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first round WR - be very, very careful...

No way is Kenny Britt a bust. Guy's a top 10 receiver in the league when healthy.
Originally posted by Schulzy:
No way is Kenny Britt a bust. Guy's a top 10 receiver in the league when healthy.

yeah this thread is terrible. How is Dez Bryant a bust? He's a f**king beast on the field. How is Jonathan Baldwin a bust as a rookie receiver? Jeremy Maclin??? Percy Harvin??? Harvin is an absolute beast, and easily the Vikings' only weapon apart from Adrian Peterson.

But most of all, how is Kenny Britt a bust? He was a top 5 receiver until he got hurt.
Originally posted by Pick6:
Originally posted by SF69ers:
Originally posted by TheRatMan13:
Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Kenny Britt, Robert Meachem, Braylon Edwards are all busts?

What football are you watching?

These may not be #1 receivers, but they are all very solid receivers. Edwards was a bust this year for us, but before that he has been pretty productive. Percy Harvin is a great slot receiver when he has a QB to get him the ball. Maclin caught ten TDs last year. Demaryius Thomas looked great in the playoffs, so you cant say he is a bust for a few years at least. Dez Bryant is a beast. This argument is pretty weak if you are using these guys as your example. A few of them had injuries or bad QB play this year, but you cant base it off that.


Originally posted by Travisty13:
You have a R.O.Y., 5 probowlers, 3 all-pro WRs considered busts. Plus you consider guys that aren't even 3 years in to the league considered busts already.

Yea, I have no idea what his bust criteria is.

My criteria is production I expect for a career from a first round draft pick. How many 1000 yard season are among those I considered busts? By my quick count 4!! 4 1000 yard season from 30 players in the last 10 years. I don't know if 4 1000 yard seasons from ONE player the last 10 years is what I expect from a first round pick.

OK. If you are moving up to mid first round... or even selecting late first, which of those players has PRODUCED the type of numbers you want from that pick.
Pro Bowlers - Harvin as a returner, Edwards in his ONE great season, Roy Williams ONE time in his ONE 1000 yard season, (10 yrs one 1k season),

Help me out... Who was the ROY, and the other 3 pro bowlers... as well as the 3 all pro WR's? I assume that Braylon and Roy Williams with their ONE great season were pro bowl and all pro, so who else...

  • Percy Harvin Rookie of the Year, Pro-Bowl, All-Pro (2009)
  • Braylon Edwards Pro-Bowl, 2nd Team All-Pro (2007)
  • Koren Robinson Pro-Bowl, All-Pro (2005)
  • Roy Williams Pro-Bowl (2006)
  • Javon Walker Pro-Bowl (2004)

That's years 2004-2008 with "busts" at WR in the pro-bowl according to you.
[ Edited by Travisty13 on Feb 14, 2012 at 3:51 PM ]
Originally posted by Pick6:
Originally posted by TheRatMan13:
Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Kenny Britt, Robert Meachem, Braylon Edwards are all busts?

What football are you watching?

These may not be #1 receivers, but they are all very solid receivers. Edwards was a bust this year for us, but before that he has been pretty productive. Percy Harvin is a great slot receiver when he has a QB to get him the ball. Maclin caught ten TDs last year. Demaryius Thomas looked great in the playoffs, so you cant say he is a bust for a few years at least. Dez Bryant is a beast. This argument is pretty weak if you are using these guys as your example. A few of them had injuries or bad QB play this year, but you cant base it off that.

I said earlier ANYONE picked since 2009 still has a chance to have first round value, but IMO they haven't done it yet.
"Busts" may not be the best word, BUT which one of these players has produced like you would want your first round pick? Why would you draft a #2 or less WR in the first round? Do you want a SOLID WR or a stud with your first round pick? My point is why waste a first round pick on talent that you can get in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc...
Thomas - injuries have slowed him, but 834 yds and 6 td's in 2 years - first round production?
Bryant - He is probably going to be a stud, but 1489 and 15 in two years - no 1000 yet. he was probably the toughest call, but NO 1000 yard season.
Crabtree - come on - 625, 741 and 874 - 2, 6 and 4 tds? IS THIS WHAT YOU EXPECTED WITH THE 10th pick in the draft? (looks similar to a 6th rounder I know)
Maclin - 3 years ZERO 1000 yard seasons... was he drafted for 10 td's ONCE? he has 4 and 5 in the other two years
Harvin - 3 years ZERO 1000 yard sesons (common point) 17 tds. His PRO BOWL was as a returner... is that why he was drafted first round?
Britt - injuries have killed Britt. In three years he has 1765 (775 high in yards) 15 tds - ZERO 1000 yard seasons
Meachem - Really?? 289, 722, 638, 620 yards - 3, 9, 5, 6 tds. 4 years ZERO 1000 yard seasons.
Edwards - One great yr doesn't make him worthy IMO - One 1000 yard season in 9 years (904 and 7 is second best year) He's avged 590 yards and 4.3 TD's

This is not the type of production I want with my first round pick... if you think this is adequate for a first round pick, then obviously our expectations are far different.

AGAIN - some of these guys might end up being worth the pick, but right now IMO they haven't produced enough to warrent where they were selected.

If our first round pick turned out to be the caliber of D. Thomas, Maclin, Harvin, Britt, or Dez Bryant - I would be very happy.
Originally posted by Bay_Area_Fan:
This thread is a bust


i think this thread is screaming for aomeone to post a picture of a woman's bust
Originally posted by hofer36:
Originally posted by Bay_Area_Fan:
This thread is a bust


i think this thread is screaming for aomeone to post a picture of a woman's bust
Originally posted by Bay_Area_Fan:
This thread is a bust

  • mike
  • Veteran
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Originally posted by midrdan:
Originally posted by Pick6:
Originally posted by TheRatMan13:
Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Kenny Britt, Robert Meachem, Braylon Edwards are all busts?

What football are you watching?

These may not be #1 receivers, but they are all very solid receivers. Edwards was a bust this year for us, but before that he has been pretty productive. Percy Harvin is a great slot receiver when he has a QB to get him the ball. Maclin caught ten TDs last year. Demaryius Thomas looked great in the playoffs, so you cant say he is a bust for a few years at least. Dez Bryant is a beast. This argument is pretty weak if you are using these guys as your example. A few of them had injuries or bad QB play this year, but you cant base it off that.

I said earlier ANYONE picked since 2009 still has a chance to have first round value, but IMO they haven't done it yet.
"Busts" may not be the best word, BUT which one of these players has produced like you would want your first round pick? Why would you draft a #2 or less WR in the first round? Do you want a SOLID WR or a stud with your first round pick? My point is why waste a first round pick on talent that you can get in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc...
Thomas - injuries have slowed him, but 834 yds and 6 td's in 2 years - first round production?
Bryant - He is probably going to be a stud, but 1489 and 15 in two years - no 1000 yet. he was probably the toughest call, but NO 1000 yard season.
Crabtree - come on - 625, 741 and 874 - 2, 6 and 4 tds? IS THIS WHAT YOU EXPECTED WITH THE 10th pick in the draft? (looks similar to a 6th rounder I know)
Maclin - 3 years ZERO 1000 yard seasons... was he drafted for 10 td's ONCE? he has 4 and 5 in the other two years
Harvin - 3 years ZERO 1000 yard sesons (common point) 17 tds. His PRO BOWL was as a returner... is that why he was drafted first round?
Britt - injuries have killed Britt. In three years he has 1765 (775 high in yards) 15 tds - ZERO 1000 yard seasons
Meachem - Really?? 289, 722, 638, 620 yards - 3, 9, 5, 6 tds. 4 years ZERO 1000 yard seasons.
Edwards - One great yr doesn't make him worthy IMO - One 1000 yard season in 9 years (904 and 7 is second best year) He's avged 590 yards and 4.3 TD's

This is not the type of production I want with my first round pick... if you think this is adequate for a first round pick, then obviously our expectations are far different.

AGAIN - some of these guys might end up being worth the pick, but right now IMO they haven't produced enough to warrent where they were selected.

If our first round pick turned out to be the caliber of D. Thomas, Maclin, Harvin, Britt, or Dez Bryant - I would be very happy.

Most of those guys are too young to really see where they're going, thomas hasn't had anywhere near a 1000 yd season mostly due to injury but looks to be a solid guy. But if he continued to be a 10 game/year guy I wouldn't want him with that high of a pick. Several of those guys are actually fairly close to crabtree level, 800-900 yd guys. But again they're young and could blow up into more than that.

Most aren't extreme freaks like a calvin or fitz would be, guys that can get ten touchdowns and 1100+ yds. I think the OP's mistake was labeling solid receivers "busts", but I think what he was getting at is that you want your 1st round picks to not just get the occasional pro bowl season, but actually be considered up there with the elite top 5-10 wrs in the league. Guys like calvin but also nicks, jennings, welker, colston, solidified #1s who put up the big stats.

I see the cause for concern when it seems like the best passing teams have legit 1000+ yd receivers taken later than the 5th round while we get an 800 yd guy with foot problems in the first.
Originally posted by saj4423:
Sometimes if you want you top of the line WR you have to be like Lions and keep trying until you find you Calvin Johnson. It's a little quick to call some of those guys busts and you can do the same analysis for any position.

He said they have not lived up to expectations "at this point", he was not calling them all (or any one specifically) a bust. Certainly some of those players have a chance to get better (Dez Bryant), and some have been held back by injury (Demaryius Thomas, Kenny Britt). But just looking at that list, you can certainly see there have been FAR more hits than misses already.

at Matt Jones being drafted in the 1st round!! At the 2004 draft for us! That was the year I was hoping we'd move up to grab Sean Taylor, although I knew it would never happen. Then as I saw Steven Jackson falling, I was screaming for us to draft him! But no...we got Rashaun Woods...yay.
Let's look at this mathematically. Assuming that NFL players are normally distributed along a bell curve......

There are about 1700 players on rosters in the NFL at any given moment. These players all put together have a median level of talent, and within one standard deviation above or below that level are just about 68% of the players in the NFL. That's about 1156 players that are statistically average. That leaves about 32% of players that lay outside of "average".....only half of that number can be considered "above-average".....That's 272 players total that are above average. To place them in the "Great" category they logically must be a standard deviation above the players that are just above average. That's only about 2.5% of players in the league, or about 43 players. Once you get to four standard deviations above average you get to the very best (or very worst) players in the league. On the positive side of the curve you have your future Hall-of-Famers, but that's only about .15% of the entire league, or about 3 players.

That's why so many first rounders are considered busts by people, there are only so many players that can be considered great.
funny to see how many of the bolded receivers were on the niners at one point
Foolish thread. You can say this about any position, QB's, RB's, OT's, OG's, DE's, DT's, CB's, LB's, etc.. etc....
  • mike
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 1,827
Originally posted by boomer49er:
Let's look at this mathematically. Assuming that NFL players are normally distributed along a bell curve......

There are about 1700 players on rosters in the NFL at any given moment. These players all put together have a median level of talent, and within one standard deviation above or below that level are just about 68% of the players in the NFL. That's about 1156 players that are statistically average. That leaves about 32% of players that lay outside of "average".....only half of that number can be considered "above-average".....That's 272 players total that are above average. To place them in the "Great" category they logically must be a standard deviation above the players that are just above average. That's only about 2.5% of players in the league, or about 43 players. Once you get to four standard deviations above average you get to the very best (or very worst) players in the league. On the positive side of the curve you have your future Hall-of-Famers, but that's only about .15% of the entire league, or about 3 players.

That's why so many first rounders are considered busts by people, there are only so many players that can be considered great.
Well yeah, on a 52 man roster many of those guys make their money as backups and/or special teamers. Of course they're going to be average at best. Your stats are skewed.

Cut out everyone except for your star guys, then compare across the league your stars to everyone elses. You don't draft a 1st rounder expecting him to be a career special teamer(hi ted ginn). Last season 16 receivers had 1100+ yds, guess which teams those guys were on? Generally the ones with potent successful passing games. It might be a ying-yang thing where poor qb play means mediocre looking receivers and vice versa, but clearly you want to be one of those teams with elite playmakers surrounding their quarterbacks.
  • Kolohe
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Shoot any player drafted in the 1st round is a risk. I can't speak for everyone, but I just don't put my expectations up that high their first 2 years. My expectations of Aldon Smith was 5-7 sacks at the most.
didn't read, lol

but a lot of your bolded guys are guys I'd love to have. Dez Bryant? Demariyus Thomas? etc.
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