB Jake Bequette or OLB Jacquies Smith or DE/OLB Brett Roy or RB Vick Ballard or WR T. Streeter or OG Lucas Nix
Rounds 5-7 As you posted...

Cheers!

So what you're saying is that besides his draft picks, you like his draft? lol

I like both Mocks above however Nw9er may be a little optomistic about that 2nd round pick, hard to see one if any of those players falling to the bottom of the second.

Sfout's mock probably has Quick a bit high, great physical speciman but I want to see if he can catch the ball away from his body more in workouts before penciling him in there. The one worrisome thing I've noticed about his tape is how he lets almost everything into his body which leads to him double catching the ball quite a bit. That wont work in the NFL or even preseason (see RoJo).

What do you guys think about Tank Carder anywher after the 4th? If he's there he could be the BPA, and could take Goodens spot by being a special teams demon while much more capable as a backup possibly at both ILB & OLB spots (but not being counted on as the primary rushing OLB). Amazing tackler with speed, a ballhawk who find a way to make plays, and has shown some ability to rush the passer... He could start off as a swiss army knife type backup for the LB group and groomed into playing opposite Aldon as the OLB who will drop into coverage if needed allowing Aldon to do what he does best, rush the passer.

Originally posted by 5280High:
I like both Mocks above however Nw9er may be a little optomistic about that 2nd round pick, hard to see one if any of those players falling to the bottom of the second.

Sfout's mock probably has Quick a bit high, great physical speciman but I want to see if he can catch the ball away from his body more in workouts before penciling him in there. The one worrisome thing I've noticed about his tape is how he lets almost everything into his body which leads to him double catching the ball quite a bit. That wont work in the NFL or even preseason (see RoJo).

What do you guys think about Tank Carder anywher after the 4th? If he's there he could be the BPA, and could take Goodens spot by being a special teams demon while much more capable as a backup possibly at both ILB & OLB spots (but not being counted on as the primary rushing OLB). Amazing tackler with speed, a ballhawk who find a way to make plays, and has shown some ability to rush the passer... He could start off as a swiss army knife type backup for the LB group and groomed into playing opposite Aldon as the OLB who will drop into coverage if needed allowing Aldon to do what he does best, rush the passer.

I like the idea as long as Carder can get to 240 LBS or above.

Originally posted by SF69ers:

I'm still not sold on Quick, especially as a late 2nd rounder. If we were really dead set on taking a receiver in the 2nd round, I think I'd reach for Stephen Hill just because I have a feeling he won't be around when we pick in the 3rd.

Agree. Would really want Hill and Fleener in first two rounds.