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first round WR - be very, very careful...

BPA is the way to go all the way.

We really need a WR but we can't overshoot the draft position. I'll throw in the TE as well.

1st Round - Kendall Wright (If we got him at our pick that would be great but he probably won't be there)
2nd Round - Sanu (early 2nd), Jeffrey, Floyd (middle second) but probably go higher, Fleener early 2nd
3rd Round - Brian Quick (he may rise up the draft boards with a great 40 time)
lol at Freddie Mitchell.
Originally posted by Oldschool9erfan:
BPA is the way to go all the way.

We really need a WR but we can't overshoot the draft position. I'll throw in the TE as well.

1st Round - Kendall Wright (If we got him at our pick that would be great but he probably won't be there)
2nd Round - Sanu (early 2nd), Jeffrey, Floyd (middle second) but probably go higher, Fleener early 2nd
3rd Round - Brian Quick (he may rise up the draft boards with a great 40 time)
wtf?

wright may be there by our pick but i highlt highly doubt it many teams have him as best WR in draft he shouldnt get outside top 20

hloyd has 0 chance of getting even outside top 25 and should go top 10
2011 AJ Green, Gerogia (4th pick Cincinnati) Julio Jones, Alabama (6th pick Atlanta) Jonathon Baldwin, Pitt (26th pick KC)

2010 Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech (22nd pick - Denver) Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State (24th pick - Dallas)

2009 Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland (7th pick - Oakland) Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech (10th pick - San Francisco) Jeremy Maclin, Missouri (19th pick - Philadelphia) Percy Harvin, Florida (22nd pick - Minnesota) Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina (29th pick - NY Giants) Kenny Britt, Rutgers (30th pick - Tennessee)

If you take any combination of 5 of these players, you have the best reciever core in the NFL. I would argue that the only WR worse then Crabtree on this list is DHB. And he's our #1 right now.....Macklin, Harvin, Nicks, and Britt were all selected after Crabs and have produced more so far.
Originally posted by mike:
Originally posted by boomer49er:
Let's look at this mathematically. Assuming that NFL players are normally distributed along a bell curve......

There are about 1700 players on rosters in the NFL at any given moment. These players all put together have a median level of talent, and within one standard deviation above or below that level are just about 68% of the players in the NFL. That's about 1156 players that are statistically average. That leaves about 32% of players that lay outside of "average".....only half of that number can be considered "above-average".....That's 272 players total that are above average. To place them in the "Great" category they logically must be a standard deviation above the players that are just above average. That's only about 2.5% of players in the league, or about 43 players. Once you get to four standard deviations above average you get to the very best (or very worst) players in the league. On the positive side of the curve you have your future Hall-of-Famers, but that's only about .15% of the entire league, or about 3 players.

That's why so many first rounders are considered busts by people, there are only so many players that can be considered great.
Well yeah, on a 52 man roster many of those guys make their money as backups and/or special teamers. Of course they're going to be average at best. Your stats are skewed.

Cut out everyone except for your star guys, then compare across the league your stars to everyone elses. You don't draft a 1st rounder expecting him to be a career special teamer(hi ted ginn). Last season 16 receivers had 1100+ yds, guess which teams those guys were on? Generally the ones with potent successful passing games. It might be a ying-yang thing where poor qb play means mediocre looking receivers and vice versa, but clearly you want to be one of those teams with elite playmakers surrounding their quarterbacks.
What? My "stats" are "skewed"? I didn't give you any stats because I don't have any data to give you stats from. I'm explaining how a normal distribution along a bell curve works. What it's explaining is that the biggest part of the NFL just under 70% is average players with another 16% being worse than that. That only leaves 16% who are above average or better statistically speaking and only about 3% of all the players in the league will be able to be considered stars.

Besides it's not stars that win championships...if it were then why is Ladanian Tomlinson still searching for that ring? How about the Eagles?
Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:
wtf?

wright may be there by our pick but i highlt highly doubt it many teams have him as best WR in draft he shouldnt get outside top 20

hloyd has 0 chance of getting even outside top 25 and should go top 10

Wright may not even make it out of the Top 10, his hype has gotten pretty intense, if he knocks it out of the park at the combines teams will be on him like white on rice. A drama-free Desean Jackson essentially.
Why did I just read this entire thread?
I think it's too early to call Maclin and Britt busts. Maclin had a number of decent years before being hurt for much of this year. Before Britt got hurt he was in the process of breaking out. in the three games he played this year he had 17rec for 289yds a 17.0 ave and 3tds. If he had remained healthy he would have had monster numbers. Other than that, you made a great point, and presented it really well.
  • darum
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 35
I think you are putting way too much value in first round picks. Every year there are only a couple of guys who are expected to come in and eventually play at an all-pro level. Teams beyond the first 5-10 picks (especially at the end of the first round, where we are) arent always looking for players to come in and dominate. They want guys who can come in and contribute, get a lot of playing time, and hopefully fill a need. WR2s, CB2s or nickelbacks, rotational dlineman, etc arent glamour picks and probably wont make any probowls, but that isnt necessarily a bad thing. talent starts to thin out later in the draft, and even if you took the top 32 picks from any given draft you will never see 32 consistent probowlers.

bottom line is we can always hope for an all-pro, but if we get a guy who lasts his entire rookie contract in the league and makes contributions for us we shouldnt be too disappointed.